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The impacts of a tropical cyclone after landfall depend not only on storm intensity but also on the size and structure of the wind field. Hence, a simple predictive model for the wind field after landfall has significant potential value. This work tests existing theory for wind structure and size over the ocean against idealized axisymmetric landfall experiments in which the surface beneath a mature storm is instantaneously dried and roughened individually or simultaneously. Structure theory captures the response of the low-level wind field to different types of idealized landfalls, given the intensity and size response. Storm size, modeled to follow the ratio of simulated time-dependent storm intensity to the Coriolis parameter , can generally predict the transient response of the storm gale wind radii r34kt to inland surface forcings, particularly for at least moderate surface roughening regardless of the level of drying. Given knowledge of the intensity evolution, the above results combine to yield a theoretical model that can predict the full tangential wind field response to idealized landfalls. Significance Statement A theoretical model that can predict the time-dependent wind field structure of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) with a small number of physical, observable input parameters is essential for mitigating hazards and allocating public resources. This work provides a first-order prediction of storm size and structure after landfall, which can be combined with existing intensity predictions to form a simple model describing the inland wind field evolution. Results show its potential utility for modeling idealized inland TC wind fields.

Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting), and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective "average event." We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT's capacities on a wave-mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass (1976), which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also \emph{backward in time} to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the \emph{reactive current}. The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures (main text), 19 pages, 1 figure (supplement). Accepted for publication in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Many atmosphere and climate phenomena lie in the gray zone between weather and climate: they are not amenable to deterministic forecast, but they still depend on the initial condition. A natural example is medium-range forecasting, which is inherently probabilistic because it lies beyond the deterministic predictability time of the atmosphere, but for which statistically significant prediction can be made, which depends on the current state of the system. Similarly, one may ask the probability of occurrence of an El Niño event several months ahead of time. We introduce a quantity that corresponds precisely to this type of prediction problem: the committor function is the probability that an event takes place within a given time window, as a function of the initial condition. We compute it in the case of a low-dimensional stochastic model for El Niño, the Jin and Timmermann model. In this context, we show that the ability to predict the probability of occurrence of the event of interest may differ strongly depending on the initial state. The main result is the new distinction between probabilistic predictability (when the committor function is smooth and probability can be computed, which does not depend sensitively on the initial condition) and probabilistic unpredictability (when the committor function depends sensitively on the initial condition). We also demonstrate that the Jin and Timmermann model might be the first example of a stochastic differential equation with weak noise for which transition between attractors does not follow the Arrhenius law, which is expected based on large deviation theory and generic hypothesis. Significance Statement A key problem for atmospheric and climate phenomena is to predict events beyond the time scale over which deterministic weather forecast is possible. In a simple model of El Niño, we demonstrate the existence of two regimes, depending on initial conditions. For initial conditions in the “probabilistic predictability” regime, the system is unpredictable deterministically because of chaos, but the probability of occurrence of the event can still be predicted because it depends only weakly on the initial condition. In the “probabilistic unpredictability” regime, even predicting probabilities is difficult, because the probability depends strongly on initial conditions. These new concepts of probabilistic predictability and unpredictability should be key in understanding the predictability potential for rare events in climate problems, as well as in other complex dynamics.

In theoretical models of tropical dynamics, the effects of both surface friction and upward wave radiation through interaction with the stratosphere are oft-ignored, as they greatly complicate mathematical analysis. In this study, we relax the rigid-lid assumption and impose surface drag, which allows the barotropic mode to be excited in equatorial waves. In particular, a previously developed set of linear, strict quasi-equilibrium tropospheric equations is coupled with a dry, passive stratosphere, and surface drag is added to the troposphere momentum equations. Theoretical and numerical model analysis is performed on the model in the limits of an inviscid surface coupled to a stratosphere, as well as a frictional surface under a rigid lid. This study confirms and extends previous research that shows the presence of a stratosphere strongly shifts the growth rates of fast-propagating equatorial waves to larger scales, reddening the equatorial power spectrum. The growth rates of modes that are slowly propagating and highly interactive with cloud radiation are shown to be negligibly affected by the presence of a stratosphere. Surface friction in this model framework acts as purely a damping mechanism and couples the baroclinic mode to the barotropic mode, increasing the poleward extent of the equatorial waves. Numerical solutions of the coupled troposphere–stratosphere model with surface friction show that the stratosphere stratification controls the extent of tropospheric trapping of the barotropic mode, and thus the poleward extent of the wave. The superposition of phase-shifted barotropic and first baroclinic modes is also shown to lead to an eastward vertical tilt in the dynamical fields of Kelvin wave–like modes.

