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An outbreak species exhibits extreme, rapid population fluctuations that can be qualified as discrete events within a continuous dynamic. When outbreaks occur they may appear novel and disconcerting because the limiting factors of their dynamics are not readily identifiable. We present the first population hybrid dynamic model that combines continuous and discrete processes, designed to simulate marine species outbreaks. The deterministic framework was tested using the case of an unexploited benthic invertebrate species: the small, serpulid polychaete Ditrupa arietina. This species is distributed throughout the northeast Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea; it has a life cycle characterised by a pelagic dispersive larval stage, while juveniles and adults are sedentary. Sporadic reports of extremely high, variable densities (from 10,000 ind.m−2) have attracted attention from marine ecologists for a century. However, except for one decade-long field study from the Bay of Banyuls (France, Gulf of Lions, Mediterranean Sea), observations are sparse. Minimal formulations quantified the processes governing the population dynamics. Local population continuous dynamics were simulated from a size-structured model with a null immigration–emigration flux balance. The mathematical properties, based on the derived hybrid model, demonstrated the possibilities of reaching an equilibrium for the population using a single number of recruits per reproducer. Two extrapolations were made: (1) local population dynamics were simulated over 180 years using North Atlantic Oscillation indices to force recruitment variability and (2) steady-state population densities over the Gulf of Lions were calculated from a connectivity matrix in a metapopulation. The dynamics reach a macroscopic stability in both extrapolations, despite the absence of density regulating mechanisms. This ensures the persistence of D. arietina, even when strong, irregular oscillations characteristic of an outbreak species are observed. The hybrid model suggests that a macroscopic equilibrium for a population with variable recruitment conditions can only be characterised for time periods which contain several outbreak occurrences distributed over a regional scale.

In their 2023 book, “The Blue Compendium: From Knowledge to Action for a Sustainable Ocean Economy”, Lubchenko and Haugan invoked alternate stable (AS) states marginally as an undesired consequence of sources of disturbance on populations, communities and ecosystems. They did not provide detailed arguments, but considered the existence of AS states as a given. Conversely, May, in his 1977 Nature article, pointed out that, when applied to systems that are complex, “the [AS states] theory remains largely metaphorical”. This is the starting point of this critical review, which aims to re-examine the general theory behind AS states in ecological systems and its applications to marine ecology and conservation. The focus is first on theory, taking as examples communities that sustain competition and studying the relative importance of the fluxes of individuals between simple low-dimension, interconnected systems. We find that a minimal formulation of fluxes is sufficient to obtain a set of non-null multiple stable (MS) states and to trigger shifts between AS states when fluxes become large enough. This provides new insights into the theory of rescue and mass effects by distinguishing them through a threshold at which the system dynamics shift from one stable equilibrium to another. Then, we consider how the theoretical framework of AS states has been applied in marine environments. It appears that many applications have confounded shifts between AS states and changes in the structure of systems, particularly when the complexity of the systems increases. The main difficulty for any application remains that the concepts of MS and AS states can only be established and validated for low-dimension systems and simplified experiments. This is because the mathematical properties of models that describe large-dimension, complex systems deviate from the observed characteristics of their real-world counterparts. There are many intriguing scientific challenges around the plausible shifts between AS states, but a deeper understanding and characterization of their occurrence in nature would require a significant investment in modeling to formulate predictive ecosystem models.

Whale migrations are poorly understood. Two competing hypotheses dominate the literature: 1. moving between feeding and breeding grounds increases population fitness, 2. migration is driven by dynamic environmental gradients, without consideration of fitness. Other hypotheses invoke communication and learned behaviors. In this article, their migration was investigated with a minimal individual-based model at the scale of the Global Ocean. Our aim is to test if global migration patterns can emerge from only the local, individual perception of environmental change. The humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) meta-population is used as a case study. This species reproduces in 14 zones spread across tropical latitudes. From these breeding areas, humpback whales are observed to move to higher latitudes seasonally, where they feed, storing energy in their blubber, before returning to lower latitudes. For the model, we developed a simplified ethogram that conditions the individual activity. Then trajectories of 420 whales (30 per DPS) were simulated in two oceanic configurations. The first is a homogeneous ocean basin without landmasses and a constant depth of −1000 m. The second configuration used the actual Earth topography and coastlines. Results show that a global migration pattern can emerge from the movements of a set of individuals which perceive their environment only locally and without a pre-determined destination. This emerging property is the conjunction of individual behaviors and the bathymetric configuration of the Earth’s oceanic basins. Topographic constraints also maintain a limited connectivity between the 14 DPSs. An important consequence of invoking a local perception of environmental change is that the predicted routes are loxodromic and not orthodromic. In an ocean without landmasses, ecophysiological processes tended to over-estimate individual weights. With the actual ocean configuration, the excess weight gain was mitigated and also produced increased heterogeneity among the individuals. Developing a model of individual whale dynamics has also highlighted where the understanding of whales’ individual behaviors and population dynamic processes is incomplete. Our new simulation framework is a step toward being able to anticipate migration events and trajectories to minimize negative interactions and could facilitate improved data collection on these movements.

In this review, the use of environmental DNA (eDNA) within Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is evaluated. EIA documents provide information required by regulators to evaluate the potential impact of a development project. Currently eDNA is being incorporated into biodiversity assessments as a complementary method for detecting rare, endangered or invasive species. However, questions have been raised regarding the maturity of the field and the suitability of eDNA information as evidence for EIA. Several key issues are identified for eDNA information within a generic EIA framework for marine environments. First, it is challenging to define the sampling unit and optimal sampling strategy for eDNA with respect to the project area and potential impact receptor. Second, eDNA assay validation protocols are preliminary at this time. Third, there are statistical issues around the probability of obtaining both false positives (identification of taxa that are not present) and false negatives (non-detection of taxa that are present) in results. At a minimum, an EIA must quantify the uncertainty in presence/absence estimates by combining series of Bernoulli trials with ad hoc occupancy models. Finally, the fate and transport of DNA fragments is largely unknown in environmental systems. Shedding dynamics, biogeochemical and physical processes that influence DNA fragments must be better understood to be able to link an eDNA signal with the receptor’s state. The biggest challenge is that eDNA is a proxy for the receptor and not a direct measure of presence. Nonetheless, as more actors enter the field, technological solutions are likely to emerge for these issues. Environmental DNA already shows great promise for baseline descriptions of the presence of species surrounding a project and can aid in the identification of potential receptors for EIA monitoring using other methods.

Early detection of environmental disturbances affecting shellfish stock condition is highly desirable for aquaculture activities. In this article, a new biophysical model-based early warning system (EWS) is described, that assesses bivalve stock condition by diagnosing signs of persistent physiological dysfunctioning. The biophysical model represents valve gape dynamics, controlled by active contractions of the adductor muscle countering the passive action of the hinge ligament; the dynamics combine continuous convergence to a steady-state interspersed with discrete closing events. A null simulation was introduced to describe undisturbed conditions. The diagnostic compares valve gape measurements and simulations. Indicators are inferred from the model parameters, and disturbances are assessed when their estimates deviate from their null distribution. Instead of focusing only on discrete events, our EWS exploits the complete observed dynamics within successive time intervals defined by the variation scales. When applied to a valvometry data series, collected in controlled conditions from scallops (Pecten maximus), the EWS indicated that one among four individuals exhibited signs its physiological condition was degrading. This was detected neither during experiments nor during the initial data analysis, suggesting the utility of an approach that quantifies physiological mechanisms underlying functional responses. Practical implementations of biological-EWS at farming sites are then discussed.