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PurposeCorn, which has the highest domestic production, planting area and consumption, is the top cereal in relation to demand and supply in China. However, the comparative advantage of China in corn has continuously deteriorated in recent years and based on the recent situation and possible supply and demand trends, it is widely accepted that a corn self-sufficiency rate of 95% is difficult to achieve. Under current import-restriction policies, corn may stand at the crossroads of reforms to solve its predicted insufficient supply. In this study, the authors analyse the necessity of relaxing trade restrictions on corn in China and explore the effects of trade restrictions by reducing tariffs and expanding tariff-rate quotas on corn and related industries and the welfare change caused by possible relaxations.Design/methodology/approachThe authors construct a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and design nine scenarios for the analysis.FindingsThe results show that relaxations of import restrictions are probable methods to meet the aim of sufficient corn supply during shortages. They are simulated to reduce corn's domestic production and price, increase import and import prices and lead to a decline in self-sufficiency but benefit the production of corn-related industries of corn. The results also imply that expanding the quota is a better method for releasing trade restrictions in China.Originality/valueThe comparative advantage of China in corn deteriorated with an increase in prices. Based on the current situation and possible trends of supply and demand, the referenced goal of achieving 95% corn self-sufficiency appears difficult, implying that reliance on imports is probably imminent and vital. This study provides simulation results in future scenarios and offers policy implications for China's corn trade policies.

PurposeThis study investigates the effect of multilateral trade liberalization on services export diversification with a view to complementing the recently published work on the effect of multilateral trade liberalization on export product diversification.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical exercise been performed using a panel dataset of 133 countries over the period 1995–2014.FindingsThe findings show that multilateral trade liberalization is associated with greater services export diversification in both developed and developing countries alike. This is particularly the case in countries with a high reliance on manufactured goods exports or those that enjoy greater export product diversification. Interestingly, multilateral trade liberalization enhances services export diversification in countries that experience higher foreign direct investment inflows.Research limitations/implicationsThese findings highlight the importance of multilateral trade liberalization for services export diversification. The study has considered explicitly supply-side factors that could affect services export diversification. This is because the indicator of multilateral trade liberalization is highly correlated with some demand-side factors, such as the world demand for services exports. Therefore, another avenue for future research could involve looking at the demand side factors that could influence services export diversification, and whether the degree of multilateral trade liberalization matters for the influence of these demand factors on services export diversification.Practical implicationsThe current study through its positive effect on both export product diversification and services export diversification, greater cooperation among World Trade Organization (WTO) Members on trade matters could help revive economic growth, particularly in the current COVID-19 pandemic that has significantly plummeted it.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this is first study that has investigated this issue.

PurposeInternational tourism and FDI inflows have generated detectable beneficial impacts on the economy of Estonia in the last decades. However, recently, poor international market conditions mostly caused by the trade war and COVID-19 pandemic have been a potential threat to these two factors. Besides, the poor performance of investments in recent years is behind the stagnation of productivity in Estonia. This study examines the dynamics of the effects of these factors on the rate of economic growth in Estonia and provides policy implications in line with sustained recovery.Design/methodology/approachA nonlinear ARDL technique is employed in this study to investigate the long-run effects of FDI and the degree of tourism specialization on economic growth rate.FindingsOur findings indicate that the economic growth rate of Estonia in the long run has been positively affected by both the rate of FDI inflows and international tourism.Originality/valueThis is the first study that employs a non-linear approach to investigate the dynamics of long-run effects of FDI and tourism specialization on the rate of economic growth in Estonia and provides policy implications in line with optimal growth strategy considering the economic structure, the current level of productivity and available potentials in this economy.

PurposeThis paper aims at assessing the impact of institutional and cultural distances and trade barriers on ASEAN's trade efficiency using a panel data set of 65 countries for the period 2006–2017.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors applied an improved version of the stochastic frontier model to estimate the trade efficiency scores. After that, we used the system generalized method of moment (GMM) estimator to investigate the impacts of institutional and cultural distances on ASEAN's trade efficiency.FindingsThe results show that the trade efficiency of ASEAN countries with the rest of the world (ROW) is moderate, ranging from 0.561 to 0.612, but shows a downward trend. This result indicates that considerable trade potential exists between ASEAN countries and ROW. Institutional and cultural distances, as well as the trade barriers, negatively affect ASEAN's trade efficiency. Efforts to reduce differences in institutions and cultures and to promote trade liberalization are vital remedies for ASEAN countries to turn potentials into actual trade performance.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature in three different ways. First, this is the first study on the impact of the differences between internal and external characteristics on trade efficiency, specifically, the impact of institutional and cultural distances on ASEAN's trade efficiency. Second, to obtain accurate efficiency scores, the authors use an improved version of the stochastic frontier model proposed by Karakaplan (2018), which can control the problem of endogeneity. Third, in quantifying the determinants of trade efficiency, the authors apply a system GMM estimator, which allows us to overcome the problems of endogeneity, measurement errors, and omitted variables.