Flow over a surface can be stratified by imposing a fixed mean vertical temperature (density) gradient profile throughout or via cooling at the surface. These distinct mechanisms can act simultaneously to establish a stable stratification in a flow. Here, we perform a series of direct numerical simulations of open-channel flows to study adaptation of a neutrally stratified turbulent flow under the combined or independent action of the aforementioned mechanisms. We force the fully developed flow with a constant mass flow rate. This flow forcing technique enables us to keep the bulk Reynolds number constant throughout our investigation and avoid complications arising from the acceleration of the bulk flow when a constant pressure gradient approach were to be adopted to force the flow instead. When both stratification mechanisms are active, the dimensionless stratification perturbation number emerges as an external flow control parameter, in addition to the Reynolds, Froude, and Prandtl numbers. We demonstrate that significant deviations from the Monin-Obukhov similarity formulation are possible when both types of stratification mechanisms are active within an otherwise weakly stable flow, even when the flux Richardson number is well below 0.2. An extended version of the similarity theory due to Zilitinkevich and Calanca shows promise in predicting the dimensionless shear for cases where both types of stratification mechanisms are active, but the extended theory is less accurate for gradients of scalar. The degree of deviation from neutral dimensionless shear as a function of the vertical coordinate emerges as a qualitative measure of the strength of stable stratification for all the cases investigated in this study., Comment: revised manuscript submitted to the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Recent observations have indicated significant modulation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) by the phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during boreal winter. Composites of the MJO show that upper tropospheric ice cloud fraction and water vapor anomalies are generally collocated, and that an eastward tilt with height in cloud fraction exists. Through radiative transfer calculations, it is shown that ice clouds have a stronger tropospheric radiative forcing than do water vapor anomalies, highlighting the importance of incorporating upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric processes into simple models of the MJO. The coupled troposphere-stratosphere linear model previously developed by the authors is extended by including a mean wind in the stratosphere and a prognostic equation for cirrus clouds, which are forced dynamically and allowed to modulate tropospheric radiative cooling, similar to the effect of tropospheric water vapor in previous formulations. Under these modifications, the model still produces a slow, eastward propagating mode that resembles the MJO. The sign of zonal mean wind in the stratosphere is shown to control both the upward wave propagation and tropospheric vertical structure of the mode. Under varying stratospheric wind and interactive cirrus cloud radiation, the MJO-like mode has weaker growth rates under stratospheric westerlies than easterlies, consistent with the observed MJO-QBO relationship. These results are directly attributable to an enhanced barotropic mode under QBO easterlies. It is also shown that differential zonal advection of cirrus clouds leads to weaker growth rates under stratospheric westerlies than easterlies. Implications and limitations of the linear theory are discussed.

The dynamics and momentum budget of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are examined in ERA5. Because of ERA5’s higher spatial resolution compared to its predecessors, it is capable of resolving a broader spectrum of atmospheric waves and allows for a better representation of the wave–mean flow interactions, both of which are of crucial importance for QBO studies. It is shown that the QBO-induced mean meridional circulation, which is mainly confined to the winter hemisphere, is strong enough to interrupt the tropical upwelling during the descent of the westerly shear zones. Since the momentum advection tends to damp the QBO, the wave forcing is responsible for both the downward propagation and for the maintenance of the QBO. It is shown that half the required wave forcing is provided by resolved waves during the descent of both westerly and easterly regimes. Planetary-scale waves account for most of the resolved wave forcing of the descent of westerly shear zones and small-scale gravity (SSG) waves with wavelengths shorter than 2000 km account for the remainder. SSG waves account for most of the resolved forcing of the descent of the easterly shear zones. The representation of the mean fields in the QBO is very similar in ERA5 and ERA-Interim but the resolved wave forcing is substantially stronger in ERA5. The contributions of the various equatorially trapped wave modes to the QBO forcing are documented in Part II.

This work develops a theoretical model for steady thermodynamic and kinematic profiles for severe convective storm environments, building off of the two-layer static energy framework developed in Agard and Emanuel (2017). The model is phrased in terms of static energy, and it allows for independent variation of the boundary layer and free troposphere separated by a capping inversion. An algorithm is presented to apply the model to generate a sounding for numerical simulations of severe convective storms, and the model is compared and contrasted with that of Weisman and Klemp. The model is then fit to a case-study sounding associated with the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak, and its potential utility is demonstrated via idealized numerical simulation experiments. A long-lived supercell is successfully simulated with the historical sounding but not the analogous theoretical sounding. Two types of example experiments are then performed that do simulate a long-lived supercell: 1) a semi-theoretical experiment in which a portion of the theoretical sounding is modified to match the real sounding (low-level moisture); 2) a fully-theoretical experiment in which a model physical parameter is modified (free-tropospheric relative humidity). Overall, the construction of this minimal model is flexible and amenable to additional modifications as needed. The model offers a novel framework that may be useful for testing how severe convective storms depend on the vertical structure of the hydrostatic environment, as well as for linking variability in these environments to the physical processes that produce them within the climate system., Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, accepted in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 2020-10-26

