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Keywords Automation; Industrial robots; Demographic change; Declining fertility Highlights * An extension of the Solow model shows that slow population growth is a major driver of automation. * Estimates show that a 1% fall in population growth is associated with a 2% rise in growth of robot density. * Automation is a strategy to cope with demographic change. Abstract We analyse the relationship between declining population growth and automation. Theoretical considerations imply that countries with lower population growth introduce automation technologies faster. We test the theoretical implication on panel data for 60 countries over the time span 1993--2013. Regression estimates support the theoretical implication, suggesting that a 1% increase in population growth is associated with an approximately 2% reduction in the growth rate of robot density. Our results are robust to the inclusion of standard control variables, different estimation methods, dynamic specifications, and changes with respect to the measurement of the stock of robots. Author Affiliation: (a) Vienna University of Business and Economics, Department of Economics, Welthandelsplatz 1, Vienna, 1020, Vienna, Austria (b) Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (Univ. Vienna, IIASA, VID/ÖAW), Vordere Zollamtsstraße 3, 1030 Vienna, Austria * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 22 May 2022; Revised 3 January 2023; Accepted 8 February 2023 (footnote)[white star] An earlier version of this paper circulated under the title 'Automation and Demographic Change.' Byline: Ana Lucia Abeliansky [ana.lucia.abeliansky@wu.ac.at] (*,a), Klaus Prettner [klaus.prettner@wu.ac.at] (a,b)

Keywords Commitment devices; Pessimism; Self-control; Social media Highlights * Experimental subjects perform a tedious task while being tempted to procrastinate. * They are given an opportunity to remove the tempting YouTube videos (commitment). * We check whether willingness to pay for commitment matches losses when tempted. * While a substantial share appear to 'overcommit', undercommitment is more common. Abstract We explore the possibility that demand for costly commitment may prove unnecessary and thus excessive. In an online experiment, subjects face a tedious productivity task where tempting YouTube videos invite procrastination. Subjects can pay for a commitment device that removes the videos with probability less than one, allowing us to compare their willingness to pay with realized material and psychological costs of temptation. A significant share of subjects do overestimate their commitment demand, being overly pessimistic about their performance when tempted. Even more subjects underestimate demand, and total realized losses from revealed undercommitment is greater than from overcommitment. Thus, undercommitment dominates and is inconsistent with pure noise in stated demand. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, P.O. Box 640, Gothenburg SE-405 30, Sweden (b) School of Economics and Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin, Ireland * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 23 June 2022; Revised 21 December 2022; Accepted 21 January 2023 (footnote)[white star] This paper supersedes an earlier draft circulated under the title 'Pessimism and Overcommitment'. We thank Giuseppe Attanasi, Pol Campos-Mercade, Christina Gravert, Olof Johansson-Stenman, Leonhard Lades, Lisa Norrgren, Eva Ranehill, Séverine Toussaert and participants at the SABE ECR Workshop (Dublin), UCD Behavioural Science and Policy seminar, University of Gothenburg Behavioural and Experimental Economics seminar, ESA Junior Faculty webinar and UCD Behavioural Science Workshop on 'The Economics of Self-Control' for helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank Milos Fisar and the team at Masaryk University Experimental Economics Laboratory (MUEEL) for their assistance with running the experimental sessions. This work was supported by the Torsten Söderberg Foundation [grant no. E25/18]; and Formas [Grant no. 2017-00225]. Our analysis plan is pre-registered at osf.io/dz3fp. The experiment was approved by University College Dublin Office of Research Ethics (reference no. HS-E-21-52-Samahita). Byline: Claes Ek [claes.ek@economics.gu.se] (*,a), Margaret Samahita [margaret.samahita@ucd.ie] (b)

Keywords One-child policy; Child abandonment; Child abduction; Son-preference bias Abstract In the past 40 years, a large number of children have been abandoned or abducted in China. We argue that the implementation of the one-child policy can help to explain changes in the patterns of both child abandonment and child abduction. We also contend that the cultural preference for sons in China has shaped unique gender-based patterns, as attested to by the fact that the majority of the children who are abandoned are girls and the majority of the children who are abducted are boys. We provide empirical evidence for the following findings: Stricter implementation of the one-child policy leads to more child abandonment locally and more child abduction in neighboring regions; A stronger son-preference bias intensifies both the local effects and spatial spillover effects of the region's one-child policy on child abandonment and abduction; and, (3) With the gradual relaxation of the one-child policy after 2002, the frequency of both child abandonment and child abduction has decreased significantly. This paper is the first to provide empirical evidence regarding the unintended consequences of the one-child policy in relation to missing children in China. Author Affiliation: (a) School of Economics, CISE and WISE, Xiamen University, 422 Siming South Road, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, PR. China (b) University of Maryland and NBER, Tydings Hall, 3114 Preinkert Dr, College Park, MD 20742, United States (c) Xiamen University and Xiamen University Malaysia, Jalan Sunsuria, Bandar Sunsuria, 43900 Sepang, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 19 September 2021; Revised 2 February 2023; Accepted 7 February 2023 Byline: Xiaojia Bao [xiaojiabao@xmu.edu.cn] (a), Sebastian Galiani (b,*), Kai Li (a), Cheryl Xiaoning Long (c)

Keywords Emergency cash transfer; COVID-19; Brazil; Beliefs; Social distancing Abstract This paper examines the impacts of emergency cash-transfers on individuals' social distancing behaviour and beliefs about COVID-19. We focus on the impacts of 'Auxilio Emergencial' (AE): a large-scale cash-transfer in Brazil targeting low-income individuals who were unemployed or informally employed during the pandemic. To identify causal effects we exploit exogenous variation, arising from the AE design, in individuals' access to the cash-transfer programme. Using data from an online survey, our results suggest that eligibility to the emergency cash transfer led to a reduced likelihood of individuals contracting COVID-19, likely to have been driven by a reduction in working hours. Moreover, the cash transfer seems to have increased perceptions about the seriousness of coronavirus, while also exacerbating misconceptions about the pandemic. These findings indicate effects of emergency cash-transfers in determining individuals' narratives about a pandemic, in enabling social distancing and potentially in reducing the spread of the disease. Author Affiliation: (a) School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, United Kingdom (b) School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, United Kingdom and Institute of Fiscal Studies, London, United Kingdom (c) School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 21 June 2022; Revised 6 January 2023; Accepted 9 January 2023 (footnote)[white star] We are grateful to Marilva Diniz Leite for research assistance, and for helpful comments from Sheheryar Banuri, Gabriela Barufi, Irma Clots-Figueras, Alex Klein, Koohyun Kwon and participants in University of Kent seminars, the 2022 Royal Economic Society Meeting, the ESA 2021 Global Online Conference and the 2021 Eastern Arc Social Science Experimental Workshop. This research was funded by University of Kent's 2020 GCRF Emergency Response Fund. Byline: Fernanda L. Lopez de Leon [f.de-leon@kent.ac.uk] (*,a), Bansi Malde [b.k.malde@kent.ac.uk] (b), Ben McQuillin [b.mcquillin@uea.ac.uk] (c)

Keywords Presidential Elections; Newspapers; Media History; Voter Opinion Abstract This paper estimates the persuasive effect of newspaper presidential endorsements on its readers over five elections (1960-1980), a period when the vast majority of newspaper endorsements were for the Republican candidate. I find that newspaper endorsements caused a large, significant change in readers' preferred candidate and Republican endorsements, despite being more common, were at least as effective as Democratic endorsements. Because my empirical strategy allows me to estimate causal effects for a large sample of U.S. newspapers in each election year, I can calculate the cumulative effect of newspaper endorsements. I estimate that over the 5 elections covered in my sample, U.S. newspapers shifted more than 17 million voters toward Republican candidates. Abbreviations Voting, Presidential Elections; Newspapers, Political Persuation Author Affiliation: Department of Economics & Finance, Middle Tennessee State University 1642 MTSU Blvd, Murfreesboro, TN 37132, United States Article History: Received 28 June 2022; Revised 9 January 2023; Accepted 26 January 2023 Byline: Steven Sprick Schuster [stevenschuster@gmail.com]

