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Highlights • Investor can achieve its maximum interest through incentive coordination in REDD+. • Landholders will not suffer any losses after incentive coordination in REDD+. • Incentive-coordinated contracts can improve the efforts to reduce emissions. • Landholder with better capability is more likely to improve its efforts in REDD+. • Incentive coordination is interpreted as a techne of neoliberal environmentality. Abstract The complexity and profound spatial effects of incentives in the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) contracts make them an ideal case for applying neoliberal environmentality theory, as they provide a special lens to closely observe how incentive coordination, as a techne of neoliberal environmentality, shapes individual behavior in reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation. This paper introduces some political and economic arguments related to the issue of incentive coordination in REDD+ contracts from the perspective of neoliberal environmentality. According to the efforts of landholders to reduce emissions, this paper conducts a game model of payments for ecosystem services to describe the dynamic interaction behavior between an investor and several landholders in the current REDD+ contract and an incentive-coordinated REDD+ contract. In the theoretical framework, the effects of incentive coordination on the landholders' efforts to reduce emissions are analyzed. A numerical simulation is adopt to examine the changes in the efforts of landholders to reduce emissions and in the benefits of stakeholders under two REDD+ contracts. The results demonstrate the following: First, the investor can maximize benefits without losing the landholders' interests via designing incentive-coordinated REDD+ contracts. Second, extra incentives can improve landholders' efforts to reduce emissions, which contributes to achieving the goal of the REDD+ scheme. Third, landholders with stronger capabilities are more likely to reduce emissions, thus receiving more extra incentives. Incentive coordination has become a neoliberal environmentality; it can impact a landholder's use of forest resources by changing the benefits of reducing emissions in the REDD+ scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outcomes of forest management (FM) as implemented by industrial logging corporations in tropical forests is an issue that merits greater scrutiny than it has received thus far. We, therefore, welcome the contribution by Karsenty et al. (2017) that questions some of the findings advanced in our article (Brandt et al., 2016). Our paper used satellite-derived deforestation data and statistical matching techniques to examine patterns of deforestation and timber production in the Republic of Congo after the implementation of FM plans in timber concessions. We found that a) deforestation rates were higher in concessions that had a registered forest management plan (FMP) compared to those that did not ; b) deforestation rates increased after a concession adopted a FMP; and c) timber production was higher and more stable in concessions that adopted a FMP than in concessions that did not. In their response, Karsenty et al. (2017) question our analytical approach and advocate for different evaluative criteria. While their response offers new and potentially valuable perspectives, it also criticizes our paper for errors our paper does not contain, and suggests we should have carried out analyses that we already did. In this rejoinder, we discuss the extent to which we consider their arguments relevant, valid, and worthy of further study. We note that neither Karsenty et al. (2017), nor any other peer-reviewed article that we know of, provide empirical results that contradict the findings of our original article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complexity and deeply spatial effects of incentives in REDD+ make it a good case study for the application of governmentality theory, as it provides a special perspective to observe how REDD+ incentives shape individual conduct. This paper describes political and economic arguments related to incentives associated with the REDD+ mechanism from the perspective of governmentality. This paper conducts a theoretical analysis of policymaker, landholder, and developer strategies under different market power structures. The goal is to explore the optimal incentives and efforts for REDD+ through two-stage game models. A numerical simulation is applied to examine the effects of changing the parameters associated with each stakeholder’s strategies. The results demonstrate the following. First, the conduct of landholders and developers in reducing carbon emissions is unrelated to the market power they own. Policymakers need to consider market power structures when designing REDD+ incentives. Second, policymakers need to consider multiple factors to design heterogeneous REDD+ incentives under different market power structures. These factors include the price of carbon emission credits, opportunity costs, output elasticity of effort, cost coefficients and total factor productivity. Third, variations in compensation payments do not affect landholder and developer efforts to reduce carbon emissions, but would affect the REDD+ incentive design. Finally, REDD+ incentives have become hybrid neoliberal governmentality; they are consistent with the characteristics of neoliberalism, but are also instruments for serving state policy goals. All these factors need to be considered in designing future REDD+ incentives that achieve an incentive-compatible REDD+ mechanism and realize appropriate governance in forest conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Linking weak governance and forest degradation has received increasing attention in scientific and political spheres. Deforestation remains a global matter as a major agent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, for endangering the lives of several plant and animal species, and for triggering political disputes involving land tenure and rural violence. Political factors are acknowledged to have a direct impact on forest resources management. Corruption and weak governance are able to deflect policies to private interests, and encourage illegal logging and unlawful allowances to forest degradation even in protected areas. However, the effects of corruption and weak institutions in forest management are still uncertain. This paper offers empirical-based evidence about the relationship between institutional factors and forest cover conversion. The role of weak institutions is explored by employing a logistic model of recent high-resolution global remote sensing data from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (CCI-LC) from 1992 and 2015. We assess the cross-country associations of the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) and the World Bank Government Effectiveness (GE) index while controlling for physiographic and structural variables. Results are robust and show, as expected, that difficult access areas pose considerable barriers to forest conversion, and regions of high agricultural suitability are more likely to be converted from forests to agricultural fields. Furthermore, higher government effectiveness with stronger political enforcement, policy design, and lower corruption perception are significantly related to a lower probability of deforestation. Further elaborating governance and corruption indicators with emphasis on forest management/conservation can potentially improve the accuracy of local and cross-country quantitative land use studies. Our findings support the continuous understanding of weak institutions in deforestation debates. The paper highlights the need to fight corruption and to build strong institutions into effective policy strategies. • The study exams the cross-country relationship of institutional indices and high-resolution forest conversion. • Higher government effectiveness and lower corruption perception are significantly related to lower deforestation. • Institutional effects remain consistent when testing for country groups, various sampling sizes and replications. • Results point to the need to strengthening the fight against corruption within forestry conservation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we employ for the first time a Bayesian process-tracing approach to assess the role of different interventions designed to halt deforestation. We applied the methodology to six initiatives implemented between 2006 and 2019 in the municipality of São Felix do Xingu, namely: (i) institution of protected areas, (ii) environmental monitoring and enforcement, (iii) credit restrictions, (iv) commodity agreements, (v) multi-stakeholder processes, and (vi) value chain projects. Bayesian process tracing is an alternative to traditional counterfactual approaches that allows the gleaning of in-depth insights into 'causal chain' mechanisms and complex interrelationships in individual cases, rather than identifying common or cross-cutting features across different cases. Contrary to traditional process-tracing methodologies, the Bayesian approach provides analytical transparency and replicability through a formal and fine-grained assessment of the strength of the evidence. We assessed 31 individual pieces of evidence, developed using data collected through a variety of quantitative and qualitative methods. We grouped these into interventions spanning three periods of time and traced the causal mechanisms linked to their success or failure. In total, we developed nine theory components. Our results reveal that we are practically certain that four theory components are true. We are also reasonably certain or highly confident that four other theory components are true, and only cautiously confident that one component is true. Drawing on the nine components, we offer a composite theory explaining deforestation outcomes. Our findings provide four implications for global debates. Namely, they provide a strong case for the importance of conceptually distinguishing: the types of actors targeted (e.g., smallholder or medium-to-large landholders) and the frontier status (i.e., whether interventions take place in active frontiers or in consolidated areas). They also prove that interventions may be well implemented for a certain period but can lose effectiveness over time. Finally, our findings call attention to synergies among interventions, and in particular to the combination of regulatory interventions to halt frontier expansion with market-based approaches to incentivize non-deforestation behaviour. • Effectiveness of interventions to halt deforestation is not constant over time. • Effectiveness depends on whether interventions take place in active frontiers or in consolidated areas. • Effectiveness also depends on whether interventions target smallholder or medium-to-large landholders. • Greater effectiveness is achieved through the combination of regulatory interventions with market-based approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest conversion for