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Background: Nosocomial infections pose a considerable risk to patients who are susceptible, and this is particularly acute in intensive care units when hospital-associated bacteria are endemic. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the surge of patients presented a significant obstacle to the effectiveness of infection control measures. We aimed to assess the risks and extent of nosocomial pathogen transmission under a high patient burden by designing a novel bacterial pan-pathogen deep-sequencing approach that could be integrated with standard clinical surveillance and diagnostics workflows., Methods: We did a prospective cohort study in a region of northern Italy that was severely affected by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Inpatients on both ordinary and intensive care unit (ICU) wards at the San Matteo hospital, Pavia were sampled on multiple occasions to identify bacterial pathogens from respiratory, nasal, and rectal samples. Diagnostic samples collected between April 7 and May 10, 2020 were cultured on six different selective media designed to enrich for Acinetobacter baumannii, Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecium, Enterococcus faecalis, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and Streptococcus pneumoniae, and DNA from each plate with positive growth was deep sequenced en masse. We used mSWEEP and mGEMS to bin sequencing reads by sequence cluster for each species, followed by mapping with snippy to generate high quality alignments. Antimicrobial resistance genes were detected by use of ARIBA and CARD. Estimates of hospital transmission were obtained from pairwise bacterial single nucleotide polymorphism distances, partitioned by within-patient and between-patient samples. Finally, we compared the accuracy of our binned Acinetobacter baumannii genomes with those obtained by single colony whole-genome sequencing of isolates from the same hospital., Findings: We recruited patients from March 1 to May 7, 2020. The pathogen population among the patients was large and diverse, with 2148 species detections overall among the 2418 sequenced samples from the 256 patients. In total, 55 sequence clusters from key pathogen species were detected at least five times. The antimicrobial resistance gene prevalence was correspondingly high, with key carbapenemase and extended spectrum ß-lactamase genes detected in at least 50 (40%) of 125 patients in ICUs. Using high-resolution mapping to infer transmission, we established that hospital transmission was likely to be a significant mode of acquisition for each of the pathogen species. Finally, comparison with single colony Acinetobacter baumannii genomes showed that the resolution offered by deep sequencing was equivalent to single-colony sequencing, with the additional benefit of detection of co-colonisation of highly similar strains., Interpretation: Our study shows that a culture-based deep-sequencing approach is a possible route towards improving future pathogen surveillance and infection control at hospitals. Future studies should be designed to directly compare the accuracy, cost, and feasibility of culture-based deep sequencing with single colony whole-genome sequencing on a range of bacterial species., Funding: Wellcome Trust, European Research Council, Academy of Finland Flagship program, Trond Mohn Foundation, and Research Council of Norway., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests SWL received Robert Austrian Research Award sponsored by Pfizer, outside of the scope of this study. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: The effect of antibiotic usage on the success of multidrug-resistant (MDR) clones in a population remains unclear. With this genomics-based molecular epidemiology study, we aimed to investigate the contribution of antibiotic use to Escherichia coli clone success, relative to intra-strain competition for colonisation and infection., Methods: We sequenced all the available E coli bloodstream infection isolates provided by the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy (BSAC) from 2012 to 2017 (n=718) and combined these with published data from the UK (2001-11; n=1090) and Norway (2002-17; n=3254). Defined daily dose (DDD) data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (retrieved on Sept 21, 2021) for major antibiotic classes (β-lactam, tetracycline, macrolide, sulfonamide, quinolone, and non-penicillin β-lactam) were used together with sequence typing, resistance profiling, regression analysis, and non-neutral Wright-Fisher simulation-based modelling to enable systematic comparison of resistance levels, clone success, and antibiotic usage between the UK and Norway., Findings: Sequence type (ST)73, ST131, ST95, and ST69 accounted for 892 (49·3%) of 1808 isolates in the BSAC collection. In the UK, the proportion of ST69 increased between 2001-10 and 2011-17 (p=0·0004), whereas the proportions of ST73 and ST95 did not vary between periods. ST131 expanded quickly after its emergence in 2003 and its prevalence remained consistent throughout the study period (apart from a brief decrease in 2009-10). The extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-carrying, globally disseminated MDR clone ST131-C2 showed overall greater success