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: Introduction: Long‐acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB‐LA) demonstrated superiority to daily tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the HPTN 083/084 trials. We compared the potential impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering CAB‐LA to men who have sex with men (MSM) in Atlanta (US), Montreal (Canada) and the Netherlands, settings with different HIV epidemics. Methods: Three risk‐stratified HIV transmission models were independently parameterized and calibrated to local data. In Atlanta, Montreal and the Netherlands, the models, respectively, estimated mean TDF/FTC coverage starting at 29%, 7% and 4% in 2022, and projected HIV incidence per 100 person‐years (PY), respectively, decreasing from 2.06 to 1.62, 0.08 to 0.03 and 0.07 to 0.001 by 2042. Expansion of PrEP coverage was simulated by recruiting new CAB‐LA users and by switching different proportions of TDF/FTC users to CAB‐LA. Population effectiveness and efficiency of PrEP expansions were evaluated over 20 years in comparison to baseline scenarios with TDF/FTC only. Results: Increasing PrEP coverage by 11 percentage points (pp) from 29% to 40% by 2032 was expected to avert a median 36% of new HIV acquisitions in Atlanta. Substantially larger increases (by 33 or 26 pp) in PrEP coverage (to 40% or 30%) were needed to achieve comparable reductions in Montreal and the Netherlands, respectively. A median 17 additional PYs on PrEP were needed to prevent one acquisition in Atlanta with 40% PrEP coverage, compared to 1000+ in Montreal and 4000+ in the Netherlands. Reaching 50% PrEP coverage by 2032 by recruiting CAB‐LA users among PrEP‐eligible MSM could avert >45% of new HIV acquisitions in all settings. Achieving targeted coverage 5 years earlier increased the impact by 5–10 pp. In the Atlanta model, PrEP expansions achieving 40% and 50% coverage reduced differences in PrEP access between PrEP‐indicated White and Black MSM from 23 to 9 pp and 4 pp, respectively. Conclusions: Achieving high PrEP coverage by offering CAB‐LA can impact the HIV epidemic substantially if rolled out without delays. These PrEP expansions may be efficient in settings with high HIV incidence (like Atlanta) but not in settings with low HIV incidence (like Montreal and the Netherlands)., INTRODUCTION Two clinical studies (HPTN 083 and HPTN 084) have shown that long‐acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB‐LA) pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) given every 8 weeks is highly efficacious at preventing HIV among [...]

: Introduction: Multiple antiretroviral agents have demonstrated efficacy for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). As a result, clinical trials of novel agents have transitioned from placebo‐ to active‐controlled designs; however, active‐controlled trials do not provide an estimate of efficacy versus no use of PrEP. Counterfactual placebo comparisons using other data sources could be employed to provide this information. Methods: We compared the active‐controlled study (HPTN 084) of injectable cabotegravir (CAB‐LA) versus daily oral emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (FTC/TDF) among women from seven countries in Africa to three external, contemporaneous randomized HIV prevention trials from which we constructed counterfactual placebo estimates. We used direct standardization via analysis weights to achieve the same distribution of person‐years between the external study and HPTN 084, across strata predictive of HIV risk (country and selected risk covariates). We estimated prevention efficacy against a counterfactual placebo to provide information on the use of CAB‐LA and FTC/TDF compared to no intervention. We compared the counterfactual placebo findings for FTC/TDF to previous placebo‐controlled trials, adjusted for observed adherence to daily pills. Results: Distribution of age and baseline prevalence of gonorrhoea and chlamydia were similar among matched counterfactual placebo and observed HPTN 084 arms after standardization. Counterfactual estimates of CAB‐LA versus placebo in all three settings showed a consistent risk reduction of 93%–94%, with lower bounds of the confidence intervals above 72%. Observed adherence (quantifiable tenofovir in plasma) in HPTN 084 was 54%–56%, and estimated efficacy of daily oral FTC/TDF against a counterfactual placebo was consistent with a predicted risk reduction of 39%–40% for this level of daily pill use. Conclusions: Counterfactual placebo rates of HIV acquisition derived from external trial data in similar locations and time can be used to support estimates of placebo‐based efficacy of a novel HIV prevention agent. External trial data must be standardized to be representative of the clinical trial cohort testing the novel HIV prevention agent, accounting for confounders., INTRODUCTION The daily oral pill pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) regimen containing emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (FTC/TDF) reduces human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) by >90%, when used as prescribed [1–3]. While “biological efficacy” of [...]

IntroductionPeople who inject drugs (PWID) experience high HIV incidence and face significant barriers to engagement in HIV care and substance use treatment. Strategies for HIV treatment as prevention and substance use treatment present unique challenges in PWID that may vary regionally. Understanding differences in the risk structure for HIV transmission and disease progression among PWID is essential in developing and effectively targeting intervention strategies of HIV treatment as prevention.MethodsWe present a baseline analysis of HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 074, a two-arm, randomized controlled trial among PWID in Indonesia (n = 258), Ukraine (n = 457) and Vietnam (n = 439). HPTN 074 was designed to determine the feasibility, barriers and uptake of an integrated intervention combining health systems navigation and psychosocial counselling for the early engagement of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and substance use treatment for PWID living with HIV. Discordant PWID networks were enrolled, consisting of an HIV-positive index and their HIV-negative network injection partner(s). Among the enrolled cohort of 1154 participants (502 index participants and 652 network partners), we examine regional differences in the baseline risk structure, including sociodemographics, HIV and substance use treatment history, and injection and sexual risk behaviours.ResultsThe majority of participants were male (87%), with 82% of the enrolled females coming from Ukraine. The overall mean age was 34 (IQR: 30, 38). Most commonly injected substances included illegally manufactured methadone in Ukraine (84.2%), and heroin in Indonesia (81.8%) and Vietnam (99.5%). Injection network sizes varied by region: median number of people with whom participants self-reported injecting drugs was 3 (IQR: 2, 5) in Indonesia, 5 (IQR: 3, 10) in Ukraine and 3 (IQR: 2, 4) in Vietnam. Hazardous alcohol use, assessed using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Alcohol Consumption Questions (AUDIT-C), was prominent in Ukraine (54.7%) and Vietnam (26.4%). Reported sexual risk behaviours in the past month, including having two or more sex partners and giving/receiving money or drugs in exchange for sex, were uncommon among all participants and regions.ConclusionsWhile regional differences in risk structure exist, PWID particularly in Ukraine need immediate attention for risk reduction strategies. Substantial regional differences in risk structure will require flexible, tailored treatment as prevention interventions for distinct PWID populations.