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Summary: Important damages occur in small headwater catchments when they are hit by severe storms with complex spatio-temporal structure, sometimes resulting in flash floods. As these catchments are mostly not covered by sensor networks, it is difficult to forecast these floods. This is particularly true for road submersions, representing major concerns for flood event managers. The use of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates and Forecasts (QPE/QPF) especially based on radar measurements could particularly be adequate to evaluate rainfall-induced risks. Although their characteristic time and space scales would make them suitable for flash flood modelling, the impact of their uncertainties remain uncertain and have to be evaluated. The Gard region (France) has been chosen as case study. This area is frequently affected by severe flash floods, and an application devoted to the road network has also been recently developed for the North part of this region. This warning system combines distributed hydro-meteorological modelling and susceptibility analysis to provide warnings of road inundations. The warning system has been tested on the specific storm of the 29–30 September 2007. During this event, around 200mm dropped on the South part of the Gard and many roads were submerged. Radar-based QPE and QPF have been used to forecast the exact location of road submersions and the results have been compared to the effective road submersions actually occurred during the event as listed by the emergency services. Used on an area it has not been calibrated, the results confirm that the road submersion warning system represents a promising tool for anticipating and quantifying the consequences of storm events at ground. It rates the submersion risk with an acceptable level of accuracy and demonstrates also the quality of high spatial and temporal resolution radar rainfall data in real time, and the possibility to use them despite their uncertainties. However because of the quality of rainfall forecasts falls drastically with time, it is not often sufficient to provide valuable information for lead times exceeding 1h. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: A method to estimate antecedent soil moisture conditions is proposed to improve the accuracy of flash flood forecasts at ungauged locations. The method combines two indexes: a ‘climatic’ temporal index calculated in each cell using an uncalibrated soil moisture accounting (SMA) scheme and a spatial ‘statistical’ index giving the “average saturation state” usually encountered before a flood. The proposed method was carried out on two different models: an event-based distributed model, and a REGRESSION model. Simulation results were analysed for 562 individual events, issued from 160 catchments located in the South of France. The presented method improved the efficiency of both models. This indicates that the both proposed indexes give relevant information for estimating antecedent soil moisture conditions at ungauged locations. Furthermore, a contingency statistical analysis based on a 2-year flood threshold showed that alerts were better forecasted by the distributed model. These encouraging results suggest that further efforts should be made for the development of the method and its operational application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]