Vertically banded zonal jets are frequently observed in weakly or non-rotating stratified turbulence, with the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere and the ocean's equatorial deep jets being two examples. Explaining the formation of jets in stratified turbulence is a fundamental problem in geophysical fluid dynamics. Statistical state dynamics (SSD) provides powerful methods for analyzing turbulent systems exhibiting emergent organization, such as banded jets. In SSD, dynamical equations are written directly for the evolution of the turbulence statistics, enabling direct analysis of the statistical interactions between the incoherent component of the turbulence and the coherent large-scale structure component that underlie jet formation. A second-order closure of SSD, known as S3T, has previously been applied to show that meridionally banded jets emerge in barotropic beta-plane turbulence via a statistical instability referred to as the zonostrophic instability. Two-dimensional Boussinesq turbulence provides a simple model of non-rotating stratified turbulence analogous to the beta-plane model of planetary turbulence. Jets known as vertically sheared horizontal flows (VSHFs) often emerge in simulations of Boussinesq turbulence, but their dynamics is not yet clearly understood. In this work S3T analysis of the zonostrophic instability is extended to study VSHF emergence in two-dimensional Boussinesq turbulence using an analytical formulation of S3T amenable to perturbation stability analysis. VSHFs are shown to form via an instability that is analogous in stratified turbulence to the zonostrophic instability in beta-plane turbulence. This instability is shown to be strikingly similar to the zonostrophic instability, suggesting that jet emergence in both geostrophic and non-rotating stratified turbulence may be understood as instances of the same generic phenomenon., Re-submitted to Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Vortex-split sudden stratospheric warmings (S-SSWs) are investigated by using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), a spherical barotropic quasi-geostrophic (QG) model, and equilibrium statistical mechanics. The QG model reproduces well the evolution of the composite potential vorticity (PV) field obtained from JRA-55 by considering a time-dependent effective topography given by the composite height field of the 550 K potential temperature surface. The zonal-wavenumber-2 component of the effective topography is the most essential feature required to observe the vortex splitting. The statistical-mechanics theory predicts a large-scale steady state as the most probable outcome of turbulent stirring, and such a state can be computed without solving the QG dynamics. The theory is applied to a disk domain, which is modeled on the north polar cap in the stratosphere. The equilibrium state is obtained by computing the maximum of an entropy functional. In the range of parameters relevant to the winter stratosphere, this state is anticyclonic. By contrast, cyclonic states are quasi-stationary states corresponding to saddle points of the entropy functional. The theoretical calculations are compared with the results of the quasi-static experiment in which the wavenumber-2 topographic amplitude is increased linearly and slowly with time. The results suggest that S-SSWs can be qualitatively interpreted as the transition from the cyclonic quasi-stationary state toward the anticyclonic equilibrium state. The polar vortex splits during the transition toward the equilibrium state. Without any forcing such as radiative cooling, the anticyclonic equilibrium state would be realized sufficiently after an S-SSW., Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures

The polar vortices play a crucial role in the formation of the ozone hole and can cause severe weather anomalies. Their boundaries, known as the vortex `edges', are typically identified via methods that are either frame-dependent or return non-material structures, and hence are unsuitable for assessing material transport barriers. Using two-dimensional velocity data on isentropic surfaces in the northern hemisphere, we show that elliptic Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) identify the correct outermost material surface dividing the coherent vortex core from the surrounding incoherent surf zone. Despite the purely kinematic construction of LCSs, we find a remarkable contrast in temperature and ozone concentration across the identified vortex boundary. We also show that potential vorticity-based methods, despite their simplicity, misidentify the correct extent of the vortex edge. Finally, exploiting the shrinkage of the vortex at various isentropic levels, we observe a trend in the magnitude of vertical motion inside the vortex which is consistent with previous results.

In a recent paper, Romps (JAS, vol.72, p.3639-3646, 2015, hereafter R15) argues that the moist-air static energy (MSE) is only approximately conserved for an adiabatically lifted parcel, and that the quantity "MSE - CAPE" could be used as a true conserved variable, where CAPE is the convective available energy. It is shown in this comment that the quantity denoted by CAPE in R15 is the opposite of the convective available energy. It is explained that the vertical adiabatic ascent considered in R15 is not realistic, since it generates condensed water of the order of 10 to 20 g/kg at height above 6 km. Moreover, the thermodynamic equations are written in R15 by making several assumptions, not all of which are explicitly mentioned. This comment aims to clarify the hypotheses made in R15. It will show that these assumptions call into question the validity of the moist-air internal energy, enthalpy and entropy functions in R15. It also demonstrates that it is possible to obtain more precise and general formulations for moist-air energy, enthalpy and entropy functions, in particular by using the third law of thermodynamics. The large differences between the thermodynamics formulas derived in R15 and those depending on the third law are illustrated by studying a realistic pseudo-adiabatic vertical profile. The same notations as in R15 will be used as far as possible in this comment., Comment: 13 pages, 5 figure, 1 Table. Revised version 4 December 2015

