1. A Monte Carlo-based multi-objective optimization approach to merge different precipitation estimates for land surface modeling.
- Author
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Hazra, Abheera, Maggioni, Viviana, Houser, Paul, Antil, Harbir, and Noonan, Margaret
- Subjects
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MONTE Carlo method , *SOIL moisture , *EVAPORATION (Meteorology) , *GROUNDWATER , *RAIN gauges - Abstract
Highlights • A Monte Carlo approach is effectively used to sample weights to combine precipitation products. • Modeled soil moisture can be improved by optimally combining different precipitation products. • Combining three precipitation products is more efficient than using one or two to improve soil moisture simulations. Abstract Precipitation is a fundamental forcing variable in land surface modeling, controlling several hydrological and biogeochemical processes (e.g., runoff, carbon cycling, evaporation, transpiration, groundwater recharge, and soil moisture). However, precipitation estimates from rain gauges, ground-based radars, satellite sensors, and numerical models are affected by significant uncertainties, which can be amplified when exposed to highly non-linear land model physics. This work tests the hypothesis that precipitation data from different sources can be optimally merged to minimize the hydrologic response error in surface soil moisture simulations and maximize their correlation with ground observations (multi-objective optimization problem). This hypothesis is tested by merging three precipitation products (one satellite product, a ground-based dataset, and model-base estimates) that force a land surface model trained to minimize soil moisture anomalies. A Monte Carlo-based algorithm is developed to generate weights to linearly combine these precipitation datasets. Optimal combinations of weights are identified by minimizing the errors and maximizing the correlation between the model simulated soil moisture and the satellite-based SMOS soil moisture product. The proposed methodology has been tested over Oklahoma where high-quality, high-resolution (independent) ground-based soil moisture observations are available for validation purposes. Results show that there exist optimal combinations of these precipitation datasets that provide smaller errors and larger correlation coefficients between modeled soil moisture estimates and ground-based data with respect to forcing the land surface model with single precipitation datasets. Specifically, combining three precipitation products from different sources provides the largest correlation coefficient and the lowest root mean square error at several locations across Oklahoma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
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