PurposeThe author studies the role of safe assets accumulation in shaping the pattern of international capital flows.Design/methodology/approachThe author combines a theoretical model and the empirical analysis. The model is a two-country open economy, while the evidence is based on a fixed-effect regression on a panel of 19 countries of the eurozone.FindingsIn an open two-country economy, a positive productivity shock raises both mean and variance of wealth accumulation rate, then, leading to a greater holding of safe assets for risk-sharing motivation. Upon financial integration, the shock can induce the outflows of net total capital. The evidence of 19 eurozone countries confirms the theory and also uncovers that the safe assets (bonds) are the dominant driver of cross-border capital flows within the eurozone.Research limitations/implicationsThe model can be extended to account for the impact of safe assets on the economic growth, then, analyzes the role of safe assets within financial globalization. Taking into account the impact of safe assets on the open-economy economic growth can be the next step to approach the issue.Practical implicationsThe paper also provides important policy implication. Since a higher productivity level can raise the outflows of net total capital through the accumulation of foreign safe assets, an economy needs to increase its supply of safe asset along with upgrading its domestic productivity level. This combination is important for the long-run capital accumulation and economic growth of an economy with an increasing path of the productivity level.Originality/valueThe paper seeks a balance between theory and evidence on international capital flows. Moreover, the paper bridges the gap between the literature on international capital flows and the literature on safe assets. And the paper also focuses on the economies of the eurozone.

PurposeInfrastructure deficiency in Southeast Asian countries is ever growing and touched to a level where it harms the local economy as well as the international sector of the country. The gap between demand and supply for infrastructure is constantly on the upswing. The purpose of this study to investigate the effect of infrastructure on exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow in selected Southeast Asian economies.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs the pooled mean group (PMG) technique to velaborate that how the infrastructure affects export and FDI in the short run and long run during 1990–2018. For cointegration, Pedroni and Kao tests are used. Dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and the fully modified least squares (FMOLSs) estimators are employed for robustness check.FindingsThe findings support that aggregate and sub-indices of infrastructure significantly promote the export and FDI inflow in the long run. Also infrastructure, export and FDI inflow are cointegrated in the long run. FMOLS and DOLS found the most robust results.Originality/valueInfrastructure development in determining trade and FDI has established a significant deal of attention in the modern era where a plethora of research studies encourage the opinion that better infrastructure attracts FDI and enhances export. However, this study uses a global infrastructure index, which comprises the sub-indices like transport, telecommunication, energy and financial sector, which gives us a clear picture regarding how Southeast Asia can catch up FDI and export benefits through infrastructure.

PurposeThis paper measures the impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI), globalisation and political governance on economic growth in West Africa. The empirical analysis also includes the interaction effect of political governance and FDI on the growth of the sub-region, over the period of 1996–2016.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs the autoregressive distributed lag technique on data obtained from the World Bank and the KOF institute.FindingsThe study findings suggest a positive relationship between globalisation and political governance on economic growth. Even though there have been inconclusive results on the FDI–growth nexus, the authors found that FDI stimulates the growth of the sub-region, while political governance enhances the positive impact of FDI on economic growth. The other factors of growth included are labour, capital and government size, whose effects on growth are, respectively, negative, negative and positive.Practical implicationsThe governments of the West African countries promote policies that attract FDI into the sub-region, so that economic performances may be enhanced. In addition, the governments of the West African sub-region should work to reap the benefits of globalisation, by promoting the competitiveness of their local economies in order to keep pace with the global markets. Finally, the political-governance infrastructures should be overhauled; the culture of accountability and transparency should be promoted, while all efforts should be made to improve stability in the political environment in order to increase investors' confidence in the West African economy.Originality/valueThis study is the first to single out the impacts of political governance, as categorised by the World Bank, through both direct and interactive measures. This is necessary in view of the assertion that political governance largely accounts for improved economic performance in an economy. The use of the Pesaran (2007) technique of unit root is also a deviation from existing studies. This is in view of the fact that it tests variable unit root in the presence of cross-sectional dependence; thus, controlling for contemporaneous correlation which was not considered in the first-generation tests.

PurposeIn this paper, the authors develop and estimate a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an enriched micro-founded specification to account for foreign remittances, an important source that helps bridge the trade gap in many developing and emerging market economies.Design/methodology/approachAlthough the authors’ specification provides a general frame for the analysis of the role of workers' remittances, they motivate and calibrate the model with specific focus on Pakistan, where most of the trade deficit is met through the remittance channel.FindingsThe results indicate that a negative shock to workers' remittances hampers real growth via decreased consumption and imported investment goods, while it builds pressure on exchange rate and hence worsens current account balance. These results indicate that too much dependence on workers' remittances to help meet foreign exchange deficits may potentially leave the economy in doldrums in case sizable negative shocks occur to the flow of foreign remittances.Originality/valueThe authors develop and estimate a small open economy DSGE model with an enriched micro-founded specification to account for foreign remittances, an important source that helps bridge the trade gap in many developing and emerging market economies.

