Search

There are many reports on the occurrence of anomalous changes in the ionosphere prior to large earthquakes. However, whether or not these changes are reliable precursors that could be useful for earthquake prediction is controversial within the scientific community. To test a possible statistical relationship between ionospheric disturbances and earthquakes, we compare changes in the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere with occurrences of M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes globally for 2000 - 2014. We use TEC data from the global ionosphere map (GIM) and an earthquake list declustered for aftershocks. For each earthquake, we look for anomalous changes in GIM-TEC within 2.5° latitude and 5.0° longitude of the earthquake location (the spatial resolution of GIM-TEC). Our analysis has not found any statistically significant changes in GIM-TEC prior to earthquakes. Thus, we have found no evidence that would suggest that monitoring changes in GIM-TEC might be useful for predicting earthquakes.

Heki (2011) and Heki and Enomoto (2013) claimed that anomalous, yet similar, increases of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) started ~40 min prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, as well as before other Mw > 8 earthquakes. The authors concluded that the reported TEC anomalies were likely related to the pending earthquakes, suggesting also that TEC monitoring may be useful for future earthquake prediction. Here we carefully examine the findings of Heki (2011) and Heki and Enomoto (2013) by performing new analyses of the same TEC data. Our interpretation is that the 40 min onset of the ionospheric precursors is an artifact induced by the definition of the reference line adopted in analyzing TEC variations. We also discuss this repeatability in the tectonic and geodynamic context of the earthquakes. By performing a Superimposed Epoch Analysis of TEC data, we show that, however, the TEC increase reported by Heki (2011) was not particularly anomalous. We conclude that the TEC precursors reported by Heki (2011) and Heki and Enomoto (2013) are not useful for developing short-term earthquake prediction capabilities.

We review the recent paper by Su et al. (2013). Using Global Position System and Global Ionospheric Maps data, Su et al. claimed to have found ionospheric precursors a few days before the 16 October 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake. They proposed that this type of analysis of ionospheric data may be useful for locating forthcoming large earthquakes. In this Comment, we reexamine these data and show that ionospheric anomalies reported by Su et al. were not precursors to the Hector Mine earthquake. Therefore, their proposed analysis is not useful in the context of earthquake prediction.

Moore (1964) in a letter published in Nature reported disturbances in geomagnetic field data prior to the 27 March 1964 Alaska earthquake. After the publication of this report, many papers have shown magnetic changes preceding earthquakes. However, a causal relationship between preearthquake magnetic changes and impending earthquakes has never been demonstrated. As a consequence, after 50 years, magnetic disturbances in the geomagnetic field are still candidate precursory phenomena. Some researchers consider the investigation of ultra low frequency (ULF: 0.001–10 Hz) magnetic data the correct approach for identifying precursory signatures of earthquakes. Other researchers, instead, have recently reviewed many published ULF magnetic changes that preceded earthquakes and have shown that these are not actual precursors. The recent studies by Currie and Waters (2014) and Han et al. (2014) aim to provide relevant new findings in the search for ULF magnetic precursory signals. However, in order to contribute to science, alleged precursors must be shown to be valid and reproducible by objective testing. Here we will briefly discuss the state of the art in the search for ULF magnetic precursors, paying special attention to the recent findings of Currie and Waters (2014) and Han et al. (2014). We do not see in these two reports significant evidence that may support the observation of precursory signatures of earthquakes in ULF magnetic records.

[1] During the last ten years, fractal analysis of ultra low frequency (ULF) geomagnetic field components has been proposed as one of the most promising tools to highlight magnetic precursory signals possibly generated by the preparation processes of earthquakes. Several papers claim seismogenic changes in the fractal features of the geomagnetic field some months before earthquakes occur. The target of the present paper is to put forth a qualitative investigation on the fractal characteristics of ULF magnetic signatures that previous authors have claimed to be related without doubt to strong earthquakes. This analysis takes into account both the temporal evolution of the geomagnetic field fractal parameters reported in previous researches and the temporal evolution of global geomagnetic activity. Running averages of the geomagnetic indices ΣKp and Ap are plotted into the original figures from the previous publications. This simple analysis shows that the fractal features of the ULF geomagnetic field are closely related to the geomagnetic activity both before and after the earthquake occurs. The correlation between the geomagnetic field fractal parameters and geomagnetic activity is clearly shown over both long and short time scales. In light of this, the present paper shows that fractal behaviors of previously claimed seismogenic ULF magnetic signatures depend mainly on geomagnetic activity due to solar-terrestrial interaction. Therefore, previously reported association with the preparation process of the earthquake is dubious.