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Background & Aims: Although the discriminative ability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is generally considered acceptable, its calibration is still unclear. In a validation study, we assessed the discriminative performance and calibration of 3 versions of the model: original MELD-TIPS, used to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS); classic MELD-Mayo; and MELD-UNOS, used by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). We also explored recalibrating and updating the model., Methods: In total, 776 patients who underwent elective TIPS (TIPS cohort) and 445 unselected patients (non-TIPS cohort) were included. Three, 6 and 12-month mortality predictions were calculated by the 3 MELD versions: discrimination was assessed by c-statistics and calibration by comparing deciles of predicted and observed risks. Cox and Fine and Grey models were used for recalibration and prognostic analyses., Results: In the TIPS/non-TIPS cohorts, the etiology of liver disease was viral in 402/188, alcoholic in 185/130, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in 65/33; mean follow-up±SD was 25±9/19±21 months; and the number of deaths at 3-6-12 months was 57-102-142/31-47-99, respectively. C-statistics ranged from 0.66 to 0.72 in TIPS and 0.66 to 0.76 in non-TIPS cohorts across prediction times and scores. A post hoc analysis revealed worse c-statistics in non-viral cirrhosis with more pronounced and significant worsening in the non-TIPS cohort. Calibration was acceptable with MELD-TIPS but largely unsatisfactory with MELD-Mayo and -UNOS whose performance improved much after recalibration. A prognostic analysis showed that age, albumin, and TIPS indication might be used to update the MELD., Conclusions: In this validation study, the performance of the MELD score was largely unsatisfactory, particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. MELD recalibration and candidate variables for an update to the MELD score are proposed., Lay Summary: While the discriminative performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is credited to be fair to good, its calibration, the correspondence of observed to predicted mortality, is still unsettled. We found that application of 3 different versions of the MELD in 2 independent cirrhosis cohorts yielded largely imprecise mortality predictions particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. Thus, we propose a recalibration and suggest candidate variables for an update to the model., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest that pertain to this work. Please refer to the accompanying ICMJE disclosure forms for further details., (Copyright © 2021 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: The success of pegylated-interferon (PegIFN)/ribavirin (Rbv) therapy of chronic hepatitis C is compromised by liver fibrosis. Whether fibrosis equally affects the two PegIFNα-based therapies is unknown. To assess the response to the two PegIFN regimens in patients with different degree of liver fibrosis., Methods: A sub-analysis of the MIST study: 431 consecutive naïve patients randomly assigned, based on HCV genotype, to receive either (A) PegIFNα2a 180 μg/wk plus daily Rbv 800-1200 mg or (B) PegIFNα2b 1.5 μg/kg/week plus daily Rbv 800-1200 mg, were stratified according to Ishak staging (S) into mild (S0-S2) or moderate (S3, S4) fibrosis and cirrhosis (S5, S6)., Results: In A the sustained virological response (SVR) rates were not significantly influenced by fibrosis stage (71% in S0-S2, 66% in S3, S4, 53% in S5, S6, p=0.12), compared to B where the SVR rates differed according to fibrosis stage (65%, 46%, and 38%, p=0.004, respectively). This was even more so in HCV-1/4 patients treated with PegIFNα2b where the SVR rates were twice as many in S0-S2 vs. S≥3 (44% vs. 22%, p=0.02), while in A the SVR rates were similar between the two fibrosis subgroups (S0-S2: 47% vs. S≥3: 48%, p=0.8). By logistic regression analysis genotype 1/4 and lack of rapid virological response were independent predictors of treatment failure in both treatment groups, while S≥3 fibrosis was associated to PegIFNα2b treatment failure, only (OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.4-5.68, p=0.004)., Conclusions: Liver fibrosis was an independent moderator of treatment outcome in patients receiving PegIFNα2b, not in those receiving PegIFNα2a., (Copyright © 2011 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)