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The persistence of non-neutral trait polymorphism is enigmatic because stabilizing selection is expected to deplete variation. In cryptically coloured prey, negative frequency-dependent selection due to search image formation by predators has been proposed to favour rare variants, promoting polymorphism. However, in a heterogeneous environment, locally varying disruptive selection favours patch type-specific optima, resulting in spatial segregation of colour variants. Here, we address whether negative frequency-dependent selection can overcome selection posed by habitat heterogeneity to promote local polymorphism using an individual-based model. In addition, we compare how prey and predator mobility may modify the outcome. Our model revealed that frequency-dependent predation could strongly promote local prey polymorphism, but only when differences between morphs in patch-specific fitness were small. The effect of frequency-dependent predation depended on the predator adjustment of search image and was hampered by the prey population structure. Gene flow due to prey movement counteracted local selection, promoted local polymorphism to some extent, and relaxed the conditions for polymorphism due to frequency-dependent predation. Importantly, abrupt spatial changes in morph frequencies decreased the probability that mobile frequency-dependent predators could maintain local prey polymorphism. Overall, our study suggests that in a spatially heterogeneous environment, negative frequency-dependent selection may help maintain local polymorphism but only under a limited range of conditions., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Evolutionary Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Phenotypic plasticity in heterogeneous environments can provide tight environment-phenotype matching. However, the prerequisite is a reliable environmental cue(s) that enables organisms to use current environmental information to induce the development of a phenotype with high fitness in a forthcoming environment. Here, we quantify predictability in the timing of precipitation and temperature change to examine how this is associated with seasonal polyphenism in tropical Mycalesina butterflies. Seasonal precipitation in the tropics typically results in distinct selective environments, the wet and dry seasons, and changes in temperature can be a major environmental cue. We sampled communities of Mycalesina butterflies from two seasonal locations and one aseasonal location. Quantifying environmental predictability using wavelet analysis and Colwell's indices confirmed a strong periodicity of precipitation over a 12-month period at both seasonal locations compared to the aseasonal one. However, temperature seasonality and periodicity differed between the two seasonal locations. We further show that: (a) most females from both seasonal locations synchronize their reproduction with the seasons by breeding in the wet season but arresting reproduction in the dry season. In contrast, all species breed throughout the year in the aseasonal location and (b) species from the seasonal locations, but not those from the aseasonal location, exhibited polyphenism in wing pattern traits (eyespot size). We conclude that seasonal precipitation and its predictability are primary factors shaping the evolution of polyphenism in Mycalesina butterflies, and populations or species secondarily evolve local adaptations for cue use that depend on the local variation in the environment., (© 2021 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society for Evolutionary Biology.)

Understanding the functions of animal coloration has been a long-standing question in evolutionary biology. For example, the widespread occurrence of striking longitudinal stripes and colourful tails in lizards begs for an explanation. Experiments have suggested that colourful tails can deflect attacks towards the tail (the 'deflection' hypothesis), which is sacrificable in most lizards, thereby increasing the chance of escape. Studies also suggest that in moving lizards, longitudinal body stripes can redirect predators' strikes towards the tail through the 'motion dazzle' effect. Despite these experimental studies, the ecological factors associated with the evolution of such striking colorations remain unexplored. Here, we investigated whether predictions from motion dazzle and attack deflection could explain the widespread occurrence of these striking marks using comparative methods and information on eco-physiological variables (caudal autotomy, diel activity, microhabitat and body temperature) potentially linked to their functioning. We found both longitudinal stripes and colourful tails are associated with diurnal activity and with the ability to lose the tail. Compared to stripeless species, striped species are more likely to be ground-dwelling and have higher body temperature, emphasizing the connection of stripes to mobility and rapid escape strategy. Colourful tails and stripes have evolved multiple times in a correlated fashion, suggesting that their functions may be linked. Overall, our results together with previous experimental studies support the notion that stripes and colourful tails in lizards may have protective functions based on deflective and motion dazzle effects., (© 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.)