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Abstract: Determining consistent sets of vent conditions for next expected eruptions at Vesuvius is crucial for the simulation of the sub-aerial processes originating the volcanic hazard and the eruption impact. Here we refer to the expected eruptive scales and conditions defined in the frame of the EC Exploris project, and simulate the dynamics of magma ascent along the volcanic conduit for sub-steady phases of next eruptions characterized by intensities of the Violent Strombolian (VS), Sub-Plinian 2 (SP2), and Sub-Plinian 1 (SP1) scale. Sets of conditions for the simulations are determined on the basis of the bulk of knowledge on the past history of Vesuvius [Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., Andronico, D., Explosive activity and eruption scenarios at Somma–Vesuvius (Italy): towards a new classification scheme. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, this issue.]. Volatile contents (H2O and CO2) are parameterized in order to account for the uncertainty in their expected amounts for a next eruption. In all cases the flow in the conduit is found to be choked, with velocities at the conduit exit or vent corresponding to the sonic velocity in the two-phase non-equilibrium magmatic mixture. Conduit diameters and vent mixture densities are found to display minimum overlapping between the different eruptive scales, while exit gas and particle velocities, as well as vent pressures, largely overlap. Vent diameters vary from as low as about 5 m for VS eruptions, to 35–55 m for the most violent SP1 eruption scale. Vent pressures can be as low as less than 1 MPa for the lowest volatile content employed of 2 wt.% H2O and no CO2, to 7–8 MPa for highest volatile contents of 5 wt.% H2O and 2 wt.% CO2 and large eruptive scales. Gas and particle velocities at the vent range from 100–250 m/s, with a tendency to decrease, and to increase the mechanical decoupling between the phases, with increasing eruptive scale. Except for velocities, all relevant vent quantities are more sensitive to the volatile content of the discharged magma for the highest eruptive scales considered. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We have performed a parametric study on the dynamics of trachytic (alkaline) versus rhyolitic (calc-alkaline) eruptions by employing a steady, isothermal, multiphase non-equilibrium model of conduit flow and fragmentation. The employed compositions correspond to a typical rhyolite and to trachytic liquids from Phlegrean Fields eruptions, for which detailed viscosity measurements have been performed. The investigated conditions include conduit diameters in the range 30–90 m and total water contents from 2 to 6 wt%, corresponding to mass flow rates in the range 106–108 kg/s. The numerical results show that rhyolites fragment deep in the conduit and at a gas volume fraction ranging from 0.64 to 0.76, while for trachytes fragmentation is found to occur at much shallower levels and higher vesicularities (0.81–0.85). An unexpected result is that low-viscosity trachytes can be associated with lower mass flow rates with respect to more viscous rhyolites. This is due to the non-linear combined effects of viscosity and water solubility affecting the whole eruption dynamics. The lower viscosity of trachytes, together with higher water solubility, results in delayed fragmentation, or in a longer bubbly flow region within the conduit where viscous forces are dominant. Therefore, the total dissipation due to viscous forces can be higher for the less viscous trachytic magma, depending on the specific conditions and trachytic composition employed. The fragmentation conditions determined through the simulations agree with measured vesicularities in natural pumice clasts of both magma compositions. In fact, vesicularities average 0.80 in pumice from alkaline eruptions at Phlegrean Fields, while they tend to be lower in most calc-alkaline pumices. The results of numerical simulations suggest that higher vesicularities in alkaline products are related to delayed fragmentation of magmas with this composition. Despite large differences in the distribution of flow variables which occur in the deep conduit region and at fragmentation, the flow dynamics of rhyolites and trachytes in the upper conduit and at the vent can be very similar, at equal conduit size and total water content. This is consistent with similar phenomenologies of eruptions associated with the two magma types. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The AD 79 eruption of Vesuvius is certainly one of the most investigated explosive eruptions in the world. This makes it particularly suitable for the application of numerical models since we can be quite confident about input data, and the model predictions can be compared with field-based reconstruction of the eruption dynamics. Magma ascent along the volcanic conduit and the dispersal of pyroclasts in the atmosphere were simulated. The conduit and atmospheric domain were coupled through the flow conditions computed at the conduit exit. We simulated two different peak phases of the eruption which correspond to the emplacement of the white and gray magma types that produced Plinian fallout deposits with interlayered pyroclastic flow units during the gray phase. The input data, independently constrained and representative of each of the two eruptive phases, consist of liquid magma composition, crystal and water content, mass flow rate, and pressure–temperature–depth of the magma at the conduit entrance. A parametric study was performed on the less constrained variables such as microlite content of magma, pressure at the conduit entrance, and particle size representative of the eruptive mixture. Numerical results are substantially consistent with the reconstructed eruptive dynamics. In particular, the white eruption phase is found to lead to a fully buoyant eruption plume in all cases investigated, whereas the gray phase shows a more transitional character, i.e. the simultaneous production of a buoyant convective plume and pyroclastic surges, with a significant influence of the microlite content of magma in determining the partition of pyroclast mass between convective plumes and pyroclastic flows. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The recent eruption of Stromboli in February–April 2007 offered a unique chance to test our current understanding of processes driving the transition from ordinary (persistent Strombolian) to effusive activity, and the ability of instrumental geophysical and geochemical networks to interpret and predict these events. Here, we report on the results of two years of in-situ sensing of the CO2/SO2 ratio in Stromboli''s volcanic gas plume, in the attempt to put constraints on the trigger mechanisms and dynamics of the eruption. We show that large variations of the plume CO2/SO2 ratio (range, 0.9–26) preceded the onset of the eruption (since December 2007), interrupting a period of relatively-steady and low ratios (time-averaged ratio, 4.3) lasting from at least May to November 2006. By contrasting our observations with numerical simulations of volcanic degassing at Stromboli, derived by use of an equilibrium saturation model, we suggest that the pre-eruptive increase of the ratio reflected an enhanced supply of deeply-derived CO2-rich gas bubbles to the shallow-plumbing system. This larger-than-normal ascent of gas bubbles was likely sourced by a 1–3 km deep gas–melt separation region (probably a magma storage zone), and caused faster convective overturning of magmas in the shallow conduit; an increase in the explosive rate and in seismic tremor, and finally the collapse of the la Sciara del Fuoco sector triggering the effusive phase. The high CO2/SO2 ratios (up to 21) observed during the effusive phase, and particularly in the days and hours before a paroxysmal explosion on March 15, 2007, indicate the persistence of the same gas source; and suggest that de-pressurization of the same 1–3 km deep magma storage zone could have been the trigger mechanism for the paroxysm itself. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]