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Purpose: To determine whether scapular morphology could predict isolated supraspinatus tendon tear propagation after exercise therapy. We hypothesised that a larger critical shoulder angle (CSA) and type III acromial morphology predict a positive change in tear size., Methods: Fifty-nine individuals aged 40-70 years with isolated symptomatic high-grade partial or full-thickness supraspinatus tendon tears were included. Individuals participated in a structured, individualised 12-week exercise therapy programme and underwent ultrasound to measure tear size at baseline and 12 months following therapy. Computed tomography images were segmented to create three-dimensional subject-specific bone models and reviewed by three trained clinicians to measure CSA and to determine acromion morphology based on the Bigliani classification. A binary logistic regression was performed to determine the predictive value of CSA and acromion morphology on tear propagation., Results: The CSA was 30.0 ± 5.4°. Thirty-one individuals (52.5%) had type II acromial morphology, followed by type III and type I morphologies (25.4% and 22.0%, respectively); 81.4% experienced no change in tear size, four (6.8%) individuals experienced tear propagation and seven (11.9%) individuals had a negative change in tear size. No significant difference in tear propagation rates based on CSA or acromion morphology (not significant [NS]) was observed. The model predicted tear size status in 81.4% of cases but only predicted tear propagation 8.3% of the time. Overall, CSA and acromion morphology only predicted 24.3% ( R 2  = 0.243) of variance in tear propagation (NS)., Conclusions: CSA and acromion morphology were NS predictors of tear propagation of the supraspinatus tendon 12 months following an individualised exercise therapy programme., Level of Evidence: II., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2024 The Author(s). Journal of Experimental Orthopaedics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Sports Traumatology, Knee Surgery and Arthroscopy.)