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Temperature Variability of the Baltic Sea Since 1850 and Attribution to Atmospheric Forcing Variables

This work was funded by the Saudi ARAMCO-KAUST Marine Environmental Observatory (SAKMEO) and the KAUST Office of Sponsored Research (OSR) under the Collaborative Research Grant (CRG) program (Grant # URF/1/2979-01-01). The authors would like to thank Dr. Hari Dasari for providing the atmospheric forcing, and Dr. Nikolaos Zarokanellos and Michel Campbell for valuable advices on various technical issues with the gliders. The authors are also grateful for the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Our Ocean group for providing the G1SST dataset.

The tropical El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual variability that impacts climate throughout the Pacific. The California Current System (CCS) in the northeast Pacific warms and cools from year to year, with or without a corresponding tropical El Nino or La Nina event. We update the record of warm and cool events in the CCS for 1950-2016 and use composite sea level pressure (SLP) and surface wind anomalies to explore the atmospheric forcing mechanisms associated with tropical and CCS warm and cold events. CCS warm events are associated with negative SLP anomalies in the NE Pacific – a strong and southeastward displacement of the wintertime Aleutian Low, a weak North Pacific High and a regional pattern of cyclonic wind anomalies that are poleward over the CCS. We use a first order auto-regressive model to show that regional North Pacific forcing is predominant in SST variations throughout most of the CCS, while remote tropical forcing is more important in the far southern portion of the CCS. In our analysis, cool events in the CCS tend to be more closely associated with tropical La Nina than are warm events in the CCS with tropical El Nino; the forcing of co-occurring cool events is analogous, but nearly opposite, to that of warm events.

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) was an environmental disaster, which highlighted the urgent need to predict the transport and dispersion of hydrocarbon. Although the variability of the atmospheric forcing plays a major role in the upper ocean circulation and transport of the pollutants, the air-sea interaction on various time scales is not well understood. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the atmospheric forcing and upper ocean response in the GoM from seasonal to diurnal time scales, using climatologies derived from long-term observations, in situ observations from two field campaigns, and a coupled model. The atmospheric forcing in the GoM is characterized by striking seasonality. In the summer, the time-average large-scale forcing is weak, despite occasional extreme winds associated with hurricanes. In the winter, the atmospheric forcing is much stronger, and dominated by synoptic variability on time scales of 3–7 days associated with winter storms and cold air outbreaks. The diurnal cycle is more pronounced during the summer, when sea breeze circulations affect the coastal regions and nighttime wind maxima occur over the offshore waters. Realtime predictions from a high-resolution atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled model were evaluated for both summer and winter conditions during the Grand LAgrangian Deployment (GLAD) in July–August 2012 and the Surfzone Coastal Oil Pathways Experiment (SCOPE) in November–December 2013. The model generally captured the variability of atmospheric forcing on all scales, but suffered from some systematic errors.

The transport of Upper Labrador Sea Water (ULSW) at Flemish Cap (47°N/45°W) is investigated in the period 1960–2009 using the output from an 8 km resolution numerical ocean model. The average model transport of ULSW decreases southward from 6.7 Sv at 53°N to 4.5 Sv at 45°N due to interior pathways. The largest fraction of the total ULSW volume transport goes around Flemish Cap within the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC, 72%) but a significant part goes through Flemish Pass (20%). At interannual timescales, the variability at Flemish Pass shows a distinct behavior when compared to the variability in the DWBC and to the upstream fluctuations. A running correlation method is applied to obtain the connection of the transport variability at Flemish Pass with several quantities, representative for different physical mechanisms: (1) the North Atlantic Oscillation index, (2) the Ekman transport, (3) the rate of ULSW formation in the Labrador Sea, (4) the position of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) relative to the slope and (5) the averaged transport in the subpolar gyre. Weakened or strengthened transport of ULSW through Flemish Pass coincides with changes of the atmospheric forcing or with changes of the NAC‘s position. Strong meandering of the NAC close to the DWBC reduces the transport off Flemish Cap, and the ULSW flow is “redirected” into the Flemish Pass, enhancing the transport there. In contrast, the transport variability in the DWBC is mainly caused by upstream fluctuations and changes according to the rate of ULSW formation.