farming remains an issue of scientific and societal concern due to its growing impacts on biodiversity and climate change. Therefore, scientists and policymakers emphasise the urgent need to find a balance between forest conservation and agriculture. Meanwhile, across tropical Africa, subsistence farmers account for nearly two-thirds of forest conversion to farms annually. These farmers' perceptions and experiences about forest conversion may offer alternative perspectives about the problem and how to tackle it. However, such viewpoints remain scanty in the sustainable forestry literature. This paper employs narrative policy analysis to disentangle the stories that underpin farming by forest-fringe communities (FFCs) in protected forests. The FFCs' narratives were identified through fieldwork in 12 forest communities of Southwestern Ghana and juxtaposed with forest regulators and cocoa sector actors' narrativization of forest conversion in Ghana. The results indicate that a combination of factors incite FFCs to farm in protected forests, but the perceived need to respond to food insecurity is the most crucial factor. In the absence of strong grassroots organisations, FFCs cannot convey this crucial need to the forest policy arena, leaving it largely unaddressed in forest policy. Thus, forest encroachment has become a tool for FFCs to resist forest conservation, and generally, as a means for their survival. The paper proposes food security corridors (FSCs) as an integrated landscape management option that can enable FFCs and other policy actors to negotiate and institute food security and conservation goalswithin communities trapped in blocks of forest reserves. The potential FSCs hold to overcome forest conversion for subsistence farming can be unleashed when governments, development partners invest to refine and pilot the concept. Overall, the paper contributes to the land-use conflict literature, showing how context-specific food insecurity can accelerate deforestation. Forestry sector actors need to guard against oversimplifying their assumptions about forest conversion in order to find pragmatic and sustainable solutions to the problem. • Smallholder farmers account for about 65% of forest conversion to farmlands in tropical Africa. • The experiences of these farmers have often been neglected in forest policy formulation. • Disentangling the farmers' narratives show food insecurity is most crucial reason why they farm in protected forests. • Food security corridors offer an opportunity to produce food permanently in forest-fringe communities. • Governments and development agencies need to invest to refine and pilot FSCs in communites trapped by protected forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Does economic development result in tree cover loss for poor countries, but not so for already more developed countries? Using a new subnational dataset and employing a quasi-experimental method, this paper addresses this question using tree cover loss data for 14 contiguous countries. The analysis uses geographical regression discontinuity (using national borders as discontinuities) and our findings show that Sub-Saharan Africa and low-income countries in general have the highest development-deforestation elasticity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Assessed governance quality of Nepal, Bhutan, India and Myanmar at three levels. • Myanmar has the highest total score followed by Nepal, India and Bhutan. • "Resources" received the lowest score, whereas "Durability" received the highest. • CBFMS has the ability to solve problems and ensure its sustainability. • Apply the highest-ranked four or five indicators across the whole country. Abstract Community-based forest management systems (CBFMS) are becoming increasingly popular in developing countries where 31% of the total forest is either managed or owned by the community. This paper presents the results of a four-country study conducted in 2017 in Nepal, Bhutan, India and Myanmar concerning the governance quality of CBFMS. The introduction outlines the global threat to forests, the contribution that forest-based emissions make to climate change, and the policy response of the international and national communities including REDD +. The next section provides a snapshot of CBFMS in the four case study countries, and is followed by an account of the methodology, approach, framework of analysis and sampling surveys undertaken during the course of, and informing, the research. The results of the surveys revealed that perceptions of governance quality, as well as governance priorities, varied between the countries, and also at the three levels of government (national, sub-national and local) within a country. For example, Myanmar and Bhutan had very high governance ratings from local levels compared to other levels, whereas, Nepal and India had similar ratings for all levels. Further, regarding the prioritisation of different indicators, Myanmar gave highest priority to "inclusiveness" at the local level but "democracy" at the national level. The reasons for the similarities and differences between and within these countries and the possible implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Results denotes high extent of competition with respect to land use between mitigation options. • The net effect of transaction costs is small and may not represent a critical impediment. • The simulated REDD+ incentive shows how it might positively affect land use in developing countries. Abstract This paper develops an econometric model to estimate the economic determinants of forest land conversion in Esmeraldas, Ecuador and evaluates the effect that transaction costs have on incentive-based climate change mitigation activities. Using a logistic share model, the results show a high extent of competition for the use of land between agricultural production for palm oil processing and land-based carbon mitigation through avoided emissions from deforestation. Our results show that the current policy of introducing conservation payments in Ecuador is not sufficient to significantly reduce deforestation, but that payment levels based on a plausible international carbon price would make an appreciable difference in the net sequestration contribution of forests in northern Ecuador. Knowledge generated from this research can inform site-specific land use policy design aimed at addressing the opportunity costs of tropical forest conservation as an important component of climate mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Deforestation captures most of the headlines, but there are also processes of forest expansion that are widespread in Latin America. This paper explores why this process is so invisible. Globalization plays an increasingly important role in structuring rural economies. This paper analyses how global integration of many types, ranging from remittances, state transfers, skilling and markets produced forest recovery in peasant landscapes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The side effect of the expansion of agricultural activities in the Brazilian Cerrado resulted in a loss of its native vegetation, biodiversity decline, and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Recent expansion has mainly occurred in the northern Cerrado, a region known as MATOPIBA, which is the latest agricultural frontier in Brazil and is largely cultivated for agricultural commodities. In this paper, we investigate the spatiotemporal behaviour of Cerrado vegetation and agricultural areas in the Cerrado – MATOPIBA (CM) region between 1990 and 2017. Moreover, we analyse the planted area expansion of soybean and other important crops for the region and their productivity, and examine how pasturelands have changed over time. We also present a map of private rural lands and analyse whether they comply with the national Forest Code (FC) regarding in-farm areas of natural vegetation that ought to be preserved by law. Finally, we estimate how much of the current deforestation rates could be avoided in the CM region if the Soy Moratorium (SoyM) or the FC are implemented. Results show a loss of almost 8.4 Mha of the Cerrado vegetation in the study area and an expansion of 4.3 Mha of agricultural lands between 1990 and 2017. Our analysis indicates that soybean planted areas expanded by 326% between 2000 and 2017 and that soybean average productivity increased from 2483 kg/ha in 2000 to2906 kg/ha in 2017. In addition to soybean, other crops also contributed to the agribusiness economy in the CM region, with corn being the crop with the greatest expansion of planted areas over the same period (643,443 ha), and cotton the cultivation with the highest increase in productivity (from 2300 kg/ha to 3822 kg/ha) in these 17 analysed years. Pasturelands expanded from 6.4 Mha in 2000 9.8 Mha in 2017. In 2018, private rural properties consisted of only 7188 large properties and occupied 19.5 Mha, whereas small and medium properties accounted for 136,586 farms and covered a total of only 17.5 Mha. With respect to the national FC, the deficit of preservation areas in the CM region, in relation to the agricultural area of each municipality, totalled almost 1.4 Mha in 2017, with large properties responsible for 57% of this deficit. Looking at the policies and mechanisms to protect the native vegetation of the CM region, we have that 17,219,250 ha can still be deforested on the rural properties in this region; and, if the SoyM was expanded to the Cerrado – MATOPIBA region, almost 900,000 ha covered by native vegetation on the categories of farms selected would have been prevented to be converted to soybeans since 2010. The findings from this paper provide a comprehensive understanding of the land use and land cover changes and of the Cerrado deforestation patterns in the CM region for the last decades, and gather information on conservation policies in place to suggest improvements. Several datasets were combined, mainly focus on quantitative analysis, to investigate the geospatial dynamics of natural and agribusiness areas in the study region, and suggest the need to reinforce the preservation of Cerrado native vegetation areas, particularly those that are liable to be legally deforested. • There are 21.5 Mha of native vegetation covering private rural properties. • 17.2 Mha of these vegetation areas can be legally deforested. • Legal mechanisms are not strong enough in the study region, as 4.3 Mha of native vegetation is liable to be legally deforested. • Agricultural areas expanded by 645% in the CM region between 1990 and 2017. • In 2020, the CM region was responsible for 64% of the Cerrado's deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper analyzes the influence that both policies and markets have on driving forest conversion to agricultural land use focusing on the Bolivian case. It assesses the effects that two models of economic development have had on prompting agricultural expansion, and hence deforestation in lowland Bolivia. The first model, of economic diversification and import substitution, initiated in the early 1950s, stimulated the occupation of forestlands for agricultural expansion through colonization, and incentives to developing a medium and large-scale agriculture. The second model of development, initiated in the mid-1980s, prompted by structural adjustment policies, led to an intense process of agrarian change in the lowlands, mainly by connecting the agricultural frontier to the international market of commodities, particularly soybeans. The move from an import substitution industrialization model to another based on economic liberalization, even though it had positive implications on stimulating agricultural growth, has led to accelerate the pace of deforestation in lowland Bolivia, which has a larger contribution of medium and large-scale agriculture. This paper moves forward the debate about deforestation in Bolivia by making explicit connections between some analytical assessments on land-use/cover change and empirical evidences about forest removal in a five-decades period. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper advances an empirical model assessing how changing economic and ecological conditions at different spatial scales affect land conversion decisions. We apply a multilevel econometric model to explore the implications for parameter estimates and their standard errors of ignoring hierarchical groupings in the data. The paper draws on a panel of agricultural-household data collected from a survey of Mexican farmers. A comparison of results obtained from a standard single level model reveals several stark distinctions in the estimated effects, some of which have immediate relevance for conservation policy. We conclude that the multilevel specification is warranted for alleviating issues associated with error structures inherent to spatial data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

There is an urgent need to increase agricultural production in order to meet increasing food demands driven in part by population growth and changing dietary preferences. Doing so by expanding area cultivated into forests has important environmental consequences, including engendering climate change. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is considered an important option to increase agricultural productivity and resilience, intensify agricultural production, and possibly reduce cropland expansion. This paper uses nationally representative survey data to assess the extent, intensity and drivers of cropland expansion, and applies an instrumental variable approach to determine the extent to which CSA reduced cropland expansion in Zambia. We find that one-fifth of the 7241 farm households surveyed in 2019 expanded cropland between the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 farming seasons, clearing on average 0.18 ha, but only 13% expanded their cropland into intact forests, clearing an average of 0.09 ha of forestland per household per year. In aggregate, cropland expansion by smallholder into forests represents about 60% of the estimated 250,000 ha of forests lost per year in Zambia. Most households expanded cropland because they needed to meet subsistence food requirements and a few others in response to market opportunities. We did not find statistically significant associations between adopting CSA and cropland expansion in our national sample. Thus, given the low extent and intensity of CSA adoption as defined in this paper, relying only on CSA as a means to spare forests may be risky. These findings have important implications on CSA practice definition, promotion, framing and adoption. • We use large household survey data to assess whether climate-smart agriculture (CSA) reduces cropland expansion in Zambia. • About 13% of the smallholders in Zambia expanded cropland into forests, clearing an average of 0.10ha of forestland. • Cropland expansion by smallholders account for 60% of the 250,000 ha of forests lost per year, on average. • We did not find significant correlations between adopting CSA and cropland expansion in our national sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After forest governance reforms by the Brazilian government, Amazon deforestation rates dropped by almost 80% between 2004 and 2012. Since then, however, deforestation has slowly increased again, casting doubts on the long-term sustainability of past conservation policy achievements. Clearly, deforestation rates and the associated local drivers of land-use and land-cover change differ considerably across the region, and adapting public policies to dynamic local contexts and actor constellations remains a major challenge for decision-makers. This paper seeks to contribute to the related science-policy debate by applying frontier theory insights to map, quantify, and compare land-cover dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004 and 2015. Our theoretical framework performs well in explaining broad variations in scope, nature, and agents of land-use and land-cover change across different frontier regions. We observe two types of transformative processes at deforestation frontiers in the Amazonian context. First, recent frontier development is characterized by an intensification of cattle ranching, and an increasing share of agricultural activities in the production portfolio, which could be the result of better access to modern technologies and markets, combined with forest governance induced scarcity of land for expansion of historically dominant extensive pasture systems. Second, the share of medium and large-scale deforestation declines at first, but rebounds during the observation period in all frontier types after 2012. Further research is needed to better understand the role of the changing political environment in driving these medium and short-term transformations in land-use and land-cover change. Furthermore, policy-makers, international cooperation, and civil society must seek strong integration between value chain based governance measures and effective environmental law enforcement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have witnessed an increasing interest in land-based investments for food, feed, fuel, and fibre, driven by the volatility in commodity prices, economic growth of emerging economies, policy drivers of biofuel demand, and investor strategies in the wake of the global economic crisis. This interest has led to a surge of foreign and local investments in developing countries, where land can be obtained at a lower cost, and it has led to fears of land grabbing. In this paper, we consider the problem of identifying the determinants of large-scale land acquisitions in Africa and employ a unilateral beta regression to explore the link between investments and a number of indicators related to both land supply and institutional features. The results on the resource-seeking nature of investments and the impact of the land governance indicators are mostly in line with the findings of other studies. On the contrary, the results on forest land being a driver for large-scale land acquisitions, especially from international investors in Africa, differ from previous findings and indicate commercial pressure on African forests that may lead to accelerating degradation and deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of this study was to analyse topics of research, scientific production, collaboration among countries, and most cited papers on deforestation through a bibliometric and social network study of articles found in the Web of Science database. The most productive subject areas corresponded to Environmental Sciences, Ecology and Environmental Studies. The articles were published in 458 different journals. A total of 2051 research articles were obtained. The main challenges identified for deforestation include “land use change”, “conservation”, “climate change”, “rain forest” and “reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation”. Social and economic topics are understudied. An important level of international collaboration has been identified, including the triangle of the United States, Brazil and the European Union, as well as others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amazon forest in the state of Maranhão ensures ecosystem services that directly and indirectly affect the life quality of its population and economy, via hydrologic and climatic regulation, among other benefits. Currently, only 25% of the original forest cover (24.7 thousand km 2 ) remains while illegal deforestation persists in a violent process that provokes visible social, economic and environmental harm. Simultaneously, Maranhão has seen record levels of burning, faces a water shortage and fights against the worst social and economic indicators in the country. Conversely, secondary vegetation covers 19.9 thousand km 2 (27% of deforested area) and is completely unprotected. Contrary to the international commitments assumed by Brazil to combat deforestation and restore forests, some of the political representatives of Maranhão have sought legal mechanisms to further diminish forest cover in public and private areas. To promote the conservation and restoration of Maranhão Amazon Forest, a multi-institutional network of researchers was established in 2015. This viewpoint paper aims to draw attention to this endangered region of the Brazilian Amazon and give science-oriented recommendations to policy makers in order to avoid more setbacks. We argue that Maranhão state must urgently establish a policy of Zero Deforestation, protect secondary forests and comply with the national forest restoration policy, thus ensuring long-term economic sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the role of trade liberalization and agricultural intensification in mitigating climate change cause and effects on land use and emissions using a computable general equilibrium model. Our results indicate that cropland expansion triggered by climate-induced crop productivity changes results in deforestation and increases emissions in South Asia and globally. Global full trade liberalization on all goods is the optimum policy for South Asia despite significant global deforestation, but for the world, unilateral partial trade liberalization on all goods is a more appropriate policy while ensuring a considerable emissions reduction for South Asia. These results indicate that mitigation responses to climate change are location specific and no one trade policy is suitable at the regional and global levels. Lastly, agricultural intensification by improving productivity growth is the best strategy in land-based emissions mitigation, thereby avoiding the transformation of forest and pasture lands for agricultural cultivation both at regional and global levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between human welfare and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazonia has traditionally been thought to follow a boom-and-bust pattern. According to this pattern, forest clearing triggers rapid increases in human welfare levels (“the boom”) due to short-term economic gains; these levels then drop to below national or regional averages (“the bust”) after the forest stocks have declined, thus