PurposePakistan suffered with the menace of terrorism for long and become a front line state in the “War on Terror”. Terrorism shattered Pakistan economy and rendered her external sector vulnerable to instability and uncertainties.Design/methodology/approachTherefore, using system generalized method of moment (GMM), this paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on exports, imports and trade deficit in the face of unabated terrorism in Pakistan.FindingsThe findings of the paper suggest that as terrorism in Pakistan increased, FDI contribution to Pakistan exports decreased while FDI contribution to Pakistan imports significantly increased. Terrorism also disrupted the chain of local production and increased Pakistan reliance on imports. Thus terrorism widened Pakistan trade deficit of Pakistan and expose Pakistan to external imbalances.Originality/valueDespite rise in organized acts of terrorism and its adverse impact on various departments of economy, hardly any study bothers to check its impact on trade and investment nexus. This is the first study of its nature that looks deep down to understand how terrorism affects the relation of major economic variables.

PurposeThe main purpose of this paper is to analyse the different factors affecting Sino-African trade based on the gravity model, and propose some solutions to improve the problems.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is based on an extended gravity model, including trade agreement and recession as explanatory variables. The impacts of trade agreement and economic recession on Sino-African imports and exports are examined.FindingsThe results show that the product of GDP affects African exports to China significantly and negatively, and affects African imports from China positively. Real exchange rate affects African exports to China positively, and affects African imports from China negatively. Population affect African exports to China significantly and positively, and affect African imports from China positively. Recession have negative effects on both African imports from China and exports to China but is only significant for imports. Agreement affects African imports from China and exports to China positively. Our findings confirm the impact of economic recession, and imply that the structure of African product exported to China should be improved, and trade agreements should be reinforced.Originality/valueThis paper contributes and extends the literature on Sino-African trade by improving the traditional gravity model to include the impact of all trade agreements, and their aggregating effects on trade. The paper also seeks to assess the trade impact of economic recession through a dynamic gravity model approach for which there has been no research done to our knowledge. In this regard, it provides new understanding of the trade pattern between China and Africa, and ways in improving the Sino-African bilateral trade.

PurposeIn an attempt to reduce tax distortions and increase economic efficiency, in 2002 and 2003 Brazil promoted changes in the PIS/COFINS tax, the main federal tax on consumption. Thus, in addition to the old cumulative regime calculated on company revenues, the noncumulative regime was created with higher rates and the added value as a tax basis.Design/methodology/approachThis paper analyzes the effects of the PIS/COFINS reform in a context of deindustrialization in the Brazilian economy, using a neoclassical model with two sectors.FindingsThe results suggest that after a small improvement in the aggregate economy in the short term, in the long term there was a worsening of the macroeconomic indicators. From the sector perspective, the PIS/COFINS reform may have contributed to the loss of industry participation in the Brazilian economy.Originality/valueThe study of the impact of the PIS/COFINS reform on industry through a neoclassical model is unprecedented in the national literature and contributes to the investigation of changes in the tax regime that occurred in the country.

PurposeThis paper analyzes the effects of the expiration of the Multi Fiber Arrangement (MFA), which ended quota restrictions on US textile and apparel imports in 2005, on the sourcing of US apparel. We test if the realignment in trade following the phase out of quotas can be explained by comparative advantage and market size.Design/methodology/approachWe use a gravity framework to investigate the role of comparative advantage (labor costs) and other factors such as exporter size, PTAs and tariff reductions on the pattern of US apparel imports. Detailed data on quotas by country-product pair are used for the purpose.FindingsOur empirical results show a significant increase in imports from large quota constrained countries once the MFA ended. Moreover, the pattern of trade seems to favor low wage countries that have a comparative advantage in producing apparel, which is highly labor intensive.Originality/valueThe end of quotas removed a major distorting factor in US apparel trade. This study examines the role of trade theory in the changing pattern of apparel imports that followed the end of the MFA. We use a gravity framework to test the theory of comparative advantage and the role of exporter size. Previous studies on the end of the MFA and its effects, do not examine the causal factors behind the realignment of US apparel trade.

PurposeThis study aims to (1) identify the agricultural competitiveness of ASEAN countries in the global markets; (2) analyze the dynamics of these indicators for the period 1997–2015; and (3) test the consistency between trade indices.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses RCA, RTA, and NRCA for the first objective; OLS method and Markov matrix for the second objective; and statistic tool for the final purpose.FindingsThe results show that: (1) ASEAN countries achieve the strongest competitiveness in rice, rubber, spices, vegetable fat and oils, wood, fuel wood, fish, and crustacean. Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia are the strongest competitive whilst Brunei, Singapore, and Cambodia are the weakest competitive; (2) They have convergent patterns in agricultural competitiveness; (3) They successfully maintain rankings of the strong competitive sectors; and (4) ASEAN countries obtain benefits from the regional integration and the specialization in competitive products.Research limitations/implicationsASEAN countries with strong competitiveness should specialize in and maintain their rankings to enhance competitiveness and maximize social welfare while the countries with weak agricultural competitiveness should specialize in the processed products and services based on their advantages of economic resources.Originality/valueComprehensive results of the static and dynamic agricultural competitiveness of ASEAN countries as a whole are provided. The findings and policy recommendations can be used by policymakers and enterprises to improve competitiveness and benefit. The discussions and findings should be a significant reference for economists.

