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The paper summarizes the results of a major study by the World Bank which evaluates the effects of its adjustment lending in the 1980s in relation to policies for increased growth. Reforms undertaken by Bank adjustment programmes usually contain a macro component designed to bring aggregate demand into balance with aggregate supply, and a micro component designed to increase aggregate supply itself. Countries are grouped into three categories: 'early intensive adjustment lending' (EIAL), 'other adjustment lending' (OAL) and 'non-adjustment lending' (NAL), and the major findings are that EIAL countries, taken as a group, had better growth performance, markedly better export performance, and worse investment performance (public and private) than countries in the other two groups, even when the influence of external factors such as terms of trade and weather is netted out. The negative effect on investment is worrying in the light of its implications for long-term growth, and is interpreted in terms of the lack of credibility attaching to a number of government reform programmes. Available data on social indicators -- though incomplete -- suggest that Bank adjustment lending has not increased absolute poverty, but the shares of central government expenditures for health and education declined on average in the EIAL countries for which data exist. To improve the record on aggregate growth, the report concludes that adjustment policies need to focus more on removing major distortions that reduce efficiency and on creating conditions favourable to renewed investment, particularly by the private sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the early 1960s James Meade visited Mauritius as adviser to a Commission evaluating population structure and growth. Out of that visit emerged two papers which were Malthusian in their prognosis of economic prospects for Mauritius. This paper reconsiders the Meade evaluation and compares his predictions with actual outcomes. As it turns out, his pessimism was not justified. The factors which led him to reach his set of conclusions, and the factors which explain actual economic performance, are both assessed in detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the meaning of 'ideology' and 'development' and the relationship betwen them. It examines external constraints on development, including dependence on the industrialized West and the crippling burden of debt servicing, and the issue of privatization, which is seen as cutting across the ideological boundaries separating capitalist and socialist states. It also reviews internal constraints on development, such as the shortage of essential skills and the adoption of policies favouring the urban areas, and argues that they are largely independent of ideological considerations. It maintains that the apparent strength of the movement towards de-ideologization in Africa may not prove permanent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay discusses the politics of programming development assistance. The first section presents a macro-view of the development 'system' as a background to the first case study, the country programming exercise in Colombia. The second very different case is of the attempt to reorganize the debt of Guinea-Bissau through a structural adjustment programme. The case studies reveal the two programming experiences to be political rather than simply technical exercises. They show the effort to find a disinterested coordinator to be futile. The conclusion argues that coordination should be the major responsibility of host country nationals who draw their primary inspiration from the so-called beneficiaries of development assistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a speech by Ann Clwyd, Member of Parliament for Cynon Valley and Shadow Minister for Overseas Development, delivered at the Development Studies Association Conference at the University of Wales in Swansea on September 13, 1991. Contributions of the Labour Party to development and poverty alleviation; Decision of the government to abandon the Labour Party's commitment to focus aid on the poorest; Budget of the government for overseas aid.

Introduces topics and articles discussed in March 1992 issue of the "Journal of International Development," including an article on the macro-economic effectiveness of aid.

