Search

The generation of strong earthquakes is a long‐debated problem in seismology, and its importance is increased by the possible implications for earthquake forecasting. It is hypothesized that the earthquake generation processes are anticipated by several phenomena occurring within a nucleation region. These phenomena, also defined as preparatory processes, load stress on the fault leading it to reach a critical state. In this paper, we investigate the seismicity preceding 19 moderate (Mw ≥ 3.5) earthquakes at The Geysers, Northern California, aiming to verify the existence of a preparatory phase before their occurrence. We apply an unsupervised K‐means clustering technique to analyze time series of physics‐related features extracted from catalog information and estimated for events occurred before the mainshocks. Specifically, we study the temporal evolution of the b‐value from the Gutenberg‐Richter (b), the magnitude of completeness (Mc), the fractal dimension (Dc), the inter‐event time (dt), and the moment rate (M˙0 ${\dot{M}}_{0}$). Our analysis shows that out of 19 moderate magnitude events considered, a common preparatory phase for 11 events is clearly identified, plus other five events for which we can guess a preparatory phase but with different characteristics from the previous ones. The latter result confirms that even within the same tectonic context different possible activation behaviors may exist. The duration of the preparatory process ranges between about 16 hr and 4 days. We observe that also for the retrieved preparatory process a decrease in b, Mc, and Dc, and an increase of M˙0 ${\dot{M}}_{0}$. Finally, we show a clear correlation between events with a preparation phase and the location of injection's wells, suggesting an important role of fluids in the preparatory process. Plain Language Summary: We investigate the preparatory phase of moderate magnitude‐induced earthquakes at The Geysers geothermal field in California by studying the spatiotemporal evolution and dynamic properties of small magnitude events and using an unsupervised machine learning approach. To this aim, we rely on features extracted from seismic catalog information that are used for a K‐means clustering analysis. Our results highlight changes in the seismicity characteristics before the moderate‐induced earthquakes. We find that most of the analyzed target earthquakes present a preparatory phase, and that most of the cases the latter presents common characteristics in their key features. We show that the seismicity clusters in space and time before moderate events also becoming more energetic. We estimate a duration for the detected preparatory phases that ranges from 16 hr to 4 days. Finally, we show that the presence of a preparatory phase is correlated to the proximity of injection's wells, suggesting a significant role of fluids in the earthquake's nucleation process. Key Points: Moderate‐induced earthquakes at The Geysers can be preceded by a preparatory phase detectable using K‐means clustering on catalog featuresThe detected preparatory phase has common characteristics presenting negative trends of b‐value, Mc, and Dc and a positive trend of M˙0 ${\dot{M}}_{0}$The earthquakes with a preparatory phase are located nearer to the injection's wells in the area than the events without it [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following laboratory experiments and friction theory, slow slip events and seismicity rate accelerations observed before mainshocks are sometimes interpreted as evidence of a nucleation phase. However, such precursory observations still remain scarce and are associated with different time and length scales, raising doubts about their actual preparatory nature. We study the 2017 Valparaiso Mw = 6.9 earthquake, which was preceded by aseismic slip accompanied by an intense seismicity, suspected to reflect its nucleation phase. We complement previous observations, which have focused only on precursory activity, with a continuous investigation of seismic and aseismic processes from the foreshock sequence to the post‐mainshock phase. By building a high‐resolution earthquake catalog and searching for anomalous seismicity rate increases compared to aftershock triggering models, we highlight an over‐productive seismicity starting within the foreshock sequence and persisting several days after the mainshock. Using repeating earthquakes and high‐rate GPS observations, we highlight a transient aseismic perturbation starting 1‐day before the first foreshock and continuing after the mainshock. The estimated slip rate over time is lightly impacted by large magnitude earthquakes and does not accelerate toward the mainshock. Therefore, the unusual seismic and aseismic activity observed during the 2017 Valparaiso sequence might be interpreted as the result of a slow slip event starting before the mainshock and continuing beyond it. Rather than pointing to a possible nucleation phase of the 2017 Valparaiso mainshock, the identified slow slip event acts as an aseismic loading of nearby faults, increasing the seismic activity, and thus the likelihood of a large rupture. Plain Language Summary: Both laboratory experiments and friction theory show that earthquakes do not begin abruptly but are preceded by an accelerating slip associated with a seismicity increase. On the field, however, such precursory observations still remain scarce and are associated with different characteristic time and length scales, raising doubts that they actually reflect the same nucleation phenomena. We study the 2017 Valparaiso M = 6.9 earthquake, which was preceded by both a slow slip and an intense seismicity suspected to reflect such nucleation phase. We complement previous studies, that have focused only on precursory activity, with a continuous investigation of seismic and slow slip before and after the mainshock. Using refined earthquake detection tools, we highlight a seismicity excess starting before and persisting several days after the mainshock. Using repeating earthquakes and high‐resolution GPS, we show that the slow slip does not accelerate toward the mainshock, but continues after it. Therefore, rather than pointing to a possible accelerating nucleation phase of the Valparaiso mainshock, we suggest that the slow slip drives an enhanced seismic activity that is