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Non-invasive tests to assess the probability of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) – including the ANTICIPATE±NASH models based on liver stiffness measurement and platelet count±BMI, and the von Willebrand factor antigen to platelet count ratio (VITRO) – have fundamentally changed the management of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). However, their prognostic utility has not been compared head-to-head to the gold standard for prognostication in cACLD, i.e. the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). Patients with cACLD (liver stiffness measurement ≥10 kPa) who underwent advanced characterization via same-day HVPG/non-invasive test assessment from 2007-2022 were retrospectively included. Long-term follow-up data on hepatic decompensation was recorded. Four hundred and twenty patients with cACLD of varying etiologies, with a CSPH prevalence of 67.6%, were included. The cumulative incidence of hepatic decompensation at 1 and 2 years was 4.7% and 8.0%, respectively. HVPG, VITRO, and ANTICIPATE±NASH-CSPH-probability showed similar time-dependent prognostic value (AUROCs 0.683-0.811 at 1 year and 0.699-0.801 at 2 years). In competing risk analyses adjusted for MELD score and albumin, HVPG (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR] 1.099 [95% CI 1.054–1.150] per mmHg; p < 0.001), or VITRO (aSHR 1.134 [95% CI 1.062–1.211] per unit; p < 0.001), or ANTICIPATE±NASH-CSPH-probability (aSHR 1.232 [95% CI 1.094–1.387] per 10%; p < 0.001) all predicted first decompensation during follow-up. Previously proposed cut-offs (HVPG ≥10 mmHg vs. <10 mmHg, VITRO ≥2.5 vs. < 2.5, and ANTICIPATE-CSPH probability ≥60% vs. < 60%) all accurately discriminated between patients at negligible risk and those at substantial risk of hepatic decompensation. The prognostic performance of ANTICIPATE±NASH-CSPH-probability and VITRO is comparable to that of HVPG, supporting their utility for identifying patients who may benefit from medical therapies to prevent first hepatic decompensation. Non-invasive tests have revolutionized the diagnosis and management of clinically significant portal hypertension in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). However, limited data exists regarding the prognostic utility of non-invasive tests in direct comparison to the gold standard for prognostication in cACLD, i.e. the hepatic venous pressure gradient. In our study including 420 patients with cACLD, the ANTICIPATE±NASH model and VITRO yielded similar AUROCs to hepatic venous pressure gradient for hepatic decompensation within 1 to 2 years. Thus, non-invasive tests should be applied and updated in yearly intervals in clinical routine to identify patients at short-term risk, thereby identifying patients who may benefit from treatment aimed at preventing hepatic decompensation. [Display omitted] • Non-invasive tests have similar prognostic utility to the hepatic venous pressure gradient in patients with cACLD. • ANTICIPATE±NASH and VITRO identify patients at short-term risk of decompensation. • Non-invasive tests may be applied to individualize prognosis and treatment decisions in cACLD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a need for accurate biomarkers of fibrosis for population screening of alcohol-related and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (ALD, NAFLD). We compared the performance of the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test to the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), using transient elastography as the reference standard. We prospectively included participants from the general population, and people at risk of ALD or NAFLD. Screening positive participants (TE ≥8 kPa) were offered a liver biopsy. We measured concomitant ELF, FIB-4, and NFS using validated cut-offs: ≥9.8, ≥1.3, ≥-1.45, respectively. We included 3,378 participants (1,973 general population, 953 at risk of ALD, 452 at risk of NAFLD), with a median age of 57 years (IQR: 51-63). Two hundred-and-forty-two were screening positive (3.4% in the general population, 12%/14% who were at-risk of ALD/NAFLD, respectively). Most participants with TE <8 kPa also had ELF <9.8 (88%) despite a poor overall correlation between ELF and TE (Spearman´s rho = 0.207). ELF was associated with significantly fewer false positives (11%) than FIB-4 and NFS (35% and 45%), while retaining a low rate of false negatives (<8%). A screening strategy of FIB-4 followed by ELF in indeterminate cases resulted in false positives in 8%, false negatives in 4% and the correct classification in 88% of cases. We performed a liver biopsy in 155/242 (64%) patients who screened positive, of whom 54 (35%) had advanced fibrosis (≥F3). ELF diagnosed advanced fibrosis with significantly better diagnostic accuracy than FIB-4 and NFS: AUROC 0.85 (95% CI 0.79-0.92) vs. 0.73 (0.64-0.81) and 0.66 (0.57-0.76), respectively. The ELF test alone or combined with FIB-4 for liver fibrosis screening in the general population and at-risk groups reduces the number of futile referrals compared to FIB-4 and NFS, without overlooking true cases. We need referral pathways that are efficient at detecting advanced fibrosis from alcohol-related and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in the population, but without causing futile referrals or excessive use of resources. This study indicates that a sequential test strategy of FIB-4 followed by the ELF test in indeterminate cases leads to few patients referred for confirmatory liver stiffness measurement, while retaining a high rate of detected cases, and at low direct costs. This two-step referral pathway could be used by primary care for mass, targeted, or opportunistic screening for liver fibrosis in the population. Clinicaltrials.gov number NCT03308916. [Display omitted] • Validated referral pathways for fatty liver disease are needed in primary care. • FIB-4 ≥1.3 results in false positives in 35% of patients, leading to over-referrals. • Referrals of at-risk patients can be reduced to 14% by using ELF alone. • FIB-4 followed by ELF in indeterminate cases may further reduce referrals to 10%. • 27% of screening positive individuals have biopsy-verified advanced fibrosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The risk of significant liver fibrosis from prolonged methotrexate (MTX) exposure has been estimated at around 5%, prompting intensive monitoring strategies. However, the evidence is derived from retrospective studies that under-reported risk factors for liver disease. We evaluated the risk of long-term MTX therapy on liver fibrosis in a longitudinal cohort study using two non-invasive markers. Between 2014-2021, adult patients diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or psoriasis for ≥2 years were recruited prospectively from six UK sites. The MTX group included patients who received MTX for ≥6 months, whereas the unexposed group included those who never received MTX. All patients underwent full liver profiling, with transient elastography (TE) and enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) marker measurements. A total of 999 patients (mean age 60.8 ± 12 years, 62.3% females) were included. Of 976 with valid TE values, 149 (15.3%) had liver stiffness ≥7.9 kPa. Of 892 with a valid ELF, 262 (29.4%) had ELF ≥9.8. Age