causing the local populations to become deprived of ecosystem services. However, recent studies have questioned the validity of this boom-and-bust pattern. In this paper, we use panel data and simultaneous autoregressive models to evaluate the effects of deforestation, urbanization, public investments, agriculture, and state policies on temporal changes in human welfare that occurred across multiple municipalities in the Brazilian Amazonia from 2005 to 2012, a period during which governments implemented a set of strategies aimed at controlling deforestation across the region. We found that: (a) signals of a boom-and-bust pattern are weak at the regional level, and therefore this pattern cannot be generalized across the entire region; (b) human welfare is increasing more rapidly in low-development municipalities than in high-development cities, and all municipalities are converging on at least one regional average rather than on a national average; (c) urbanization does not lead to positive changes in human welfare, which indicates that the infrastructure available in regional urban centers is limited; (d) public investments are negatively associated with human welfare growth, thus signifying that if public investments are not used to leverage the potential of other sectors of the local economy, human welfare will not improve; (e) agriculture is negatively associated with positive changes in human welfare at the local level, possibly due to the dominance of cattle-ranching as the predominant economic activity of this sector; and (f) state-level policies matter, and future analyses of regional trends in the realm of development and conservation across this region should take such policies into account. Finally, we suggest that although human welfare and deforestation retain a weak statistical relationship, we cannot contend that they have been fully decoupled. Forest loss across the region is still pervasive, and institutions are too weak to sustain the transition from a frontier development model to a conservation-centered model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This viewpoint paper presents a reaction to the article by Brandt et al. (2016) . It highlights the complexities inherent to the attribution of deforestation impacts to policy interventions when using remote-sensing data. This critique argues that in the context of the Congo a suite of factors (i.e., population density in particular) other than those considered by Brandt et al. (e.g., type of forest, distance from roads and markets) play essential roles in determining the fates of forests. It also contends that care is needed when making decisions regarding which units will be included in the comparison group so that contextual factors and on-the-ground information are properly considered (e.g., when logging operations are inactive or when a concession is used for ‘conservation’ purposes). Finally, it proposes that a focus on an analysis of deforestation rates for a given level of timber production might be a metric that more accurately represents one aspect of the consequences of forest management, which should also consider the appraisal of trade-offs associated with a larger set of social, financial and ecological objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 1990s, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) suffered from severe food shortages and large-scale deforestation, which triggered a stage of rural conservation reform. Since 2004, with support from the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), North Korea’s Ministry of Land and Environmental Protection (MoLEP) has implemented a Sloping Land Management Program (SLMP). The SLMP established sloping land user groups and granted these groups the right to use marginal land for agroforestry development. This devolution of land rights from state control onto local groups is a landmark in North Korea, and this decentralization initiative has now expanded to over eight counties to involve thousands of households. It has also led to the launch of a National Agroforestry Policy and Strategy. Drawing from both qualitative and quantitative data collected from 2008 to 2014, this paper documents the process and effects of the SLMP. It argues that the decentralization reform in land management has contributed to not only food security with increased food crop diversity and productivity, but also notably forest recovery through an expansion of tree plantations and agroforestry practices on degraded sloping lands. However, an insufficient power transfer in the form of a lack of timber rights granted to the local user groups has hampered the effectiveness of the SLMP. There are also institutional and geopolitical challenges that are limiting further scaling-up of land-use decentralization across the country. The policy implication calls for more international investment as well as national land-use policy reforms in order to promote and facilitate further decentralization of sloping land management and to secure greater use rights for sloping land user groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land is a scarce resource affecting the implementation of many sectoral policies. In Indonesia, the expansion of palm oil plantations has led to non-sustainable land use practices in past years, particularly deforestation. More recently, the government has set ambitious targets for the adoption of biodiesel which will require expansion of oil palm plantations, thus putting further pressure on land. Meanwhile, the need to guarantee food supply, forest conservation and climate change mitigation also imply challenges when it comes to land allocation and use. This paper examines the role that land plays in the implementation of sectoral policies in Indonesia, exploring the availability of land to satisfy the multiple goals defined in national policies. We explore land competition resulting from allocations made in official policy documents starting with biofuel policy. The analysis of policy goals and coherence when it comes to land allocation is made in relation to agriculture, climate and forestry policies. We conclude that adjustments need to be made in the policies to avoid overlappings and misinterpretations when it comes to land allocation. The area made available for meeting each sectoral policy goal when taking into account cross sectoral interactions is: 14.2 Mha for agriculture, 43 Mha for climate mitigation measures, 9.2 Mha for forestry, and 20.9 Mha for biofuels. A more uniform land classification and development of a common reference database will increase transparency on land allocation and use, and help to monitor land use change, ultimately supporting the achievement of multiple national goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim in this paper was to evaluate the spatial distribution of protected areas defined by law and their importance as structural corridors. The study area was 7,559,783.69 ha located in Western Bahia (Northeast Brazil), restricted to the limits of the Urucuia Group (Upper Cretaceous), where there is strong agribusiness growth. Currently, a major dilemma in Brazilian public policy arises from the conflicting interests of environmental conservation and increased food production. Brazilian environmental protection policies include the implantation of Protected Areas (Full Protection Units and Sustainable Use Units) and the adoption of the National Forest Act (Permanent Preservation Areas and Legal Reserves). In this context, we delimited illegal land-use in Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) adopting the intersection between land-use/land-cover data from PRISM/ALOS image classification for the years 2007–2010 and PPA vectors. We performed the temporal analysis in PAs considering land-use/land-cover data from Landsat TM image classification for the years 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2011. Finally, we performed a Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) to evaluate whether PPAs alone are sufficient as structural corridors. Hypothetical scenarios were simulated to increase the potential of PPAs as structural corridors. The calculation of MSPA attributes was conducted considering 3 edge widths: 15 m (1 pixel), 510 m (34 pixels), and 1005 m (67 pixels). Four scenarios were simulated, considering a gradual increase in preserved areas. The results show that illegal land use is contained within PPA and protected areas. The scenario simulations present alternatives to increase the connectivity of the fragments and ensure the maintenance of ecological and hydrological services. Rapid agricultural expansion without proper landscape planning can compromise the sustainability of ecosystem services and the recharge zone of the Urucuia aquifer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last century, Paraguay has seen deforestation on a massive scale. At the same time, forest plantation efforts have been very limited. This paper examines why this is the case, and why until today investment in forest plantations in Paraguay is constrained despite visible wood shortages. Paraguay’s forest plantation sector is analyzed based on a typology of five plantation paradigms. This is followed by a critical diagnosis of the current plantation situation on the project level conducted through a SWOT-AHP analysis and supported by an expert survey. Thirty-six specific factors for establishing plantations are identified and evaluated for both small-scale and large-scale plantations. The analysis reveals strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for both plantation types, and shows that small-scale plantations possess more highly valued strengths, while there are more significant threats for large-scale plantations. Critical conclusions and policy implications for expanding the scale of forest plantations in Paraguay are provided, focusing on forestry, institutional, political and intersectoral issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corruption has often been blamed for causing deforestation, however, the evidence is mixed. The paper develops a framework to assess the impacts of corruption on forests and prioritize policy responses. Rather than relying just on a theoretical description of corruption, the framework is developed by analyzing how corruption manifests itself on the ground in the forest sector in Indonesia. The framework considers the potential impacts of corruption at different stages of forest management. We argue that to identify the specific impacts of corruption, it is necessary to understand intervening factors. It is shown that the impacts of different types of corruption on forests may be direct, indirect, ambiguous, or even negligible. Therefore, anti-corruption efforts should be more targeted to the specific types of corruption that are most likely to contribute to deforestation and forest degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The management of forests to store carbon and mitigate climate change has received significant international attention during the last decade. Using in situ data from a 2008–2009 forest inventory