This paper reviews the academic literature on the macroeconomic impact of development aid, with a special emphasis on the question as to whether, as claimed by much of the empirical literature, aid does not increase growth. The inadequate theoretical foundation of models of aid's impact on savings, in particular their failure to consider economy-wide effects, make them a poor basis for conclusions about aid's impact. The combination of weak theory with poor econometric methodology makes it difficult to conclude anything about the relationship between aid and savings. The literature on the relationship between aid and growth suffers from similar problems. Country-level studies of aid's impact on a range of macroeconomic variables are required which may build on the relatively small existing literature in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper returns to the question of what is the correct structural form for the relationship between aid, other financial flows, and economic growth rates, using a cross-section approach and -- for the first time -- data for the entire 1980s as well as the 1960s and 1970s. For the 1980s the aggregate partial regression coefficient of aid on growth emerges, for the first time, as positive and Gust) significant, although this result does not survive the partitioning of the sample into sub-groups. It remains obvious that the effect of aid on growth is country-specific, and in the later part of the paper we test a new approach under which aid effectiveness passes through a cycle, first increasing and then diminishing as a country's stage of economic development alters. If this approach is accepted (and the initial results, with an informal test, are promising) the overall cross-section relationship between aid and growth, abstracting from other influences, will be neutral in most periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the consequences of the greening of aid -- specifically the conditions which can be imposed on aid flows to render them more environmentally acceptable -- for food and livelihood security policies. Differing time preferences and goals of food security and environmental policies can lead to conflict, ' Environment-first' approaches have characterized many environmental aid policies, whereas food security goals have tended to stress economic not environmental sustainability. In order to reduce conflict between the pursuit of these two sets of obectives, a more ' people-first' approach is required. Examples of green conditionality are discussed and policy options to minimize some of its adverse consequences considered. The paper draws on examples from Sahelian Africa, but raises tentative arguments and possible scenarios, rather than tested results, seeking to provoke further discussion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years concern over environmental issues have moved high up the political agenda. This has accelerated particularly in the run up to the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development. Two sets of concerns have dominated attention: the problem of degrading environments within developing countries and global issues such as climate change and ozone depletion. The prime focus of attention in the developing countries has traditionally been on the former. Concerns over the latter originated primarily in the industrialised world but the issue is now recognised to have important implications also for the developing countries. New aid mechanisms are being formed to assist these countries address global environmental issues. This paper discusses economic approaches to assessing environmental impacts and attempts to examine the trade-offs which developing countries face in addressing national as compared international environmental problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aid donors devote substantial sums to economic and social research. This is justified by its contribution to development. Aid agencies should act as agents for the intended beneficiaries of research, principally LDC policy-makers. The research agenda should reflect the perspectives of both researchers and beneficiaries. Due to market failure, donors need to support research capacity. They can do this through their funding policy towards individual research projects, support for broader programmes of research, or by lump-sum financing of research institutions. The location of research affects its contribution to development: there may be a trade-off between quality of research and other objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduces a selection of papers presented at the Annual Conference of the Development Studies Association held in Swansea in September 1991, and are featured in the 1992 issue of the "Journal of International Development."

Botswana has experienced rapid economic growth over the past two decades, which has attracted much praise. While many of its citizens remained reliant on food aid programmes during the recent drought of 1982-88, both the coverage and management of the relief programme were seen as outstanding by development economists and aid planners alike. This paper argues that such optimism is based more on broad aggregate levels of aid disbursement rather than data obtained from actual field studies. Using micro-level data on food aid flows, the paper argues that such praise for the aid programme is not justified, as there existed serious deficiencies in food provision to many of the most vulnerable groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on several articles about the economic development in Mauritius. "Mauritius: Democracy and Development in the Indian Ocean," by Larry W. Bowman; "Mauritius: Economic Memorandum: Recent Developments and Prospects,": by World Bank; "Mauritius: Managing Success," by World Bank

Balance of payments problems in many developing countries have created significant challenges to the IMF and World Bank; their response has been inadequate. While these institutions may not have outlived their usefulness, it is worth exploring modifications to the existing institutional structure designed to have a beneficial impact on economic development. If the traditional division of labour between the IMF and the World Bank has broken down in the context of their dealings with developing countries wherein lie the new comparative advantages? This paper proposes and analyses a reorganization of functions between the two institutions that it is claimed would assist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does the formation of a customs union reduce and eventually eliminate tariffs among member countries to provide mechanisms or regional institutions for social, economic and political development? The literature examined suggests that, although many problems of trade liberalization continue to occur, greater benefits could be obtained by reducing tariffs on a non-discriminatory basis, or by removing protection from domestic enterprises altogether, and by importing domestic requirements of the products of displaced industries from outside at world market prices. The literature also provides a valid case for protecting certain activities in ECOWAS -- particularly trade and industrial enterprises -- either for the purpose of increasing income or the rate of economic growth, or in order to achieve certain non-economic objectives. The implications of economic integration in these terms can best be examined within a broader theoretical framework of developmental theory of trade liberalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines alternative structural adjustment programmes (SAP) with the aim of assessing which will give Africa the best chance of recovering from economic crisis and attain goal of economic development for the 1990s. Information on the basic policy directions and policy implements formulated by the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA); Assertions made by World Bank to prove the efficacy of its SAP; Problems associated with the ECA proposal of structural transformation and the World Bank agenda.