and BMI were independently associated with elevated liver stiffness and ELF. Neither MTX cumulative dose nor duration was associated with elevated liver stiffness. Diabetes was the most significant risk factor associated with liver stiffness ≥7.9 kPa (adjusted odds ratio = 3.19; 95% CI 1.95–5.20; p < 0.001). Regular use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs showed the strongest association with ELF ≥9.8 (odds ratio = 1.76; 95% CI 1.20–2.56; p = 0.003), suggesting the degree of joint inflammation in RA may confound ELF as a non-invasive marker of liver fibrosis. The risk of liver fibrosis attributed to MTX itself might have been previously overestimated; there is a need to consider modifying current monitoring guidelines for MTX. Current guidelines recommend intensive (2-3 monthly) monitoring strategies for patients on long-term methotrexate therapy due to the potential risk of liver fibrosis. Evaluation of the association using two validated non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis, liver stiffness and enhanced liver fibrosis score, in a large cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis or psoriasis shows that the reported risk has previously been overestimated. The clinical focus should be to improve patients' metabolic risk factors, diabetes and BMI, that are independently associated with liver stiffness. There is a need to consider modifying current treatment monitoring guidelines for methotrexate. [Display omitted] • Guidelines have recommended intensive monitoring based on the reported risk of liver fibrosis linked to methotrexate. • Using non-invasive markers, we show that the risk of liver fibrosis linked to long-term methotrexate may have been overestimated. • Our findings support the need to improve patients' metabolic risk factors, which are significantly associated with liver fibrosis. • In patients with rheumatoid arthritis, transient elastography is more reliable to screen for liver fibrosis than ELF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fatty liver disease has become the most prevalent chronic liver disease globally and is linked to cardiovascular disease, including arrhythmias. However, there have been inconsistent reports on the association between fatty liver disease and atrial fibrillation, while the role of liver stiffness in this association remains unclear. Within the Rotterdam Study, a large prospective ongoing cohort, participants attending the abdominal ultrasound program between 2009-2014 were included. Exclusion criteria were no atrial fibrillation data or >20% missing data across analysis variables. Steatosis was assessed by ultrasound, liver stiffness by transient elastography and atrial fibrillation by 12-lead electrocardiograms. Incident atrial fibrillation was based on medical records and complete until 2014. Logistic and Cox-regression were used to quantify associations between fatty liver disease and atrial fibrillation. We included 5,825 participants (aged 69.5±9.1, 42.9% male), 35.7% had steatosis, liver stiffness measurement was available in 73.3%, and 7.0% had prevalent atrial fibrillation. Steatosis was not associated with prevalent atrial fibrillation in fully adjusted models (odds ratio [OR] 0.80; 95% CI 0.62-1.03), findings were consistent for non-alcoholic or metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease. Liver stiffness was significantly associated with prevalent atrial fibrillation (OR 1.09 per kPa, 95% CI 1.03-1.16); however, this was only persistent among those without steatosis (OR 1.18 per kPa, 95% CI 1.08-1.29). Lastly, no associations were found between steatosis (hazard ratio 0.88; 95% CI 0.59-1.33; follow-up 2.1 [1.1–3.2] years) and incident atrial fibrillation. Fatty liver disease was not associated with prevalent or incident atrial fibrillation, while liver stiffness was significantly associated with atrial fibrillation, especially among those without steatosis. This association might be driven by venous congestion instead of fibrogenesis, but this awaits further validation. We recommend assessing cardiovascular health in participants with high liver stiffness, especially in the absence of overt liver disease. NTR6831. There have been inconsistent reports about the potential links between fatty liver disease and atrial fibrillation (an irregular and often very fast heart rhythm). Herein, we show that liver stiffness (which is a marker of liver fibrosis), but not fatty liver disease, was associated with a higher prevalence of atrial fibrillation. We hypothesis that atrial fibrillation, rather than fibrosis, may be the cause of increased liver stiffness in participants without overt liver disease. [Display omitted] • Fatty liver disease is not associated with prevalent or incident atrial fibrillation. • Liver stiffness is significantly associated with atrial fibrillation. • Venous congestion instead of fibrosis may explain the association between liver stiffness and atrial fibrillation. • High liver stiffness in the absence of liver disease may be due to cardiovascular disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims: Whether non-invasive tests (NITs) can accurately select patients with cirrhosis requiring non-selective beta-blockers (NSBB) for clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) and prevention of decompensation is unclear. Our aim was to test the performance of NIT-based algorithms for CSPH diagnosis using the prospective PREDESCI cohort. We investigated a new algorithm combining NITs with endoscopy to improve performance., Methods: We included patients with compensated cirrhosis and available liver elastography who were screened during the trial. The performance of models based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and platelet count was evaluated. An algorithm considering endoscopy for patients with inconclusive results (the "grey zone") was then developed and validated in an independent cohort of 195 patients in whom also spleen stiffness was available., Results: We included 170 patients from the PREDESCI cohort. An LSM≥25 kPa alone (Baveno VII criteria) or an LSM>20 kPa plus thrombocytopenia (AASLD criteria) ruled-in CSPH with positive predictive value of 88 and 89%, respectively. However, 37%-47% patients fell into the grey zone while at high-risk of decompensation or death. Performing endoscopy in inconclusive cases identified patients with varices that, when re-classified as high-risk for CSPH, significantly reduced the grey zone to 22%. In this algorithm, 86% of CSPH patients were correctly classified as high-risk. The diagnostic performance was confirmed in the external validation cohort, where combining Baveno VII criteria with spleen stiffness showed similar accuracy to the model using endoscopy., Conclusions: Algorithms based only on LSM and platelet count are suboptimal to identify NSBB treatment candidates. Performing endoscopy in patients with indeterminate findings from NITs improved diagnostic performance and risk stratification. Endoscopy may be substituted by spleen stiffness for stratifying the risk in the grey zone., Impact and Implications: The PREDESCI trial demonstrated that non-selective beta-blockers prevent decompensation in CSPH patients. Still it is unclear whether we can select treatment candidates using non-invasive tests to assess the presence of CSPH