not mainshock‐directed. Within such slow‐slip driven seismicity, the probability of triggering a large earthquake (subsequently considered as the mainshock) is increased. Key Points: We use a high resolution seismic catalog and GPS to investigate seismic and aseismic process before and after the Valparaiso mainshockAn unusually high seismicity and a slow slip event is continuously observed from the foreshock sequence up to days after the mainshockRather than a nucleation phase of the mainshock, the slow slip event acts as an aseismic loading of nearby faults during the entire sequence [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquakes can be dynamically triggered by the passing waves of other distant events. The frequent occurrence of dynamic triggering offers tangible hope in revealing earthquake nucleation processes. However, the physical mechanisms behind earthquake dynamic triggering have remained unclear, and contributions of competing hypotheses are challenging to isolate with individual case studies. To gain a systematic understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of dynamic triggering, we investigate the phenomenon in southern California from 2008 to 2017. We use the Quake Template Matching catalog and an approach that does not assume an earthquake occurrence distribution. We develop a new set of statistics to examine the significance of seismicity‐rate changes as well as moment‐release changes. Our results show that up to 70% of 1,388 global M ≥ 6 events may have triggered earthquakes in southern California. The triggered seismicity often occurred several hours after the passing seismic waves. The Salton Sea Geothermal Field, San Jacinto fault, and Coso Geothermal Field are particularly prone to triggering. Although adjacent fault segments can be triggered by the same earthquakes, the majority of triggered earthquakes seem to be uncorrelated, suggesting that the process is primarily governed by local conditions. Further, the occurrence of dynamic triggering does not seem to correlate with ground motion (e.g., peak ground velocity) at the triggered sites. These observations indicate that nonlinear processes may have primarily regulated the dynamic triggering cases. Plain Language Summary: Earthquakes interact with each other, such as mainshocks triggering nearby aftershocks. Earthquake dynamic triggering is a type of interaction where seismic waves from an earthquake trigger other earthquakes beyond several fault lengths, and sometimes, up to thousands of kilometers away. Triggered earthquakes may occur upon the arrival of the seismic waves but may also be delayed hours after the wave passage, suggesting the involvement of time‐dependent processes. Identifying delayed cases relies on robust measures of seismicity‐rate changes. Here we present a new method that can identify triggering cases without many assumptions. We find that earthquakes in southern California are frequently triggered by distant earthquakes around the globe, and the triggered earthquakes tend to cluster in space and time. We also find that the triggering incidences do not seem to correlate with the seismic wave characteristics of the distant earthquakes. Our findings suggest that dynamically triggered earthquakes in southern California are likely caused by time‐dependent, local complex processes. Key Points: Earthquake dynamic triggering is ubiquitous in southern CaliforniaTriggered earthquakes are frequently associated with significant moment‐release anomalies and are likely controlled by local processesOur procedure does not assume that seismicity follows a Poissonian distribution when identifying dynamic triggering [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a dense seismic array of 1,108 vertical‐component geophones within a 600‐m footprint to detect thousands of small earthquakes near an active strand of the San Jacinto fault zone in southern California during a 26‐day period. We first correct site effects using multichannel cross‐correlations of the P‐waves of 256 cataloged earthquakes, and then perform beamforming analysis on the continuous waveforms in a slowness range from −0.4 to 0.4 s/km in both the east and north directions. At each time step, we identify the beam slowness with maximum amplitude and apply a picking algorithm to identify 13,408 events. These detections include over 55.6% of the events in the Quake Template Matching (QTM) catalog for all of southern California during the same time period and 70% of those within 100 km of the array. In addition, we detect over 10,000 new events, not in the QTM catalog. Many of these events can also be seen in records from nearby borehole seismic stations. Measured slownesses for the catalog and newly‐discovered events group into clusters that can be associated with QTM earthquake locations, but with slowness values considerably distorted from predictions based on a 1‐D velocity model, presumably owing to strong velocity heterogeneity near the San Jacinto Fault. Amplitudes of the detected events obey a Gutenberg‐Richter distribution with a b‐value close to one. Foreshocks are common among these detected events, increasing in rate before mainshocks following an inverse Omori's law. Plain Language Summary: We show that an array of over 1,000 seismometers located on a small patch of the San Jacinto Fault in southern California can detect many times more earthquakes than those in standard earthquake catalogs. Although accurate locations cannot be obtained for most of these newly identified events, their amplitudes indicate they obey similar scaling with size as larger magnitude earthquakes. Many of the larger events are preceded by foreshocks and the foreshock rate increases in the time leading up to the mainshocks. Our results suggest that future deployments of small‐aperture seismometer arrays could be used to complement existing seismic networks to probe earthquake activity in great detail. Key Points: We detect over 13,000 seismic events during 26 days in 2014 using a dense nodal array on the San Jacinto fault zone in southern CaliforniaMost of the detections are newly discovered earthquakes not in existing catalogsForeshocks are common among these earthquakes, increasing in the rate before their mainshocks following an inverse Omori's law [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]