field campaign in Sri Lanka, this study describes the structural characteristics and carbon stocks of six natural forest types. This paper has a dual scope: i) to highlight the variation in carbon stored in aboveground biomass within and between forest types and ii) to determine the implications of the allometric equations chosen to calculate biomass carbon stocks. This study concerns work related to climate change interventions, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) and other forest-related, performance-based initiatives that require proper monitoring, reporting, and verification of carbon stocks, sinks and emissions. The results revealed that forests are heterogeneous in terms of tree density and height–diameter relationships, both between and within the six forest types investigated. The mean aboveground carbon stock in the different forest types ranged from 22 to 181 Mg C ha −1 , and there were statistically significant differences in the carbon stocks of the six forest types in 7 of 15 cases. The estimated carbon stock depended heavily on the allometric equation used for the calculations, the variables, and its application to the specific life zone. Due to the diversity of forest structures, these results suggest that caution should be taken when applying default values to estimate forest carbon stocks and emission values in reporting and accounting schemes. The results also indicated the need for allometric equations that are context-specific for different forest types. Therefore, new field investigations and measurements are needed to determine these specific allometric equations, as well as the potential variation in forest carbon stocks in tropical natural forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a causal analysis framework to increase understanding of land-use change (LUC) and the reliability of LUC models. This health-sciences-inspired framework can be applied to determine probable causes of LUC in the context of bioenergy. Calculations of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for LUC associated with biofuel production are critical in determining whether a fuel qualifies as a biofuel or advanced biofuel category under regional (EU), national (US, UK), and state (California) regulations. Biofuel policymakers and scientists continue to discuss to what extent presumed indirect land-use change (ILUC) estimates should be included in GHG accounting for biofuel pathways. Current estimates of ILUC for bioenergy rely largely on economic simulation models that focus on causal pathways involving global commodity trade and use coarse land-cover data with simple land classification systems. This paper challenges the application of such models to estimate global areas of LUC in the absence of causal analysis. The proposed causal analysis framework begins with a definition of the change that has occurred and proceeds to a strength-of-evidence approach that includes plausibility of relationship, completeness of causal pathway, spatial co-occurrence, time order, analogous agents, simulation model results, and quantitative agent–response relationships. We discuss how LUC may be allocated among probable causes for policy purposes and how the application of the framework has the potential to increase the validity of LUC models and resolve controversies about ILUC, such as deforestation, and biofuels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demand for forestland for non-forest uses, mostly oil palm, has increased dramatically in the past few years and has become a chief driver of deforestation in Central Kalimantan. In this paper, we aim to shed light on how multiple levels of government create a facilitating environment for oil palm expansion. In our research, we employed three different methods: content analysis of key policy documents, participant observations, and expert interviews. We found that the technical complexities of formal procedures for the conversion of forest to oil palm are relatively easy to bypass. Contradicting laws and regulations have created a situation where the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF) and local governments have relatively equal legal mandates and authority over land-use and allocation. This is further complicated by the ambiguity of the decentralization policy. Enabled by the spatial planning law and the decentralization laws, local governments have aggressively issued plantation licenses for forest areas without the formal release of the forest from the Ministry of Forestry. The issuance of plantation permits has also been legitimized by other policies within central government, which have made oil palm a national priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main causes of tropical forest loss is conversion to agriculture, which is constantly increasing as a dominant land cover in the tropics. The loss of forests greatly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper assesses the economic return from increasing tree cover in agricultural landscapes in two tropical locations, West Java, Indonesia and eastern Bangladesh. Agroforestry systems are compared with subsistence seasonal food-crop-based agricultural systems. Data were collected through rapid rural appraisal, field observation, focus groups and semi-structured interviews of farm households. The inclusion of agroforestry tree crops in seasonal agriculture improved the systems’ overall economic performance (net present value), even when it reduced understorey crop production. However, seasonal agriculture has higher income per unit of land area used for crop cultivation compared with the tree establishment and development phase of agroforestry farms. Thus, there is a trade-off between short-term loss of agricultural income and longer-term economic gain from planting trees in farmland. For resource-poor farmers to implement this change, institutional support is needed to improve their knowledge and skills with this unfamiliar form of land management, sufficient capital for the initial investment, and an increase in the security of land tenure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses new, high resolution satellite-derived data to explore recent cross-national differences in expanding tree cover. Increases in tree cover have concentrated in nations with recent histories of extensive deforestation, humid climates, high crop yields, and small numbers of farm workers. The associations of expanded tree cover with high yields for cereal crops and small populations of cultivators suggests a dynamic, sometimes referred to as a forest transition, in which urbanization and industrialization promote a long-term expansion in tree cover on certain types of land. The association of tree cover gains with tree cover losses and humid climates suggests a second dynamic, a churning, treadmill-like production of wood products from lands subjected to recurring harvests of wood products followed by tree cover gains in the recently harvested areas. The forest transition dynamic suggests that many smallholders would allow tree cover to expand on their lands if payments for environmental services were available. The salience of the treadmill dynamic of tree cover losses followed by tree cover gains underscores the importance of questions about the implications of commercial tree monocultures for biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and social justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts aimed at sparing forests on tropical forest frontiers through REDD+, PES or conservation initiatives currently rely on a limited understanding of the operation of land markets and their effects on the opportunity cost of forests as frontiers develop. In this paper, we draw on a unique dataset of landholder-reported land transactions that includes post-1991 land sales-in three sub-montane frontier forest areas on the eastern slopes of the Peruvian Andes. We analyze reported land sales that took place between 1979 and 2013 among Amazonian frontier farmers and find highly active land markets in all three areas, often in the absence of formal land tenure. As frontiers developed, parcel size fell, as did the portion of remaining forest cover, and land prices rose, reflecting both forest clearing and general land price inflation as the areas became more populated and developed. Across three study districts in 2013, each additional hectare of forest cleared raised the expected price of a parcel of land by US $1371–$2587. Importantly, we estimate the opportunity cost per hectare of frontier forest rose markedly over time: by $124–$226 per year between 2003 and 2013, a rate of increase over that period of 9–27% per year. Forest conservation programs that rely on estimates of landholders' willingness to accept compensation for sparing forest need to take into account that these values change rapidly as frontiers develop. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Land governance is a factor of Brazilian Amazon deforestation control. • Lack of an integrated land cadaster paves the way for land speculation and land grabs. • Recent political shift has generated uncertainties about the future of Brazilian environmental policies. This paper's aim is to show that improvements in land governance in Brazil, and particularly in the Amazon region, have been the main pre-condition enabling reductions in deforestation of the Amazon rainforest. Deforestation occurs primarily where property rights are not clearly established, and occurs mostly on land directly or indirectly under state responsibility. This paper also shows that land speculation plays an important role in deforestation. Based on these findings, it is evident that Brazil must improve its land governance in order to decrease rates of deforestation. The Brazilian government has adopted important new efforts to improve land administration, including improvements in the registration process and the Terra Legal program, which are addressing public land problems across large areas of the Amazon. The concluding section highlights how efforts to reduce deforestation will only be possible through more efficient land governance, especially in the Amazon region, and discusses the important role that participatory land governance may play in improving land use and land ownership through application of land taxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The way vegetation is officially named, classified, and identified has critical implications for ecosystems and biodiversity conservation. Yet little attention is given to how such issues hinder the efficacy of laws mandating environmental conservation on private land. In the Brazilian Amazon where half of the land is now already under private tenure or is available for future land-uses, differences in vegetation mapping and interpretation directly affect the level of protection in private rural properties, especially in transition areas where forest and savanna areas intermingle. Since Brazil's Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) attaches a higher percentage of protection to forest-located properties, landowners may be tempted to