For Fiji, the decade after political independence in 1970 provided economic and political room for manoeuvre based upon levelling the uneven playing field of the colonial inheritance. But by the end of the 1970s, issues of post-colonial macroeconomic imbalances and structural poverty were emerging. The economic debates of the 1980s opened up a range of policy choices. Only after the coups of 1987 did the IMF/World Bank Structural Adjustment approach gain dominance. The coups were in the interest of a chiefly group who are able to benefit from partial exposure to market forces--providing this exposure excludes land--a position accepted in IMF/World Bank recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper critically examines the UNDP's Human Development Index (HDI). We conclude that its treatment of income is inappropriate; the lack of year-to-year comparability is undesirable; it is robust with respect to measurement error; and that its contribution to the assessment of development levels differs markedly among country groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic analysis that is gender-aware, in the sense of recognizing that all economic activity works through and within gendered relationships, has the potential to generate both a better understanding of the development process and a better understanding of the policies required to diminish gender inequality. This paper investigates the extent to which neoclassical and structuralist approaches to the economics of development are gender-aware, and finds both paradigms seriously deficient. Two recent examples of gender-aware development economics are discussed, and suggestions are made about how to improve gender-awareness in development economics. The potential contribution of a critical institutionalist approach is highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of the external debts of less developed countries (LDCs) on their exports to the United States. Specifically, the effect that manifests as pressure on the 48 most indebted LDCs to export to the US is investigated. Cross-sectional regression analysis and data for 1984 are used in the estimation. The estimates show that the burden of external debts put significant pressure on LDCs to export. The estimates also suggest that the LDCs are conscious of their creditworthiness in the international financial market. Furthermore, the results highlight the inadequacy of the current General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) negotiations that focus on trade in goods and services to the exclusion of the LDCs' debt problem. GATT negotiations should give LDCs' market access to industrialized countries greater weight on its agenda as an attempt at tackling the LDCs' debt problem. This is necessary for the long-term growth of these LDCs, a concern to which enough attention has not been paid. In addition. Western donor countries and their banks should provide more debt relief to these debtor countries. This will enable LDCs to retain a substantial part of their export earnings. Uncertainty is reduced, thus providing the much-needed impetus for entrepreneurs in these poor economies to commit themselves to long-term investments. This will guarantee long-term economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the significant features of Chinese economic development in the 1980s was that grain imports increased sharply, while the whole economy experienced rapid growth and reform. This paper attempts to measure the domestic resources costs (DRC) of rice and wheat production in China (two of the most important grains in the Chinese grain sector) during the period 1981-87 and to examine the questions of whether, or to what extent, the level of comparative advantage in grain production can explain the performance of China's grain trade. Substantial comparative advantage in China's rice production and considerable comparative disadvantage in wheat production have been found by the measurement. These preliminary results suggest that the relative costs incurred by China's domestic grain sector were likely to have played some role in determining both the structure of its grain trade and its large scale of net wheat importation in the 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economists involved in offering policy advice to developing countries have often expressed frustration at the extent to which political factors within developing countries have thwarted the implementation of effective economic reform. While the focus of economic policy in the first few decades after World War II was on overcoming market failures, since the 1970s the focus has been on overcoming government failures. This paper examines how politics interacts with economic policy, in particular to consider if the new political economy can help us to achieve the political reform that seems essential if economic reform programmes are to be effective. The conclusion is that economic advice, and advisers, must understand the political environment within which policies will be implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper endeavours to sketch out the main implications of so-called 'new growth theory' for the study of economic development. New growth theory endogenizes the sources of growth by attributing growth in production to externalities created by investments in human capital and in technology; some versions also introduce policy variables. The empirical evidence on determinants of growth is reviewed. The new growth theories caution against excessive protection of intellectual property rights, but suggest that in an environment of wide and growing information asymmetries between developed and developing countries, some restrictions to free trade may be justified. In addition, autonomous increases in real wages may have a positive and permanent effect on real per capita income, echoing a conclusion of the 'under-consumptionist' literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduces a series of articles featured in the November 1993 issue of "Journal of International Development."