without measuring HVPG. In the prospective cohort of patients screened during the trial, we showed that algorithms based on liver stiffness and platelet count had suboptimal performance, mainly due to a high rate of indeterminate results. Performing endoscopy in the grey zone patients allowed to significantly increase the number of patients with CSPH and improved the risk stratification for decompensation or death on long-term follow-up. These findings were validated in an independent cohort. In addition, a model using spleen stiffness instead of endoscopy showed similar diagnostic performance in the external validation cohort, suggesting that adequate risk stratification to select treatment candidates can be achieved with a fully non-invasive algorithm., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare no conflict of interest with regards to the content of this manuscript., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: Fontan-type surgery is used as a palliation for congenital heart disease with univentricular physiology but may, in the long term, lead to advanced chronic liver disease. This study assessed the accuracy of conventional non-invasive models in assessing liver fibrosis and introduces a new risk score employing non-invasive tools., Methods: A prospective, cross-sectional, observational study was conducted across five European centers and encompassing all consecutive adult patients with Fontan circulation, liver biopsy and non-invasive tests (elastography, APRI, FIB-4, Fibrosis score, Doha, GUCI, and AAR). The primary outcome was the identification of severe liver fibrosis on biopsy. Multivariable logistic regression identified non-invasive predictors of severe fibrosis, leading to the development and internal validation of a new scoring model named the FonLiver risk score., Results: In total, 217 patients (mean [standard deviation] age, 27.9 [8.9] years; 50.7% males) were included. Severe liver fibrosis was present in 47.9% (95% CI 41.2%-54.5%) and correlated with a lower functional class, protein-losing enteropathy, and compromised cardiopulmonary and systemic hemodynamics. The final FonLiver risk score incorporated liver stiffness measurement using transient elastography and platelet count and demonstrated strong discrimination and calibration (area under the receiver operating curve [AUROC] of 0.81). The FonLiver risk score outperformed conventional prediction models (APRI, FIB-4, Fibrosis score, Doha, GUCI, and AAR), which all exhibited worse performance in our cohort (AUROC < 0.70 for all)., Conclusion: Severe liver fibrosis is prevalent in adults following Fontan-type palliation and can be effectively estimated using with the novel FonLiver risk score. This scoring system can be easily incorporated into the routine assessment of patients with Fontan circulation., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors have no conflicts of interest that pertain to this work., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Alcohol is the most common cause of liver-related mortality and morbidity. We therefore aimed to assess and compare the prognostic performance of elastography and blood-based markers to predict time to the first liver-related event, severe infection, and all-cause mortality in patients with a history of excess drinking. We performed a prospective cohort study in patients with early, compensated alcohol-related liver disease. At baseline, we obtained a liver biopsy, transient elastography (TE), 2-dimensional shear-wave elastography (2D-SWE), enhanced liver fibrosis test (ELF), FibroTest, fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), non-alcoholic fatty liver fibrosis score (NFS) and Forns index. We compared C-statistics and time-dependent AUC for prognostication. We used validated cut-off points to create 3 risk groups for each test: low, intermediate and high risk. We followed 462 patients for a median of 49 months (IQR 31–70). Median age was 57 years, 76% were males, 20% had advanced fibrosis. Eighty-four patients (18%) developed a liver-related event after a median of 18 months (7-34). TE had the highest prognostic accuracy, with a C-statistic of 0.876, and time-dependent AUC at 5 years of 0.889, comparable to 2D-SWE and ELF. TE, ELF and 2D-SWE outperformed FibroTest, FIB4, NFS, Forns index and biopsy-verified fibrosis stage. Compared to patients with TE <10 kPa, the hazard ratios for liver-related events for TE 10–15 kPa were 8.1 (3.2–20.4), and 27.9 (13.8–56.8) for TE >15 kPa. Periods of excessive drinking during follow-up increased the risk of progressing to liver-related events, except for patients in the low-risk groups. TE, ELF and 2D-SWE are highly accurate prognostic markers in patients with alcohol-related liver disease. Easy-to-use cut-offs can distinguish between substantially different risk profiles. Alcohol is the leading cause of death and illness due to liver disease. In this study, we assessed the ability of biomarkers to predict the risk of developing symptomatic liver disease in patients with early stages of alcohol-related liver disease. We found that several tests accurately predicted the risk of liver-related events such as ascites, esophageal varices and hepatic encephalopathy during an average follow-up of 4.1 years. Liver stiffness measurements by ultrasound elastography and the enhanced liver fibrosis test performed best. By using them, we were able to stratify patients into 3 groups with significantly different risks. [Display omitted] • 462 patients with compensated ALD experienced 84 liver-related events during a median of 4.1 years of follow-up, and 76 patients died. • Elastography and the ELF test are accurate prognostic tests and outperform biopsy-verified fibrosis stage. • 3-5% of patients with F0-1, liver stiffness by FibroScan <10 kPa, or ELF test <9.8 experienced liver-related events during follow up. • This increased to 53–64% of patients with F3-4, liver stiffness >15 kPa, or ELF >10.5. • The hazard ratio for liver-related events was 8 for patients with liver stiffness of 10-15 kPa, and 28 for >15 kPa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large prospective studies to establish the prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and steatohepatitis (NASH), are lacking. We prospectively assessed the prevalence and severity of NAFLD/NASH in a cohort of asymptomatic middle-aged Americans attending a colonoscopy class at a gastroenterology clinic. Screening for NAFLD was performed using magnetic resonance (MR)-based LiverMultiScan® proton density fat fraction (LMS-PDFF). MR exams also included corrected T1 and elastography for liver stiffness measurement (LSM). FibroScan® was also used to measure LSM. Participants with predetermined abnormal imaging parameters were offered a liver biopsy. Biopsies were read in a blinded fashion with results based on the consensus by 2 expert pathologists. The prevalence of NAFLD was determined by PDFF ≥5% or by histological diagnosis of NAFLD (if biopsy data were available). The prevalence of NASH was defined by biopsy. Of 835 participants, 664 met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The mean age was 56 ± 6.4 years, 50% were male, the mean BMI was 30.48 ± 5.46 kg/m2, and 52% were obese. The prevalence of NAFLD was 38% (95% CI 34–41%) and the prevalence of NASH was 14% (95% CI 12–17%). While no