in the UK (154 [56·8%] of 271 isolates in 2003-17) compared with Norway (51 [18·3%] of 278 isolates in 2002-17; p<0·0001). DDD data indicated higher total use of antimicrobials in the UK, driven mainly by the class of non-penicillin β-lactams, which were used between 2·7-times and 5·1-times more in the UK per annum (ratio mean 3·7 [SD 0·8]). This difference was associated with the higher success of the MDR clone ST131-C2 (pseudo-R 2 69·1%). A non-neutral Wright-Fisher model replicated the observed expansion of non-MDR and MDR sequence types under higher DDD regimes., Interpretation: Our study indicates that resistance profiles of contemporaneously successful clones can vary substantially, warranting caution in the interpretation of correlations between aggregate measures of resistance and antibiotic usage. Our study further suggests that in countries with low-to-moderate use of antibiotics, such as the UK and Norway, the extent of non-penicillin β-lactam use modulates rather than determines the success of widely disseminated MDR ESBL-carrying E coli clones. Detailed understanding of underlying causal drivers of success is important for improved control of resistant pathogens., Funding: Trond Mohn Foundation, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, European Research Council, Royal Society, and Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests NJC reports support to his institution from GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, and Merck (MSD), and personal grants from MRC, outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: One Health approaches to address the increasing threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are gaining attention. However, data on the distribution and movement of bacteria and their AMR-associated genes between clinical and non-clinical sources are scarce, especially from low-income and middle-income countries. We aimed to analyse Klebsiella isolates from various sources in Ghana and compare the prevalence of AMR with datasets from two other countries., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional genomic One Health study. Multiple clinical, environmental, and animal sources were sampled from 78 locations (eg, hospitals, residential areas, and farms) in and around Tamale, Ghana. Clinical samples were collected through routine screening and in cases of suspected infection between March 15 and Sept 15, 2019, and samples from the wider environment were collected during a dedicated sampling effort between the dates of Aug 19, 2018, and Sept 26, 2019. Sampling locations were approximately evenly distributed from the centre of the city and steadily outwards to capture both rural and urban locations. Samples with positive growth for Klebsiella were included. Isolates of Klebsiella were obtained from the samples using Simmons citrate agar medium and characterised by antimicrobial susceptibility testing and whole-genome sequencing. A comparative analysis with Klebsiella population surveys from Pavia, Italy, and Tromsø, Norway, was performed. AMR-associated and virulence genes were detected, and the population distribution of these genes was studied., Findings: Of 957 samples collected around Tamale, Ghana, 620 were positive for Klebsiella spp. 573 Klebsiella isolates were successfully sequenced, of which 370 were Klebsiella pneumoniae. Only two hospital isolates were carbapenem-resistant. Extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) genes were relatively common among the Ghanaian clinical isolates but rare in the environmental samples. Prevalence of ESBL genes in human-hospital disease samples was 64% (14 of 22 isolates) in Ghana and 44% (four of nine isolates) in Italy, and prevalence in human-hospital carriage samples was 7% (eight of 107) in Ghana and 13% (54 of 428) in Italy; the prevalence was higher in human-hospital disease samples than in human-hospital carriage samples in both countries, and prevalence across both samples in both countries was higher than in Norway. Ghanaian isolates showed evidence of high recombination rates (recombination events compared with point mutations [r/m] 9·455) and a considerable accessory gene overlap with isolates from Italy and Norway., Interpretation: Although several AMR-associated gene classes were observed relatively frequently in non-clinical sources, ESBL, carbapenemase, and virulence genes were predominantly present only in hospital samples. These results suggest that interventions should be focused on clinical settings to have the greatest effect on the prevalence and dissemination of AMR-associated genes., Funding: European Research Council (742158), Academy of Finland EuroHPC grant, Trond Mohn Foundation (BATTALION grant), and Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Measurement and manipulation of the microbiome is generally considered to have great potential for understanding the causes of complex diseases in humans, developing new therapies, and finding preventive measures. Many studies have found significant associations between the microbiome and various diseases; however, Koch's classical postulates remind us about the importance of causative reasoning when considering the relationship between microbes and a disease manifestation. Although causal discovery in observational microbiome data faces many