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Summary: The new institutional literature widely acknowledges the benefits of growth‐enhancing institutions but rarely discusses the path of institutional reform. While good institutions stabilize the structure of exchange and decrease uncertainty in market transactions, institutional reform may involve institutional volatility. If institutional volatility increases uncertainty, it can mitigate the benefits of reform. Using a sample of 89 countries from 2000‐2015, this paper empirically examines the effects of institutional volatility on economic growth. We find that institutional volatility decreases economic growth, particularly during liberalization for countries with low quality institutions and low income. In fact, a one standard deviation increase in volatility decreases growth by about 0.50 percentage points. This finding is robust to multiple estimation techniques and omitted variable bias. Evidence is provided suggesting that this effect is partially mediated through volatility's impact on private investment. These results support prior works that policy makers should pursue economic freedom, but our work indicates they should do so along a stable reform path to maximize economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Using a dataset for a panel of 118 countries, this paper shows that changes in the level of education of national populations aged 45 to 64 are positively associated with economic growth. An increase of one percentage point in the share of individuals in this age group who attended secondary education is associated with a 1.2% increase in GDP per capita. In contrast, variation in the level of education in younger cohorts is not positively associated with economic growth. These results suggest that investment in education benefits society, but only in the long‐term. Several possible explanations for this finding are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the effect of individual responsibility on economic development using an instrument derived from rainfall data. I argue that a taste for collective responsibility was adaptive in preindustrial societies that were exposed to high levels of agricultural risk, and that these attitudes continue to influence contemporary social norms and economic outcomes. The link between agricultural risk and collective responsibility is formalized in a model of optimal parental socialization effort. Empirically, I find a robust negative correlation between rainfall variation, a measure of exogenous agricultural risk, and a measure of individual responsibility. Using rainfall variation as an instrument, I find that individual responsibility has a large positive effect on economic development. The relationships between rainfall variation, individual responsibility and economic development are robust to the inclusion of variables related to climate and agricultural and institutional development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of Chinese activities in sub-Saharan African countries with respect to the growth performance of economies in that region. Using a Solow-type growth model and panel data for the period 1991 to 2010, we find that African economies that export natural resources have benefited from positive terms-of-trade effects. In addition, there is evidence for displacement effects of African firms due to competition from China. On the other hand, Chinese foreign investment and aid in Africa does not appear to have a significant impact on African growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both Spanish and French colonial education included several features that restricted education. Many of them persisted long after independence. Against this background, this paper econometrically studies whether in the recent past the colonial legacy still affected schooling in the ex-colonies of these two former colonial powers - and, for comparison, in the ex-colonies of Britain, the third of the former big three colonial powers. Using a large sample of countries and numerous controls, it finds substantial negative effects on both secondary enrollment and average years of schooling in former French and, especially, in former Spanish colonies. The negative effects on females are particularly large. By contrast, there are no effects in former British colonies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that democracy enhances technological change, the most important determinant of long-term economic growth. It first presents an argument on how and why dictators restrict civil liberties and diffusion of information to survive in office, even if this reduces their personal consumption. The argument predicts that autocracies have slower technological change than democracies, which in turn impairs GDP per capita growth rates. These and other implications from the argument are tested empirically, and so are implications from alternative explanations on the association between democracy and technological change. Drawing on an extensive global dataset, with some time series going back to the early 19th century, the paper reports robust evidence that democracy increases not only technology-induced growth but also net economic growth rates. Notably, the results hold when accounting for the endogeneity of democracy, country-fixed effects, and sample-selection bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: A substantial literature exists on the effects of military expenditures on economic growth, yet no study has analyzed the effects of military occupation other than in anecdotal cases. This paper uses a panel of 214 countries from 1950 to 2013 to study how economic growth is impacted by different forms of military occupation. Transformative occupations aim to establish institutions to promote stability once the occupation ends, while subdual occupations are more malevolent in their objectives. Our results show that transformative occupations produce positive growth in occupied countries after the occupation period concludes. Separating these effects