PurposeThis study investigates empirically the impact of export product concentration (or diversification) on social protection expenditure in both developed and developing countries. The analysis further explores whether this effect depends on countries' degree of openness to international trade.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis has relied on an unbalanced panel data set comprising 112 countries over the period 1980–2010 and used the two-step system generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimator as the econometric approach.FindingsThe empirical analysis conveys two messages. First, low-income countries experience a positive effect of export product concentration on social protection expenditure, while for relatively advanced economies, export product diversification positively influences social protection expenditure. Second, countries that further open up their economies to international trade experience a positive effect of export product diversification on social protection expenditure, with the magnitude of this impact increasing as the degree of openness rises.Research limitations/implicationsThese findings highlight the relevance of export product diversification for social protection expenditure in both developed and developing countries, notably in the context of greater trade openness.Practical implicationsThe diversification of export products is one means for developed and developing countries alike to increase the scope for social protection expenditure.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this topic had not been addressed.

Purpose In the context of debate on competitive devaluation and trade imbalances, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of exchange rate misalignment as a determinant of trade imbalances in selected major trade surplus (Germany, China, Japan, Russia and KSA) and major trade deficit countries (USA, UK, France, India and Turkey). Design/methodology/approach The authors used a structural vector auto-regressive model on data from ten countries with the highest trade deficit and surplus. The period of analysis is from 2000 Q1 to 2016 Q1. Findings The key findings suggest that although exchange rate misalignment from equilibrium may have some implications for the current account balance for surplus and deficit countries, the effects observed were rather very mild and transitory. There was a heterogeneity in the response of the current account position to exchange rate misalignment in each country, concomitantly; the exchange rate misalignment shall not be seen as the sole responsible factor in the debate on global trade imbalances. Research limitations/implications The research has profound implications in terms of exploring the notion of competitive devaluation and exchange rate misalignment as a cause of major global trade imbalances. Practical implications This study has important practical implications for the trade policy of major economies in the world. These are twofold. First, this study has analysed and reported on the degree of misalignment of exchange from its equilibrium values in the major trade surplus and deficit countries. Second, it has investigated the implications of any misalignment for the trade balance or respective economies. Social implications There are important social implications as the notion of competitive devaluation and exchange rate–trade balance nexus has been heavily politicised. This study provides an empirical insight and an answer to these claims which have social and political implications. Originality/value There is a significant element of originality and contribution to the existing body of knowledge on the subject. In the context of debate on competitive devaluation this is the first study which has investigated whether the exchange rate has been misaligned from its equilibrium values (competitive devaluation) and whether there is some nexus between the real exchange rate misalignment and trade imbalances in under-analysis economies.