challenges, methodological advances in causal structure learning have improved the potential of data-driven prediction of causal effects in large-scale biological systems. In this Personal View, we show the capability of existing methods for inferring causal effects from metagenomic data, and we highlight ways in which the introduction of causal structures that are more flexible than existing structures offers new opportunities for causal reasoning. Our observations suggest that microbiome research can further benefit from tools developed in the past 5 years in causal discovery and learn from their applications elsewhere., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: The genomic relationships among Enterococcus faecium isolates are the subject of ongoing research that seeks to clarify the origins of observed lineages and the extent of horizontal gene transfer between them, and to robustly identify links between genotypes and phenotypes. E faecium is considered to form distinct groups-A and B-corresponding to isolates derived from patients who were hospitalised (A) and isolates from humans in the community (B). The additional separation of A into the so-called clades A1 and A2 remains an area of uncertainty. We aimed to investigate the relationships between A1 and non-A1 groups and explore the potential role of non-A1 isolates in shaping the population structure of hospital E faecium ., Methods: We collected short-read sequence data from invited groups that had previously published E faecium genome data. This hospital-based isolate collection could be separated into three groups (or clades, A1, A2, and B) by augmenting the study genomes with published sequences derived from human samples representing the previously defined genomic clusters. We performed phylogenetic analyses, by constructing maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees, and identified historical recombination events. We assessed the pan-genome, did resistome analysis, and examined the genomic data to identify mobile genetic elements. Each genome underwent chromosome painting by use of ChromoPainter within FineSTRUCTURE software to assess ancestry and identify hybrid groups. We further assessed highly admixed regions to infer recombination directionality., Findings: We assembled a collection of 1095 hospital E faecium sequences from 34 countries, further augmented by 33 published sequences. 997 (88%) of 1128 genomes clustered as A1, 92 (8%) as A2, and 39 (4%) as B. We showed that A1 probably emerged as a clone from within A2 and that, because of ongoing gene flow, hospital isolates currently identified as A2 represent a genetic continuum between A1 and community E faecium . This interchange of genetic material between isolates from different groups results in the emergence of hybrid genomes between clusters. Of the 1128 genomes, 49 (4%) hybrid genomes were identified: 33 previously labelled as A2 and 16 previously labelled as A1. These interactions were fuelled by a directional pattern of recombination mediated by mobile genetic elements. By contrast, the contribution of B group genetic material to A1 was limited to a few small regions of the genome and appeared to be driven by genomic sweep events., Interpretation: A2 and B isolates coming into the hospital form an important reservoir for ongoing A1 adaptation, suggesting that effective long-term control of the effect of E faecium could benefit from strategies to reduce these genomic interactions, such as a focus on reducing the acquisition of hospital A1 strains by patients entering the hospital., Funding: Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: We declare no competing interests., (© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.)

Background: The clonal diversity underpinning trends in multidrug resistant Escherichia coli causing bloodstream infections remains uncertain. We aimed to determine the contribution of individual clones to resistance over time, using large-scale genomics-based molecular epidemiology., Methods: This was a longitudinal, E coli population, genomic, cohort study that sampled isolates from 22 512 E coli bloodstream infections included in the Norwegian surveillance programme on resistant microbes (NORM) from 2002 to 2017. 15 of 22 laboratories were able to share their isolates, and the first 22·5% of isolates from each year were requested. We used whole genome sequencing to infer the population structure (PopPUNK), and we investigated the clade composition of the dominant multidrug resistant clonal complex (CC)131 using genetic markers previously reported for sequence type (ST)131, effective population size (BEAST), and presence of determinants of antimicrobial resistance (ARIBA, PointFinder, and ResFinder databases) over time. We compared these features between the 2002-10 and 2011-17 time periods. We also compared our results with those of a longitudinal study from the UK done between 2001 and 2011., Findings: Of the 3500 isolates requested from the participating laboratories, 3397 (97·1%) were received, of which 3254 (95·8%) were successfully sequenced and included in the analysis. A significant increase in the number of multidrug resistant CC131 isolates from 71 (5·6%) of 1277 in 2002-10 to 207 (10·5%) of 1977 in 2011-17 (p<0·0001), was the largest clonal expansion. CC131 was the most