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We show the signature of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TIO) in upper tropospheric moisture and dynamical fields, roughly between 200 and 100 hPa. Relationships among these fields are examined using lag-correlation analysis and using multivariate extended empirical orthogonal functions (MEEOFs), which maximize the shared explained variance among several fields for both spatial and temporal variations. The MEEOFs show that all of the fields respond to the TIO and that the TIO is the dominant factor influencing each of the fields on these timescales. Convection associated with the TIO moistens the upper troposphere up to about 150 hPa, as expected; the behavior at 100 hPa is more complex. Over the longitude range where the TIO is associated with convection, roughly 60o-180oE, 100-hPa temperature and water vapor tend to be reduced above convection on TIO timescales. East of 180 o, though, the temperature and water vapor variations at 100 hPa become decoupled. The water vapor variations, like those of 200-hPa velocity potential, appear to speed up at about 180oE.

Air passing upward through the tropical tropopause is "marked" by an annually varying water vapor mixing ratio much as a tape recorder marks a magnetic tape; as the air ascends in the tropical stratosphere, these marks are effaced by a combination of vertical diffusion within the tropics and dilution of tropical air by sideways (isentropic) mixing-in of midlatitude air. We represent these processes using a one-dimensional advection-diffusion-dilution model, which we inverse-solve for the vertical profiles of three unknowns (vertical advection velocity, vertical diffusion coefficient, and dilution rate coefficient) after prescribing the vertical profiles of time mean methane [CH4] and of amplitude and phase of the . ,,.. a

Water vapor in the upper troposphere has a significant impact on the climate system. Difficulties in making accurate global measurements have led to uncertainty in understanding water vapor's coupling to the hydrologic cycle in the lower troposphere and its role in radiative energy balance. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite is able to retrieve water vapor concentration in the upper troposphere with good sensitivity and nearly global coverage. An analysis of these preliminary retrievals based on 3 years of observations shows the water vapor distribution to be similar to that measured by other techniques and to model results. The primary MLS water vapor measurements were made in the stratosphere, where this species acts as a conserved tracer under certain conditions. As is the case for the upper troposphere, most of the stratospheric discussion focuses on the time evolution of the zonal mean and zonally varying water vapor. Stratospheric results span a 19-month period and tropospheric results a 36-month period, both beginning in October of 1991. Comparisons with stratospheric model calculations show general agreement, with some differences in the amplitude and phase of long-term variations. At certain times and places, the evolution of water vapor distributions in the lower stratosphere suggests the presence of meridional transport.

We describe observations of tropical stratospheric water vapor q that show clear evidence of large-scale upward advection of the signal from annual fluctuations in the effective "entry mixing ratio" qE of air entering the tropical stratosphere. In other words, air is "marked," on emergence above the highest cloud tops, like a signal recorded on an upward moving magnetic tape. We define qE as the mean water vapor mixing ratio, at the tropical tropopause, of air that will subsequently rise and enter the stratospheric "overworld" at about 400 K. The observations show a systematic phase lag, increasing with altitude, between the annual cycle in qE and the annual cycle in q at higher altitudes. The observed phase lag agrees with the phase lag calculated assuming advection by the transformed Eulerian-mean vertical velocity of a qE crudely estimated from 100-hPa temperatures, which we use as a convenient proxy for tropopause temperatures. The phase agreement confirms the overall robustness of the calculation and strongly supports the tape recorder hypothesis. Establishing a quantitative link between qE and observed tropopause temperatures, however, proves difficult because the process of marking the tape depends subtly on both small- and large-scale processes. The tape speed, or large-scale upward advection speed, has a substantial annual variation and a smaller variation due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, which delays or accelerates the arrival of the signal by a month or two in the middle stratosphere. As the tape moves upward, the signal is attenuated with an e-folding time of about 7 to 9 months between 100 and 50 hPa and about 15 to 18 months between 50 and 20 hPa, constraining possible orders of magnitude both of vertica.1 diffusion Kand of ra.tes of mixing in from the extratropics. For instance, if there were no mixing in, then Kwould be in the range 0.03-0.09 ms-; this is an upper bound on Ifs.

[1] Monthly temperature and precipitation data from 41 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were compared to observations for the 20th century, with a focus on the United States Pacific Northwest (PNW) and surrounding region. A suite of statistics, or metrics, was calculated, that included correlation and variance of mean seasonal spatial patterns, amplitude of seasonal cycle, diurnal temperature range, annual- to decadal-scale variance, long-term persistence, and regional teleconnections to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Performance, or credibility, was assessed based on the GCMs' abilities to reproduce the observed metrics. GCMs were ranked in their credibility using two methods. The first simply treated all metrics equally. The second method considered two properties of the metrics: (1) redundancy of information (dependence) among metrics, and (2) confidence in the reliability of an individual metric for accurately ranking models. Confidence was related to how robust the estimate of the metric was to ensemble size, given that for most of the models only a small number of ensemble members (i.e., realizations of the 20th century) were available. A cursory comparison with 24 CMIP3 models revealed few differences between the two generations of models with respect to the statistics analyzed.

[1] Given its large population, vigorous and water-intensive agricultural industry, and important ecological resources, the western United States presents a valuable case study for examining potential near-term changes in regional hydroclimate. Using a high-resolution, hierarchical, five-member ensemble modeling experiment that includes a global climate model (Community Climate System Model), a regional climate model (RegCM), and a hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity model), we find that increases in greenhouse forcing over the next three decades result in an acceleration of decreases in spring snowpack and a transition to a substantially more liquid-dominated water resources regime. These hydroclimatic changes are associated with increases in cold-season days above freezing and decreases in the cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio. The changes in the temperature and precipitation regime in turn result in shifts toward earlier snowmelt, base flow, and runoff dates throughout the region, as well as reduced annual and warm-season snowmelt and runoff. The simulated hydrologic response is dominated by changes in temperature, with the ensemble members exhibiting varying trends in cold-season precipitation over the next three decades but consistent negative trends in cold-season freeze days, cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio, and 1 April snow water equivalent. Given the observed impacts of recent trends in snowpack and snowmelt runoff, the projected acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S. has important implications for the availability of water for agriculture, hydropower, and human consumption, as well as for the risk of wildfire, forest die-off, and loss of riparian habitat.

[1] Connections, sometimes tenuous, have previously been noted between stratospheric Kelvin waves and several stratospheric trace constituents. The present study finds evidence of Kelvin wave signatures in ozone from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) instruments aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. Predominant variations near 10 days are associated with a Kelvin wave mode previously identified in MLS temperature. Variations in CLAES nitrous oxide also show some evidence of influence by this Kelvin mode. The results presented here show that the observing characteristics of the instrument can influence the derived structure and properties of Kelvin waves.