Keywords Loss-aversion; Tax avoidance; Savings; Regression kink design Highlights * Contributions to tax-deductible savings plans are used to manipulate tax refunds. * Some evidence this behavior is driven by tax filers with low financial literacy. * Contributions are lumpy, occurring disproportionately at the end of the tax year. * Findings are consistent with loss aversion. Abstract Using administrative data from Canada linked to a financial capability survey, I show that tax-deductible savings plans are often used to manipulate final balances owed to the central tax authority during tax season. This finding implies a strong avoidance motive for saving, where tax filers manipulate final balances rather than total tax liabilities, consistent with loss-aversion. The magnitude of this effect is economically significant. For example, each $100 owed increases the likelihood of contributing by about half a percentage point. There is suggestive evidence that the behavior is driven by tax filers with low financial literacy who make disproportionately large contributions in the last 60 days before the annual deadline. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Economics, Memorial University, Canada (b) Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Statistics Canada, Canada (c) Retirement and Savings Institute, HEC Montréal, Canada Article History: Received 4 December 2021; Revised 5 November 2022; Accepted 15 January 2023 (footnote)[white star] I am grateful to Marc Frenette, Pierre-Carl Michaud, René Morissette, and Alex Rees-Jones for their comments and advice. I also thank Winnie Chan for her work on the data linkage. Statistics Canada acknowledges financial support from the Retirement and Savings Institute at HEC Montréal to produce the data linkage. Any errors are my own. (footnote)# The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Statistics Canada or the Government of Canada. Byline: Derek Messacar [dmessacar@mun.ca] (a,b,c,#)

Keywords Inequality; Consumption; Populism Abstract Populists since the Roman Republic have argued for redistribution from an elite to ordinary people and depicted themselves as the true representative of the 'people'. However, very little research has explored whether populists actually affect the distribution of income or consumption when in power. The present paper therefore asks, whether populists administrations actually achieve redistribution. After a short theoretical discussion, our empirical strategy combines new data on populism in Latin America and the Caribbean with information on income and consumption inequality since 1970. Estimates suggest that populist governments in the region generally have achieved no redistribution, leading us to conclude that the redistributive aims of populists are mainly empty rhetoric. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Social Policy, Sociology and Criminology, Muirhead Tower, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, United Kingdom (b) Prague University of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics, nám. W. Churchilla 1938/4, 130 67 Praha 3, Czech Republic (c) Department of Economics, Universidad de Navarra, Edificio Amigo, Pamplona 31009, Spain (d) Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Fuglesangs Allé 4, 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark (e) Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), P.O. Box 55665, Stockholm 10215, Sweden * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 27 May 2022; Revised 5 December 2022; Accepted 9 January 2023 Byline: Martin Strobl (a), Andrea Sáenz de Viteri (b), Martin Rode [martinrode@unav.es] (c,*), Christian Bjørnskov (d,e)

Keywords Sovereign debt; Quality of information; Signaling; Incomplete information Abstract This paper develops a sovereign debt model proposing that a debt issuance can be a credible signaling channel between a sovereign government and foreign creditors. The government has private information regarding the future economy. The one with a good economic outlook would like to find a credible way to disclose it to obtain a high bond price. Foreign creditors are interested in inferring the government's private information to assess sovereign default risk precisely. The government's private information is imperfect, so the precision of information matters. We study how the interaction of the prior, the signal, and its precision affects the equilibrium and the resulting welfare. We propose a unique separating signaling equilibrium demonstrating the feature that a more precise signal of good economic outlook leads to a greater extent of fiscal austerity. As the information becomes more precise, the signaling cost for a government with a good economic outlook increases. Interestingly, unless the prior is very pessimistic, a highly precise signal harms the sovereign because a resulting strong signaling motive drives it to reduce bond issuance excessively (paradox of highly precise information). Author Affiliation: (a) School of Economics, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, United Kingdom (b) Department of Economics, Kansas State University, 320 Waters Hall, 1603 Old Claflin Place, Manhattan, KS 66506, United States (c) Department of Economics, Wayne State University, 656 W. Kirby, 2125 FAB, Detroit, MI 48202, United States * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 10 March 2021; Revised 14 November 2022; Accepted 15 November 2022 (footnote)[white star] We have benefited a lot from the comments and suggestions of the editor and the anonymous referees. We also thank Ricardo Nunes, John Breen, and participants at Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, the Korean Economics Review International Conference, and at seminars at Sogang University, Kyungpook National University, University of Seoul, and Wayne State University for their helpful comments and suggestions. Byline: Hyungseok Joo (a), Yoon-Jin Lee [yoonjin@ksu.edu] (*,b), Young-Ro Yoon (c)

Keywords Recursive preferences; Prudence; Precaution; Substitution effects; Self-protection; Self-insurance Highlights * Precautionary saving, self-protection and self-insurance under recursive utility. * Unifying result for precautionary behavior in single-instrument cases. * Substitution effects arise when two or more instruments are used. * Substitution effects can dominate the precautionary effect of income risk. * Precautionary disinvestment possible for decision-makers who are prudent otherwise. Abstract Using a unified approach, we show how precautionary saving, self-protection and self-insurance are jointly determined by risk preferences and the preference over the timing of uncertainty resolution. We provide a general result when decision-makers use a single instrument at a time. When multiple instruments are used simultaneously, substitution effects arise which attenuate precaution. A numerical analysis demonstrates that these substitution effects can dominate the precautionary effect. For plausible risk and time preference parameters and empirically relevant income risk levels, substitution effects can lead to precautionary disinvestment in self-protection and even crowd out the demand for self-protection entirely. In this case, what looks like lack of precautionary behavior at the surface might not be indicative of lack of prudence but simply be the result of omitted-instrument bias. Author Affiliation: (a) INRAE SMART, Institut Agro, Rennes, 35000, France (b) Department of Finance, University of Iowa, United States * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 29 April 2022; Revised 13 October 2022; Accepted 8 January 2023 (footnote)[white star] We are grateful for valuable comments to Olivier l'Haridon, Debrah Meloso, Ray Rees, Nicolas Treich, as well as to participants at the European Group of Risk and Insurance Economists seminar and the Risk Theory Society, Association Française de Science Economique, European Economic Association, French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists meetings, the World Risk and Insurance Economics Congress, and the Conference in Honor of David Cummins and Mary Weiss. We thank AJ Bostian and Yu Zheng for their assistance with programming. We also thank two referees and an associate editor for a critical and constructive review process, which improved the paper significantly. The usual disclaimer applies. Byline: Christoph Heinzel [christoph.heinzel@inrae.fr] (a), Richard Peter [richard-peter@uiowa.edu] (*,b)

Keywords Tax amnesty; Tax compliance; Tax debt; Lab experiment Highlights * With a laboratory experiment, we study novel amnesty modalities in a sample of Bolivian workers. * An amnesty with a longer duration reduces tax compliance after the amnesty ends. * Extended amnesties tend to work better when accompanied by other measure. * Effects on compliance come primarily from individuals with previously high compliance rates. Abstract Tax amnesties can raise short-term revenues but reduce long-term compliance by creating expectations of future amnesties and reducing tax morale. This paper uses a laboratory experiment in Bolivia to investigate the impact of a change in the duration of amnesties and other previously unexamined amnesty modalities. The experiment examines the behavior of 338 professional workers in order to compare tax compliance, debt payment, and revenues during and post-amnesty under four different amnesty rules: (1) a one-shot unannounced amnesty (one period in the middle of a 25-period game), (2) an extended amnesty (three periods in the middle of a 25-period game), (3) a change in the audit probability rule after an extended amnesty, and (4) deductions on tax debt for paying in the first or second rounds of the extended amnesty. Increasing amnesty's duration reduces tax compliance and cannot outperform one-shot amnesty's total revenues. Extended amnesties with debt deductions increase total tax compliance compared to extended amnesties without debt deductions with no effects on revenues. Effects on compliance come primarily from individuals with previously high compliance rates. Any kind of amnesty mostly unmotivates individuals with low compliance rates, thus impacting amnesties' capability to raise revenues in the long term. Author Affiliation: (a) Universidad Privada Boliviana, Victor Ustariz Avenue, Km. 6.5, Colcapirhua, Cochabamba, Bolivia (b) Inter-American Development Bank, 1300 New York Avenue N.W., 20577 D.C., USA * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 14 October 2021; Revised 18 December 2022; Accepted 30 December 2022 Byline: Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza (a), Huáscar Eguino (b), Lorena Heller (a), Soraya Roman [sorayaroman@upb.edu] (a,*)