into the short run and long run, we find that while countries subject to a subdual occupation experience a short‐run increase in growth at the end of the occupation, countries with transformative occupation experience long‐run increases in growth. These findings are robust to the inclusion of traditional drivers of growth. Policy implications suggest that regional conflicts that are solved using military intervention may have lasting effects on growth as long as the intentions of the occupying force are transformative in nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on probit estimates, this paper analyzes the effects of fiscal consolidation on the probability of sovereign default in the short run. Using a panel of 104 developing countries from 1980 to 2009 and controlling for various economic, fiscal and political factors, we find that fiscal adjustments in general do not significantly reduce the probability of default even if they are large. Instead, the composition of budget consolidation is decisive in reducing default risk. Expenditure based adjustments are not successful while revenue based adjustments lower the probability of default in the following year by 36 to 55 percent. This finding also holds when economic growth is low or government debt is high as well as when IMF lending is taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen a significant focus in the literature on growth and development on the idea that legal and political institutions are the key determinant of economic development. The main finding of this paper is that the focus on the primacy of legal and political institutions may be misplaced and that business-friendly economic policies (proxied for here by the World Bank's Doing Business indicator) are the key determinant of the level of income per capita. We find that a country's Doing Business rank dominates a range of measures of legal and political institutional quality as an explanatory variable for income per capita. We also find the Doing Business rank to be a key explanatory variable for economic growth and that previous findings assigning a significant role to educational attainment are not robust to the inclusion of this new indicator in growth regressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel analysis about the capabilities of academic researchers and academic poverty. Adopting the capability approach, which Amartya Sen developed to address concerns such as poverty, inequality and development, we shift the focus of analysis and discussion around evaluating academic research and academics in the social sciences from measures of so-called 'quality', 'impact' or 'excellence' to the capabilities of academics. For us, the conceptualization and evaluation of academic research is a question about what academics have reasons to value, and about their ability to achieve valuable beings and doings. It is also about determining what might constitute academic poverty, and what academics are required to do in order to avoid that poverty. Relating our analysis to debates around universities, in particular about quasi-market pressures, we identify the possibility of basic capabilities in academic research, namely: the capabilities that are necessary to fulfill basic academic needs. Our proposition is that there is academic poverty when an academic researcher is not capable of fulfilling basic academic needs, such as: adhering to standards of coherence, robustness and rigour; searching for and disseminating the spirit of the truth. Moreover, if the academic has the capabilities to fulfill those basic academic needs and yet chooses not to do so, she renders herself in a state akin to academic poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines whether and when political embeddedness affects firms' growth. Using a dataset of Chinese A‐share firms from 2008 to 2017, we find that both organizational and individual political embeddedness in firms draws negative effects on corporate growth. Such effects mainly come from political embeddedness created by current and local political actors, compared with former and central ones. Moreover, the "grabbing effects" of political embeddedness vary contingent on focal firms' financial situation, political uncertainty, and regional economic and legal environment. That is, the "grabbing effects" are stronger for financially healthy firms than for financially distressed firms. Political uncertainty created by government official replacement refrains political actors from tunneling benefits from affiliated firms and mitigates the negative effects of political embeddedness. Both economic development and legal completeness are conducive to alleviating the "grabbing effects" of political embeddedness. Overall, our findings enrich and extend the "grabbing hand" theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: We explore whether EU membership has led to faster economic growth. Using different estimation strategies, different time periods, different country samples, and different datasets, we are unable to demonstrate the presence of a membership growth premium. This may reflect that GDP data are too noisy and/or causal identification too complicated, in which case we should remain agnostic about the EU's growth impact. Alternatively, it may reflect that EU membership simply has no effect on economic growth. Either way, these findings urge strong caution about one of EU membership's key alleged benefits: greater economic prosperity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: We examine the impact of labour productivity growth of small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) on labour productivity growth of large firms in a 19‐year panel of 26 European countries. We apply a dynamic panel data model that allows for macro‐level interdependencies in productivity between small and large firms. Our main finding concerns a sizable positive effect of labour productivity increases of SMEs on the productivity of large firms. This positive effect is especially evident for medium‐sized and small firms (rather