Interbasin exchange and interannual variability in Lake Erie's three basins are investigated with the help of a three-dimensional unstructured-grid-based Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). Experiments were carried out to investigate the influence of grid resolutions and different sources of wind forcing on the lake dynamics. Based on the calibrated model, we investigated the sensitivity of lake dynamics to major external forcing, and seasonal climatological circulation patterns are presented and compared with the observational data and existing model results. It was found that water exchange between the western basin (WB) and the central basin (CB) was mainly driven by hydraulic and density-driven flows, while density-driven flows dominate the interaction between the CB and the eastern basin (EB). River-induced hydraulic flows magnify the eastward water exchange and impede the westward one. Surface wind forcing shifts the pathway of hydraulic flows in the WB, determines the gyre pattern in the CB, contributes to thermal mixing, and magnifies interbasin water exchange during winter. Interannual variability is mainly driven by the differences in atmospheric forcing, and is most prominent in the CB.

[1] From late January to mid-February 2012 the Gulf of Trieste (North Adriatic Sea) was affected by a severe winter weather event characterized by cold air and strong northeasterly wind (Bora). The atmospheric forcing caused large surface heat fluxes which produced remarkable effects on the gulf, particularly the production of a very cold and dense water mass. Temperatures as low as 4°C were observed in the deepest part of the gulf, similar to that which was observed in winter 1929, which was probably the most severe winter in the region over more than a century. The density anomaly attained values up to 30.58 kg m−3, even greater than in 1929. Surface heat fluxes were estimated using bulk formulas and the meteorological and marine observations available at three stations. Mean daily heat losses exceeded 1000 W m−2. A comparison of this event with similar past events was made using proxy heat fluxes, available since 1978, to account for the air-sea interactions and using temperature and salinity observations, performed since 1996, to account for the effect of heat fluxes on ocean properties. The 2012 Bora episode turned out to be the most severe event of this kind in the Gulf of Trieste for at least the last 35 years and is comparable to that which occurred in 1929. A significant linear correlation was also found between the total surface heat loss and the density increase of the waters in the part of the gulf deeper than 20 m.

[1] Rectification of surface chlorophyll (Chl) concentration by the atmospheric intraseasonal variability is detected in a numerical biophysical ocean model when it is forced by composite Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events. In addition to the shoaled mixed layer depth (MLD) previously reported, it is found that increased mean Chl by MJO forcing mostly co-occurs with shoaled isothermal depth (ITD) / nutrient isopleths and reduced barrier layer thickness (BLT). Case studies reveal that MJO forcing increases MLD and ITD variations, which enhances vertical mixing and brings nutrients to the surface layer thereby increasing Chl concentration. The shoaled MLD and ITD in the seasonal / annual mean are due to asymmetric responses to MJO wind forcing; i.e., shoaling by weaker wind is more sensitive than deepening by stronger wind. Reduced mean BLT is because ITD shoaling is larger than MLD shoaling. As an exception, it is detected that both the mean Chl and BLT are increased by MJO forcing in the southern Bay of Bengal. Here, the ITD is climatologically deep in the active MJO season (boreal summer), and different phase between the MLD and ITD variations results in temporarily large BLT. However, this barrier layer does not effectively isolate the surface layer from the nutrient-rich deeper ocean. Lastly, observations support our findings in limited regions and seasons, though further investigation is necessary to confirm the effect of atmospheric intraseasonal variability on the mean surface Chl.

A coordinated study of physical, bio-optical, and sedimentary processes and acoustic transmission was conducted on the New England shelf about 110 km south of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, from September 1995 to August 1997. The experiment utilized several different observing platforms enabling measurements over space scales from centimeters in the vertical to tens of kilometers in the horizontal and timescales from minutes to the annual cycle. The present report provides information concerning previous work in the region and objectives, sampling methods, locations, and timelines for the experiment. Many of the results focus on the understanding of interrelationships and couplings among physical, bio-optical, sedimentary, and acoustical properties and processes. Two hurricanes passed near the study site, enabling novel research concerning the effects of intense atmospheric forcing.

[1] In the Kuroshio Extension System Study (KESS) east of Japan, bottom pressure observations over the 2 year study period exhibit strong high-frequency variability near 13 days. The first cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function mode for the band-pass-filtered KESS bottom pressure explains about 57% of the near 13 day variance and exhibits almost in-phase variability in space with a hint of westward propagation. The 13 day variability is strong during the winter and is driven by the large-scale wind stress curl over a broad region of the North Pacific. Modeling results over the North Pacific closely follow the observations and indicate that topography confines the barotropic response to the west of Emperor Seamount Chain and slows the westward propagation of the near 13 day bottom pressure variability.

