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Lagrangian trajectories of water parcels reconstructed using the TRACMASS model from three-dimensional velocity fields by the RCO model for 1965–2004 are used to analyse the temporal scales and the probability for the hits to the nearshore by pollution originating from a major fairway in the Gulf of Finland and transported by surface currents. Increasing the simulation length from 10 to 20 days induces a linear increase in particle age, but the pattern of nearshore hits remains the same. A reasonable benefit can be reached by relatively small shifts of certain parts of the present fairway in a few locations. The overall probabilities do not reveal any trend for 1965–2004. The largest changes in the nearshore hits are revealed for the proportion of hits to the opposite nearshore areas. This feature probably reflects an abrupt turn of the geostrophic air-flow over the southern Baltic Sea by ~ 40° since 1987. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Global set of trajectories of satellite-tracked Lagrangian drifters is used to study the dynamics of marine debris. A probabilistic model is developed to eliminate the bias in spatial distribution of drifter data due to heterogeneous deployments. Model experiments, simulating long-term evolution of initially homogeneous drifter array, reveal five main sites of drifter aggregation, located in the subtropics and maintained by converging Ekman currents. The paper characterizes the geography and structure of the collection regions and discusses factors that determine their dynamics. A new scale Rc =(4k/|D|)1/2 is introduced to characterize tracer distribution under competing effects of horizontal divergence D and diffusion k. Existence and locations of all five accumulation zones have been recently confirmed by direct measurements of microplastic at the sea surface. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Whatever its origin is, a floating particle at the sea surface is advected by ocean currents. Surface currents could be derived from in situ observations or combined with satellite data. For a better resolution in time and space, we use satellite-derived sea-surface height and wind stress fields with a 1/3° grid from 1993 to 2001 to determine the surface circulation of the South Pacific Ocean. Surface currents are then used to compute the Lagrangian trajectories of floating debris. Results show an accumulation of the debris in the eastern-centre region of the South Pacific subtropical gyre ([120°W; 80°W]–[20°S; 40°S]), resulting from a three-step process: in the first two years, mostly forced by Ekman drift, the debris drift towards the tropical convergence zone (∼30°S). Then they are advected eastward mostly forced by geostrophic currents. They finally reach the eastern-centre region of the South Pacific subtropical gyre from where they could not escape. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A main conclusion following the oil spill from the Prestige tanker was that improvements in ocean circulation models were necessary; this was in order to predict, more accurately, the trajectories followed by the oil slicks and hence assist in fight against oil pollution operations. In this contribution, the results of the validation of a semi-empirical ocean circulation model, parameterised for the Bay of Biscay and forced with operational oceano-meteorological remote sensing observations, are shown. The model results have been validated with observations from drifting buoys, deployed in the Bay of Biscay during the crisis. The results show that the model explains a relatively large percentage of the current variability. The comparisons between the real and the estimated drifter trajectories indicate that for 3, 5 and 7 day-long trajectories, the drifter position is estimated with errors of approximately 23, 35 and 46km, respectively. The model reproduces relatively well the trajectory followed by the drifter with the shortest period (23 days). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]