than micro firms). Furthermore, the impact of SME productivity on large‐firm productivity is increasing with the size of the SME sector. Our analysis indicates that scale effects play a role in the transmission of productivity effects from SMEs to large firms, both in terms of the size of individual SMEs (medium‐sized and small versus micro) and in terms of the share of the SME sector in the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Bringing together the classic defense of liberty and democracy, the political economy of hierarchy, endogenous growth theory, and the new institutional economics on growth, we propose a new institutional theory that identifies democracy's unique advantage in prompting economic growth. We contend that the channel of liberty‐to‐innovation is the most critical channel in which democracy holds a unique advantage over autocracy in promoting growth, especially during the stage of growth via innovation. Our theory thus predicts that democracy holds a positive but indirect effect upon growth via the channel of liberty‐to‐innovation, conditioned by the level of economic development. We then present quantitative evidence for our theory. To our best knowledge, we are the first to propose such an indirect and conditional effect of democracy upon economic development and provide systematic evidence. Our study promises to integrate and reconcile many seemingly unrelated and often contradictory theories and evidence regarding regime and growth, including providing a possible explanation for the inconclusive results from regressing overall regime score against the rate of economic growth or change in level of GDP per capita. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely believed that economic institutions such as competitive markets, the banking system, and the structure of property rights are essential for economic development. But why economic institutions vary across countries and what are their deep origins is still a question that is widely debated in the developmental economics literature. In this study, we provide an empirical test for the provocative hypothesis that the prevalence of infectious diseases influenced the formation of personality traits, cultural values, and even morality at the regional level (the so called Parasite- Stress Theory of Values and Sociality), which then shaped economic institutions across countries. Using the prevalence of pathogens as an instrument for cultural traits such as individualism, we show in a two-stage least squares analysis that various economic institutions, measured by different areas of the index of Economic Freedom by the Heritage Foundation, have their deep origins in the historical prevalence of infectious diseases across countries. Our causal identification strategy suggests that cultural values affect economic institutions even after controlling for a number of confounding variables, geographic controls, and for different sub-samples of countries. We further show that the results are robust to four alternative measures of economic and political institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a novel data set within an instrumental variables framework to test whether the presence and language of constitutional environmental rights influence environmental outcomes. The outcome variables include Yale's Environmental Performance Index and its components. We employ two-stage least squares to account for reverse causality, that is, the possibility that a country which takes steps to protect the environment might also be more likely to constitutionalize environmental rights. Our first stage theory combines constitution norms, opposition costs, and generation effects. Our controls include country income, which means that our study is also related to the Environmental Kuznets Curve literature. We find that constitutions do indeed matter for positive environmental outcomes, which suggests that we should not only pay attention to the incentives confronting polluters and resource users, but also to the incentives and constraints confronting those policymakers who initiate, monitor, and enforce environmental policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bilateral donors have recognized the need to improve the consistency of donors' policies towards developing countries. However, the impact of policy consistency on economic development has not been documented in the literature to date. Our contribution is twofold: firstly, we use the indices provided by the Center for Global Development (CGD) to construct indicators of overall donors' policies performance and donors' policies consistency at the recipient level. Secondly, we assume that the growth-consistency nexus is dynamic and our results suggest that an increase in consistency by one standard deviation increases growth on average by 1,1 percentage point. This result holds for different instrumentation strategies and robustness checks. We also highlight that the overall policy performance (OPP) increases growth above a sufficient level of donors' policies diversification and level of OPP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Generalized morality reflects ethical norms in society about the inappropriateness of behaviors that can cause harm to others. Generalized morality may be an important factor affecting the economic performance of countries. An indicator of generalized morality is constructed from data from the World Values Survey. One question examined is whether generalized morality is correlated with economic growth rates in per capita GDP across a sample of countries, controlling for institutions and other factors expected to affect economic performance. A second question examined is whether the path by which generalized morality affects growth is direct or indirect through generalized trust. The findings reveal that generalized morality is moderately correlated with economic growth, but its effect appears to be manifested through generalized trust when economic institutions are weak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]