patient had cirrhosis on biopsy, significant fibrosis (F ≥2) was present in 5.9% (95% CI 4–8%) and bridging fibrosis in 1.6% (95% CI 1-3%). In a multivariable analysis, factors associated with the presence of NASH were race, obesity, and diabetes. Using state-of-the-art liver imaging modalities and reference biopsy, this study establishes an overall prevalence of NAFLD of 38% and NASH by biopsy of 14% in this cohort of asymptomatic middle-aged US adults. There are no prospective studies to determine how common is nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), the severe form of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). In a large number of asymptomatic middle-aged Americans, we used a combination of state-of-the-art liver imaging methods and liver biopsy to prospectively determine the prevalence of NAFLD and NASH. NAFLD was diagnosed in 38%, NASH in 14%, and significant liver fibrosis in 6% of asymptomatic middle-aged Americans. [Display omitted] • In a prospective large cohort of middle-aged Americans living in Texas, the prevalence of NAFLD was estimated to be 38%. • Based on liver histology data, NASH was diagnosed in 14% of the entire cohort and 37% of those with NAFLD. • NASH was more common in Hispanics and those with obesity or type 2 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent study in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) reported that the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was lower in patients treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) than entecavir (ETV), but this finding remains controversial. We aimed to identify any differences in HCC incidence, or other patient outcomes, between patients receiving TDF or ETV in the well monitored, multicenter European PAGE-B cohort. We included 1,935 Caucasians with CHB, with or without compensated cirrhosis, treated with ETV (n = 772) or TDF (n = 1,163) monotherapy. Mean follow-up was 7.1 ± 3.0 years from ETV/TDF onset. The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence was 5.4% in ETV- and 6.0% in TDF-treated patients (log-rank, p = 0.321), with no significant difference in any patient subgroup (with or without cirrhosis, naïve or experienced to oral antiviral(s) [total, with or without cirrhosis]). In multivariable Cox regression analyses, the hazard of HCC was similar between ETV- and TDF-treated patients after adjustment for several HCC risk factors. ETV- and TDF-treated patients had similar rates of on-therapy biochemical and virological remission, HBsAg loss, liver transplantation and/or death. Elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 (liver stiffness <12 kPa) was observed in 245/347 (70.6%) patients with pretreatment cirrhosis, being more frequent in TDF- than ETV- treated patients (73.8% vs. 61.5%, p = 0.038). In Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without cirrhosis, long-term ETV or TDF monotherapy is associated with similar HCC risk, rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death, but elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent with TDF. In a large cohort of Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) monotherapy, cumulative rates of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ (up to 12 years). Nor did rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death. However, elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent in TDF- than ETV-treated patients with pretreatment cirrhosis. • Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir vs. tenofovir had: • Similar rates of hepatocellular carcinoma up to 12 years • Similar rates of biochemical/virological response, HBsAg loss and mortality • Less frequent elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concomitant non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is common in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection, although its impact on liver-related outcomes remains controversial. We aimed to study the effect of hepatic steatosis on the risk of fibrosis progression and the likelihood of HBsAg seroclearance. Treatment-naïve patients with CHB, normal alanine aminotransferase and low viraemia (serum HBV DNA <2,000 IU/ml) were prospectively recruited for baseline and 3-year transient elastography assessment. Fibrosis staging was defined according to the EASL-ALEH guidelines, with fibrosis progression defined as ≥1 stage increment of fibrosis. Hepatic steatosis and severe hepatic steatosis were defined as controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) ≥248 dB/m and ≥280 dB/m, respectively. A total of 330 patients (median age 50.5 years, 41.2% male, median HBV DNA 189 IU/ml) were recruited. Twenty-two patients (6.7%) achieved HBsAg seroclearance during follow-up, and the presence of hepatic steatosis was associated with a significantly higher chance of HBsAg seroclearance (hazard ratio 3.246; 95% CI 1.278–8.243; p = 0.013). At baseline, 48.8% and 28.8% of patients had steatosis and severe steatosis, respectively, while 4.2% had F3/F4 fibrosis at baseline, increasing to 8.7% at 3 years. The rate of liver fibrosis progression in patients with persistent severe steatosis was higher than in those without steatosis (41.3% vs. 23%; p = 0.05). Persistent severe hepatic steatosis was independently associated with fibrosis progression (odds ratio 2.379; 95% CI 1.231–4.597; p = 0.01). CAP measurements have predictive value in patients with virologically quiescent CHB. The presence of hepatic steatosis was associated with a higher risk of fibrosis progression but, paradoxically, a 3-fold increase in HBsAg seroclearance rate. Co-existing fatty liver disease in patients with chronic viral hepatitis B infection leads to worsening liver fibrosis, but also increases the chance of cure from hepatitis B virus. Routine bedside assessment of liver fat content is important for risk assessment in treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B. • Hepatic steatosis was associated with a 3-fold increase in likelihood of HBsAg seroclearance in quiescent CHB infection. • Cumulative probability of HBsAg seroclearance at 3 years was 18.4% in those with steatosis and low serum HBV DNA (<200 IU/ml). • Fibrosis progression was still observed in 25.2% patients despite virological quiescence. • Persistent severe hepatic steatosis was associated with a 2-fold increased risk of fibrosis progression at 36 months. • Routine CAP measurement in patients with apparently low-risk CHB has prognostic value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM), assessed by transient elastography (Fibroscan), has been demonstrated to predict post-hepatectomy liver failure in patients who undergo hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, other complications are also likely to be related to the underlying grade of liver fibrosis. Herein, we aimed to identify predictors of postoperative complications and to build and develop a novel nomogram able to identify patients at risk of developing severe complications. Data from patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC between 2006 and 2016 at 2 referral centres were retrospectively reviewed. All surgical complications were recorded and scored using the comprehensive complication index (CCI), ranging from 0 (uneventful course) to 100 (death). A CCI ≥26.2 was used as a threshold to define severe