Keywords Limited data; Bayesian updating; Information acquisition; Revealed preference Abstract This paper characterizes expected utility preferences with information acquisition and Bayesian updating using stochastic choice data on acts. This contrasts with research that uses state-dependent stochastic choices which is difficult to obtain outside of the laboratory. The characterization is in the spirit of the Wald-Pearce lemma and requires that there is no random deviation rule that improves ex-ante expected utility for all possible information structures consistent with the data. The result is extended to place bounds on an unknown prior and facilitate welfare comparisons in the presence of framing. These bounds are computable via linear programming. Moreover, we show that in special cases, the bounds can be found explicitly by solving a series of Bayesian persuasion games. Author Affiliation: Department of Economics, The Ohio State University, United States Article History: Received 23 March 2022; Revised 28 December 2022; Accepted 3 January 2023 (footnote)[white star] I thank Victor Aguiar, Roy Allen, Yaron Azreili, Christopher P. Chambers, Ce Liu, and Renkun Yang for useful comments. Any remaining errors are my own. I am supported in part by the National Science Foundation grant NSF-2049749. Byline: John Rehbeck [rehbeck.7@osu.edu]

Keywords Income inequality; Inter-ethnic conflict; Arab-Israeli conflict; Mandate Palestine Abstract We examine the effect of inter-ethnic income inequality on conflict intensification in Mandate Palestine, using a novel panel dataset comprising district-level characteristics and conflict intensity across 18 districts during 1926--1945. We instrument Jewish-Arab income inequality by combining the annual variation in rainfall shocks with cross-sectional variation in pre-Mandate crop intensity, to extract exogenous changes in inequality between non-agrarian Jews and agrarian Arabs. We find a substantial effect of inequality on conflict intensification, especially during periods where the relationship between Arabs and Jews were particularly strained. Our estimates are driven by Arab-initiated attacks, reflecting the local average treatment effects of Arab farmers who move from agrarian work to violence in response to adverse rainfall shocks; in other words, economic shocks coupled with existing economic segregation facilitate the transition into violence when opposing groups are economic substitutes. Further investigations suggest that inequality-driven violence was most likely an expression of resentment, rather than the result of opportunity costs or appropriation. Author Affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Melbourne, FBE Building Level 4, Victoria 3010, Australia * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 17 May 2022; Revised 18 November 2022; Accepted 28 November 2022 (footnote)[white star] We thank Kim Bullimore for excellent research assistance, and Ayman Qwaider and Rami Osman for support with translating from Arabic. We are grateful to Victoria Baranov, Jeff Borland, Nisvan Erkal, Hilary Hoynes, Jordi Vidal-Robert, Sarah Walker, Jeff Williamson, Jun Xiao, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, and Yanos Zylberberg for their helpful comments on earlier drafts. Participants at the Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society (CUHK), Australasian Cliometrics Workshop (Sydney), EEA Annual Congress (Lisbon), EHES Conference (Tübingen), Middle Eastern Economic History Workshop (ANU), Academia Sinica, Macquarie, Sant'Anna, SMU, Sydney, and UNSW, also provided useful feedback. We acknowledge financial support from the Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Melbourne and from the Australian Research Council. A previous version of this paper was titled 'Inter-Ethnic Income Inequality and Conflict Intensification in Mandate Palestine'. Byline: Laura Panza [lpanza@unimelb.edu.au] (*), Eik Leong Swee

Keywords Differential sorting; Employee performance evaluations; Same-gender bias; Subjectivity Abstract This paper investigates the existence of in-group bias (preferential treatment of one's own group) in performance evaluations. Drawing information from an educational setting and employing a unique dataset, we use principals' observational assessment of teachers to examine the impact of gender interactions on evaluation of employees. Our results indicate that average classroom observation ratings for female teachers, relative to males, were 0.19 of a standard deviation higher when they were evaluated by female principals. We explore the mechanisms and present convincing sets of results consistent with the tendency of superiors to favor same-gender subordinates. Several robustness checks and different placebo tests support our findings. Author Affiliation: University of California, Riverside, United States Article History: Received 4 September 2021; Revised 22 November 2022; Accepted 28 November 2022 (footnote)[white star] I would like to thank Laura Schechter, the associate editor, an anonymous referee and Michael Lovenheim for helpful comments and suggestions. All results, conclusions and errors are my own. Byline: Ozkan Eren

Keywords Quantum computing; Big data; Artificial intelligence; Economic calculation Abstract Advancements in cloud computing, machine learning and quantum processing are starting to erase long-standing conceptions on the scarcity of information. In this paper, we ask whether removing all limits on the volume, velocity, and variety of data will allow the messiness of the market process to be replaced by a more rational system of resource allocation and distribution that would generate less waste and more equity. We conclude that unlimited access to information will not solve the problem of economic calculation, as some have conjectured. The market process provides valuable benefits beyond the simple aggregation of spatially and temporally dispersed information. As such, it is unlikely to be displaced by more centralized forms of economic organization. Author Affiliation: (a) Michael A. Leven School of Management, Entrepreneurship and Hospitality, Kennesaw State University, 1000 Chastain Road, Kennesaw, GA 30144, USA (b) Broadwell College of Business & Economics, Fayetteville State University, 1200 Murchison Road, Fayetteville, NC 28301, USA * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 13 July 2022; Revised 11 October 2022; Accepted 13 October 2022 Byline: Steven E. Phelan (a), Nikolai G. Wenzel [nikolaiwenzel@gmail.com] (b,*)

Keywords Gender gap; Gender differences; Competitiveness; Willingness to compete Abstract We examine gender differences in willingness to compete, using data from a TV game show where in each episode the winner of an elimination competition in expectation wins hundreds of thousands of euros. At several stages of the elimination competition, contestants face a choice between continuing to compete and opting out in exchange for a comparatively modest prize. When there is no strategic interaction embedded in this choice, we observe the well-known pattern that women compete less than men, but this difference derives entirely from women avoiding competition against men. When there is strategic interaction and contestants should factor in their opponents' willingness to compete, women again tend to avoid competing against men; men then seem to anticipate the lower competitiveness of female opponents, as evidenced by their greater propensity to compete against women. Ability differences are unlikely to explain these results. Our findings show that the gender difference in willingness to compete that is well-documented in the experimental economics literature also occurs in a quasi-experimental real-world setting with exceptionally high stakes, and underline the importance of the gender of competitors. Author Affiliation: (a) Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands (b) Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands (c) School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit (VU) Amsterdam, The Netherlands (d) Department of Economics, University of Essex, United Kingdom * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 3 March 2022; Revised 21 December 2022; Accepted 25 December 2022 (footnote)â° The paper has benefited from discussions with seminar participants at the University of Western Australia, the University of Technology Sydney, the University of New South Wales, the University of Sydney, the Bank of England, Copenhagen Business School, the University of Essex, the University of Warwick, the University of Exeter, the University of Bergen, the Burgundy School of Business and the University of Groningen, and with participants of M-BEES 2019 Maastricht, SPUDM 2019 Amsterdam and TIBER 2021 Tilburg. We gratefully acknowledge support from the Dutch Research Council (NWO). Byline: Thomas Buser [t.buser@uva.nl] (a,b), Martijn J. van den Assem [m.j.vanden.assem@vu.nl] (b,c), Dennie van Dolder [d.vandolder@essex.ac.uk] (d,*)

Keywords Intelligence levels; Die roll paradigm; Honesty Abstract In this paper we study the link between intelligence and lying. This is done under two distinct experimental paradigms: the die rolling paradigm, and the mind game paradigm. We compare the behaviour of subjects conditional on their intelligence in each of these paradigms when lying benefits the subject who lies (Selfish treatment) or a charitable cause (Charity treatment). We report some evidence that lying increases when it benefits a charitable cause, and limited evidence that more intelligent individuals increase lying when doing so benefits a charity. Our results are consistent with models of self--image concerns, and could have important implications for the existing lying literature. Author Affiliation: (a) University of Birmingham, United Kingdom (b) CESifo, Munich, Germany (c) Bangor University, United Kingdom * Corresponding author at: University of Birmingham, United Kingdom. Article History: Received 27 October 2021; Revised 10 November 2022; Accepted 12 December 2022 (footnote) We thank the University of Birmingham Business School, and the University of Exeter Business School for funding this research. We thank David Gill, Agne Kajackaite, John List and Shaul Shalvi for helpful comments and suggestions. Byline: Michalis Drouvelis [m.drouvelis@bham.ac.uk] (a,b,*), Graeme Pearce (c)