[1] The interannual variability of potential temperature in the central Labrador Sea is studied with a suite of numerical simulations with an eddy-resolving regional ocean model and compared with available observations. The model successfully reproduces the observed variations in potential temperature at depths comprised between 150 and 2000 m over the period 1980–2009, capturing also the warming trend of the last decade and the deep water formation event in 2008. The suite of experiments allows for quantifying the contribution from the physical forcings responsible for the interannual variability of potential temperature in the region. The local atmospheric forcing drives the interannual signal by driving convection, while the incoming current system along the east coast of Greenland is responsible for about half of the warming trend (∼0.3–0.4°C) during the last decade through restratification process. The lateral transport of Irminger water in the convective region into the central Labrador Sea is further analyzed integrating a passive tracer. It is found that the overall amount of Irminger water transported in the convective region of the Labrador Sea is directly correlated with the amount of vertical convective mixing. In the last decade, following the decrease in convective activity, the model reveals a substantial decrease in concentration of Irminger Current water below 500 m in the Labrador Sea interior: by 2010 the overall amount is less than half than in the previous 20 years.

[1] Spaceborne observations of sea surface topography have revealed a significant interannual variability of the Azores Current strength and eddy energy. The objective of this paper is to establish the relationship between these variations and atmospheric forcing over the subtropical North Atlantic. Based on satellite altimetry, hydrography, and atmospheric reanalysis products, it is demonstrated that the interannual variability of the Azores Current eastward velocity and eddy energy may be driven by the adjustment of the ocean to the strength of westerly and trade winds, modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation. Surface intensification (frontogenesis), which is mainly due to the wind-driven meridional Ekman current convergence, is found significant, but not sufficient to explain the observed interannual variability of the Azores Current strength.

[1] A modeling study of iceberg drift characteristics in the Barents and Kara seas for the period 1987–2005 is presented. Maps of iceberg density and potential locations subject to grounding complement sparse existing oceanographic and aerial field survey campaigns. The model suggests preferential pathways from the most important calving sources. Icebergs originating from Franz Josef Land have the largest spread over the domain. Simulations confirm the previously observed seasonal cycle of the southernmost extent of the icebergs. Strong interannual variability of the iceberg extent with a weak decreasing trend occurs, similar to the observed sea ice extent. Analysis of the atmospheric forcing reveals that years with anomalous northerly winds enhance the southward iceberg extension. Northerly winds also have a positive delayed impact on the iceberg extent. They limit the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea and, therefore, its heat content the following year, increasing the mean age of icebergs and thus their potential extension. Finally, the model is able to reproduce the observed extreme iceberg extension southeast of the Barents Sea in May 2003.

[1] Bottom pressure records from Amsterdam and Kerguelen Islands (southern Indian Ocean) were collected between 1986 and 1989, and interpreted previously in terms of volume transport fluctuations between the islands [Vassie et al., 1994]. Since a substantial portion of the mean transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) flows between the islands, it was assumed that ACC transport variability was the predominant signal being measured, and comparisons with ACC variability at other longitudes were made. Here we examine the relationship between atmospheric forcing and observed bottom pressure variability. We find that Kerguelen bottom pressure is forced predominantly by wind stress curl over the Kerguelen Plateau for periods between around 5 days and 1 year. A weaker correlation with circumpolar eastward winds is observed, but is seen not to be causal. Amsterdam pressure shows a similar local response to curl for high frequencies (5–10 days), but at longer periods is sensitive to curl over the sub-basin between Kerguelen Plateau, the Southeast Indian Ridge, and Antarctica. This is the region of long-wavelength sea level variability observed by Chao and Fu [1995], and interpreted in terms of a geostrophic resonance by Webb and de Cuevas [2002a]. Altimetric studies confirm the usefulness of the Amsterdam location in monitoring this mode. We conclude that the Amsterdam-Kerguelen pressure difference is not a useful measure of ACC transport variability, and that previous agreement found between variability observed here and other locations is largely fortuitous. Instead, the series separately reflect different important dynamical modes in the southern Indian Ocean.