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Abstract: Objective: In some nursing home populations, antibiotic treatment may not reduce mortality following lower respiratory infection (LRI). To better inform treatment decisions, we determined influences on mortality following LRI among antibiotic-treated and non–antibiotic-treated residents in 2 populations. Design: Observational, prospective, cohort studies. Setting: Ninety-seven nursing homes (36 US, 61 Netherlands). Participants: Residents (1044 US, 513 Netherlands) who met a standardized study definition for LRI. Measurements: Demographics, symptoms and physical findings of LRI, functional status, major illness diagnoses, dementia status, treatments, and date of death within 6 months after diagnosis. Methods: We estimated a 2-period (0–14/15–90 days) weighted proportional hazards model of mortality for antibiotic-treated (n = 1280) and non–antibiotic-treated (n = 277) residents; both weights and regressors provide “doubly robust” risk adjustment—for LRI (illness) severity using a prognostic score and for nonrandom receipt of antibiotic treatment using a propensity score. Results: In both the United States and the Netherlands, 14-day mortality was associated with three factors—LRI severity, water intake at diagnosis, and antibiotic use (not directly by severe dementia)—that accounted for 82% or, sequentially, 39%, 42%, and 1% of the cross-national mortality difference. The LRI Severity Score (based only on at-diagnosis eating dependency, pulse rate, decreased alertness, and breathing difficulty, with adequate discrimination [c ≥ 0.74] and calibration, and cross-indexed to commonly used LRI mortality measures) was related to mortality through 90 days, regardless of treatment. With sufficient water intake at diagnosis, 14-day mortality was unrelated to not receiving antibiotic treatment (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.70–2.04); insufficient water intake was related to increased 14-day mortality with antibiotics (AHR, 1.90; 1.38–2.60) or without (AHR, 7.12; 4.83–10.5). After 14 days, relative mortality worsened for antibiotic-treated residents with insufficient water intake. Inadequate water intake was related to increased eating dependence at onset of the LRI (OR, 4.2; 3.0–5.8). Conclusion: LRI severity, water intake, and antibiotic use explain mortality in both studies and reconcile cross-study Dutch/US 14-day mortality differences. LRI severity, derived at 14 days, is related to mortality through 90 days, regardless of treatment, and is key to risk adjustment. With adequate hydration, the survival benefit from antibiotic use is nonsignificant. Conversely, hydration, even without antibiotic treatment, appears central to curative treatment. In LRI guidelines, treatment, and research, the relative benefits of antibiotics and hydration for curative treatment should be addressed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objective: Prognostic information is important for guiding palliative care planning for patients with dementia. We aim to validate a risk score that uses Minimum Data Set (MDS) to estimate 6-month mortality for nursing home residents with advanced dementia., Design: Two cohort studies., Setting: Six nursing homes in The Netherlands, and 35 nursing homes in Missouri., Participants: Long-term stay residents with advanced dementia: 288 Dutch residents and 269 residents from Missouri who also had a lower respiratory tract infection (LRI)., Measurements: Patient risk factors and 6-month mortality., Results: Six-month mortality rates were 24.3% for Dutch residents, and 36.8% for US residents. The risk score's AUROC was 0.65 (CI 0.58-0.72), and 0.64 (CI 0.58-0.71), respectively. For the large majority of residents, observed mortality in the 2 validation cohorts were comparable to the development cohort. Among the few residents identified as at very high risk according to the risk score, observed mortality was lower than expected., Conclusion: The original mortality risk score predicted 6-month mortality with reasonable accuracy in 2 validation cohorts of nursing home residents with advanced dementia. Thus, the performance of the risk score, at least over the range of low to moderate risk (up to around 40% risk of mortality), can be generalized to long-stay (versus recently admitted) residents with advanced dementia, and to those with LRI.

Objective: To examine long-term mortality and its determinants in nursing home residents with dementia diagnosed with a lower respiratory tract infection (LRI)., Setting and Patients: US (Missouri) nursing home residents (541) and Dutch residents (403) with dementia who were treated with antibiotics for an LRI., Methods: Prospective studies of nursing home-acquired LRI in the US (Missouri) and in the Netherlands. Measurements included demographics, indicators of acute illness, general health condition, intake problems, and comorbid disease. Six-month mortality rates were calculated and Cox proportional hazards models were developed for mortality up to 2 years after diagnosis., Results: Six-month mortality was 48.8% among Dutch residents and 36.4% among US residents. After multivariable adjustment, Dutch nationality was not associated with higher long-term mortality. Variables most strongly associated with long-term mortality were activity of daily living dependency and male gender. Other variables associated with outcome were diverse: respiratory difficulty, age, dehydration, congestive heart failure, decreased alertness, decubitus ulcers, Parkinson disease, weight loss/poor nutrition, and pulse rate., Conclusion: LRI is followed by substantial mortality in the months after diagnosis, indicating high frailty of nursing home residents with dementia who develop LRI. A variety of patient characteristics, including many not directly related to LRI, were consistently associated with long-term mortality in two cohorts with differing illness severity. The results are relevant for informing families, evaluating poor long-term survival in the context of care and treatment, and balancing the potential burdens and benefits of care.