Keywords Crime; Violence diffusion; War on drugs Abstract This paper studies spatial violence diffusion when criminal organizations specializing in one illegal activity (e.g., drug trafficking) are attacked by security forces. Our theoretical framework suggests that violence diffusion will be linked to criminal diversification. Using the Mexican War on Drugs, we find evidence supporting this prediction. We document that the Mexican War on Drugs induced drug trafficking organizations to begin stealing hydrocarbon products from the Mexican oil pipeline network. In turn, this portfolio reallocation of illegal activities caused violence to escalate in oil pipeline network locations holding little strategic value for drug trafficking. Furthermore, within the pipeline network, branches located further away from the government's eye were more susceptible to the establishment of criminal monopolies and thus experienced greater upticks in violence than other branches. Author Affiliation: (a) Sabanci University, Turkey (b) Indiana University, United States * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 19 May 2022; Revised 1 November 2022; Accepted 5 December 2022 (footnote)[white star] We appreciate participants' suggestions in presentations given at Clemson University, Bayreuth University, the Ostrom Workshop, Bank of Mexico, CIDE, Bogazici University, and the International NESPUTT Workshop at the University of Milano. We would especially like to thank David Stadelman for his detailed and insightful comments. Byline: Iván López Cruz [ilopezcr@sabanciuniv.edu] (a), Gustavo Torrens [gtorrens@iu.edu] (*,b)

Keywords Female politicians; Gender policies; Long-term care Abstract We study whether female-headed local governments in Spain are more likely to engage in gender sensitive policies such as long-term care support, pre-schooling, or work and family-life balancing services. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design estimated on the set of mixed electoral races, we find no evidence of female mayors being more likely to implement these policies at the local level. We do find evidence of differences between parties in the probability of implementing these policies, suggesting that the gender of the politician is less important than their partisan or ideological position when it comes to these policy levers. We interpret these results through a model of political selection in which strong parties can impose their agendas on candidates despite primitive differences in policy preferences across genders. Author Affiliation: (a) Dept. of Geography and the Environment, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK (b) Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Business School, Av. Pres. Figueroa Alcorta 7350, CABA C1425CKB, Argentina * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 16 February 2022; Revised 17 October 2022; Accepted 28 November 2022 (footnote)[white star] We would like to thank María Inés Berniell, Guillermo Caruana, Mónica Martínez-Bravo and seminar participants at CEMFI, SAEe 2016 and the Uppsala Political Economy Workshop 2017 for useful comments and suggestions. Funding from European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Programme (ERC Starting Grant agreement 638893 - CompSChoice) and from Spain's Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (María de Maeztu Programme for Units of Excellence in R&D, MDM-2016-0684) is gratefully acknowledged. A previous version of this paper was distributed under the title 'Do Female Leaders Promote Gender-Sensitive Policies?'. Byline: Felipe Carozzi [F.Carozzi@lse.ac.uk] (a), Andrés Gago [agago@utdt.edu] (*,b)

Keywords Information; Spectator experiment; Happiness; Intrinsic preferences Abstract In ordinary life, many types of situation occur in which a better-informed agent faces a decision over whether to reveal some bad news to an uninformed counterpart. This paper reports an experiment designed to explore how, in such contexts, the decisions of informed individuals are shaped by intrinsic preferences over information. Impartial spectators are tasked with deciding whether to make initially uninformed subjects aware that their actions have inadvertently generated negative externalities. Knowledge of this consequence is materially useless and reduces the subjective happiness of the externality-generating subjects, as is anticipated by the vast majority of spectators. However, 72% of spectators still choose to reveal the information. This suggests the existence of intrinsic preferences for information possession which are not based on hedonic considerations and indeed are sufficiently strong as to trump spectators' concerns about the negative hedonic consequences of revelation. However, the hedonic impact of information is not completely overlooked, as spectators are less likely to reveal information the more strongly they believe it will damage the recipient's happiness. Author Affiliation: School of Economics, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, 199 Taikang East Road, Ningbo, China, 315100 * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 18 February 2022; Revised 27 July 2022; Accepted 4 August 2022 Byline: Tom Lane [Tom.Lane@nottingham.edu.cn] (*)

Keywords dark web; darknet markets; drugs; crime Abstract The Dark Net has changed the way drugs are traded globally by shifting trade away from the streets and onto the web. In this paper, I study whether the shutdown of Dark Net marketplaces has an impact on the amount of drugs traded in the streets and on crimes that are normally associated to street drug dealing. To identify a causal effect, I use daily data from the US and exploit unexpected shutdowns of large online drug trading platforms. In a regression discontinuity design, I compare crime levels in days after the shutdowns to those immediately preceding them. I find that shutting down Dark Net marketplaces leads to a significant increase in drug trade in the streets. However, the effect is short-lived. In the days immediately following shutdowns, marijuana-related crimes increase by around five percent but revert to pre-shutdown levels within eighteen days. I find no impact of shutdowns of Dark Net marketplaces on thefts, assaults, homicides and prostitution. Author Affiliation: Newcastle University, United Kingdom Article History: Received 6 July 2021; Revised 31 July 2022; Accepted 6 August 2022 Byline: Diego Zambiasi [diego.zambiasi@ncl.ac.uk]

This paper unveils an important but unexplored channel for the growth of low-skill service employment between 1960 and 2010: the spillover from dual-earner households. In particular, we analyze the cross-city association between variation in dual-earner households and employment growth in home production substitutes. To address concerns about endogeneity, we use the fact that married working women were extremely concentrated on administrative support occupations, while their birth places were heterogeneously distributed. Our results show that one more dual-earner couple creates 0.3 low-skill service jobs in local economies, and the effect mainly comes from the home production service sector. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Economics, Ewha Womans University, 52 Ewhayeodae-gil, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03760, Republic of Korea (b) School of Economics, Yonsei University, 50 Yonsei-ro Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Republic of Korea * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 27 October 2021; Revised 3 June 2022; Accepted 4 August 2022 Byline: Jongkwan Lee [kwanlee@ewha.ac.kr] (a), Myungkyu Shim [myungkyushim@yonsei.ac.kr] (b), Hee-Seung Yang [heeseung.yang@yonsei.ac.kr] (*,b)

Keywords Inequality; Financial development; Banks; Financial technology; Fintech Summary This paper analyses the role of financial development and financial technology in driving inequality in (returns to) wealth. Using micro data from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth conducted by the Bank of Italy for the period 1991--2016, we find that wealthy households achieve higher returns than other households. With an instrumental variable approach to control for endogeneity, we find that financial development (number of bank branches) and financial technology (use of remote banking) both have a positive association with households' financial wealth and financial returns. While households of all wealth deciles benefit from the effects of financial development and financial technology, these benefits are larger when moving toward the top of the wealth distribution. However, the economic significance of this gap fell in the last part of the sample period, as remote banking became more widespread. Author Affiliation: (a) Bank for International Settlements and Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, Basel Switzerland, United Kingdom (b) Bank for International Settlements and CEPR. Centralbahnplatz, 2 -4002 Basel Switzerland (c) Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research, Rome Italy * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 15 July 2021; Revised 28 July 2022; Accepted 10 August 2022 (footnote) We would like to the Editor Joachim Winter and two referees for very useful comments. We also thank Stijn Claessens, Giovanni D'Alessio, Marco Bottone, Nicola Branzoli, Sebastian Doerr, Giuseppe Ilardi, Enisse Kharroubi, Luiz Pereira da Silva, Goetz von Peter, Alfonso Rosolia, Hyun Song Shin, Egon Zakrajsek and seminar participants at the Bank of Italy and Bank for International Settlements for comments and suggestions. We thank Giulio Cornelli and Haiwei Cao for excellent research assistance. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily of the Bank of Italy or the Bank for International Settlements. Declarations of interest: none. Byline: Jon Frost (a), Leonardo Gambacorta [leonardo.gambacorta@bis.org] (b,*), Romina Gambacorta (c)

Keywords Gender differences; Risk preferences; Loss aversion; Rank-dependent utility; Prospect theory; Maximum likelihood; Hierarchical Bayesian modelling Abstract Gender differences in decision making is a topic that has attracted much attention in the literature and the debate seems to be inconclusive. A method that is often used in the economics literature to account for gender effects is by estimating econometric structural models and testing the significance of the estimated parameters. In this paper we focus on estimations of preference models and we show how omitting to account for behavioural heterogeneity can lead to failures in identifying potential differences. Using data from risky choice experiments, we compare the traditional representative agent Maximum Likelihood Estimation approach against two more flexible inference methods that allow for heterogeneity at the individual level, the Maximum Simulated Likelihood Estimation, and the Hierarchical Bayesian modelling. We show how ignoring heterogeneity may lead to failures capturing gender differences and we suggest the use of Bayesian modelling to effectively estimate the underlying parameters. Author Affiliation: Department of Economics, Lancaster University Management School, LA1 4YX, Lancaster, UK * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 15 January 2021; Revised 22 June 2022; Accepted 10 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] We are grateful to Hong Il Yoo for providing helpful comments. We would also like to thank the Guest Editor Lionel Page and an anonymous referee for their very helpful comments that led to significant improvements in both the analysis and the presentation. The support of The High End Computing (HEC) facility at Lancaster University is gratefully recognised. Byline: Jessica Alam, Konstantinos Georgalos [k.georgalos@lancaster.ac.uk] (*), Harrison Rolls

