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Objective: Progranulin-related frontotemporal dementia (FTD- GRN ) is a fast progressive disease. Modelling the cascade of multimodal biomarker changes aids in understanding the aetiology of this disease and enables monitoring of individual mutation carriers. In this cross-sectional study, we estimated the temporal cascade of biomarker changes for FTD- GRN , in a data-driven way., Methods: We included 56 presymptomatic and 35 symptomatic GRN mutation carriers, and 35 healthy non-carriers. Selected biomarkers were neurofilament light chain (NfL), grey matter volume, white matter microstructure and cognitive domains. We used discriminative event-based modelling to infer the cascade of biomarker changes in FTD- GRN and estimated individual disease severity through cross-validation. We derived the biomarker cascades in non-fluent variant primary progressive aphasia (nfvPPA) and behavioural variant FTD (bvFTD) to understand the differences between these phenotypes., Results: Language functioning and NfL were the earliest abnormal biomarkers in FTD- GRN . White matter tracts were affected before grey matter volume, and the left hemisphere degenerated before the right. Based on individual disease severities, presymptomatic carriers could be delineated from symptomatic carriers with a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 96.1%. The estimated disease severity strongly correlated with functional severity in nfvPPA, but not in bvFTD. In addition, the biomarker cascade in bvFTD showed more uncertainty than nfvPPA., Conclusion: Degeneration of axons and language deficits are indicated to be the earliest biomarkers in FTD- GRN , with bvFTD being more heterogeneous in disease progression than nfvPPA. Our data-driven model could help identify presymptomatic GRN mutation carriers at risk of conversion to the clinical stage., Competing Interests: Competing interests: RS-V received personal fees for participating in advisory meetings from Wave pharmaceuticals and Ionis., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Multimodal MRI-based classification may aid early frontotemporal dementia (FTD) diagnosis. Recently, presymptomatic FTD mutation carriers, who have a high risk of developing FTD, were separated beyond chance level from controls using MRI-based classification. However, it is currently unknown how these scores from classification models progress as mutation carriers approach symptom onset. In this longitudinal study, we investigated multimodal MRI-based classification scores between presymptomatic FTD mutation carriers and controls. Furthermore, we contrasted carriers that converted during follow-up ('converters') and non-converting carriers ('non-converters')., Methods: We acquired anatomical MRI, diffusion tensor imaging and resting-state functional MRI in 55 presymptomatic FTD mutation carriers and 48 healthy controls at baseline, and at 2, 4, and 6 years of follow-up as available. At each time point, FTD classification scores were calculated using a behavioural variant FTD classification model. Classification scores were tested in a mixed-effects model for mean differences and differences over time., Results: Presymptomatic mutation carriers did not have higher classification score increase over time than controls (p=0.15), although carriers had higher FTD classification scores than controls on average (p=0.032). However, converters (n=6) showed a stronger classification score increase over time than non-converters (p<0.001)., Conclusions: Our findings imply that presymptomatic FTD mutation carriers may remain similar to controls in terms of MRI-based classification scores until they are close to symptom onset. This proof-of-concept study shows the promise of longitudinal MRI data acquisition in combination with machine learning to contribute to early FTD diagnosis., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)