Purpose Economic freedom is the fundamental right of every person in a free society to control his/her own labor and property without government intervention beyond what is necessary to protect and maintain freedom itself. The purpose of this paper is to examine the association between economic freedom, inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade flows. Design/methodology/approach The authors test a moderated mediation model of the effects of economic freedom on trade flows with the objective of exploring the mediation effects of FDI and the moderating effects of government stability. Findings Based on a sample of 155 countries from different geographical areas, the study shows that economic freedom is associated with inward FDI, which, in turn, predicted trade flows. Furthermore, government stability moderated the relationship between economic freedom and FDI. Originality/value This study goes beyond the traditional focus on the macro determinants of trade flows and explores the link between economic freedom and trade flows, and the roles of inward FDI and political stability in the context of this relationship. It also provides a novel methodological approach to examine this relationship.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate both linear and/or nonlinear effects of inflation on income inequality and to test the Kuznets hypothesis using panel data of 24 developed countries (DCs) and 66 developing countries (LDCs) observed over the period of 1990–2014. Design/methodology/approach This paper explores the short- and long-run Granger causality relationship between inflation and income inequality using the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) procedure and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The existence of a nonlinear relationship between inflation and income inequality is confirmed implying as inflation rises income inequality decreases. Income inequality then reaches a minimum and then starts rising again. The findings of this paper show the existence of Kuznets “U-shaped” hypothesis between income inequality and real GDP per capita in DCs group, and the existence of Kuznets’ inverted “U-shaped” hypothesis for LDCs group. Findings The results indicate that there is no bi-directional Granger causality between inflation and income inequality in the short-run, but, there is bi-directional Granger causality in the long-run for both the DCs and LDCs group. The results help us to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy in reducing income inequality in both the DCs and LDCs group. As a policy implication, monetary policy is often aimed at controlling the annual rate of inflation in the long-run with a short-run focus on reducing output gaps and creating employment. However, managing inflation may have implications for income inequality. Originality/value This is original research paper which analyzes the “U-shaped” and inverted “U-shaped” paths of income inequality and real GDP per capita for large sample of two group countries including developed and developing countries, respectively. Also, this paper analyzes the nonlinear relationship between inflation and income inequality in two groups. Furthermore, this paper investigates the short- and long-run relationship between variables. The results are important for policy makers.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of multilateral trade policy (MTP) liberalization on developing countries’ economic exposure to shocks.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis is conducted on a panel data set comprising 120 countries over the period 1996–2013 and uses the within fixed effects estimator.FindingsThe empirical results suggest that over the entire sample as well as sub-samples of least developed countries (LDCs) and non-LDCs, multilateral trade liberalization have a negative and significant impact on economic exposure to shocks. Interestingly, LDCs appear to experience the highest magnitude of the reducing impact of multilateral trade liberalization on countries’ economic exposure to shocks.Research limitations/implicationsThese findings suggest that a greater cooperation among countries in the world, including among WTO members to further liberalize trade would surely contribute to reducing developing countries’ economic exposure to shocks.Practical implicationsThe current study shows that the current backlash against trade and the consequent strong appeal for domestic trade protectionist measures would likely to undermine the likelihood of further multilateral trade liberalization. One implication of this could be a rise in countries’ economic exposure to shocks.Originality/valueTo the best of the author’s knowledge, this is first the study on this matter.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in countries in South America. Additionally, the study explores the causal linkage between FDI and growth in the region. Design/methodology/approach The study employs Pedroni’s cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship between FDI and economic growth in South America. Further, the study employs the vector error correction model (VECM) to examine the long-run relationship, and the causal nexus between FDI and economic growth in South America for the period 1980–2015. Findings The Pedroni cointegration test establishes a long-run relationship between FDI and economic growth in a panel of ten countries in South America. The long-run estimates of the study find a significant positive impact of FDI on economic growth in the region. The VECM results find a short-run bidirectional causality between FDI and economic growth. The error-term is negative and significant. This indicates the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Practical implications Countries in South America should adopt policies that would substantially enlarge FDI inflows to enhance their growth and development. Originality/value Numerous studies have examined the impact of FDI on economic growth in the context of Latin America. This study fills a gap in the existing literature by providing an empirical evidence that focuses on South America. This additional perspective could form the basis for the evaluation of the investment policies, and help policymakers to pursue FDI policies that would enhance growth and development in South America.

PurposeThis paper aims to consider if an initial driver of the cross-country global coronavirus pandemic was trade openness with China.Design/methodology/approachThe authors estimate simple, seemingly unrelated and zero-inflated count data specifications of a gravity model of trade between China and its trading partners, where the number of human coronavirus infections in a country is a function of the number of distinct good/services exported and imported from China.FindingsParameter estimates reveal that the number of early cross-country human coronavirus infections increased with respect to trade openness with China, as measured by the number of distinct Chinese exported and imported goods/services, and can account for approximately 24% of early infections among China's trading partners. The findings suggest that one of the costs of trade openness and globalization is that they can be a driver of cross-country human disease pandemics.Originality/valueThis inquiry constitutes a first approach at embedding the possible disease pandemic costs of free trade, trade openness and globalization within a trade gravity model.

