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Correlations of 1° by 1° seasonal rainfall with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) reveal spatially distinct teleconnections between El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall over the full monsoon season, as well as three subseasons. Over the full season (June–September), Pacific SSTs correlate with rainfall in Western India more than that in Eastern India. This spatial signature shifts as the monsoon progresses through early (June), middle or peak (July–August), and late (September) subseasons. Specifically, a 1°C cooling of the central equatorial Pacific (i.e., La Nina conditions) can result in the following: ∼70–100% increase in precipitation in north central Indian and the Indo-Gangetic Plains during the early season, ∼30–80% increase peak season precipitation in south central India and northwestern Rajasthan, and ∼60–100% increase in late season precipitation in northern, northwestern, and central India. Furthermore, the spatial signatures between La Nina and El Nino are asymmetric in that for a particular location, the enhancement and suppression of rainfall associated with La Nina and El Nino conditions, respectively, are not equal. El Nino suppresses peak season rainfall in the south central and northwestern Rajasthan regions more than La Nina enhances it, but the opposite occurs during the late season in northern, northwestern, and central India. Additionally, the correspondence of minima (maxima) in anomalies of velocity potential aloft with maxima (minima) at 925 mb and with positive (negative) surface pressure anomalies suggests that anomalous subsidence (ascent) occurs in July–September during El Nino (La Nina) times. In the early season, however, patterns of velocity potential composites suggest a region of descent (ascent) over the western equatorial Indian Ocean, along with a region of ascent (descent) over the Indian subcontinent that exists only during the early season but not during the peak or late season. These patterns are consistent with the hypothesis that local Hadley cell circulation affects pressure and thus rainfall during the early season but that a larger-scale mechanism, such as eastward or westward shifts in the Walker circulation, may be more responsible for teleconnections seen throughout the remainder of the season. These findings indicate that focusing monsoon forecasting efforts on these regions and on subseasonal periods while incorporating ENSO asymmetries will yield useful and skillful regional forecasts, compared to the declining utility and skill of all-India summer monsoon rainfall.

We examine the characteristics of 3 day total extreme precipitation in the western United States. Coherent seasonal spatial patterns of timing and magnitude are evident in the data, motivating a seasonally based analysis. Using a clustering method that is consistent with extreme value theory, we identify coherent regions for extremes that vary seasonally. Based on storm back trajectory analysis, we demonstrate unique moisture sources and dominant moisture pathways for each spatial region. In the winter the Pacific Ocean is the dominant moisture source across the west, but in other seasons the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf of California, and the land surface over the midwestern U.S. play an important role. We find the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to not have a strong impact on dominant moisture delivery pathways or moisture sources. The frequency of extremes under ENSO is spatially coherent and seasonally dependent with certain regions tending to have more (less) frequent extreme events in El Nino (La Nina) conditions.

[1] Despite recent challenges, conventional wisdom has held that heating over the Tibetan Plateau leads to increased Indian summer monsoon rainfall via enhancement of cross-equatorial circulation aloft, and a concurrent strengthening of both the Somali Jet and westerly winds that bring moisture to southern India. We show that such heating, quantified by monthly estimates of moist static energy in the atmosphere just above the surface, correlates with summer monsoon rainfall, but only in the early (20 May to 15 June) and late (September 1 to 15 October) monsoon season. Correlations during the main monsoon season (15 June to 31 August) are small and insignificant. The positive correlations with early and late monsoon season, however, allow for heating over Tibet to modulate as much as ~30% of the total rainfall. Furthermore, we demonstrate that heating over Tibet is independent of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, so that together they explain a substantial portion of variability in the early and late season rainfall, providing potential predictability. These links may also explain the wet conditions over India during early Holocene time and provide a quantitative link between a rise of Tibet and stronger Somali Jet.