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Abstract Background Malaria risk maps are crucial for controlling and eliminating malaria by identifying areas of varying transmission risk. In the Greater Mekong Subregion, these maps guide interventions and resource allocation. This article focuses on analysing changes in malaria transmission and developing fine-scale risk maps using five years of routine surveillance data in Laos (2017–2021). The study employed data from 1160 geolocated health facilities in Laos, along with high-resolution environmental data. Methods A Bayesian geostatistical framework incorporating population data and treatment-seeking propensity was developed. The models incorporated static and dynamic factors and accounted for spatial heterogeneity. Results Results showed a significant decline in malaria cases in Laos over the five-year period and a shift in transmission patterns. While the north became malaria-free, the south experienced ongoing transmission with sporadic outbreaks. Conclusion The risk maps provided insights into changing transmission patterns and supported risk stratification. These risk maps are valuable tools for malaria control in Laos, aiding resource allocation, identifying intervention gaps, and raising public awareness. The study enhances understanding of malaria transmission dynamics and facilitates evidence-based decision-making for targeted interventions in high-risk areas.

Abstract Background An estimated 50% of suspected malaria cases in sub-Saharan Africa first seek care in the private sector, especially in private medicine retail outlets. Quality of care in these outlets is generally unknown but considered poor with many patients not receiving a confirmatory diagnosis or the recommended first-line artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). In 2010, a subsidy pilot scheme, the Affordable Medicines Facility malaria, was introduced to crowd out the use of monotherapies in favour of WHO-pre-qualified artemisinin-based combinations (WHO-PQ-ACTs) in the private health sector. The scheme improved the availability, market share, and cost of WHO-PQ-ACTs in countries like Nigeria and Uganda, but in 2018, the subsidies were halted in Nigeria and significantly reduced in Uganda. This paper presents findings from six retail audit surveys conducted from 2014 to 2021 in Nigeria and Uganda to assess whether the impact of subsidies on the price, availability, and market share of artemisinin-based combinations has been sustained after the subsidies were reduced or discontinued. Methods Six independent retail audits were conducted in private medicine retail outlets, including pharmacies, drug shops, and clinics in Nigeria (2016, 2018, 2021), and Uganda (2014, 2019, 2020) to assess the availability, price, and market share of anti-malarials, including WHO-PQ-ACTs and non-WHO-PQ-ACTs, and malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Results Between 2016 and 2021, there was a 57% decrease in WHO-PQ-ACT availability in Nigeria and a 9% decrease in Uganda. During the same period, non-WHO-PQ-ACT availability increased in Nigeria by 41% and by 34% in Uganda. The price of WHO-PQ-ACTs increased by 42% in Nigeria to $0.68 and increased in Uganda by 24% to $0.95. The price of non-WHO-PQ-ACTs decreased in Nigeria by 26% to $1.08 and decreased in Uganda by 64% to $1.23. There was a 76% decrease in the market share of WHO-PQ-ACTs in Nigeria and a 17% decrease in Uganda. Malaria RDT availability remained low throughout. Conclusion With the reduction or termination of subsidies for WHO-PQ-ACTs in Uganda and Nigeria, retail prices have increased, and retail prices of non-WHO-PQ-ACTs decreased, likely contributing to a shift of higher availability and increased use of non-WHO-PQ-ACTs.

Abstract Background For a country such as South Africa which is targeting malaria elimination, mobile and migrant populations pose a substantial risk to importation of malaria parasites. It has been hypothesized that halting cross-border movement of mobile and migrant populations will decrease the importation of malaria, however this option is not a politically, operationally, and financially viable prospect. It has social impacts as well, since families live on either side of the border and preventing travel will challenge family ties. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and closure of ports of entry (land and air) for non-essential travel into South Africa, a unique opportunity arose to test the hypothesis. Methodology An interrupted time series analysis was done to assess whether the post-lockdown trends (April–December 2020) in monthly reported imported and local cases differed from the pre-lockdown trends (January 2015–March 2020). The analysis was conducted separately for KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo provinces. Results On average, imported cases were lower in the post-intervention period in all three provinces, and local cases were lower in Mpumalanga and Limpopo, though no results were statistically significant. Conclusion Since population movement continued after the travel restrictions were lifted, border screening with testing and treating should be considered for reducing parasite movement. Another option is reducing malaria cases at the source in neighbouring countries by implementing proven, effective vector and parasite control strategies and through a downstream effect reduce malaria entering South Africa.

Abstract Background Ayeyarwady Region in Myanmar has made significant progress towards malaria elimination, with cases decreasing from 12,312 in 2015 to 122 in 2019. As transmission declines, malaria becomes increasingly focalized both in geographic hotspots and among population groups sharing certain risk factors. Developing a thorough profile of high-risk activities associated with malaria infections is critical to ensure intervention approaches are evidence-based. Methods A test-negative study was conducted from September 2017 to May 2018 in Ngaputaw, Pathein and Thabaung townships in Ayeyarwady Region. Patients that presented to selected public facilities or community health volunteers with fever answered survey questions on demographic and behavioural risk factors, including exposure to malaria interventions, and were assigned to case and control groups based on the result of a malaria rapid diagnostic test. A random-effects logistic regression model adjusted for clustering at the facility level, as well as any variables along the causal pathway described by a directed acyclic graph, was used to determine odds ratios and association with malaria infections. Results A total of 119 cases and 1744 controls were recruited from 41 public facilities, with a mean age of 31.3 and 63.7% male. Higher risk groups were identified as males (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2–2.9) and those with a worksite located within the forest (aOR 2.8, 95% CI 1.4–5.3), specifically working in the logging (aOR 2.7, 95% CI 1.5–4.6) and rubber plantation (aOR 3.0, 95% CI 1.4–6.8) industries. Additionally, links between forest travel and malaria were observed, with risk factors identified to be sleeping in the forest within the past month (aOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.1–6.3), and extended forest travel with durations from 3 to 14 days (aOR 8.6, 95% CI 3.5–21.4) or longer periods (aOR 8.4, 95% CI 3.2–21.6). Conclusion Malaria transmission is highly focalized in Ayeyarwady, and results illustrate the need to target interventions to the most at-risk populations of working males and forest goers. It will become increasingly necessary to ensure full intervention coverage of at-risk populations active in forested areas as Myanmar moves closer to malaria elimination goals.