Search

This paper investigates the long-run relationship between foreign aid and economic growth using a panel data set comprising of five South Asian economies. Using the recently developed panel unit root tests, mean group and pooled mean group estimation techniques on cross-country panel data, the paper finds support of the theoretical hypothesis of a positive relationship between aid and GDP growth. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper we consider some of the economic implications of climate change scenarios as described in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). By comparing potential water demand with estimates of (sustainable) water availability in different regions, we identify regions that are likely to be constrained in their future economic growth potential by the scarcity of water resources. We assess the macroeconomic impact of water scarcity under alternative allocation rules finding that, by assigning more water to sectors in which it has a higher value, shifting production to less water intensive sectors, and importing more water intensive goods, constrained regions can effectively neutralize these water related climate risks and adapt to a changing water environment. However, this adaptation effort is likely to imply some radical changes in water management policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examined an empirical investigation of whether financial development can boost economic growth in Tunisia. We used an Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to assess the finance-growth relation taking private credit, value traded and issuing bank's securities on the financial market as financial development indicators. The empirical results showed that the domestic credit to private sector has a positive effect on the economic growth suggesting that the financial development is a driver of a long term economic growth, but subject to a financial fragility at the short run. Moreover, this study confirmed the view of bidirectional relationship between credit and economic growth. However, we found that neither the stock market development nor the intervention of banks in the stock market had robust and positive effects on the economic growth. Thus, Tunisia is recommended to accelerate in priority the financial reforms of the Tunisian stock market in order to contribute to mobilize savings and promote long run economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper proposes a novel financing scheme, reserve financing, for government infrastructure investment in China. A two-sector open economy model explores the consequences and policy implications of a surge in infrastructure investment financed by international reserves. The results show that reserve financing, coupled with a managed float exchange rate system, can maintain the country's fast growth rate while mitigating fiscal pressure on local governments. Productive infrastructure capital stimulates domestic demand, reducing the country's dependence on exports. To promote growth and maintain price stability, three factors are critical: return on infrastructure, swift fiscal adjustment, and rapid infrastructure financing. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the long-run relationship between top income shares and economic growth for a panel of nine high-income countries over the period from 1961 to 1996. We use panel cointegration and causality techniques that are robust to omitted variables, slope heterogeneity, and endogenous variables. Our main findings are that an increase in the top decile of income share reduces growth, and that long-run causality also runs in the opposite direction—from economic growth to top income shares. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper we investigate the role of financial development, or more widespread access to finance, in generating economic growth in four Latin American countries between 1980 and 2007. The results, based on panel time-series data and analysis, confirm the Schumpeterian prediction which suggests that finance authorises the entrepreneur to invest in productive activities, and therefore to promote economic growth. Furthermore, given the characteristics of the sample of countries chosen, we highlight not only the importance of a more open, competitive and therefore active financial sector in channelling financial resources to entrepreneurs, but also the relevance of macroeconomic stability (in terms of low inflation rates), and all the institutional framework that it encompasses (central bank independence and fiscal responsibility laws), structural reforms which were implemented in the 1990s, as necessary pre-conditions for financial development, and consequently for sustained growth and prosperity in the region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper develops and applies a simple “conditional growth” framework to make long-term GDP projections for the world economy, taking as a starting point the recent empirical evidence about the drivers of existing cross-country income disparities. Human capital is projected by cohorts, and allowance is implicitly made for the impact of ageing and potential labour market and pension reforms on employment growth. Leaving aside deeper sources of uncertainty such as model and parameter uncertainty, projections are found to be sensitive to future economic policies in the areas of education, pensions, labour markets and climate change mitigation, and even more so to total factor productivity and population trends. A baseline scenario projects fairly stable world GDP growth of about 3.5% annually on average (in PPP terms) over 2005–2050. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper extends the dynamic macroeconomic framework developed by Agénor et al. [Agénor, P. -R., Bayraktar, N., & Aynaoui, K. E. (2006, July). Roads out of Poverty? Assessing the Links between Aid, Public Capital, Growth, and Poverty Reduction. World Bank, Revised.]. As in the original model, linkages between foreign aid, public investment (education, infrastructure, and health) and growth are explicitly captured, but this time in a fixed nominal exchange rate regime. Although the nominal exchange rate is fixed, the relative price of domestic goods is endogenous, thereby allowing for potential Dutch disease effects associated with increases in aid. The impact of policy shocks on poverty is assessed by using partial growth elasticities. A policy experiment of increasing foreign aid illustrates the dynamic trade-offs between growth and poverty reduction in Niger. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Bangladesh pursued a policy of import-substituting industrialisation until 1990 when trade was liberalised and exports promoted. This paper examines the impact of trade liberalisation on the export–income relationship using cointegration methods. Results show that trade liberalisation increased export growth but had no effect on the structure of the long-run export–income relationship. Impulse responses support the export-led growth hypothesis and Bangladesh should complete its trade liberalisation agenda to promote economic growth. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper I use a large multi-country data set to analyze the determinants of abrupt and large “current account reversals.” FS [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper we study the role of the stock market in the transmission mechanism in the euro area and evaluate whether price stability and financial stability are mutually consistent and complementary objectives. Four major conclusions can be drawn from our work. First, stock prices and, more generally, relative asset prices seem to play an important role in the transmission mechanism in the euro area. Second, we do not find any significant, direct impact of stock prices on inflation. These two findings taken together support the view that stock market prices may be important for monetary policy, independently of their direct impact on inflation. Third, permanent productivity shocks are the driving force of the stock market in the long-term and contribute significantly to its cyclical behaviour. Nevertheless, the bulk of cyclical dynamics in the stock market is explained by transitory shocks. Fourth, a monetary policy focused on maintaining price stability in the long-term can contribute also to stock market stability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Given the growing concern, particularly in the EMU area that excessively low inflation threshold may hurt economic growth, the objective of this study is to examine whether a developing countries perspective is different. The empirical analysis is done using the annual data from India for the period of 1971–1998. A specific question that is addressed in this paper is what is the threshold inflation rate for India. The findings clearly suggest that the increase in inflation from any level has negative effect on economic growth and substantial gains can be obtained by focusing the monetary policy towards maintaining price stability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]