Purpose Drawing on the literature that has shown the prevalence of short-lived trade relationships, the purpose of this paper is to provide further understanding about this issue by exploring the impact of engaging in Global Value Chains (GVCs) on the chance of export survival at product-country level, paying special attention to the differences between advanced and developing countries. The authors also investigate whether the type of GVC participation (backward or forward) matters for export survival. Design/methodology/approach To capture to what extent a country’s exports are integrated in GVCs, the authors use the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output database to estimate value added incorporated in exports. Through the estimation of a discrete-time duration model, the authors explore the impact of engaging in GVCs on export survival using highly disaggregated trade data from the CEPII’s BACI database. Findings The findings endorse the hypothesis that deeper participation in GVCs is a key factor in explaining stability in trade relationships, mainly for developing countries where the trade flows are especially fragile. The authors also find different effects depending on the type of GVC involvement and on whether the value chain partners are advanced or developing. Originality/value The paper contributes to the literature by extending the understanding on the factors that promote the stability of exports, including among them, involvement on GVCs (and its forms) which is one of the most relevant factors to explain recent behavior of trade.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the behavior of governments in terms of trade policy design when they experience a lack of foreign resources from international trade after ensuring the sustainability of their external debt. To do so, the paper defines two concepts of trade space: “De Facto Trade Space” and “De Jure trade space.” Design/methodology/approach To conduct this study, the author relies on a panel data set comprising 109 countries over the period 1998–2014. To perform the empirical analysis, the author has mainly used the system generalized methods of moments approach. Findings The empirical analysis suggests evidence that trade space matters significantly for trade policy. Indeed, “De Facto Trade Space” is consistently associated with greater trade policy liberalization, with this positive effect being higher, the higher the development level – proxied by the real per capita income – of the concerned country. “De Jure Trade Space” tends to lead to greater trade policy liberalization in less advanced developing countries, but is associated with the adoption of trade restrictive measures in more advanced countries. Additionally, results suggest different impacts on trade policy of “Positive De Jure Trade Space” and “Negative De Jure Trade Space.” Research limitations/implications These findings suggest that the trade space, as defined in this study, plays a key role in trade policy design by policymakers. Practical implications The current study shows that trade space could significantly matter for trade policy design by policymakers. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the study dealing directly with the “trade space” concept as well as its impact on trade policy.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Thailand’s trade balances. Design/methodology/approach The design methodology is based on the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014). Findings The authors find strong support for the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Thailand trade balance with most partners, including the three largest partners, China, Japan and the USA. Research limitations/implications The long-run asymmetric effects revealed that while baht depreciation will hurt Thailand’s trade balance with China, it will improve its trade balance with the USA and has no effects with Japan. Practical implications The trade balance of different partners reacts differently to currency depreciation. Social implications A currency depreciation that improves the trade balance by promoting exports also helps to reduce the rate of unemployment. Originality/value No study has assessed the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Thailand’s trade balance with its major partners.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of institutional quality on the export-led growth (ELG) with global evidence of a panel of 119 countries. Design/methodology/approach The research framework looks at the role of exports in promoting growth via. good institutional quality. The methods of testing are panel data approach of causality, and fixed and random effects models. Findings Empirical results show that good Institutional quality mediates the ELG relationship in general, and middle income group in specific. The legal institutional quality has significant positive impact, whereas political and economic institutional quality have significant negative impact on ELG for all sampled countries. Research limitations/implications The Kuncic’s (2014) institutional quality data are annually available between 1990 and 2010. Therefore, time series analysis for individual country is bias with 21 observations. And, this study ignores other potential variables such as capital, labor, real exchange rate, and so on, may possibly contribute to omitted-variables bias. Practical implications Policymakers may well utilize institutional quality reforms either in terms of improving existing institutional quality or enhancing “second-best” institutions as a policy instrument to reap success from export-oriented growth strategies. Originality/value Existing studies on ELG have ignored institutional quality as a relevant variable. It looks at the three institutional quality indicators, namely political, economic, and legal in ELG framework.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) by focusing on institutional and economic factors among South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) as well as Central Asian countries over the period 2002-2014. Design/methodology/approach The generalized method of moments technique is employed for analyzing the impact of institutional quality on FDI inflow by controlling for the effect of market size, domestic investment and labor force. Findings The authors found large variations in terms of the impact of institutional and economic variables in regards to FDI in the SAARC, Central Asian and ASEAN regions. The results reveal that real GDP, domestic investment and economic freedom index have a positive and significant effect on FDI inflows in the SAARC region, while governance index and labor force have a negative impact on FDI inflows. In Central Asia, the real GDP, domestic investment and governance index are positively associated with FDI inflows, whereas the effect of economic freedom index on FDI is negative as well as insignificant. Apart from the GDP, other variables such as labor force, domestic investment, governance and economic freedom indices influence FDI positively in the ASEAN region. It is worth mentioning here that domestic investment produces positive effect on FDI inflows in all the regions. On the whole, the authors may conclude that institutional factors play an important role in attracting FDI inflows in the ASEAN region as compared to Central Asian and SAARC regions. Originality/value A limited research work is available that could help in identifying the role of institutional and economic factors simultaneously in attracting FDI in the SAARC, Central Asian and ASEAN regions.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the empirical literature of the macroeconomic effect of trade facilitation reforms by examining the impact of the latter on tax revenue in both developed and developing countries. The relevance of the topic lies on the fact that at the Bali Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2013, Trade Ministers agreed for the first time since the creation of the WTO (in 1995) on an Agreement to facilitate trade around the world, dubbed Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA). The study considers both at-the-border and behind-the border measures of Trade Facilitation. Design/methodology/approach To conduct this study, the authors rely on the literature related to the structural factors that explain tax revenue mobilization. The authors mainly use within fixed effects estimator. The analysis relies on 102 countries (of which 23 industrial countries) over the period 2004-2007 (based on data availability). A focus has also been made on African countries, within the sample of developing countries. Findings The empirical analysis suggests evidence of a positive and significant effect of trade facilitation reforms on non-resources tax revenue, irrespective of the sample of countries considered in the analysis. Research limitations/implications This finding should contribute to dampening the fear of policymakers in developing countries, including Africa that the implementation of the TFA would entail higher costs, without necessarily being associated with higher benefits. An avenue for future research would be to extend the period of the study when data would be available. Originality/value To the best of the authors knowledge, this study had not been performed in the literature of the determinants of tax revenue mobilization, although fact-based analysis was performed.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to find out whether under sanctions, Iran’s trade direction has shifted from Europe (trade policy of de-Europeanization) toward Asia (trade policy of Asianization). Design/methodology/approach The paper conducts three panel data estimations (FE, RE, and FMOLS) based on the gravity model approach for bilateral trade patterns between Iran-25 EU members and Iran-25 Asian countries over the period 2006-2013. Findings The empirical evidence indicates a significant negative effect of sanctions on Iran-EU bilateral trade, while it has a positive impact on trade between Iran and the Asian countries. These findings empirically confirmed that the imposition of various sanctions related to the Iran’s nuclear program has pushed the foreign trade policy of this country toward Asianization and away from Europeanization. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to examine the Iran’s trade policy changing under the imposition of sanctions related to its nuclear program.