Keywords Ultimatum game; Stochasticity; Risk Attitude; Probability Matching Abstract Brenner and Vriend (2006) argued (experimentally and theoretically) that one should not expect proposers in ultimatum games to learn to converge to the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium offer, as finding the optimal offer is a hard learning problem for (boundedly-rational) proposers. In this paper we show that providing the proposers with given (fixed) acceptance probabilities (essentially eliminating the learning task) leads to somewhat lower offers, but still substantially above the monetary payoff-maximizing offer. By using a Risk Attitude test and a Probability Matching test, we show experimentally that the proposers' attitude with respect to risk, as well as their ability to interpret and deal with probabilities may matter when it comes to making UG offers. Thus, we argue that the lack of convergence to the minimum offers in ultimatum games may be related to the inherent stochasticity of typical UG experiments, highlighting a possible cause of such deviations that seems a complementary explanation to existing ones. Author Affiliation: (a) School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, P.R. China (b) School of Statistics, Jilin University of Finance and Economics, Jilin 130117, P.R. China (c) School of Economics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, and KRI-Modern Business Research Center of Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, 310018, P.R. China (d) School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London, UK * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 14 April 2021; Revised 1 July 2022; Accepted 7 July 2022 (footnote)[white star] We thank Nobi Hanaki, Friederike Mengel, Vessela Daskalova, Michalis Drouvelis and participants of the ASFEE (Nice), WEHIA (London) and ESA (Vancouver) conferences as well as a GREDEG (Nice) seminar for comments and suggestions. This work was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 71973128), Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (No. LY18G030012) and Funded by the Humanities and Social Sciences Research Program of the Ministry of Education (No. 18YJA790092). All errors are our own. Byline: Tianxiao Qi (a,b), Bin Xu (c), Jinshan Wu [jinshanw@bnu.edu.cn] (*,a), Nicolaas J. Vriend [n.vriend@qmul.ac.uk] (**,d)

Keywords Domestic violence; Life satisfaction; Intra-household bargaining power; Anti-domestic violence law Highlights * We explore the impact of China's Anti-Domestic Violence Law on women's welfare using a DD approach. * The law has significantly increased the life satisfaction of married women. * The increase in life satisfaction is greater for women with higher salaries, better education, and of younger age than their respective counterparts. * The increase in life satisfaction is realized through women's increased self-confidence, health status, and intra-household bargaining power. * The law's implementation also increases women's probability of being promoted and their salaries. Abstract China's first national Anti-Domestic Violence Law was enacted in March 2016. It offers legal protection to the victims of domestic violence. This paper estimates the intent-to-treat effect of its implementation on women's welfare. Using a nationally representative dataset, our difference-in-differences estimator shows that the law has significantly increased the life satisfaction of married women. Further exploration shows that the increase in life satisfaction is greater for women with higher salaries, better education, and of younger age than their respective counterparts. The increase in life satisfaction is realized through women's increased self-confidence, health status, and intra-household bargaining power as measured by household expenditures on goods favored by women. We also show that the law's implementation might have a broader effect on women's social status, reflected through their increased probability of being promoted and higher salaries. Author Affiliation: (a) School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, China (b) Institute of Economics and Finance, Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing, China * Corresponding author at: 86 West Yushan Road, Pukou District, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China 211815. Article History: Received 30 April 2021; Revised 24 July 2022; Accepted 27 July 2022 Byline: Xin Gu [guxin@seu.edu.cn] (a), Hao Li [lihao2021@seu.edu.cn] (a), Langchuan Peng [langchuan_peng@126.com] (*,b)

Keywords Migration; Crime; China Abstract Large scale rural-to-urban migration and China's household registration system have resulted in about 61 million children being left-behind in rural villages when their parents migrate to the cities. This paper uses survey and experimental data from male rural-urban migrants -- prison inmates and comparable non-inmates -- to examine whether parental absence in childhood as a result of migration is associated with increased criminality in adulthood. Control functions and sibling fixed effects are used to identify causal impacts. Parental absence due to migration is found to increase the propensity of adult males to commit crimes. Being left-behind decreases educational attainment and increases risk-loving behavior, both of which increase criminality. Author Affiliation: (a) Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne, Australia (b) Research School of Economics, CBE, Australian National University, Australia (c) China Center for Economic Research, National School of Development, Peking University, China * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 8 April 2021; Revised 1 August 2022; Accepted 11 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] We would like to thank seminar and conference participants at the Australian National University, University of Melbourne, Fudan University, Jinan University, the 2016 NBER-CCER Conference, the 2019 CCER Summer Institute and the 2019 Asian and Australasian Society of Labour Economics (AASLE) Conference for their helpful suggestions and comments. We also thank Guochang Zhao for his technical guidance and Matthew Notowidigdo for his advice. Funding for the data collection was provided by the Australian Research Council Linkage Grant Scheme (Projects LP0669728 and LP140100514). Ethics approval was obtained from the Australian National University (2013/494). Byline: Lisa Cameron [lisa.cameron@unimelb.edu.au] (a), Xin Meng [xin.meng@anu.edu.au] (*,b), Dandan Zhang [ddzhang@nsd.pku.edu.cn] (c)

Keywords Charitable fundraising; Field experiment; Altruism; Image motivation Abstract Given the replacement of cash with cell phone payments, people who are asked to donate to charity can easily promise a donation but delay the transfer until a later date. This may be a way to get out of the ask-situation with a positive image while maintaining the flexibility not to donate. This study explores whether charities can make people keep their promises by making such promises more explicit and more formal. In a door-to-door fund-raising field experiment, we vary the strength of the promise that donors make. Besides a control group where people can promise to donate, we apply two treatment groups. In the first treatment, donors are asked to verbally pledge a precise amount. In a second treatment, this amount is in addition put on paper with the solicitor's signature added. Both treatments are aimed at making it morally more expensive not to keep promises. Our results show that: (1) the majority of people do not follow through on their promise to donate; (2) donors who pledge an explicit amount more often keep their promise. The more formal the commitment, the closer the amount donated is to the amount promised; (3) many participants refuse to pledge a donation amount when asked, and those who refuse donate significantly less. Author Affiliation: (a) University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics, Rolighedsvej 23, Frederiksberg C 1958, Denmark (b) University of Groningen, EEF, P. O. Box 800, Groningen 9700 AV, the Netherlands * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 21 December 2020; Revised 8 August 2022; Accepted 18 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] This study has been pre-registered in the AEA RCT Registry (AEARCTR-0001759). The article has greatly benefited from constructive comments by the editors and two anonymous reviewers. We gratefully acknowledge the Groningen Experimental Economics Laboratory (GrEELab) and the Markets & Sustainability signature area for financial support. We thank Johannes Abeler, Maja Adena, Marco Castillo, Ragan Petrie, Michael Price, David Reiley, Gert-Jan Romensen as well as audiences at the WZB Workshop on Recent Advances in the Economics of Philanthropy and ESA World Meetings 2018 for valuable discussions and comments. Data, code, and materials are publicly available at https://osf.io/3vtq8. Byline: Toke R. Fosgaard [tf@ifro.ku.dk] (a), Adriaan R. Soetevent [a.r.soetevent@rug.nl] (*,b)

Keywords Religion; Attitude; Prejudice; Vocational training Abstract We study the potential for pleasant and cooperative contact to reduce prejudice between religious groups in India. We randomly assign Hindu and Muslim participants into groups, in which they interact over the course of a week-long vocational training program. A novel feature of our study is that all of the participants were women. We find that intergroup contact reduces the prejudice of both Hindu and Muslim participants toward members of the other religion one week after the training program concluded. While we find that most of the positive effect of intergroup contact on reducing prejudice dissipates after six months, effects on Hindu attitudes toward Muslims are persistent. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Economic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, India (b) Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 15 December 2021; Revised 20 June 2022; Accepted 26 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] We thank Etienne Gangnon, Seth Green, Jun Gu, Pushkar Maitra, Ray Miller, Ingrid Nielsen, Abby Zhang, the anonymous reviewers and participants in seminars at Monash University and the University of Tasmania, the Asian Polmeth VIII/ASQPS IX Conference, the WEAI Virtual International Conference, the 12th Workshop on the Economics of Health and Wellbeing in Hepburn Springs, Australia and the 16th Australasian Development Economics Workshop for helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. The usual disclaimer applies. We thank the Indian Council for Social Science Research, New Delhi and Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur for funding this project. Ethical clearance for this project was received from the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur Ethical clearance committee, with IEC Communication No: IITK/IEC/20I6-17/14. This study is preregistered at the AEA RCT Registry (AEA pre-registration ID: AEARCTR-0006608). Byline: Surya Nath Maiti (a), Debayan Pakrashi (a), Sarani Saha (a), Russell Smyth [russell.smyth@monash.edu] (b,*)