Global Environmental Change is central to the debate on the relationship between environmental degradation and economic development. This paper examines the agreements signed at the Earth Summit held in Rio in 1992 and highlights some implications for developing countries. The interim mechanism for resource transfer under the Conventions is the Global Environmental Facility, but it appears that transfers on a scale necessary to bring about sustainable development as envisaged by Agenda 21 cannot be made through this mechanism alone. It is argued here that other mechanisms to promote development, such as debt relief, should not be ignored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper takes issue with the convergence of opinion, exhibited in a range of development discourses, which suggests that a synergistic set of policy instruments can be used to achieve population, environment and development objectives in developing countries. Gender analysis is the vehicle for the critique of three synergistic policies--clarification of land rights, increased education for women and the empowerment of women. In all of these areas gender analysis reveals trade-offs and policy conflicts rather than any necessary positive synergy. The reasons for the attractiveness of the synergy position are seen to lie partially in the legacy of systems thinking and the atmosphere of urgency in western environmentalism as well as in the sociology of development agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduces a series of articles on the role of investments in achieving economic development in developing countries.

Many developing projects include proposals for the construction of certain kinds of facilities that would provide useful services to the general community. Facilities such as sewage treatment plants, transmission stations, public utilities, nuclear power stations and airports are, by general consensus, necessary for development and growth. However, there is little doubt that the residents living near these facilities would suffer from their negative external effects. The purpose of this paper is to discuss and highlight the problem of siting an environmentally noxious facility. The paper presents the characteristics of such a facility, examines current conflict-resolution instruments and emphasizes the importance of valuing intangibles, including option values in environment impact assessments. Finally, it offers some general considerations for establishing a compensation package for local residents, including two alternative compensation mechanisms to effect payment. Based in large part on cost-benefit analysis, a set of efficiency and equity criteria to screen compensation claims is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies the standard 2 x 2 trade model to an inter-temporal context, to demonstrate that previous (macro) optimization models of international borrowing for LDCs are special cases of a more general (and more flexible) model of optimal borrowing. It demonstrates that previous models involve only inter-temporal consumption smoothing and prohibit inter-temporal specialization in production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture's role in development has traditionally been seen to be a provider of things to the modern industrial sector. In this paper it is argued that those countries which historically have succeeded as those which have, at least for some time period, nurtured agriculture. Bates has pointed out that this was the case for English agriculture and this paper argues that it was also the case for Japan during both the Tokugawa and Meiji periods. Japanese colonization of Korea and Taiwan assured that agriculture was also protected, at least prior to World War II, in these latter two countries. Finally, this paper argues that the key role of agriculture in industrialization is in terms of providing a growing market for manufactured goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents several featured articles about economic development presented at the 1993 annual conference of the Development Studies Association.

This report evaluates research in development studies in the United Kingdom, primarily over the period 1980 to the present. It focuses on the content, quality, relevance and impact of both economic and non-economic research studies. On the basis of these considerations, it offers numerous recommendations for improving future performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considers the case of trade policy intervention aimed at export promotion in developing countries. Overview of the recent literature bearing on trade theory and policy intervention;Experience of government programs of assistance for the promotion of exports in developing countries;Alternative approach to assisting firms' export activities.

