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Farmer participation in wetlands restoration practices is explained using land benefits, land attributes, and owner attributes. The probability of participation is estimated using county-level data, and used to calculate the expected acreage restored. National restored wetlands reserves are simulated by sorting counties on government cost and enrolling acreage into the reserve until the acreage target is reached. Total government cost for a million-acre reserve ranges from $1736 million to $1869 million, depending on the administrative strategy used. Using estimated participation rates in place of hypothetical rates suggests that achieving acreage targets may be more expensive than previously thought.

When land users make dynamic land conversion decisions to maximize profits, persistent dedication of marginal land to agricultural uses can be explained as a consequence of risk aversion and expected capital gains. Land conversion increases in response to cost-sharing, rental payments, and technical assistance that reduces uncertainty about land benefits. When correlation between benefits is nonpositive, risk aversion leads the land user to diversify land among uses. Unless subsidy payments outweigh the sum of risk and capital gains costs, payments which appear potentially successful may fail. When payments succeed, the cost of accomplishing acreage targets may be higher than anticipated.

This paper challenges common assumptions about convexity in forest rotation models which optimize timber plus nontimber benefits. If a local optimum occurs earlier than the globally optimal age, policy based on marginal incentives may achieve suboptimal results. Policy-relevant nonconvexities are more likely if (i) nontimber benefits dominate for young stands while the optimal age depends primarily on timber benefits, or (ii) nontimber benefits dominate for mature stands and also determine the optimal age. Nonconvexities may create either temporary or persistent difficulties. Policymakers may improve efficiency by exploiting the relationship between the timber-only optimum and the global optimum.