Keywords Air Pollution; Comprehensive Air-quality Index (CAI); Stability of Preferences; Risk Preference Abstract We empirically investigate whether exposure to air pollution alters an individual's risk preference. We utilize South Korean individual-level panel data, which contains information on risk preferences, locations, and interview dates. By exploiting the within-individual variation in risk preference and exposure to air pollution on the interview day, we find that a higher level of air pollution is associated with a lower probability of having a risk-loving preference. We also find that the impact of air pollution on risk preference is mostly transitory and contemporary. Author Affiliation: (a) Sookmyung Women's University, 100 Cheongpa-ro 47-gil, Yongsan-gu, Seoul, 04310, Korea (b) Korea Development Institute, 263 Namsejong-ro, Sejong-si 30149, Korea * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 23 February 2021; Revised 13 August 2022; Accepted 16 August 2022 (footnote)â° We thank the editor and the anonymous referees for their constructive suggestions that helped us to improve this paper. We are also grateful to the participants at the KDI Brown Bag Seminar, the 2021 Korean Labor Economic Association (KLEA) Summer Conference, and Yonsei Economics Department Seminar for their valuable comments. Byline: WooRam Park [woorpark@sookmyung.ac.kr] (a,*), Yongmi Kim [yongmikim82@kdi.re.kr] (b)

Keywords Information; Uncertainty; Sentiments; Bayesian learning; Financial markets Abstract In this paper, I propose a novel way to model sentiments in asset prices. Under this new representation, sentiments, or animal spirits, are sparked by exogenous shocks to beliefs, but feed on the uncertainty generated by imperfect information. Sentiments cause expectations to deviate from optimal, information-based estimates, with their magnitude depending on the amount of uncertainty: the higher the uncertainty, the larger the scope for psychological attitudes to affect expectations. Armed with this framework, I investigate the role of uncertainty on the transmission channel from sentiment shocks to prices in a market with imperfect information and Bayesian agents. The main result that emerges is that the source of noise generating uncertainty, whether fundamental or informational, has important consequences for the effect of sentiments. Specifically, while more informational noise always amplifies the impact of psychological shocks on prices, more fundamental noise can actually reduce such impact, depending on the elasticity of sentiments to uncertainty. This result implies that, for example, noise traders in stock markets can actually reduce the relevance of animal spirits for asset prices. Author Affiliation: Economics, School of Social Sciences, The University of Manchester, Arthur Lewis Building, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, United Kingdom * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 3 March 2021; Revised 9 June 2022; Accepted 16 August 2022 (footnote)1 I would like to thank two anonymous refereees and the Associate Editor for their constructive comments. Byline: Michele Berardi (*,1)

Keywords longevity expectations; private information; health behaviours; forgone medical treatment; health capital; SHARE; Europe; instrumental variables Abstract Longevity expectations (LE) are subjective assessments of future health status that can influence a number of individual health protective decisions. This is especially true during a pandemic such as COVID-19, as the risk of ill health depends more than ever on such protective decisions. This paper examines the causal effect of LE on some protective health behaviors and a number of decisions regarding forgoing health care. We use data from the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe, and we draw on an instrumental variable strategy exploiting individual level information on parental age at death. Consistent with the too healthy to be sick hypothesis, we find that individuals, exhibiting higher expected longevity, are more likely to engage in protective behaviours, and are less likely to forgo medical treatment. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in LE increases the probability to comply always with social distancing by 0.6%, to meet people less often by 0.4% and decreases the probability to forgo any medical treatment by 0.6%. Our estimates vary depending on supply side restrictions influencing the availability of health care, as well as individual characteristics such as gender and the presence of pre-existing health conditions. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova, Italy (b) Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), IZA Bonn & CESIfo Munich, London, UK (c) Department of Economics and Finance, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Italy * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 10 January 2022; Revised 9 August 2022; Accepted 11 August 2022 Byline: Martina Celidoni [martina.celidoni@unipd.it] (*,a), Joan Costa-Font (b), Luca Salmasi (c)

Keywords Devolution; National Health Service (NHS); Private health care; Private health insurance; Health system satisfaction; Health care quality Abstract Government decentralisation also called 'government devolution' (GD) can provide an alternative to the 'build in' accountability mechanism of markets by influencing both the choice as well as the perceived quality of public versus private health care. To test this hypothesis, this paper exploits the gradual decentralisation of the political stewardship of the Spanish National Health System (NHS) using a difference-in-differences design. We find that GD (abandoning centralised governance) increases the choice and quality of (measured by the preference for, perceptions of, and satisfaction with) public health care (NHS) compared to private health care. Consistently, we also find that the GD reduces the uptake of private health insurance among higher income and education groups. These effects are mainly driven by improvements in health care quality as well as policy innovation and diffusion. Author Affiliation: (a) London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), CESIfo & IZA, Houghton Street, WC2A 2AE, London, England, UK (b) Institute of Economic Analysis (IAE-CSIC), Barcelona School of Economics, MOVE, and IZA, Campus UAB, Bellaterra 08193, Spain * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 13 September 2021; Revised 11 July 2022; Accepted 15 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell acknowledges financial support through the grant PID2020-114251GB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/50110 0 01103, Severo Ochoa Program of Centers of Excellence & Generalitat de Catalunya SGR1359. Byline: Joan Costa-Font [j.costa-font@lse.ac.uk] (a,*), Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell [ada.ferrer@iae.csic.es] (b,*)

Keywords Markets and morality; Trust and trustworthiness; E-commerce; Reputation system; Endogenous preferences; Multiple sequential games Abstract Markets may shape trust and trustworthiness. In this paper, we first report results from a one-shot trust game conducted in a lab-in-the-field experiment with villagers in a rural county in northern China. Experimental results suggest that the experience as online market sellers improves individuals' level of trustworthiness. To provide more rigorous causal evidence and insights on the underlying mechanisms, we then conducted a laboratory experiment, in which subjects played an infinitely repeated market game with asymmetric information; both before and after the market game, subjects made choices in a one-shot trust game. We do not find that the ex-post choices in the trust game differ between those playing the market game and those conducting a real-effort task instead, except that when the market game does not have a reputation system, buyers become less trustworthy afterward--adding a voluntary reputation system similar to the real-world online rating system help mitigate such a detrimental effect. Author Affiliation: (a) Institute of State Economy, Nankai University, China (b) School of Economics, Nankai University, China (c) School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technology University, Singapore (d) The Laboratory for Economic Behaviors and Policy Simulation, Nankai University, China * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 12 November 2020; Revised 8 November 2021; Accepted 29 June 2022 Byline: Wenbo Zou (a,d), Jinjie Wang [wangjinjie@nankai.edu.cn] (b,*), Jubo Yan (c)

Keywords Neanderthals; Neanderthal extinction; Competitive exclusion; Homo sapiens; Networks; Social structure; Hunting and gathering Abstract This paper presents an alternative social/economic explanation for the Neanderthals' demise along similar lines with the competitive exclusion principle. We represent individuals as network nodes such that each link corresponds to an acquaintanceship between the respective nodes. We rely on the findings that Sapiens were more socially developed compared to Neanderthals. Running individual-based simulations under the assumption that Sapiens initially lived in larger and more connected groups, we illustrate how the two species' social structures might have further evolved in opposite directions and how such an evolution might have favored Sapiens in their competition against Neanderthals. Author Affiliation: (a) ADA University, Azerbaijan (b) Independent Researcher, Netherlands (c) Bilkent University, Turkey Article History: Received 25 August 2021; Revised 27 June 2022; Accepted 18 July 2022 Byline: Kerim Keskin [kkeskin@ada.edu.az] (a), Kadir Özgür (b), Çagri Saglam (c)

Keywords Expert forecast; Behavioral economics; Survival analysis; Panel estimation; Global financial crisis Abstract Each person's characteristics may influence that person's behaviors and outcomes. This study builds and uses a new database to estimate experts' performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. Our study classifies experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts' inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. The study finds that an expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation. Author Affiliation: (a) Research Department, Bank of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel (b) Center for Financial Development and Stability, Henan University, Kaifeng, China * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 1 November 2020; Revised 19 June 2022; Accepted 22 June 2022 (footnote)[white star] This paper does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Israel. The authors thank Philippe Andrade, Lahcen Bounader, Itamar Caspi, Paul Fontanier, Xavier Gabaix, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Ori Heffetz, Ben Schreiber, Michel Strawczynski, Matthias Weber, and Osnat Zohar, participants at the 2021 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, the Bank of Israel and Tsinghua University research seminars for their valuable comments. Byline: Jonathan Benchimol [jonathan.benchimol@boi.org.il] (a), Makram El-Shagi [makram.el-shagi@cfds.henu.education] (*,b), Yossi Saadon [yosis@boi.org.il] (a)