use conflicting mappings and different vegetation classifications to claim their properties are located in areas other than forests to reduce their conservation requirements. In this paper, we compare three official vegetation databases and examine different law interpretation scenarios to assess the extent to which the level of private conservation may fluctuate. We found a difference of up to 430,000 km2 of protected vegetation (an area the size of Iraq) according to the database and vegetation characteristics chosen. This technical ambiguity may lead to make additional deforestation legal or reduce sharply the amount of vegetation to be restored for these areas, if left unaddressed. Clarifying the database and criteria used to define forest is critical, especially as Brazilian states may make different choices in that regard, and cases in which loopholes are exploited occurred in the recent past. Given the importance of this region for global biodiversity conservation and climate, we highlight the urgent need to: (1) support additional research to clarify vegetation characteristics and location; (2) agree on a harmonized methodology to determine forests for NVPL implementation, and (3) explore alternative criteria for defining forests when databases conflict. • Accurate native vegetation mapping is key to private forest conservation. • Uncertain vegetation classification weakens compliance with Brazil's forest law. • Study provides scenarios exploring the implications of multiple vegetation databases. • 430,000 square kilometers of the Brazilian Amazon are at risk of reduced protection. • Both deforestation and native vegetation restoration are affected by this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the policy changes occurring in the forest and palm oil sectors of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, through the lens of the transformational change concept. The aim is to first examine whether Sabah is transforming and, if so, to identify the determinants enabling or hindering the change. To determine if Sabah is transforming, we used two criteria: - (i) an ambitious change in the policy framework, that promotes forest conservation and sustainable use, and is moving away from business-as-usual activities; and (ii) the level of implementation of the policies that we identified as supporting transformational change. We found that Sabah very likely did intend to transform. We made this conclusion based on comparing changes in policies occurring in Sabah, and we decided if it is ambitious by primarily comparing Sabah's policies with other Malaysian states, the federal government, and internationally. We showed that: (i) Sabah decided to use voluntary international certification standards (private market instruments) like FSC and RSPO, while the other Malaysian states did not; (ii) they decided to protect more forest compared to national and international targets; and (iii) Sabah is an early mover as the state is one of the first in the world to adopt the RSPO Jurisdictional Approach. But intention needs to be followed by implementation, and this is where the state falls short. The policies in Sabah were not fully implemented because of the patronage system where the more powerful actors used their power to continue with business-as-usual activities, there is frequent political turnover in Sabah, and the state faced difficulty in meeting international standards. Our research shows that local leadership and a local transformational change coalition (civil society actively working in Sabah) mainly prompted the transformational change, although the promises of economic gains and better reputation also played a role. We conclude by emphasising the change must be made more compelling for political leaders, as part of a broader institutional structure, not only through the narrow focus on reducing deforestation but through the development of a more sustainable and equitable national economy, and that consumer countries should play a role in reducing pressures on forest by providing incentives to a state that manages its natural resources sustainably. • Sabah adopted a series of ambitious policy measures to move away from unsustainable exploitation of its forest resources. • One ambitious policy was the RSPO jurisdictional approach which if implemented, is transformational. • Sabah's implementation of transformational policies fell short because of the patronage system in the state. • Local leadership and civil society prompted the transformational change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil was the first country to submit a reference level (RL) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aiming to claim results-based payments for reduced emissions from deforestation in the REDD+ mechanism. This voluntary RL submission has passed an official technical assessment process by the UNFCCC on the accordance of the data and method applied, which was finalised in December 2014. After years of international negotiations this has become possible by the REDD+ framework finally agreed. Although never formally adopted, the rules of procedure of the UNFCCC foresee consensus among the 196 parties to the convention. Due to the wide heterogeneity in national circumstances and capacities between these parties, the decided REDD+ framework represents a compromise, and in some points space for interpretation remains due to a lack of clear definitions. E.g., no internationally standardised method exists for the design of RLs under UNFCCC; rather each country has the possibility to apply its own approach within a given range of requirements. We argue that these nationally designed RLs involve the danger of raising a ‘cherry-picking’ mentality, which would reduce cost-efficiency of the payments. Especially in the light of the ongoing pressure to fight anthropogenic global climate change, the overall objective of REDD+ should be climate effectiveness. Therefore, apparently contradictory objectives—of integrating as many developing countries as possible, by keeping the barriers low, and of effective emission reductions by persisting on strict rules for national carbon accounting—had to be balanced. According to the technical assessment by the UNFCCC, the submitted Brazilian RL fulfils all formal requirements. However, as implication of the negotiated framework, there remain some questions on the climate effectiveness and the cost-efficiency of the submitted approach, which this viewpoint paper aims to critically reflect. Brazil chose for its present RL design the eligible options of a subnational coverage, with consideration of the activity of deforestation only. But only comprehensive accounting of all activities on national scale can ensure that all potential emissions are accounted for. By the present accounting gap, doubts on climate effectiveness arise. Furthermore, Brazil chose a fixed starting year for historic emissions and did not consider national circumstances, which results in reference emissions of about 1100 Mt CO 2 /a between 2006 and 2010. This potentially profitable RL setting for Brazil raises doubt on the cost-efficiency of the implied REDD+ payment. Whether these problems arising from the four eligible but critical RL options applied by Brazil emerge in other RLs as well, was checked for further five RL proposals submitted up to now. None of these country submissions has passed the technical assessment yet. The submitted approaches for RL design differ among the considered countries but one can see a tendency towards profitable individual RL definitions, similar to the Brazilian RL. From our findings we conclude that individually determined RLs without standardised methods bear the risk of national ‘cherry-picking’ which can compromise climate effectiveness and cost-efficiency of the whole REDD+ mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest loss and fragmentation, which generate various negative environmental and ecological consequences, have become widespread phenomena across the globe. Motivation to investigate the underlying drivers is essential for land use planning and policy decision making. This paper characterizes forest loss and fragmentation from 1979 to 2014 in the Ningbo region (China) using multitemporal satellite imageries and a set of landscape metrics (area-weighted mean patch area, edge density, area-weighted shape index, Euclidean nearest neighbor distance, effective mesh size and total area); and then quantifies the responsible socioeconomic drivers (economy, social activities, science and technology, culture and policy, demography) under different land use planning schemes (urban and non-urban) using multivariate linear regression. Results show that the two zones present identical trend of intensifying forest loss and fragmentation but differ in changing magnitude and speed. More specifically, forest loss and fragmentation in the non-urban planning zone occurs at a significantly higher pace and magnitude. For the urban planning zone, population pressure, economic growth and fruit consumption are the primary drivers of forest loss, while forest fragmentation is mainly driven by economic openness, cash crop consumption and environmental protection consciousness. For the non-urban planning zone, income increases, fruit consumption and infrastructure development are the primary drivers of forest loss, while infrastructure and tourism development are the major drivers of forest fragmentation. Besides, forest loss and fragmentation in the two zones are both heavily subjected to land use policy. The variance partitioning analysis highlights that the policy driver is the most influential one and economic driver also has strong effect on forest loss and fragmentation in the urban planning zone. For the non-urban planning zone, the influence of policy driver is the strongest and social activity is also very powerful. These results provide compelling evidence that land use planning fails to play an efficient role in protecting forest resources in the Ningbo region. The failure should be attributed to several issues associated with land use planning and forestry governance that widely exist in China. We finally propose some pertinent implications and suggestions for China’s land use planning and forest policy. This study is believed to advance the understanding of the socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation. It therefore provides some new insights in land use policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Researchers are increasingly interested in understanding the impact of contentious social processes on land change. In the Brazilian Amazon, there are often contentious interactions between landholders defending private property rights and squatters who have the right to occupy land that is deemed unproductive. Previous studies suggest that the contentious social processes inherent in the Brazilian land tenure and land reform system cause a significant amount of deforestation. An environment of insecure land title, and policies that value deforested land over forested land, among other factors, encourage both landholders and