Assesses the effect of external economic policies of Japan on economic development of developing countries. Levels of international development promotion; Trade policy of Japan; Initiatives in restructuring business operations in Japan; Salient characteristics of Japanese Official Development Assistance.

Drawing on baseline data from an urban development project which provided services and legal land tenure to Palestinian refugee-squatters in five low-income areas of Amman, Jordan, this article analyses the impact of economic crisis, structural adjustment and the Gulf War on two out of five of the upgraded communities. A study was conducted in 1991, following the Gulf crisis, to analyse the sustainability of child health improvements that had been achieved during the first five years of the upgrading project and to examine the relationships between poverty and health. It was found that several health indicators had deteriorated since 1985 (which was before the economic crisis which had begun in 1988), but that households used a number of strategies to alleviate the growing income constraints on access to health care and basic goods. Despite a sophisticated health care system, there were few institutionalized mechanisms to generate policy-relevant data which might have led to action to protect the poor from the negative effects of the economic crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of AIDS programmes mimics that of many development programmes. Some of the responses made by organizations to AIDS are analysed in relation to broader issues in social and economic development. The emphasis is on the political nature of health. The pluralist and relative natures of programming for health are examined, suggesting that there can never be a common approach to health or any individual health problem such as AIDS. The central tenet of the article is that HIV is not a cause in its own right, but a strong marker for action and concern in development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares the politics of agenda setting in international health policy, for the issues of child health and adult health, along five political streams: organizational, symbolic, economic, scientific and politician politics. The approach is a modified version of Kingdon's 'garbage can model' of how public policy agendas are set. The analysis shows that the five political streams all favoured child health over adult health as an issue on the international health policy agenda, until recently. In the early 1990s, the World Bank has asserted greater influence on this agenda than previously, with a concerted effort to shift the focus from child health to adult health and to give greater attention to the preventive aspects of adult health in poor countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduces several papers about economic development presented at the 1995 Annual Conference of the Development Studies Association at Lancaster University, England.

This paper analyses policies designed to counter poverty and income inequality within a two period overlapping generations model. The baseline is provided by a laissez-faire regime where income in the second period is determined by the human capital of the agent together with the investment in education in the first period. Within the framework of a balanced budget, two policies are examined; the provision of income support alone and then when this is supplemented by additional education for the poor. The latter policy can lead to greater mean income and less poverty and income inequality compared to laissez-faire when income is responsive to educational outlay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the last fifteen years most countries in sub-Saharan Africa--already the poorest region of the developing world--have experienced further declines in living standards, and in some cases, starvation. It is argued that this represents a test case for development economics, which has been a particularly controversial branch of the discipline in recent years. Two insights from the early 'development economics' of the 1950s--rural capital market imperfections and early 'strategic trade policy' arguments for protection--are shown to have continuing relevance in explaining African underdevelopment. The argument is developed by reference to two large Asian countries--India and Indonesia--which lagged behind Africa in the 1980s, but which have now overtaken it, and whose experience, we argue, can suggest valuable ways forward for Africa in the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper surveys the recent eclipse of various state forms in the Third World claiming the label 'socialist', with particular reference to Africa. Different variants are distinguished and their trajectories since the late 1980s are explained in terms of both internal and external factors. A comparison of economic and social data on (ex-)socialist and overtly capitalist Third World states shows that there is generally no clear basis for distinguishing between them within any broad income band. Finally, the nature and extent of politico-economic change in Africa's erstwhile socialist countries is traced, and is shown to be most marked in the former 'Marxist-Leninist' states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The neo-liberal interpretation of the Thai state suggests that industrial policy was incoherent, subject to rent seeking and irrelevant to Thai development success. A more nuanced micro-historical analysis of the state's interventions demonstrates that this over-simplification misses important examples of effective selective interventions during first stage import-substitution industrialization in the 1960s, as well as in second stage ISI in the 1970s. In the 1980s there was a systematic turning of the entire industrial policy machinery to promote manufactured exports. Without these selective interventions there is reason to doubt whether Thailand would be where it is today--a next tier NIE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews Indonesia's development record and policy framework, focusing in particular on its industrial policy regime. Although not matching the Asian Tigers in its economic performance since 1970, the country has one of the most creditable records in the Third World. Indonesia has resembled its East Asian neighbours in its generally conservative macroeconomic management and, since the mid- 1980s, in its export orientation. However, it is difficult to discern any evidence to support the proposition that the government's industrial policy--in the sense of selective, micro-level interventions--has contributed to Indonesia's rapid industrialization. A case could be made for more non-discretionary intervention to enhance supply-side capabilities, especially in the areas of education and training. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzes similarities in industrialization paradigms implemented South East Asian countries. Role of government intervention in industrialization efforts; Correlation between government intervention and the size of a country's competitive assets; Association between foreign direct investments and the degree of government interventionism; Principles governing subsidy allocation in South East Asia.