Keywords Condorcet jury theorem; Ambiguity aversion; Group decision making; Deliberation; Group size Abstract Earlier work has shown that in a 'costly attention' setup -- where group members incur costs to pay attention to informative signals - smaller group sizes generally result in more accurate decisions, contrary to the Condorcet jury theorem. This result obtains whether group members deliberate or whether they vote secretly without deliberations. Moreover, when group sizes are small, barring deliberations leads to more accurate decision-making, while allowing deliberations is optimal in larger groups. In the current paper, I analyze a costly attention setup where some group members are ambiguity averse (ambiguity exists about the other group members' likelihood of paying attention) and find that groups larger than a threshold make the best decisions. Thus, this supports Condorcet's conclusion about the benefits of a larger group, but under very different conditions. Implications for whether to allow or bar deliberations in these large committees are more nuanced and depend on whether attentive members may be sure of making the correct judgment. The results yield policy implications regarding optimal committee size and on whether committees should allow or bar deliberations. Author Affiliation: Centre for International Trade and Development, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067, India Article History: Received 19 February 2021; Revised 12 July 2022; Accepted 13 July 2022 (footnote)â° I thank an anonymous referee for very helpful suggestions. Byline: Brishti Guha [brishtiguha@gmail.com]

Keywords Collective longevity swap; Economic pricing; Principal-Agent-Model; Longevity risk transfer Abstract To mitigate the hedger's longevity risk exposure, this paper proposes a collective longevity swap between a reinsurer (hedge provider) and a group of hedgers (pension plans and annuity providers), and an economic framework to price longevity risk and longevity swaps. Combining the appealing features of two widely discussed longevity swaps, i.e., the indemnity swap and index-based swap, the collective longevity swap requires that reinsurer's payments are based on the longevity risk of the aggregate portfolio of all hedgers, whereas each hedger could receive indemnity payments on their own portfolio. In a general principal-agent pricing model under the incomplete market setting, we determine the optimal risk premiums and hedge rates that maximize the reinsurer's expected profit under a set of the hedgers' participation constraints. We find that, in a competitive market, the proposed collective swap could lead to a higher expected profit for the reinsurer than the indemnity and the index-based swap, and simultaneously improve the benefits of the majority of hedgers without worsening the benefits of the rest. Finally, using a stochastic multi-population mortality model and real-world mortality data, a series of numerical analyses are performed to verify the theoretical findings. Author Affiliation: (a) Institute of Insurance Science, Ulm University, Germany (b) Department of Economics and Finance, Gordon S. Lang School of Business, University of Guelph, Canada * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 23 December 2020; Revised 15 June 2022; Accepted 21 July 2022 Byline: An Chen [an.chen@uni-ulm.de] (a), Hong Li [lihong@uguelph.ca] (b), Mark Schultze [mark.schultze@uni-ulm.de] (*,a)

Keywords Gift competition; Multilateral gift exchange; Reciprocation Abstract Bilateral gift exchange is often shown to benefit the gift-giver, but the effect is largely unknown when gift competition exists in a multilateral interaction. This paper studies gift competition in two-giver-one-recipient interaction based on a real-effort task on the recipient side. We find that exogenously introducing gift competition opportunity benefits the recipients and hurts the givers. This is because recipients respond more to the relative than the absolute size of the gifts under limited resources (i.e., time in our case). Explanations based on recipients' preference change and givers' erroneous beliefs are investigated and excluded. Author Affiliation: (a) School of Labor and Human Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China (b) Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing, China * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 16 August 2021; Revised 6 July 2022; Accepted 21 July 2022 Byline: Zeyang Chen (a), Wanchuan Lin (b), Juanjuan Meng [jumeng@gsm.pku.edu.cn] (b,*)

Keywords COVID-19; Coronavirus; Lockdown; Culture; Evolutionary game theory Highlights * We build an evolutionary game model to study the COVID-19 policy response. * The adoption dynamics of alternative strategies can be path-dependent. * The selection of opposite equilibria explains the occurrence of polarized policy responses. * Asymmetric equilibria where experts and policymakers chose opposing strategies can be attractive. * We illustrate the conditions for cyclical dynamics in which players continuously tune their approach. Abstract We build an evolutionary game-theoretic model of the interaction between policymakers and experts in shaping the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Players' decisions concern two alternative strategies of pandemic management: a 'hard' approach, enforcing potentially unpopular measures such as strict confinement orders, and a 'soft' approach, based upon voluntary and short-lived social distancing. Policymakers' decisions may also rely upon expert advice. Unlike experts, policymakers are sensitive to a public consensus incentive that makes lifting restrictions as soon as possible especially desirable. This incentive may conflict with the overall goal of mitigating the effects of the pandemic, leading to a typical policy dilemma. We show that the selection of strategies may be path-dependent, as their initial distribution is a crucial driver of players' choices. Contingent on cultural factors and the epidemiological conditions, steady states in which both types of players unanimously endorse the strict strategy can coexist with others where experts and policymakers agree on the soft strategy, depending on the initial conditions. The model can also lead to attractive asymmetric equilibria where experts and policymakers endorse different strategies, or to cyclical dynamics where the shares of adoption of strategies oscillate indefinitely around a mixed strategy equilibrium. This multiplicity of equilibria can explain the coexistence of contrasting pandemic countermeasures observed across countries in the first wave of the outbreak. Our results suggest that cross-country differences in the COVID-19 policy response need not be the effect of poor decision making. Instead, they can endogenously result from the interplay between policymakers and experts incentives under the local social, cultural and epidemiological conditions. Author Affiliation: (a) University of Sassari, Department of Economics and Management, Sassari, Italy (b) Sapienza University of Rome, Italy (c) IZA, Bonn, Germany (d) DiSFiPEQ, University of Chieti-Pescara, Pescara, Italy (e) metaLAB (at) Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA (f) University of Naples 'Federico II', Department of Law and Economics, Naples, Italy (g) Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics, Technical University of Ostrava, Ostrava, Czech Republic * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 26 February 2021; Revised 14 May 2022; Accepted 25 June 2022 (footnote)[white star] Please replace the current acknowledgment with the following statement: 'We are grateful to two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments and efforts toward improving our manuscript. We are indebted to Valentina Rotondi for useful discussions on an earlier draft of the paper. We thank Andrea Caravaggio for excellent research assistance. Mauro Sodini gratefully acknowledges the support of the Czech Science Foundation (GACR) under project 20-16701S and VÅ B-TU Ostrava under the SGS project SP2022/4.' Byline: Angelo Antoci [antoci@uniss.it] (a), Fabio Sabatini [fabio.sabatini@uniroma1.it] (*,b,c), Pier Luigi Sacco [pierluigi.sacco@unich.it] (d,e), Mauro Sodini [mauro.sodini@unina.it] (f,g)

Keywords Inequality of opportunity; Health; Life cycle; Adverse early-life conditions; Decomposition Abstract This paper explores the evolution of inequality of opportunity in the prevalence of chronic diseases along the life cycle and across different birth cohorts for individuals aged 50 or older and residing in 13 European countries. We adopt an ex-ante parametric approach and rely on the dissimilarity index as our reference inequality metric. In addition to a commonly used set of circumstances, we pay particular attention to the role of adverse early-life conditions, such as the experience of harm and the quality of the relationship with parents. In order to quantify the relative importance of each circumstance, we apply the Shapley inequality decomposition method. Our results suggest that inequality of opportunity in health is not stable over the life cycle - it is generally lower at younger ages and then monotonically increases. Moreover, it varies between different birth cohorts and is generally higher for younger individuals than for older age groups. Finally, the contribution of adverse early life conditions ranges between 25% and 45%, which is comparable to the share of socio-economic circumstances but significantly higher than the relative contribution of other demographic characteristics, especially at younger ages. Author Affiliation: (a) European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy (b) Department of Law, Economics, and Cultures, Insubria University, Como, Italy * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 15 January 2022; Revised 15 July 2022; Accepted 18 July 2022 Byline: Matija Kovacic [matija.kovacic@ec.europa.eu] (*,a), Cristina Elisa Orso [cristinaelisa.orso@uninsubria.it] (b)