complications. During the study period, 471 patients underwent hepatic resection for HCC. Among them, 50 patients (10.6%) had a CCI ≥26.2. Age, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and LSM values, together with serum albumin, were independent predictors of high CCI. The nomogram built on these variables was internally validated and showed good performance (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.751). A regression equation to predict the CCI was also established by multiple linear regression analysis: [LSM (kPa) × 0.254] + [age (years) × 0.118] + [MELD score (pt.) × 1.050] − [albumin (g/dl) × 2.395] − 3.639. A novel nomogram, combining LSM values, age and liver function tests provided an excellent preoperative prediction of high CCI in patients with resectable HCC. This predictive model could be used as a reference for clinicians and surgeons to help them in clinical decision-making. Liver stiffness measurement is increasingly being used to assess the degree of liver fibrosis in patients with cirrhosis and/or chronic hepatitis. Using Fibroscan, we developed a novel nomogram to predict severe complications following liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma, according to the new comprehensive complication index. This tool could be used as a reference for clinicians and surgeons to help them in clinical decision-making. • Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is emerging as the most promising non-invasive test to predict decompensation after resection. • Little is known about the predictive role of LSM on the occurrence of other complications after resection. • A novel nomogram based on LSM, liver function tests and age was built to predict severe postoperative complications. • This nomogram will serve as a reference for clinicians and surgeons to help them with pre-operative decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may develop in patients with chronic hepatitis (CHB) even after 5 years of oral therapy and cannot be easily predicted. We assessed predictors of HCC development and the need for HCC surveillance in this setting. Of 1,951 adult Caucasians with CHB included in the PAGE-B cohort, 1,427 (73%) had completed >5 years of follow-up under therapy without developing HCC by year 5. Median follow-up was 8.4 years from treatment onset. Points-based risk scores were developed to predict HCC risk after year 5. In years 5–12, HCC was diagnosed in 33/1,427 (2.3%) patients with cumulative incidences of 2.4%, 3.2% and 3.8% at 8, 10 and 12 years, respectively. Older age or age >50 years, baseline cirrhosis and liver stiffness (LSM) ≥12 kPa at year 5 were independently associated with increased HCC risk. The HCC incidence was lower in non-cirrhotics than cirrhotics at baseline with year-5 LSM <12; among cirrhotics at baseline, it was lower in those with year-5 LSM <12 than ≥12 kPa. CAGE-B score was based on age at year 5 and baseline cirrhosis in relation to LSM at year 5 and SAGE-B score was based only on age and LSM at year 5 (c-index = 0.809–0.814, 0.805–0.806 after bootstrap validation). Both scores offered 100% negative predictive values for HCC development in their low risk groups. In Caucasians with CHB, the HCC risk after the first 5 years of antiviral therapy depends on age, baseline cirrhosis status and LSM at year 5. CAGE-B and particularly SAGE-B represent simple and reliable risk scores for HCC prediction and surveillance beyond year 5 of therapy. In Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B, the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after the first 5 years of entecavir or tenofovir therapy depends on age, baseline cirrhosis status and liver stiffness at year 5, which can provide simple and reliable risk scores for hepatocellular carcinoma prediction and surveillance beyond year 5. In patients with cirrhosis at baseline, liver stiffness <12 kPa at year 5 is associated with lower HCC risk, but surveillance may be still required. • Study conducted in Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B, with or without cirrhosis, after 5 years of entecavir/tenofovir. • Age >50 years, baseline cirrhosis and liver stiffness ≥12 kPa at year 5 were independently associated with increased risk of HCC. • CAGE-B score based on age at year 5 and baseline cirrhosis in relation to LSM at year 5 reliably predicted HCC risk >5 years. • SAGE-B score based only on age and LSM at year 5 was also a reliable predictor of HCC incidence >5 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Liver stiffness improves after antiviral therapy in most patients. • Hepatocellular carcinoma can still occur after antiviral therapy in patients with cACLD. • Non-invasive tests at follow-up can stratify the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. • Portal hypertension-related decompensation is rare after treatment in patients with cACLD. It is important to know which patients with hepatitis C are likely to develop liver-related complications after achieving a sustained virological response (SVR) to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. We aimed to describe the incidence of liver-related events in a population of patients with HCV-associated compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) who achieved SVR and to identify non-invasive parameters that predict the occurrence of liver-related events. This 2-center prospective study included 572 patients with cACLD who had been treated with DAAs and had achieved SVR. Patients had liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥10 kPa at baseline and had never decompensated (Child-Pugh class A). Laboratory work-up and LSM were performed at baseline and at 1 year of follow-up. The median follow-up was 2.8 years during which 32 patients (5.6%) presented with a liver-related event. The incidence rate (IR) of portal hypertension-related decompensation was 0.34/100 patient-years. These patients all had baseline LSM >20 kPa, and LSM did not improve during follow-up in 4 out of 5 of them. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurred in 25 patients (IR 1.5/100 patient-years). Albumin levels at follow-up (hazard ratio [HR] 0.08; 95% CI 0.02–0.25) and LSM <10 kPa at follow-up (HR 0.33; 95% CI 0.11–0.96) were independently associated with the risk of HCC. Combining both predictors identified 2 groups with differing risk of HCC occurrence: those with LSM ≥20 kPa at follow-up or those with LSM between 10–20 kPa and albumin levels <4.4 g/dl were at the highest risk (IR ≥1.9/100 patient-years). Visual nomograms predicting HCC risk based on LSM and albumin at 1 year of follow-up were constructed. In patients with HCV-related cACLD who have achieved SVR with DAAs, HCC is the most frequent liver-related event. Both albumin levels and LSM are useful for stratifying patients based on their risk of developing HCC during follow-up. New oral antivirals can cure chronic hepatitis C infection, however patients with advanced chronic liver disease are still at risk of presenting with liver-related complications. The most frequent complication after oral antiviral therapy in asymptomatic patients with advanced chronic liver disease was liver cancer. The use of simple parameters such liver stiffness and albumin levels after treatment can help to identify patients at higher or lower risk of liver cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims Liver fibrosis regression but also progression may occur in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) under treatment. There is a need for non-invasive surrogate markers for fibrosis development in AIH to better guide immunosuppressive treatment. The aims of the study were to assess the impact of complete biochemical remission defined as normalisation of aminotransferases and IgG on histological activity and fibrosis development, and the value of repeat transient elastography (TE) measurement for monitoring disease progression in AIH. Methods A total of 131 liver biopsies from 60 patients with AIH and more than 900 TE from 125 patients with AIH, 130 with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and 100 with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), were evaluated. Time intervals between TE were at least 12 months. Patients with AIH were treated for at least six months at first TE. Results In contrast to PBC and PSC, a decrease of liver stiffness (LS) was observed in the whole group of patients with AIH (−6.2%/year; 95% CI −12.6% to −0.2%; p  = 0.04). The largest decrease of LS was observed in patients with severe fibrosis at baseline (F4: −11.7%/year; 95% CI −19% to −3.5%; p  = 0.006). Complete biochemical remission was strongly linked to regression of LS (“remission”: −7.5%/year vs. “no remission”: +1.7%/year, p  <0.001). Similarly, complete biochemical remission predicted low histological disease activity and was the only independent predictor for histological fibrosis regression (relative risk 3.66; 95% CI 1.54–10.2; p  = 0.001). Patients with F3/F4-fibrosis, who remained in biochemical remission showed a considerable decrease of fibrosis stage (3.7 ± 0.5 to 1.8 ± 1.7; p  = 0.007) on histological follow-up. Conclusions This study demonstrates that complete biochemical remission is a reliable predictor of a good prognosis in AIH and leads to fibrosis regression that can be monitored by TE. Lay summary Autoimmune hepatitis is an inflammatory disease of the liver, which often progresses to cirrhosis if left untreated or in the case of insufficient treatment response. Current guidelines have defined biochemical remission (normalisation of biochemical markers for liver inflammation) as a major goal in the treatment of AIH. However, data on the prognostic relevance of this definition are scarce. Herein, we demonstrate that the current definition of biochemical remission is a reliable surrogate for low disease activity on histological assessment and for a beneficial long-term disease course. In addition, we establish transient elastography, a non-invasive ultrasound-based method of measuring scarring of liver tissue, as a reliable tool to monitor disease course in AIH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims Hepatic steatosis (HS) seems common in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, the relative effect of HIV, as well as hepatitis C virus (HCV) in those co-infected, and the influence of HS on liver fibrosis progression are unclear. Methods The LIVEr disease in HIV (LIVEHIV) is a Canadian prospective cohort study using transient elastography and associated controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) to screen for HS and liver fibrosis, in unselected HIV-infected adults. HS progression was defined as development of any grade HS (CAP ⩾248 dB/m), or transition to severe HS (CAP >292 dB/m), for those with any grade HS at baseline. Fibrosis progression was defined as development of significant liver fibrosis (liver stiffness measurement [LSM] >7.1 kPa), or transition to cirrhosis (LSM >12.5 kPa) for those with significant liver fibrosis at baseline. Cox regression analysis was used to assess predictors of HS and fibrosis progression. Results A prospective cohort study was conducted, which included 726 HIV-infected patients (22.7% HCV co-infected). Prevalence of any grade HS did not differ between HIV mono-infected and HIV/HCV co-infected patients (36.1% vs. 38.6%, respectively). 313 patients were followed for a median of 15.4 (interquartile range 8.5–23.0) months. The rate of HS progression was 37.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] 29.2–49.0) and 21.9 (95% CI 15.6–30.7) per 100 person-years in HIV mono-infection and HIV/HCV co-infection, respectively. HCV co-infection was an independent negative predictor of HS progression (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.50, 95% CI 0.28–0.89). HS predicted liver fibrosis progression in HIV mono-infection (aHR 4.18, 95% CI 1.21–14.5), but not in HIV/HCV co-infection. Conclusion HS progresses faster and is associated with liver fibrosis progression in HIV mono-infection but not in HIV/HCV co-infection. Lay summary: Fatty liver is the most frequent liver disease in Western countries. People living with HIV seem at high risk of fatty liver due to frequent metabolic disorders and the long-term effects of antiretroviral therapy. However, due to the invasiveness of liver biopsy, the traditional method of diagnosing fatty liver, there are few data regarding its frequency in people living with HIV. In this study, we used a non-invasive diagnostic tool to analyze the epidemiology of fatty liver in 726 HIV+ patients. We found that fatty liver affects over one-third of people living with HIV. When followed over time, we found that HIV+ patients without HCV co-infection develop fatty liver more frequently than those co-infected with HCV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims Liver iron accumulates in various chronic liver diseases where it is an independent factor for survival and carcinogenesis. We tested a novel room-temperature susceptometer (RTS) to non-invasively assess liver iron concentration (LIC). Methods Two hundred and sixty-four patients with or without signs of iron overload or liver disease were prospectively enrolled. Thirty-five patients underwent liver biopsy with semiquantitative iron determination (Prussian Blue staining), atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS, n = 33), or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, n = 15). Results In vitro studies demonstrated a highly linear (r 2 = 0.998) association between RTS-signal and iron concentration, with a detection limit of 0.3 mM. Using an optimized algorithm, accounting for the skin-to-liver capsule distance, valid measurements could be obtained in 84% of cases. LIC-RTS showed a significant correlation with LIC-AAS (r = 0.74, p <0.001), LIC-MRI (r = 0.64, p <0.001) and hepatocellular iron (r = 0.58, p <0.01), but not with macrophage iron (r = 0.32, p = 0.30). Normal LIC-RTS was 1.4 mg/g dry weight. Besides hereditary and transfusional iron overload, LIC-RTS was also significantly elevated in patients with alcoholic liver disease. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for grade 1, 2 and 3 hepatocellular iron overload were 0.72, 0.89 and 0.97, respectively, with cut-off values of 2.0, 4.0 and 5.0 mg/g dry weight. Notably, the positive and negative predictive values, sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of severe hepatic iron overload (HIO) (grade ≥2) detection, were equal to AAS and superior to all serum iron markers. Depletion of hepatic iron could be efficiently monitored upon phlebotomy. Conclusions RTS allows for the rapid and non-invasive measurement of LIC. In comparison to MRI, it could be a cost-effective bedside method for LIC screening. Lay summary: Novel room-temperature susceptometer (RTS) allows for the rapid, sensitive, and non-invasive measurement of liver iron concentration. In comparison to MRI, it could be a cost-effective bedside method for liver iron concentration screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims Coffee and tea have been proposed to limit the progression of liver fibrosis in established liver disease, but it is unknown if this is also true for subclinical fibrosis. We therefore aimed to evaluate whether coffee and tea consumption are associated with liver stiffness in the general population. Methods The Rotterdam Study is an ongoing prospective population-based cohort. We included participants who underwent transient elastography, ultrasound and completed a food frequency questionnaire. Coffee and tea consumption were categorized into no, moderate (>0–3), or frequent (⩾3) intake (cups/day), and tea further into green, black and herbal tea (no/any). Significant fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness measurements (LSM) ⩾8.0 kPa. We performed regression analyses relating coffee and tea intake with fibrosis, steatosis and log-transformed LSM and adjusted for energy, sugar and creamer intake, age, gender, BMI, steatosis/LSM, HOMA-IR, ALT, alcohol, smoking, soda, healthy diet index and physical activity. Results We included 2,424 participants (age 66.5 ± 7.4; 43% male) of whom 5.2% had LSM ⩾8.0 kPa and 34.6% steatosis. Proportion of LSM ⩾8.0 kPa decreased with higher coffee consumption (7.8%, 6.9% and 4.1% for no, moderate and frequent respectively; P trend = 0.006). This inverse association was confirmed in multivariable regression (OR mod 0.75, 95% CI 0.33–1.67; OR freq 0.39, 95% CI 0.18–0.86; p = 0.005). Amongst tea consumers, only herbal tea consumers (36.3%) had lower log-transformed LSM after adjustment (Beta-0.05, 95% CI-0.08;-0.02, p = 0.001). Subtypes of tea were associated with steatosis in univariate but not multivariable analysis. Conclusions In the general population, frequent coffee and herbal tea consumption were inversely related with liver stiffness but not steatosis. Longitudinal analyses, as well as studies validating and unravelling underlying mechanisms are needed. Lay summary The Rotterdam Study is a large ongoing population study of suburban inhabitants of Rotterdam in whom data on liver stiffness, as proxy for liver fibrosis, presence of fatty liver on ultrasound and detailed information on coffee and tea consumption were obtained in 2,424 participants. The consumption of herbal tea and daily consumption of three or more cups of coffee was related to the presence of lower liver stiffness, independent of a great number of other lifestyle and environmental factors. Previous studies have found a protective effect of coffee on established liver disease and we now show for the first time that this effect is already measurable in the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims NAFLD is highly prevalent but only a small subset of patients develop advanced liver fibrosis with impaired liver-related prognosis. We aimed to compare blood fibrosis tests and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by FibroScan for the diagnosis of liver fibrosis and the evaluation of prognosis in NAFLD. Methods Diagnostic accuracy was evaluated in a cross-sectional study including 452 NAFLD patients with liver biopsy (NASH-CRN fibrosis stage), LSM, and eight blood fibrosis tests (BARD, NAFLD fibrosis score, FibroMeter NAFLD , aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), FIB4, FibroTest, Hepascore, FibroMeter V2G ). Prognostic accuracy was evaluated in a longitudinal study including 360 NAFLD patients. Results LSM and FibroMeter V2G were the two best-performing tests in the cross-sectional study: AUROCs for advanced fibrosis (F3/4) were, respectively, 0.831 ± 0.019 and 0.817 ± 0.020 ( p ⩽0.041 vs. other tests); rates of patients with ⩾90% negative/positive predictive values for F3/4 were 56.4% and 46.7% ( p <0.001 vs. other tests); Obuchowski indexes were 0.834 ± 0.014 and 0.798 ± 0.016 ( p ⩽0.036 vs. other tests). Two fibrosis classifications were developed to precisely estimate the histological fibrosis stage from LSM or FibroMeter V2G results without liver biopsy (diagnostic accuracy, respectively: 80.8% vs. 77.4%, p = 0.190). Kaplan-Meier curves in the longitudinal study showed that both classifications categorised NAFLD patients into subgroups with significantly different prognoses ( p <0.001): the higher was the class of the fibrosis classification, the worse was the prognosis. Conclusions LSM and FibroMeter V2G were the most accurate of nine evaluated tests for the non-invasive diagnosis of liver fibrosis in NAFLD. LSM and FibroMeter V2G fibrosis classifications help physicians estimate both fibrosis stage and patient prognosis in clinical practice. Lay summary The amount of liver fibrosis is the main determinant of the liver-related prognosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We evaluated eight blood tests and FibroScan in a cross-sectional diagnostic study and found that FibroScan and the blood test FibroMeter V2G were the two most accurate tests for the non-invasive evaluation of liver fibrosis in NAFLD. A longitudinal prognostic study showed these two tests initially developed for the diagnosis are also prognostic markers as they allow for the stratification of NAFLD patients in several subgroups with significantly different prognosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims: Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement represents the best predictor of clinical decompensation (CD) in cirrhotic patients. Recently data show that measurement of spleen stiffness (SS) has an excellent correlation with HVPG levels. Aim of the present prospective study was to assess SS predictive value for CD compared to HVPG, liver stiffness (LS), and other non-invasive tests for portal hypertension in a cohort of patients with HCV-related compensated cirrhosis. Methods: From an initial cohort of 124 patients, 92 underwent baseline LS, SS, HVPG measurements and upper gastrointestinal endoscopy at enrolment and then followed-up for 2years or until the occurrence of the first CD. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used for determining judgement criteria associated parameters. Accuracy of predictive factors was evaluated using c statistic. The final model was internally validated using the bootstrap method. Results: During follow-up, 30 out 92 (32.6%) patients developed CD. At univariate analysis varices at enrolment, all non-invasive parameters, HVPG, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) resulted clinical predictors of CD. At multivariate analysis only SS (p =0.0001) and MELD (p =0.014) resulted as predictive factors. A decision algorithm based on the results of a predictive model was proposed to detect patients with low risk of decompensation. Conclusions: This study shows that in compensated cirrhotic patients a SS and MELD predictive model represents an accurate predictor of CD with accuracy at least equivalent to that of HVPG. If confirmed by further studies, SS and MELD could represent valid alternatives to HVPG as prognostic indicator of CD in HCV-related cirrhosis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background & Aims: Controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) evaluated with transient elastography (FibroScan®) is a recent method for non-invasive assessment of steatosis. Its usefulness in clinical practice is unknown. We prospectively investigated the determinants of CAP failure and the relationships between CAP and clinical or biological parameters in a large cohort of consecutive patients. Methods: All CAP examinations performed in adult patients with suspected chronic liver disease were included. CAP failure was defined as zero valid shot. The following factors were analyzed for their influence on CAP value and the relationships between CAP and clinico-biological parameters: age, gender, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, diabetes, metabolic syndrome, alcohol use, liver stiffness measurement, indication, and different biological parameters. Results: CAP failure occurred in 7.7% of 5323 examinations. By multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with CAP measurement failure were female gender, BMI, and metabolic syndrome. By multivariate analysis, factors significantly associated with elevated CAP were BMI [25–30]kg/m2, BMI >30kg/m2, metabolic syndrome, alcohol >14 drink/week and liver stiffness >6kPa. CAP increased with the number of parameters of metabolic syndrome, BMI, waist circumference, the presence of diabetes or hypertension, and the cause of the disease. In the 440 patients with liver biopsy, for the diagnosis of steatosis >10%, steatosis >33%, and steatosis >66%, AUROCs of CAP were 0.79 (95% CI 0.74–0.84, p <0.001), 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.88, p <0.001), 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.88, p <0.001), respectively. Conclusions: CAP provides an immediate assessment of steatosis simultaneously with liver stiffness measurement. The strong association of CAP with the metabolic syndrome and alcohol use could be of interest for the follow-up of NAFLD or alcoholic patients. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background & Aims: Patients with cirrhosis and small hepatocellular carcinoma with normal bilirubin and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) <10mmHg have >70% 5-year survival after hepatic resection. On the contrary, patients with HVPG ⩾10mm Hg (clinically significant portal hypertension, CSPH) frequently develop decompensation following surgery, with around 50% 5-year survival. Liver stiffness (LS) evaluation by transient elastography might non-invasively identify CSPH. We investigated the usefulness of LS predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and potentially resectable liver tumors. Methods: Ninety-seven consecutive Child-Pugh A patients with potentially resectable liver tumors referred for HVPG measurement were prospectively evaluated. In fasting conditions LS was measured before the hemodynamic study. Results: HVPG could be measured in all patients, whereas LS could not be measured in 18 (18.5%) obese patients. In the 79 patients with valid LS, 32 (40.5%) had CSPH; mean HVPG was 8.8±4.7mmHg. Mean LS was 18.4±12.3kPa. LS showed a moderate correlation with HVPG (r=0.552; p <0.001). LS<13.6kPa had high sensitivity (91%) but low specificity (57%) excluding CSPH. Conversely, LS>21kPa had low sensitivity (53%) and high specificity (91%) predicting CSPH. 35% of patients had LS between 13.6 and 21kPa (“grey zone”). Conclusions: These data suggest that in real-life scenarios half of patients with potentially resectable liver nodules can be non-invasively classified as having or not CSPH by LS. However, in the remaining half, LS is either not applicable or inaccurate. In this last population HVPG is still a non replaceable method to detect CSPH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims: The prognosis of patients with chronic liver disease is to a great extent determined by the presence and degree of portal hypertension (PHT). Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) has been shown to be an accurate prognostic index in patients with cirrhosis. Transient elastography is a non-invasive procedure that assesses liver fibrosis through the measurement of liver stiffness (LS). In several reports, LS was found to be correlated with HVPG. LS could therefore be useful to identify patients with significant PHT. The aim of the present study was to prospectively assess and to compare the prognostic performances of LS and HVPG in patients with chronic liver disease. Methods: One hundred patients with chronic liver disease underwent LS and HVPG measurements on the same day. Patients were thereafter followed-up for 2years or until they experienced a complication related to their liver disease. Results: Within the two-year follow-up, 41 patients developed, at least, one liver disease related complication. The performances of HVPG and LS for predicting the occurrence of these complications were not significantly different: AUROC 0.815 [0.727–0.903] and 0.837 [0.754–0.920], respectively. When considering only complications related to PHT, both methods were found to be similarly accurate: AUROC 0.830 [0.751–0.910] and 0.845 [0.767–0.823], for HVPG and LS, respectively. When patients were divided in two groups according to a LS value below or above 21.1kPa, actuarial rates of remaining free of any complication at 2years were 85.4% vs. 29.5%, respectively. When only PHT related complications were considered, these rates were 100% vs. 47.5%, respectively. The performances of LS and HVPG were also similar in the subgroup of 65 patients with cirrhosis. Conclusions: LS proved as effective as HVPG in predicting clinical decompensation and PHT related complications in patients with chronic liver disease. Therefore, LS could be a valuable clinical tool to avoid invasive procedures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background/Aims: Liver stiffness measurement by transient elastography is a very promising non-invasive method for the diagnosis of fibrosis in chronic liver diseases. However, studies on normal values of liver stiffness in healthy subjects are still lacking. The aim of the present study was to prospectively assess liver stiffness values in the general population and to determine potential factors, which may influence these values. Methods: Liver stiffness measurements were performed in 429 consecutive apparently healthy subjects, without overt cause of liver disease and normal liver enzymes, undergoing a free medical check-up. Results: Mean liver stiffness value was 5.49±1.59kPa. Transient elastography failure was observed in 4.6% of the cases. The failure rate increased with BMI, reaching 88% for values above 40kg/m2. Liver stiffness values were higher in men than in women (5.81±1.54 vs 5.23±1.59kPa, p =0.0002) and in subjects with BMI>30kg/m2 (6.26±1.89 vs 5.37±1.51kPa, p =0.0003). Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed in 59 (13.7%) subjects. After adjustment for gender and BMI, liver stiffness values were higher in subjects with metabolic syndrome than in those without (6.51±1.64 vs 5.33±1.51kPa, p <0.0001). Conclusions: Liver stiffness values in the general population are influenced independently by gender, BMI and metabolic syndrome. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]