This paper investigates the factors that determine educational attainment in Ghana. The following specific questions are addressed: 1) What are the relative impacts of economic growth and improvements in school quality on educational attainment? and 2) What policy variables are most effective for reducing the gender gap in educational attainment? We find that economic growth will play the most significant role in raising the school attainment in Ghana in future years. Continued economic growth should also reduce the gender gap substantially. In addition to economic growth, provision of blackboards and repairing of leaking roofs will significantly raise school attainment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The appearance of the first two syntheses of the literature on the economic failure of 'statist' policies in post-colonial Ghana, to 1983, and the subsequent economic liberalization, is an opportune moment at which to consider the state of the debate about the political economy of the country since independence. This has focused on the nature of the socially optimum combination of administrative and market methods of resource allocation in this 'test-case' economy, and about the political conditions which largely determine the extent to which it is achieved. Explicitly or implicitly, both Frimpong-Ansah's (1991) and Rimmer's (1992) books combine the twin traditions of rational choice thought that have been dominant in recent years in the literature on African economic development, market economics and 'new' institutionalist political economy. The paper considers, in turn, the economics and politics of Ghana's economic decline and partial revival. It suggests that, while there is a consensus that 'state failure' was the main cause of Ghana's decline in relation to similarly endowed countries, 1950-83, the question of how far and in what respects the state should retreat from administrative control of resource allocation remains relatively open. For example, while the inconvertibility of the currency seems to have been irredeemably disastrous, the much criticized marketing board system may yet prove worthy of reform rather than abolition. There is also a consensus that the prolongation of what, for the economy as a whole, were disastrously counterproductive policies was to a great extent the result of the subordination of the public interest in economic growth to the sectional and personal interests of governments and their members. However, the paper argues that it is necessary to revise such explanations to take account of two surprisingly neglected points: (a) that economic growth in itself is a major political asset to governments in Africa as elsewhere and (b) that economic decline (as in Ghana 1975-83) requires more explanation than economic stagnation (as in Ghana 1950-75). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contrasts the achievements of Indonesia and Thailand in reducing poverty through the 1980s. It is argued that estimates produced by the World Bank suggesting that the headcount incidence of poverty in Thailand in 1990 was higher than Indonesia were flawed because the poverty line used was not truly comparible. But there can be little doubt that the reduction in the headcount incidence of poverty was greater in Indonesia than in Thailand over the 1980s, as was the decline in the absolute numbers of poor people, even though rates of GDP growth were faster in Thailand. Three possible reasons for the superior performance of Indonesia are suggested: regional disparities in economic growth have been more pronounced in Thailand, the expansion of post-primary education has been very slow, and Indonesia was starting from a much higher incidence of poverty in 1980 than was Thailand. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]