squatters to deforest more land than is necessary for pasture or crop production. This paper examines the impact that land occupations have on deforestation at the municipal scale across the Brazilian Legal Amazon, from 2000 to 2009. We show that land occupations have a direct influence on deforestation. We use spatial analysis as well to show that land occupations have a spatial component in the effect on deforestation: occupations in one municipality affect deforestation in adjacent areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over 400 million hectares of tropical forests are managed for timber production, comprising more than half of the remaining global permanent tropical forest estate. A growing proportion of tropical production forests are managed under Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) principles. The objective of SFM is to achieve multiple benefits, including forest protection, biodiversity conservation and income enhancement. However, the outcomes resulting from the implementation of SFM in tropical forest ecosystems have seldom been examined rigorously. In this paper, we present a methodological approach to assess broad-scale impacts of SFM policy in tropical forest ecosystems. As a case study, we investigated deforestation and timber production in logging concessions in the Republic of Congo after the implementation of its SFM-based forestry law in 2000. Compliance with the forestry law was incomplete, allowing a unique opportunity to compare deforestation and legal timber production outcomes in concessions that implemented SFM-based policy compared to those that did not. Quasi-experimental matching analysis indicated that deforestation in matched parcels in compliant concessions was up to 2-times higher than matched parcels in non-compliant concessions, equivalent to 67 km 2 of forest loss for the period 2005–2010. Annual deforestation data demonstrated that deforestation was stable or increased in all six concessions following the respective date of compliance in each concession. Legal timber production increased (by 5%, from 0.18 to 0.19 CBM/ha/yr) and became more stable, in compliant compared to non-compliant concessions. Our results suggest that the presence of SFM in a concession does not immediately lead to less deforestation. Rather, SFM policy may be associated with higher deforestation, because SFM is also associated with higher legal timber production, foreign capital, and international timber demand. Our findings measure short-term associations between SFM and deforestation in the Congo, and underscore the need for empirical evaluation of long-term impacts of SFM in tropical forest ecosystems worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of assessing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation (DD), for effective implementation of REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) this study interviewed 50 experts and analyzed current political strategies in the forest related sectors of Cameroon and the Republic of Congo. The main research questions addressed in this study include: What do experts at the national level think of the drivers of DD and their evolution? What should, and must, be done at the national level to curb deforestation? How and where should governments focus their limited resources and capacity to address DD? Our analysis shows that institutional and policy factors are more important than any other types of underlying causes in both countries and, thus, are indispensable to effectively combat DD in the long term. Expansion of agro-industrial plantation, subsistence agriculture and wood extraction continue as the most pressing threats to forest cover in these countries. Land use policy should, therefore, give high priority to selecting degraded and low carbon lands and to improving their productivity. Policy decision space and main challenges to effectively address forest conversion in these countries are also discussed in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical deforestation is a serious environmental and economic problem that has become a global issue due to climate change and biodiversity loss. Reducing tropical deforestation is seen as national and international priority, given its impacts on carbon emissions, biodiversity and rural livelihoods. Some developing countries have achieved a forest transition: a shift from net deforestation to net reforestation, whereby a few generic pathways have been identified. Such pathways usually depend on the social, economic, ecological and political contexts of a country. A better understanding of trends related to the pathways at the country level is necessary to identify which factors drive forest transition. This paper analyzes forest resources development trends in Ghana by focusing on forest transition pathways and discussing the implications for a forest transition in the country. The analysis indicates that there is currently no strong force toward a forest transition through any of the generic pathways. Existing trends are either too small-scale or too ineffective. To accelerate a forest transition in Ghana, policy and management options should target measures that reduce current degradation of closed natural forests, increase the area and productivity of commercial forest plantations, promote sustainable forest management, and support and encourage forest conservation and integration of trees into farming systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are diverse lessons that subnational projects designed to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) should learn from integrated conservation and development projects (ICDPs) working in developing country settings. This paper develops and applies a lesson learning framework to identify and analyse lessons that the Kasigau REDD+ project learns from a governmental ICDP (national park) and a nongovernmental ICDP (World Vision) that have been implemented in Taita-Taveta county, Kenya. Fieldwork and document reviews revealed 24 lessons drawn from both positive and negative ICDP experiences. At the design level, the REDD+ project maintained the commonly critiqued top-down intervening approach as used by the ICDPs by excluding community input into its globally-linked design. At the implementation level, the REDD+ project promoted better community representation in project decisions and benefit sharing when compared to the ICDPs. A landscape approach, democratic institutional choices and pro-poor benefit sharing were the key interventions that enabled the REDD+ project to improve on the ICDP experiences. The usefulness of the ICDP experiences was however weakened by a lack of direct consultative platform between the projectsl. The REDD+ project relied mainly on the local community to learn fromICDP experiences, but this led to partial implementation deficits by promoting local participation interests over global mitigation goals. Further, community-driven lesson learning appeared to disconnect the project from State institutions that the community perceived negatively due to past resource centralization regimes. These State institutions are however the legal custodians of most assets (such as land) required for REDD+ implementation. ICDP lessons are therefore necessary for effective REDD+ implementation but can only be useful if the process of adopting lessons is cognizant of relevant stakeholders such as the State. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasingly, international agreements, treaties, and conventions address tropical deforestation and specific causes of rainforest transformation. Such international regimes may aim to conserve natural forests or to support the exploitation of lands for a particular purpose, e.g. agricultural commodities. This paper’s goal is to map the international regime complex for rainforest transformation by identifying those global and regional regimes that are relevant for tropical rainforest transformation systems in Indonesia. The relevance of international regimes for rainforest transformation is assessed based on a novel methodology using two criteria: First, international regimes may be relevant in Indonesia because the core problem they address exists in Indonesia (problem dimension). Second, specific international regimes may be made relevant by the actions of specific actors and their coalitions in pursuit of their interests (actor dimension). To achieve the study’s goals we used (1) content analysis of international policy documents and treaty texts, (2) expert interviews with key informants in Indonesia, and (3) own field observations in current Indonesian land use politics. The results indicate that regimes dealing with biological diversity, climate change, trade in endangered species, wetland management, international tropical trade, illegal logging, Southeast Asian (ASEAN) forest and environment, the Asia Pacific free trade, and the southeast Asian rubber trade regime are relevant in both the problem and actor dimensions. The regimes concerned with desertification and international forestry research are relevant only in the actor dimension. In contrast, the following regimes are relevant only in the problem dimension: indigenous rights, forest certification, palm oil certification, agroforestry certification, and international rubber trade. We discuss our results considering global and regional regimes relevant to Indonesian rainforest transformation systems. We conclude that regimes relevant solely due to the engagement of domestic actors and not in respect of the problem dimension are unlikely to maintain their relevance in the long term. In the short term, however, they have the potential for creating substantial political benefits for the actors using them. In contrast, regimes with high problem relevance but low actor backing are unlikely to even enter the political agenda, and therefore will have only limited impact. This suggests that future research should consider that, whilst relevance in the problem dimension is necessary to establish regime influence, it alone does not suffice. We can expect global and regional regimes to have an influence only when powerful actors back them in their agenda setting, domestic policy formulation and actual implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: It is widely recognised that weak governance is a major constraint in planning for sustainable development, especially in the South. Sophisticated models that have been developed for assessing the likely effect of selected policies on land-use, and on sustainable development more generally, increasingly acknowledge this; but they do not include methods for taking this into account, in quantitative terms – which is what is necessary if such models are to be applied in practice. This paper begins by identifying the limitations of standard models in this respect, and then suggests a possible way to respond to the problem. We propose the use of what we call ‘policy-specific governance indicators’, that is, indicators not of general government performance across the board, but rather of the actual performance of particular policies – or, if necessary, suitable proxies derived from similar policies. By reference to a case study from Brazil concerning controls on deforestation, we show how this can be done in practice, and built in to the planning model. And by reference to studies from Indonesia and India we explore how one might address still more challenging cases that may arise. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Given the importance of the agricultural frontier as an engine of deforestation, this paper focuses on how colonists (from the Spanish word for “colonists” that is used to describe migrants to the agricultural frontier), who are important and largely overlooked stakeholders, perceive the new climate mitigation mechanism known as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+). We aimed (1) to document colonists’ land use, perceptions, needs, and aspirations and (2) to understand if and how they could be taken into account under REDD+ policies. The study, including multiple data collection techniques (e.g., focus group, interviews, and participatory activities), was conducted in eastern Panama. Three areas that were adjacent to the Province of Darien border were chosen because of their similar forested landscapes and varying accessibility to a main road. Our results suggest that land use preferences, culture, forest scarcity and dependency, inequalities (e.g., land use, amount of forest, and land area), and lack of technical capacities are key elements to be considered when developing a REDD+ strategy with colonist communities. We propose that halting deforestation without both considering local communities’ perceptions and giving effective alternatives could seriously undermine livelihoods. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Amazon continues to lose its natural vegetation, and Brazil, in particular, has a distinct agricultural frontier. We highlight the role of surveillance in reducing deforestation rates in the region. This paper lists the characteristics of the current agrarian structure and the surveillance information from Brazilian Institute of Environment and Natural Resources (IBAMA) with the current deforestation standards in the Amazonian municipalities. In addition, we investigate the relationship between the new areas of deforestation and the low level of agrarian technology in those areas. To do this, we used public deforestation data from the second half of the last decade (2005–2009). We also used agricultural census data to create an index of level of agrarian technology. Based on level of agrarian technology index it was possible to conclude that areas where agriculture and livestock have low level of agrarian technology coincide with the areas of highest deforestation in the Amazon. We found that agrarian structure guided the Amazonian deforestation at the end of this decade, as in previous decades. The maintenance of Agrarian structure in the region over the past 10 years makes us hypothesize that factors such as surveillance may determine decreases in deforestation rates. We showed that embargoed areas due to illegal deforestation occur in the critical areas of deforestation in Amazon, although do not get a clear any decrease in those deforestation rates caused by it. Possibly due to the time lag between recent changes in IBAMA surveillance approach and the society perception of the costs associated to illegal deforestation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: There is an ongoing debate on the effect different property regimes have on the use of natural resources and land conversion (i.e., deforestation or reforestation). Much of the discussion has been centered on the two main forms of tenure regime: common-pool system and private property. Case studies around the world have provided evidence on whether one is more effective at preventing deforestation than the other, but there is not a clear pattern. Part of the problem is that evidence comes from theoretical models or isolated case studies instead of comparative studies across large areas. This paper helps to fill this gap by analyzing the association between land cover change (2001–2010) and land tenure regimes including private and two types of common-pool systems (communal and ejido) in Mexico at the municipality level. The analyses were conducted for each of the four major biomes (i.e., moist forest, dry forest, coniferous forest, and desert) to control for differences in environmental factors. Municipalities dominated by communal land tenure had the largest increase in woody cover (classified as >80% cover) in the moist forest, dry forest, and coniferous forest biomes, and municipalities classified as private also had an increase in woody cover, particularly in the desert biome. In contrast, municipalities classified as ejidos (common-pool tenure system resulting from the land reform) lost woody cover mostly in moist forest and desert biomes, but gained woody cover in dry forest and coniferous forest biomes. In modeling analyses, environmental variables were the most important variables associated with woody cover change for private and most communal municipalities, while socioeconomic variables were the most important in ejido regimes. These results highlight the importance of land tenure on land cover change, and show that differences in woody cover change between types of common-pool systems can be larger than their differences with private land tenure. During the last 10years, virtually all deforestation has occurred in areas dominated by ejidos; in contrast, communal and private regimes seem to ameliorate the deforestation process. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Fed by demand for beef within Brazil and in global markets, the Brazilian herd grew from 147 million head of cattle in 1990 to ≈200 million in 2007. Eighty-three percent of this expansion occurred in the Amazon and this trend is expected to continue as the industry bounces back from a recent agricultural downturn. Intensification of the cattle industry has been suggested as one way to reduce pressure on forest margins and spare land for soybean or sugarcane production, and is the cornerstone of Brazil''s plan for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. To this end, federal credit programs and research and development activities in Brazil are aligning to support intensification goals, but there is no guarantee that this push for intensification will decrease the demand for land at the forest margin and as result curb CO2 emissions from deforestation. In this paper we use a spatially explicit rent model which incorporates the local effects of biophysical characteristics, infrastructure, land prices, and distance to markets and slaughterhouses to calculate 30-year Net Present Values (NPVs) of extensive cattle ranching across the Brazilian Amazon. We use the model to ask where extensive ranching is profitable and how land acquisition affects profitability. We estimate that between 17% and 80% of land in the Amazon would have moderate to high NPVs when ranched extensively if it were settled, i.e. if the rancher does not buy the land but acquires it through land grabbing. In addition, we estimate that between 9% and 13% of land in the Amazon is vulnerable to speculation (i.e. areas with positive NPVs only if land is settled and not purchased), which suggests that land speculation is an important driver of extensive ranching profitability, and may continue to be in the future. These results suggest that pro-intensification policies such as credit provision for improved pasture management and investment in more intensive production systems must be accompanied by implementation and enforcement of policies that alter the incentives to clear forest for pasture, discourage land speculation, and increase accountability for land management practices if intensification of the cattle sector is to deter new deforestation and displace production from low-yield, extensive cattle production systems in frontier regions of the Brazilian Amazon. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Forest management poses particular challenges as the pressure on forests is huge due to deforestation. In this context, the establishment of protected areas is a common conservation measure where institutions are put in place and sanctions regarding forest use are enforced. This paper focuses on the practice of sustainable forest management and the associated perspectives of local institutions at the rainforest margins of Lore Lindu National Park (LLNP) in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Our case study applies a qualitative social science research approach. Interviews and group discussions with relevant actors such as farmers, village authorities, the National Park authority, and non-governmental organization members were conducted. The Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework served to structure the study and to provide a set of questions to be considered concerning rules, participants, and conservation outcomes. State-induced formal rules are compared with traditional informal rules regarding natural resource use. Our results suggest that the current state-imposed formal rules have not been successfully implemented in the past. Insufficient boundary demarcation, and a lack of congruence between rules and local conditions have been identified as main reasons. Traditional informal rules are rather more respected by local people since they are adapted to traditional use rights and sanctions at the village level. Community conservation agreements (CCAs) are considered a promising tool to mediate between National Park conservation interests and local people''s needs integrating traditional informal rules. However, the CCAs implemented in the LLNP area do not address existing differences in perception and behavior of indigenous people and migrants in the area. We argue that this is a central aspect in terms of successful CCA implementation and forest management. Thus, we recommend that the National Park authority should take the cultural diversity of the area seriously into consideration and integrate flexible and distinct socio-cultural strategies into its management processes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Building on the contributions of Mather and others, this paper offers an approach for developing a more comprehensive theory of the forest transition. We argue that long-run changes in forest cover in a country or region cannot be separated from the overall pattern of land use changes. Moreover, this pattern is determined by relative land values; forest cover changes over time as the value of one land use relative to the value of its competing use changes over time. However, the actual values that are used to allocate land may be far from optimal; that is, the presence of market, policy and institutional failures can distort economic and political incentives that can lead to bias in favour of one type of land use over the other, and may ultimately explain why a forest transition may be delayed unnecessarily in some countries and regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]