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A proposal was presented to assess the incapacity risk of commercial vehicles performing transport tasks under market conditions. The risk assessment model in the form of cost was used, which is based on the determination of operational efficiency, referring the probable costs of ensuring the reliability of the transport system to the estimated threshold income. It includes costs: incidental repairs, unplanned downtime and resulting from the presumed loss of client's trust. Operational research were carried out on a group of several dozen vehicles, registering their operational states during several years of use. The results of the research confirmed the suitability of the incapacity risk model for predicting potential expenses for guarantee the vehicle's continuity of running in the company and to verify the selection of the vehicle brand and the period of use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]