A low Mach number model for moist atmospheric flows is introduced that accurately incorporates reversible moist processes in flows whose features of interest occur on advective rather than acoustic time scales. Total water is used as a prognostic variable, so that water vapor and liquid water are diagnostically recovered as needed from an exact Clausius–Clapeyron formula for moist thermodynamics. Low Mach number models can be computationally more efficient than a fully compressible model, but the low Mach number formulation introduces additional mathematical and computational complexity because of the divergence constraint imposed on the velocity field. Here, latent heat release is accounted for in the source term of the constraint by estimating the rate of phase change based on the time variation of saturated water vapor subject to the thermodynamic equilibrium constraint. The authors numerically assess the validity of the low Mach number approximation for moist atmospheric flows by contrasting the low Mach number solution to reference solutions computed with a fully compressible formulation for a variety of test problems.

This paper presents a simple analytical framework for the dynamic response of cirrus to a local radiative flux convergence, expressible in terms of three independent modes of cloud evolution. Horizontally narrow and tenuous clouds within a stable environment adjust to radiative heating by ascending gradually across isentropes while spreading sufficiently fast that isentropic surfaces stay nearly flat. Alternatively, optically dense clouds experience very concentrated heating, and if they are also very broad, they develop a convecting mixed layer. Along-isentropic spreading still occurs, but in the form of turbulent density currents rather than laminar flows. A third adjustment mode relates to evaporation, which erodes cloudy air as it lofts, regardless of its optical density. The dominant mode is determined from two dimensionless numbers, whose predictive power is shown in comparisons with high-resolution numerical cloud simulations. The power and simplicity of the approach hints that fast, subgrid-scale radiative–dynamic atmospheric interactions might be efficiently parameterized within slower, coarse-grid climate models.

Low-order equal-time statistics of a barotropic flow on a rotating sphere are investigated. The flow is driven by linear relaxation toward an unstable zonal jet. For relatively short relaxation times, the flow is dominated by critical-layer waves. For sufficiently long relaxation times, the flow is turbulent. Statistics obtained from a second-order cumulant expansion are compared to those accumulated in direct numerical simulations, revealing the strengths and limitations of the expansion for different relaxation times., 23 pages, 8 figures. Version to appear in J. Atmos. Sci

We describe and evaluate the contribution of sling effect into the collision rate of the same-size water droplets in turbulent clouds. We show that already for Stokes numbers exceeding 0.2 the sling effect gives a contribution comparable to Saffman-Turner contribution, which may explain why the latter consistently underestimates collision rate (even with the account of preferential concentration)., 7 pages, 6 figures; preprint submitted to Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Employing daily wind data from the ECMWF, we perform passive particle advection to estimate the Lagrangian velocity correlation functions (LVCF) associated with the midlatitude tropospheric flow. In particular we decompose the velocity field into time mean and transient (or eddy) components to better understand the nature of the LVCF's. A closely related quantity, the absolute dispersion (AD) is also examined. Given the anisotropy of the flow, meridional and zonal characteristics are considered separately. The zonal LVCF is seen to be non-exponential. In fact, for intermediate timescales it can either be interpreted as a power law of the form $\tau^{-\alpha}$ with $ 0, Comment: Revised version. Submitted to JAS

Horizontally oriented plates in clouds generate a sharp specular reflectance signal in the glint direction, often referred to as “subsun.” This signal (amplitude and width) may be used to analyze the relative area fraction of oriented plates in the cloud-top layer and their characteristic tilt angle to the horizontal. Use is made of spaceborne measurements from the Polarization and Directionality of the Earth Reflectances (POLDER) instrument to provide a statistical analysis of these parameters. More than half of the clouds show a detectable maximum reflectance in the glint direction, although this maximum may be rather faint. The typical effective fraction (area weighted) of oriented plates in clouds lies between 10−3 and 10−2. For those oriented plates, the characteristic tilt angle is less than 1° in most cases. These low fractions imply that the impact of oriented plates on the cloud albedo is insignificant. The largest proportion of clouds with horizontally oriented plates is found in the range 500– 700 hPa, in agreement with typical in situ observation of plates in clouds. A simple aerodynamic model is proposed that accounts for the orienting torque of the flow as the plate falls under its own gravity and the disorienting effects of Brownian motion and atmospheric turbulence. The model indicates that the horizontal plate diameters are in the range 0.1 to a few millimeters. For such sizes, Brownian forces have a negligible impact on the plate orientation. On the other hand, typical levels of atmospheric turbulence lead to tilt angles that are similar to those estimated from the glint observation.