Purpose The degree and impact of competitiveness in the banking sector is of great importance as this has great impact on the financial system and the wider economy. A question of interest here is, does competition in the commercial banking sector boost or hamper economic growth. The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis that competitiveness in commercial banking is linked to economic growth. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the Boone (2008) indicator to estimate competitiveness of banking markets in ten frontier countries in Africa from 2005 to 2012. This model measures banking competitiveness by assessing the relationship between relative marginal costs and relative market share. Through a panel data model, the authors examine the effect banking sector competitiveness has on economic growth. Findings The results of Boone (2008) indicator suggest that, to a greater extent, banks in the countries studied have a competitive banking sector. The results of the panel data estimation support the hypothesis that banking sector competition impacts positively on economic growth. Practical implications The paper recommends for more policy geared towards enhancing bank competition. This is because competitive banking system will allocate resources more efficiently to improve economic growth. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to test the link between bank competition and economic growth in a cross-section of Frontier African countries.

PurposeForeign direct investment (FDI) inflows into any country, especially ASEAN countries, is affected by any improvement in the institutional quality (IQ) of competitors such as China. As generally investors make decisions by comparing two countries’ IQ, the ratio of two countries’ IQ matters more than a single country’s IQ. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the role of IQ on FDI inflows in ASEAN countries for the period 1996-2013.Design/methodology/approachWith limited information on IQ, this study pools eight ASEAN countries as the sample for analysis from 1996 until 2013. A panel dynamic approach – namely, dynamic ordinary least square and fully modified ordinary least square – is utilized.FindingsThis study confirmed that relative IQ significantly affects FDI inflows into ASEAN countries. The low effect is more reflective of the small portion of world FDI inflows into the ASEAN region.Research limitations/implicationsThis study observes the crucial relationship between IQ and FDI – that the relative effectiveness of IQ in attracting FDI inflows depends heavily on the changes in both countries’ IQ. Hence, the effort of ASEAN countries to improve IQ and use it as a means to lure FDI inflows should go beyond a mere improvement. Focus should be on significant improvement of IQ so that multinational corporations will comfortably remain or inject new FDI into the country.Practical implicationsEvery ASEAN country should double their efforts toward improving their IQ in order to attract future FDI.Originality/valueSeveral studies have confirmed the role of IQ on FDI inflows. However, the majority of these studies have investigated the effect of IQ exclusively for a specific country even though some of them have used a panel of several countries’ data. On the other hand, investors normally evaluate their decision on whether or not to invest based on the relative terms, comparing several potential locations of investment at once. This study can be considered the first to explore the potential effect of IQ after taking into account the possibility of each ASEAN country’s IQ being easily offset by changes in the IQ of China.

