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We modelled the flow of the Larsen C and northernmost Larsen D ice shelves, Antarctic Peninsula, using a model of continuum mechanics of ice flow, and applied a fracture criterion to the simulated velocities to investigate the ice shelf’s present-day stability. Constraints come from satellite data and geophysical measurements from the 2008/09 austral summer. Ice-shelf thickness was derived from BEDMAP and ICESat data, and the density–depth relationship was inferred from our in situ seismic reflection data. We obtained excellent agreements between modelled and measured ice-flow velocities, and inferred and observed distributions of rifts and crevasses. Residual discrepancies between regions of predicted fracture and observed crevasses are concentrated in zones where we assume a significant amount of marine ice and therefore altered mechanical properties in the ice column. This emphasizes the importance of these zones and shows that more data are needed to understand their influence on ice-shelf stability. Modelled flow velocities and the corresponding stress distribution indicate that the Larsen C ice shelf is stable at the moment. However, weakening of the elongated marine ice zones could lead to acceleration of the ice shelf due to decoupling from the slower parts in the northern inlets and south of Kenyon Peninsula, leading to a velocity distribution similar to that in the Larsen B ice shelf prior to its disintegration.

A structural glaciological description and analysis of surface morphological features of the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, is derived from satellite images spanning the period 1963–2007. The data are evaluated in two time ranges: a comparison of a 1963 satellite image photomosaic with a modern digital mosaic compiled using 2003/04 austral summer data; and an image series since 2003 showing recent evolution of the shelf. We map the ice-shelf edge, rift swarms, crevasses and crevasse traces, and linear longitudinal structures (called ‘flow stripes’ or ‘streak lines’). The latter are observed to be continuous over distances of up to 200 km from the grounding line to the ice-shelf edge, with little evidence of changes in pattern over that distance. Integrated velocity measurements along a flowline indicate that the shelf has been stable for ∼560 years in the mid-shelf area. Linear longitudinal features may be grouped into 12 units, each related to one or a small group of outlet feeder glaciers to the shelf. We observe that the boundaries between these flow units often mark rift terminations. The boundary zones originate upstream at capes, islands or other suture areas between outlet glaciers. In agreement with previous work, our findings imply that rift terminations within such suture zones indicate that they contain anomalously soft ice. We thus suggest that suture zones within the Larsen C ice shelf, and perhaps within ice shelves more generally, may act to stabilize them by reducing regional stress intensities and thus rates of rift lengthening.

Antarctic tabular icebergs are important active components of the ice–ocean system. To investigate the relevance of inherent ice dynamics to iceberg evolution, we developed a numerical model based on the fundamental equations of ice-shelf flow and heat transfer, forced by environmental parameters of the ice–ocean–atmosphere system. Model experiments with idealized icebergs of constant density show that the strain thinning rate for a typical iceberg with a thickness of 250 m and a temperature of −15°C is about 1 m a−1. Sensitivity studies for different scenarios of environmental conditions confirmed the reliability of our model. A 5 year simulation of the evolution of iceberg A-38B yielded a mean decrease in thickness from 220 m to 106.3 m, 95% of which was caused by basal melting, 1% by surface melting and 4% by strain thinning. We found iceberg spreading decelerating by about 75%, and ice temperatures being strongly affected by progressive erosion of the relatively warm basal layers and warming in the uppermost part. According to the model results, basal melting is the primary cause of change of iceberg geometry during drift, whereas strain thinning is only relevant in cold areas where basal melting is low.