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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) plays an important role in the comparison of competing risks in a competing risks model. Its value at time t is the probability of failure by time t from a particular type of risk in the presence of other risks. In this paper we consider the estimation of two CIFs, F 1 and F 2 , corresponding to two competing risks when the ratio R (t) ≡ F 1 (t) / F 2 (t) is nondecreasing in t > 0. First, we derive their nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLE) of these CIFs in the continuous case under this order constraint and show that they are inconsistent. We then develop projection-type estimators that are uniformly strongly consistent and study the weak convergence of the resulting processes. Through simulations, we compare the finite sample performance of the NPMLEs and our estimators and show that our estimators outperform them in general in terms of mean square error at all the scenarios that we consider. We also develop a test for the presence of this order constraint and extend all these results to the censored case. To illustrate the applicability of the theory we develop, we provide a real life example. • Uniformly consistent estimation of two cumulative incidence functions in a competing risks model when the ratio is monotonic. • Weak convergence of the estimators of two cumulative incidence functions in a competing risks model when the ratio is monotonic. • Test of equality of two cumulative incidence functions against the alternative that their ratio is monotonic in a competing risks model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We offer an umbrella type result which extends weak convergence of classical empirical processes on the line to that of more general processes indexed by functions of bounded variation. This extension is not contingent on the type of dependence of the underlying sequence of random variables. As a consequence we establish weak convergence for stationary empirical processes indexed by general classes of functions under α -mixing conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Detection of changes in health care performance, financial markets, and industrial processes have recently gained momentum due to the increased availability of complex data in real-time. As a consequence, there has been a growing demand in developing statistically rigorous methodologies for change-point detection in various types of data. In many practical situations, the data being monitored for the purpose of detecting changes are autocorrelated binary time series. We propose a new statistical procedure based on the partial likelihood score process for the retrospective detection of change in the coefficients of a logistic regression model with AR(p)-type autocorrelations. We carry out some Monte Carlo experiments to evaluate the power of the detection procedure as well as its probability of false alarm (type I error). We illustrate the utility using data on 30-day mortality rates after cardiac surgery and to data on IBM share transactions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We investigate the properties of Baker's (2008) bivariate distributions with fixed marginals and their multivariate extensions. The properties include the weak convergence to the Fréchet–Hoeffding upper bound, the product-moment convergence, as well as the dependence structures TP2 (totally positive of order 2), or MTP2 (multivariate TP2). In proving the weak convergence, a generalized local limit theorem for binomial distribution is provided. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We wish to test the null hypothesis if the means of N panels remain the same during the observation period of length T. A quasi-likelihood argument leads to self-normalized statistics whose limit distribution under the null hypothesis is double exponential. The main results are derived assuming that the each panel is based on independent observations and then extended to linear processes. The proofs are based on an approximation of the sum of squared CUSUM processes using the Skorokhod embedding scheme. A simulation study illustrates that our results can be used in case of small and moderate N and T. We apply our results to detect change in the “corruption index”. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper is concerned with inference about the dependence or association between two random variables conditionally upon the given value of a covariate. A way to describe such a conditional dependence is via a conditional copula function. Nonparametric estimators for a conditional copula then lead to nonparametric estimates of conditional association measures such as a conditional Kendall''s tau. The limiting distributions of nonparametric conditional copula estimators are rather involved. In this paper we propose a bootstrap procedure for approximating these distributions and their characteristics, and establish its consistency. We apply the proposed bootstrap procedure for constructing confidence intervals for conditional association measures, such as a conditional Blomqvist beta and a conditional Kendall''s tau. The performances of the proposed methods are investigated via a simulation study involving a variety of models, ranging from models in which the dependence (weak or strong) on the covariate is only through the copula and not through the marginals, to models in which this dependence appears in both the copula and the marginal distributions. As a conclusion we provide practical recommendations for constructing bootstrap-based confidence intervals for the discussed conditional association measures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Extreme-value copulas arise in the asymptotic theory for componentwise maxima of independent random samples. An extreme-value copula is determined by its Pickands dependence function, which is a function on the unit simplex subject to certain shape constraints that arise from an integral transform of an underlying measure called spectral measure. Multivariate extensions are provided of certain rank-based nonparametric estimators of the Pickands dependence function. The shape constraint that the estimator should itself be a Pickands dependence function is enforced by replacing an initial estimator by its best least-squares approximation in the set of Pickands dependence functions having a discrete spectral measure supported on a sufficiently fine grid. Weak convergence of the standardized estimators is demonstrated and the finite-sample performance of the estimators is investigated by means of a simulation experiment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: SiZer (SIgnificant ZERo crossing of the derivatives) is a scale-space visualization tool for statistical inferences. In this paper we introduce a graphical device, which is based on SiZer, for the test of the equality of the mean of two time series. The estimation of the quantile in a confidence interval is theoretically justified by advanced distribution theory. The extension of the proposed method to the comparison of more than two time series is also done using residual analysis. A broad numerical study is conducted to demonstrate the sample performance of the proposed tool. In addition, asymptotic properties of SiZer for the comparison of two time series are investigated. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Consider the nonparametric location-scale regression model , where the error is independent of the covariate , and and are smooth but unknown functions. The pair is allowed to be subject to selection bias. We construct tests for the hypothesis that belongs to some parametric family of regression functions. The proposed tests compare the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) based on the residuals obtained under the assumed parametric model, with the NPMLE based on the residuals obtained without using the parametric model assumption. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistics is obtained. A bootstrap procedure is proposed to approximate the critical values of the tests. Finally, the finite sample performance of the proposed tests is studied in a simulation study, and the developed tests are applied on environmental data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We develop two methods to construct confidence bands for the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve without estimating the densities of the underlying distributions. The first method is based on the smoothed bootstrap while the second method uses the Bonferroni inequality. As an illustration, we provide confidence bands for the ROC curve using data on Duchanne Muscular Dystrophy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The asymptotic distribution of the usual goodness-of-fit process for ARMA models based on the residual autocorrelations is obtained. This distribution depends on unknown parameters. This fact motivates the introduction of a modified goodness-of-fit process based on a transformation of the residual autocorrelations. This new process is shown to converge weakly to the Brownian bridge. Thus, functionals based on the modified process are adequate for goodness-of-fit purposes. The behavior of these functionals is analyzed and compared to that of the standard Ljung–Box and cumulative periodogram statistics. The new method is found to perform better in some simulation experiments at the cost of some increased numerical complexity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: For a suitably chosen metric for the topology of weak convergence in the space of prior distributions on the shift parameter of a compact Gaussian shift experiment, the posterior distribution (induced by a full support prior) of the shift parameter given independent and identically distributed observations from the experiment is uniformly (in the shift parameter) consistent in . The corresponding posterior mean is uniformly consistent in the norm on the parameter space. -distance between the posterior mean (induced by a full support hyperprior) of the prior (i.e., mixing) distribution given independent and identically distributed observations from the mixture experiment and the empirical distribution of the parameter sequence in the product experiment [the mixing distribution] goes to zero in of the product [mixture] experiment, uniformly in parameter sequences [mixing distributions]. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: There is a close analogy between empirical distributions of i.i.d. random variables and normalized spectral distributions of wide-sense stationary processes. Herein we make use of this analogy to develop nonparametric comparisons of two spectral distributions and nonparametric tests of stationarity versus change-point alternatives via spectral analysis of a time series. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We study the asymptotic behaviour of stochastic processes that are generated by sums of partial sums of i.i.d. random variables and their renewals. We conclude that these processes cannot converge weakly to any nondegenerate random element of the space . On the other hand, we show that their properly normalized integrals as Vervaat-type stochastic processes converge weakly to a squared Wiener process. Moreover, we also deal with the asymptotic behaviour of the deviations of these processes, the so-called Vervaat-error-type processes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Let be i.i.d. symmetric random variables with and denote by their partial sums. We derive the distribution of the difference in the position of the last and first maximum of the random walk up to time t. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we study the weak convergence of the sequential empirical process based on the residuals from autoregressive models with measurement errors. It is shown that the sequential empirical process converges weakly to the sum of a Gaussian process which is the limit of a sequential empirical process of certain p-dependent random variables and an additional term depending on the parameter estimators of the model. As an application, we discuss the change point problem in the distribution of the error process in the autoregressive model. We present the numerical result of a simulation study for an asymptotically distribution-free test. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Middle censoring refers to data that becomes unobservable if it falls within a random interval. The lifetime distribution of such data is defined via the self-consistency equation. We propose an approximation to this distribution function for which an estimator and its asymptotic properties are very easy to establish. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In the competing risks problem an important role is played by the cumulative incidence function (CIF), whose value at time t is the probability of failure by time t for a particular type of failure in the presence of other risks. Its estimation and asymptotic distribution theory have been studied by many. In some cases there are reasons to believe that the CIFs due to two types of failure are order restricted. Several procedures have appeared in the literature for testing for such orders. In this paper we initiate the study of estimation of two CIFs subject to a type of stochastic ordering, both when there are just two causes of failure and when there are more than two causes of failure, treating those other than the two of interest as a censoring mechanism. We do not assume independence of the two types of failure of interest; however, these are assumed to be independent of the other causes in the censored case. Weak convergence results for the estimators have been derived. It is shown that when the order restriction is strict, the asymptotic distributions are the same as those for the empirical estimators without the order restriction. Thus we get the restricted estimators “free of charge”, at least in the asymptotic sense. When the two CIFs are equal, the asymptotic MSE is reduced by using the order restriction. For finite sample sizes simulations seem to indicate that the restricted estimators have uniformly smaller MSEs than the unrestricted ones in all cases. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, the exact explicit expression for the distribution function of the trivariate extreme vector is derived. The advantage of this expression is its facility when one decides to pass to the limit as the sample size increases. The limit forms as well as the conditions by which this limit splits into the product of the limit marginals are obtained. Moreover, some useful recurrence relations are derived. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper we consider some non-parametric goodness-of-fit statistics for testing the partial Koziol–Green regression model. In this model, the response at a given covariate value is subject to random right censoring by two independent censoring times. One of these censoring times is informative in the sense that its survival function is some power of the survival function of the response. The goodness-of-fit statistics are based on an underlying empirical process for which large sample theory is obtained. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

For a (possibly multivariate) distribution F, a characterization of (diagonal) symmetry is made with respect to a kernel of degree 2; this is incorporated in the formulation of appropriate U-processes that provide the access to a suitable test statistic for testing the hypothesis of diagonal symmetry when the location is treated as unknown. Asymptotic properties of the test are studied. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]