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Effective risk management provides a solid basis for decisionmaking in projects, bringing important benefits. While the financial and economical crisis is present at the global level and the competition in the market is more and more aggressive, the interest in project risk management increases. The paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of two quantitative risk analysis methods, Monte Carlo simulation and the Three Scenario approach. Two experiments are designed based on real projects, in order to compare the effectiveness of these methods. The conclusions of the comparative analysis are that Three Scenario approach, even if is not as accurate as Monte Carlo, assures the results stability, if the same shape of the probability distribution curve is considered. The Three Scenario approach is easy to be applied in practice and requires a shorter computation time than Monte Carlo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financial crisis arisen during the fall of 2008 (possibly with a new restart, worldwide, in 2012), as predictable as it may have been, it has actually surprised most markets and economic actors, certain industries facing serious liquidity problems and a significant decrease in demand. In difficult economic contexts, most actors on the market reacted by enforcing two broad types of measures: cost reduction and enhanced barriers to market entry for new competitors, according to Porter's model. These entry barriers are usually visible through an increase of the number of mergers and acquisitions. Many of these actions had not necessarily been predicted, which made some theorists of the management literature to speak of anachronism with regard to the classic strategic thinking of markets (Kotler, Caslione, 2009). As widely known, the core of managerial actions is classically constituted from mediumterm planning, usually for three-year periods. However, in circumstances of economic turbulences, even chaos, the traditional strategic three-year plan is anachronic and valueless, which impacts all the organizational levels and may take to apparently unexpected evolutions in the practice of company management and organization, just as we shall further show, in an attempt of the authors of this paper to rethink the place of negotiation as a distinct organizational function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]