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The aim of this prospective study of 55 patients was to analyse the cross-sectional and longitudinal relationship between disability and physical and psychological variables after conservative treatment of trigger finger and to determine the predictive factors for the post-treatment disability score and change in disability score. The primary outcome measure was the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand questionnaire. Potential predictive factors included pain, number of triggering events, depression, anxiety and kinesiophobia. Disability correlated strongly with anxiety, moderately with pain and depression and weakly with triggering and kinesiophobia. The change in depression score correlated significantly with the change in disability score. Post-treatment pain and anxiety scores accounted for 47% of the explained variance in disability score. Improvement in depression after treatment accounted for 18% of the explained variance in disability change score. Psychological variables appear to be potential predictors of disability. Level of evidence: IV.