common clone in extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-positive isolates (75 [58·6%] of 128) and fluoroquinolone non-susceptible isolates (148 [39·2%] of 378). Within CC131, clade A increased in prevalence from 2002, whereas the global multidrug resistant clade C2 was not observed until 2007. Multiple de-novo acquisitions of both bla CTX-M ESBL-encoding genes in clades A and C1 and gain of phenotypic fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility across the clade A phylogeny were observed. We estimated that exponential increases in the effective population sizes of clades A, C1, and C2 occurred in the mid-2000s, and in clade B a decade earlier. The rate of increase in the estimated effective population size of clade A (N e =3147) was nearly ten-times that of C2 (N e =345), with clade A over-represented in Norwegian CC131 isolates (75 [27·0%] of 278) compared with the UK study (8 [5·4%] of 147 isolates)., Interpretation: The early and sustained establishment of predominantly antimicrobial susceptible CC131 clade A isolates, relative to multidrug resistant clade C2 isolates, suggests that resistance is not necessary for clonal success. However, even in the low antibiotic use setting of Norway, resistance to important antimicrobial classes has rapidly been selected for in CC131 clade A isolates. This study shows the importance of genomic surveillance in uncovering the complex ecology underlying multidrug resistance dissemination and competition, which have implications for the design of strategies and interventions to control the spread of high-risk multidrug resistant clones., Funding: Trond Mohn Foundation, European Research Council, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, and the Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests NJC reports grants from GlaxoSmithKline and personal fees from Antigen Discovery, outside the submitted work. JP reports grants from Wellcome Trust, during the study. All other authors declare no competing interest. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Antimicrobial resistance is highly prevalent in low-income and middle-income countries. International travel contributes substantially to the global spread of intestinal multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria. Hundreds of millions of annual visitors to low-income and middle-income countries are all exposed to intestinal multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria resulting in 30-70% of them being colonised at their return. The colonisation process in high-exposure environments is poorly documented because data have only been derived from before travel and after travel sampling. We characterised colonisation dynamics by exploring daily stool samples while visiting a low-income and middle-income countries., Methods: In this prospective, daily, real-time sampling study 20 European visitors to Laos volunteered to provide daily stool samples and completed daily questionnaires for 22 days. Samples were initially assessed at Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, Laos, for acquisition of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing (ESBL) Gram-negative bacteria followed by whole-genome sequencing of isolates at MicrobesNG, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK. The primary outcome of the study was to obtain data on the dynamics of intestinal multidrug-resistant bacteria acquisition., Findings: Between Sept 18 and Sept 20, 2015, 23 volunteers were recruited, of whom 20 (87%) European volunteers were included in the final study population. Although colonisation rates were 70% at the end of the study, daily sampling revealed that all participants had acquired ESBL-producing Gram-negative bacteria at some point during the study period; the colonisation status varied day by day. Whole-genome sequencing analysis ascribed the transient pattern of colonisation to sequential acquisition of new strains, resulting in a loss of detectable colonisation by the initial multidrug-resistant Gram-negative strains. 19 (95%) participants acquired two to seven strains. Of the 83 unique strains identified (53 Escherichia coli , 10 Klebsiella spp, and 20 other ESBL-producing Gram-negative bacteria), some were shared by as many as four (20%) participants., Interpretation: To our knowledge, this is the first study to characterise in real-time the dynamics of acquiring multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacterial colonisation during travel. Our data show multiple transient colonisation events indicative of constant microbial competition and suggest that travellers are exposed to a greater burden of multidrug-resistant bacteria than previously thought. The data emphasise the need for preventing travellers' diarrhoea and limiting antibiotic use, addressing the two major factors predisposing colonisation., Funding: The Finnish Governmental Subsidy for Health Science Research, The Scandinavian Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, the Sigrid Jusélius Foundation, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council; Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council; The Royal Society; Joint Programming Initiative on Antimicrobial Resistance, and European Research Council., (© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.)