PurposeThe concept of co-movement has witnessed a resurgence in the international finance literature in recent years after the black swan events. This might be due to a renewed focus on globalization and financial market integration in the world over. The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic linkages in the foreign exchange market resulting from recent globalization and financial market integration in Africa.Design/methodology/approachA conceptual framework was adapted from the extant literature and was used as the basis of modeling foreign exchange market in Africa. This paper adopts a quantitative research approach and opted for dynamic panel data analysis to empirically unearth the determinants of foreign exchange market co-movement.FindingsIt is interesting to note that exchange rate co-movements were externally determined. Robust support was found for trade intensity, competition and world interest rate on foreign exchange rates co-movement, but regional interest rate differential decreased it. These findings clearly demonstrate the level of financial development and challenges that sometimes exist in exchange rate policy implementation by policy makers in Africa.Research limitations/implicationsFuture research might incorporate bilateral investment into the model of exchange rate correlation.Originality/valueStudies focussing on simultaneous consideration of intensity, trade competition and capital account openness to exchange rate correlations in the contexts of Africa are almost non-existent, and this study makes an important contribution in not only addressing this imbalance but also more importantly improving the relatively parsimonious literature on foreign exchange co-movement.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide an economic analysis of the sources of supply to the US shrimp market. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses monthly time series data to estimate a simultaneous equations model with equations for domestic supplies from the Gulf of Mexico, imports, and prices. Findings Estimated long-run elasticities suggest that the domestic shrimp supply appears to be explained by seasons, diesel fuel price, hurricane activity, and shrimp price. The authors find evidence of a downward-slopping supply curve for the domestic harvesters that is likely to be temporary. Furthermore, anti-dumping duties have been ineffectual in curtailing imports produced by exploitation of natural shrimp biomass in developing countries and by technological advancements in aquaculture production. The authors also find evidence of a low exchange rate pass through. Finally, while domestic and import prices are not cointegrated, there is a two-way causality between them. Practical implications The authors found evidence that shrimp prices have fallen as import supply, due to technological advances in aquaculture, has risen faster than the US domestic demand over time suggesting a downward sloping supply curve. Also, the falling value of the US dollar has discouraged the imports, while the anti-dumping duties appear to have had little influence on the aggregate level of imports. Originality/value It provides a thorough investigation of the supply side of an important component of the US seafood market displaying the complexity of domestic producers’ reaction to falling prices, and ineffectual protectionism.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate how trade openness affects the structural vulnerability of developing countries. The analysis is conducted on both the entire sample of 105 countries as well as two sub-samples, namely least developed countries (LDCs) and non-LDCs. Design/methodology/approach – To perform the analysis, the author employs fixed-effects (within) regressions supplemented by instrumental variables technique based on the two-step generalized methods of moments approach. Findings – The author finds empirical evidence that although trade policy liberalization reduces the structural vulnerability on the entire sample developing countries, no statistically significant effect of such liberalization is obtained either on LDCs or non-LDCs. However, trade policy liberalization appears to reduce countries’ exposure to shocks, result that applies to the entire sample as well as the two sub-samples. The author also observes that trade policy liberalization exerts no (statistically) significant effect on the size of shocks that affect developing countries, result that applies to both the full sample and the sub-samples of LDCs and non-LDCs. Research limitations/implications – In the absence of a well-established theoretical framework on how trade openness affects the structural vulnerability of developing, the author adopts a pragmatic approach by drawing upon many insights of Loayza and Raddatz (2007) who study the structural determinants of external vulnerability. Practical implications – Developing countries in general and LDCs in particular could address their structural weaknesses by making optimal use of their trade policies. In particular, they could better use the flexibilities available to them in provisions of the World Trade Organization (WTO)’ Agreements. In this respect, the international community, notably donors of the developed world has a key role to play. Originality/value – This is the first study exploring how trade openness, capturing here through trade policy liberalization affects the structural vulnerability of developing countries.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors of technology diffusion in Saudi Arabia. It is a relevant study for Saudi Arabia, which has embarked on high gears of economic modernization that is supposed to be driven by technology and knowledge. Thus, an up-to-date research on the factors of technology diffusion in the country is expected to be of high-valued contribution. Design/methodology/approach – It employs co-integration method to analyse the long run relations between the technology diffusion and its determinants. Findings – The study finds that the international trade, particularly the oil sector trade, of the Saudi Arabia appears to play no relevant role in the international technology transfer for Saudi Arabia. The study confirms that technology is an endogenous variable in the presence of human capital; and that the higher levels of educational attainments are found to significantly improve factor productivity. The foreign direct investment (FDI) stock is confirmed to be a ...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the patterns and determinants of intra-industry trade (IIT) in manufactures between Korea and selected ASEAN countries in the period of 1997-2011. Design/methodology/approach – The effects of country-specific determinants of IIT in manufactures are examined using panel data approach. Findings – The results show that the IIT of Korea-ASEAN manufactures is positively correlated with the average income levels and foreign direct investment inflow, while it is negatively correlated with the differences in factor endowments between Korea and selected partners. Overall, market size, income dissimilarity and factor endowments are indicated as most relevant determinants of IIT in manufactures between Korea and ASEAN countries. Originality/value – Despites the importance of Korea-ASEAN IIT, studies on this subject are limited. This paper examines the pattern and determinants of IIT and its components in Korea-ASEAN manufactured trade. The paper also suggests the policy implications for the development of IIT between two parties.

Purpose – In this paper the authors address the questions whether global financial crises cause oil shocks worldwide, then whether such shocks affect trade flows of both oil importing and oil exporting countries of East-West Asia. The purpose of this paper is thus to explore such effects by specifying basically a dynamic export model using data of the Asian economies countries over the period 1980-2008. Design/methodology/approach – An ARDL specification is applied to show the dynamic effects of main determinants, including financial crisis and the world oil price, on the export flows of each country in the sample. The data for financial crisis have been compiled by Hatzius et al. (2010). Findings – The results, as a whole, imply that both financial crisis and oil price have a cross-effects on Asian trade flows in the short run, while this effects could not occur in the long run. Originality/value – The goal is to estimate an econometric model of exports to examine how recent crises affect export flows in the selected Asian countries. Different from previous studies in the literature, this paper first explores the interaction between financial crisis and oil shocks and second uses an extended and dynamic export model, based on ARDL approach. The core of the study relies on the question whether a cross-relationship between oil price and financial crisis affects the export flows of the Asian countries: China, Japan, Iran, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Turkey which are both oil importing and exporting.