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A stochastic framework for coordination of macroeconomic policies is introduced in this paper. It is suggested that: (i) measures of policy accountability should allow for the climate of uncertainty that surrounds policy decisions, and (ii) most models of aggregate economic activity impose arbitrary specifications of uncertainty that do not appear to be empirically justifiable. Ambiguities in interpreting the Humphrey-Hawkins reports of policy authorities are sketched in section II; a proposal for maximizing the ex ante prospects of policy objectives is illustrated in section III; finally, nonstationary allocations of uncertainty are discussed in sections IV and V. This paper provides a brief survey of ongoing work by members of the Federal Reserve Board staff on the role of uncertainty in policy forecasts. It suggests that policy discussion could be improved by more explicit consideration of the allocation of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments on a paper published within the issue, "Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown," by Peter Clark. The author also discusses results from his own research in "Accounting for United States Economic Growth, 1929-1969," and applies it to Clark's paper. It is suggested that an abrupt rise in energy prices may have affected growth rates during the mid-1970s. The author also looks at a similar analysis made by John Kendrick, who focuses on the U.S. postwar period of 1948-1966.

The article comments on three papers within the issue: "Long-Term Effects of Government Deficits on the U.S. Output Potential," by George von Furstenburg, "Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown," by Peter Clark, and "U.S. Productivity Growth Recession: History and Prospects for the Future," by Michael McCarthy. The author discusses each article and criticizes their shortcomings. He looks at von Furstenburg's use of the Phelps-Shell model of dynamic economic growth and notes the usefulness of neoclassical growth theory. The author feels that his discussion on the effects of government deficits on output growth or productivity represent a fruitful economic analysis innovation.

The author comments on the article "Commercial Banking in the Sixties," by Paul S. Nadler. The article centers on the over-all growth of the commercial banking system in the 1960s as compared with growth in the gross national product (GNP). According to Nadler, that commercial banking deposits will not grow as fast as GNP, which results in the conclusion that other financial institutions will necessarily grow more rapidly than commercial banks. The author explains that he agrees with Nadler's findings.

The purpose of the paper was to provide an objective and systematic appraisal of the capacity of black-owned commercial banks to finance economic development in the black community. This appeared to be a vital task at the time since these institutions were being formed at an accelerated rate with that specific aim in mind. On the basis of the evidence analyzed (virtually all of which was newly generated information available only through Federal bank supervisory agencies), I concluded that black banks were not viable instruments of economic development. However, I also concluded that they could perform some minor services of benefit to their local areas, and they could serve as symbols of black achievement. As an alternative source of financing, I proposed a domestic version of the existing Edge Corporations. These are subsidiaries of U.S. commercial banks formed for the purpose of conducting foreign financial activities. Among the latter, they can have varying amounts of equity investments in non-financial enterprises abroad. It was this feature which I thought offered promise as a means of expanding the availability of risk-bearing funds in black communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a simple dynamic asset pricing model, this paper investigates the relationship between the precision of public information about economic growth and stock market returns. After fully characterizing expected returns and conditional volatility, I show that (i) higher precision of signals tends to increase the risk premium, (ii) when signals are imprecise the equity premium is bounded above independently of investors' risk aversion, (iii) return volatility is U-shaped with respect to investors' risk aversion, and (iv) the relationship between conditional expected returns and conditional variance is ambiguous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By demonstrating the superiority of the present-value to the recoupment-period criterion, Peter Lindert [2] has made a major contribution to the analysis of foreign investment controls. In fact, after reading Lindert's analysis, one wonders how the recoupment-period criterion got a foothold in the first place' the assessment of the net impact of a control program is clearly dependent on a comparison of capital inflows and outflows occurring at different points in time; and the accepted and traditional way to make such intertemporal comparisons is by a present value calculation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the tempo of this movement and the enormously important economic development role which the black banks are expected to undertake, it appears vital that an objective and systematic appraisal be made of the capacity of these institutions to perform this task. This paper is devoted to such an assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a financial framework for economic growth in the United States. The article presents a unified financial counterpart to a long-term economic projection. Based on assumptions of varying rates of growth, a set of projections of economic activity in 1970 is presented. A "judgment" model will be selected based on the results of the projections. The article then introduces a theoretical framework that links levels of economic and financial activity. By using the "judgment" model as a reference, the pattern of relationships will be applied to a projection of assets and liabilities for the individual components of the financial network.

The article presents commentary on the address "Long-Term Trends in the Financing of Regulated Industries, 1870-1950," by Melville J. Ulmer, "Trends in Capital Formation and Financing in Agriculture," by Alvin S. Tostlebee, and Sergei Dobrovolsky's "Capital Formation and Financing Trends in Manufacturing and Mining, 1900-1953," all included within the issue addressing the development of the U.S. capital market. The application of the historical data to the development of other countries is discussed, outlining implications of U.S. economic history on general financial theory.

The financing of R&D provides a potentially important channel to link finance and economic growth, but there is no direct evidence that financial effects are large enough to impact aggregate R&D. U.S. firms finance R&D from volatile sources: cash flow and stock issues. We estimate dynamic R&D models for high-tech firms and find significant effects of cash flow and external equity for young, but not mature, firms. The financial coefficients for young firms are large enough that finance supply shifts can explain most of the dramatic 1990s R&D boom, which implies a significant connection between finance, innovation, and growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the policy acceptance in the U.S. of reliance on automatic fiscal stabilizers. The author provides a history of previous fiscal stabilizer studies. The author states that it is necessary to illustrate the potential incompatibility of an annually balanced budget that has economic stability. The article also discusses institutional changes which made automatic fiscal stabilizers more important and the acceptance of automatic fiscal stabilizers as part of government policy. An analysis of how the U.S. executive and legislative branch is involved is also provided.

This article focuses on investment prospects in the U.S. The article is the result of early research conducted by the Committee for Economic Development, but not a product of that body. The author discusses the immediate prospect of high employment and successful investment, then addresses concerns that the form of financing of investment may lead to depression and unemployment, and finally, addresses possible forms of investment financing that will successfully avoid depression and stagnation. The author presents strategies that will facilitate the flow of cash into equity as opposed to debt, including fiscal policy recommendations relative to tax structure and state and local regulations.