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Understanding the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) requires knowing if and when they will impact and their properties upon impact. Of particular importance is the strength of a CME's southward magnetic field component (Bz ). Kay et al. (2013, https://doi:10.1088/0004-637X/775/1/5, 2015, https://doi:10.1088/948 0004-637X/805/2/168) have shown that the simplified analytic model Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) can reproduce the deflection and rotation of CMEs. Kay, Gopalswamy, Reinard, and Opher (2017, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/835/2/117) introduced ForeCAT In situ Data Observer, which uses ForeCAT results to simulate magnetic field profiles. ForeCAT In situ Data Observer reproduces the in situ observations on roughly hourly time scales, suggesting that these models could be extremely useful for predictions of Bz . However, as with all models, both models are sensitive to their input parameters, which may not be precisely known for predictions. We explore this sensitivity using ensembles having small changes in the initial latitude, longitude, and orientation of the erupting CME. We explore the effects of different background magnetic field models and find that the changes in deflection and rotation resulting from the uncertainty in the initial parameters tend to exceed the changes from dierent magnetic backgrounds. The range in the in situ proles tends to scale with the range in the deflection and rotation. We also consider a simple arrival time model using ForeCAT results and nd an average absolute error of only 3 hr. We show that an uncertainty in the CME position of 8.1 ± 6.9 leads to variations of 6 hr in the arrival time. This measure depends strongly on the location of impact within the CME with the arrival time changing less for impacts near the nose.

Predicting the effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact requires knowing if impact will occur, which part of the CME impacts, and its magnetic properties. We explore the relation between CME deflections and rotations, which change the position and orientation of a CME, and the resulting magnetic profiles at 1 AU. For 45 STEREO-era, Earth-impacting CMEs, we determine the solar source of each CME, reconstruct its coronal position and orientation, and perform a ForeCAT (Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory) simulation of the coronal dei¬‚ection and rotation. From the reconstructed and modeled CME deflections and rotations, we determine the solar cycle variation and correlations with CME properties. We assume no evolution between the outer corona and 1 AU and use the ForeCAT results to drive the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO) in situ magnetic field model, allowing for comparisons with ACE and Wind observations. We do not attempt to reproduce the arrival time. On average FIDO reproduces the in situ magnetic field for each vector component with an error equivalent to 35 percent of the average total magnetic field strength when the total modeled magnetic field is scaled to match the average observed value. Random walk best fits distinguish between ForeCAT's ability to determine FIDO's input parameters and the limitations of the simple flux rope model. These best fits reduce the average error to 30 percent.The FIDO results are sensitive to changes of order a degree in the CME latitude, longitude, and tilt, suggesting that accurate space weather predictions require accurate measurements of a CME's position and orientation.