Keywords Strategic complementarities; Expectations; Adjustment speed; Similarity-based learning; Guessing games; Heuristics switching Abstract Experimental evidence shows that the rational expectations hypothesis fails to characterize the path to equilibrium after an exogenous shock when actions are strategic complements. Under identical shocks, however, repetition allows adaptive learning, so that inertia in adjustment should fade away with experience. If this finding proves to be robust, inertia in adjustment may be irrelevant among experienced agents. The conjecture in the literature is that inertia would still persist, perhaps indefinitely, in the presence of real-world complications such as nonidentical shocks. Herein, we empirically test the conjecture that the inertia in adjustment is more persistent if the shocks are nonidentical. For both identical and nonidentical shocks, we find persistent inertia and similar patterns of adjustment that can be explained by backward-looking expectation rules. Notably, refining these rules with similarity-based learning approach improves their predictive power. Author Affiliation: (a) Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, Berlin 10623, Germany (b) Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE UMR 5824, Ecully F-69130, France (c) Univ Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, GATE UMR 5824, Ecully F-69130, France * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 25 January 2020; Revised 24 May 2020; Accepted 25 May 2020 (footnote)[white star] This research was performed within the framework of the LABEX CORTEX (ANR-11-IDEX-007) operated by the French National Research Agency (ANR). The authors are thankful to the ANR-DFG joint grant for financial support (ANR-18-FRAL-0008-01 ASUR). We thank the editor and three anonymous referees for the valuable comments. This paper has benefited from insightful discussions with Kristen Cooper, Nobuyuki Hanaki, Frank Heinemann, Henry Schneider, Angela Sutan, Michael Waldman and with the participants to the Colloquium Monetary and Experimental Economics at TU-Berlin. We also acknowledge Quentin Thévenet and Maxim Frolov for providing help with the software programming. Byline: Muhammed Bulutay [mbulutay@diw.de] (*,a), Camille Cornand [cornand@gate.cnrs.fr] (b), Adam Zylbersztejn [zylbersztejn@gate.cnrs.fr] (c)

Keywords Financial fragility; Liquidity regulation; Laboratory experiments Abstract We report an experiment conducted to evaluate interactions between liquidity requirements and depositors' experiences with the banking system. Treatments consist of combinations of required liquidity levels and 'weak' or 'strong' background conditions, intended to induce stable histories of play (with few bank runs), or unstable histories of play (where bank runs are common). Experimental results suggest that both increased liquidity levels and a stable history of play improve the incidence of coordination on the Pareto-preferred no-run outcome. Nevertheless, even with an unstable history, non-degenerate no-run outcomes occur quite reliably with high liquidity requirements. Author Affiliation: Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, United States * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 10 December 2018; Revised 28 August 2019; Accepted 4 September 2019 (footnote)[white star] This paper was presented at the 2017 Workshop on Theoretical and Experimental Macroeconomics, in Stony Brook New York, at the 2017 Society for Experimental Finance Conference in Richmond Virginia, in a session at the 2018 Southern Economic Association meetings in Washington D.C and in a Virginia Commonwealth University School of Business faculty seminar. The usual disclaimer applies. Experimental data and a series of unpublished appendices are available at https://sites.google.com/a/vcu.edu/dddavis. Financial assistance from the National Science Foundation (SES 1426980) is gratefully acknowledged. Byline: Douglas D. Davis [dddavis@vcu.edu] (*), Oleg Korenok, John P. Lightle

Keywords Recession; Effort; Experiments; Inflation Highlights * We design an experiment that allows us to test if wages will remain rigid after a recession. * Workers reduce effort after a nominal wage cut. * Inflation has an effect on worker effort, because real wage cuts are not as noticeable under inflation. * Employers have incorrect beliefs about the effect of wage cuts. Abstract Many economies exhibit downward wage rigidity. Surveys of managers indicate that employers hold wages rigid because they believe morale will suffer after a wage cut. Otherwise, there is little evidence for how employers' beliefs contribute to wage rigidity and whether those beliefs are accurate. Using an experiment, we demonstrate that effort falls after workers experience a wage cut. Despite this partial confirmation of the Bewley (1999) morale theory, half of the employers in our experiment cut wages and lose money as a result. Under nominal inflation, real wage cuts do not have a significant effect on effort. Author Affiliation: (a) Brock School of Business, Samford University, 800 Lakeshore Drive, Birmingham, AL, USA (b) George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MSN 1B2, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 24 October 2019; Revised 23 September 2020; Accepted 24 September 2020 (footnote)1 We thank seminar participants at Chapman University, the Workshop on Experimental Macroeconomics, and the Economic Science Association meetings. Our paper was improved by conversations with Misha Freer, Steven Gjerstad, Cesar Martinelli, Ryan Oprea, and Arno Riedl, and by comments from anonymous referees. Funding was provided by the National Science Foundation SES 1628911. Byline: Joy Buchanan [jbuchan1@samford.edu] (*,1,a), Daniel Houser [dhouser@gmu.edu] (b)

Keywords Forward Guidance; Heterogeneous Beliefs; Bounded Rationality; Central Bank Learning Abstract This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of central bank forward guidance when central bank credibility is endogenous. We take a stylized New Keynesian model with an occasionally binding effective lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates and heterogeneous and boundedly rational households. Central bank forecasts follow a bivariate VAR, not taking into account the time-variation in the distribution of aggregate expectations. In this framework, we extend the central bank's toolkit to allow for the publication of its own forecasts (Delphic guidance) and the commitment to a future path of the nominal interest rate (Odyssean guidance). We find that both Delphic and Odyssean forward guidance increase the likelihood of recovery from a liquidity trap. Even though Odyssean guidance alone appears more powerful in inducing recovery, we find it to increase ex post macroeconomic volatility and thus reduce welfare. Author Affiliation: (a) De Nederlandsche Bank, Westeinde 1, 1017ZN Amsterdam, the Netherlands (b) University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands (c) Bank of Canada, Canada (d) Tinbergen Institute, the Netherlands * Corresponding author at: De Nederlandsche Bank, Westeinde 1, 1017ZN Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Article History: Received 4 April 2019; Revised 27 December 2019; Accepted 25 June 2020 (footnote)[white star] We wish to thank Marco Del Negro, Paul Levine, Joep Lustenhouwer, Domenico Massaro, Bruce Preston and Micheal Woodford and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and discussions. Also, we thank seminar participants at the European Central Bank, De Nederlandsche Bank and the University of Amsterdam, as well as conference participants at the 21st Workshop on the Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, the 22nd Conference Computing in Economics and Finance, the 12th Dynare Conference, the 4th meeting of the German Network for New Economic Dynamics, the 2016 MacFin Robots Workshop in Como, Italy, the 22nd Spring Meeting of Young Economists, the 72nd European Meeting of the Econometric Society and the Conference on Expectations in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in 2017 for comments and helpful discussions. Lastly, we are also thankful for financial support from the EU FP7 project 'Integrated Macro-Financial Modeling for Robust Policy Design' (MACFINROBODS, grant 612796). The views expressed do neither reflect the official position of De Nederlandsche Bank and the Eurosystem, nor those of the Bank of Canada. Byline: Gavin Goy [g.w.goy@dnb.nl] (*,a,d), Cars Hommes (b,c), Kostas Mavromatis (a,b)

Keywords Charitable giving; Field experiments; Matching donations; Personalization Abstract We study a form of threshold matching in fundraising where donations above a certain threshold are topped up with a fixed amount. We show theoretically that threshold matching can induce crowding in if appropriately personalized. In a field experiment, we explore how thresholds should be chosen depending on past donations. The optimal choice of thresholds is rather bold, approximately 75% above past donations. Additionally, we explore how thresholds should be set for new donors as a function of their personal characteristics and demonstrate the benefits of personalization as opposed to setting a general threshold that applies to all recipients of a fundraising call. Author Affiliation: (a) WZB Berlin, Reichpietschufer 50, D-10785 Berlin (b) UCL London, Department of Economics, Gower St, London WC1E 6BT * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 8 November 2020; Revised 24 March 2022; Accepted 11 May 2022 (footnote)[white star] We thank all those at Dresden Opera and actori for making this project possible. We thank René Bekkers, Johannes Diederich, Daniel Hungerman, Johannes Lohse, Ragan Petrie, Kimberley Scharf, Paul Smeets, Mark Ottoni-Wilhelm, participants at the BBE workshop 2018, workshop Recent Advances in the Economics of Philanthropy 2018, ASSA 2019, EEA-ESEM 2019, VfS Jahrestagung 2019, Workshop Social Norms in Freiberg 2019, Science of Philanthropy Conference 2020, and seminar participants at the University of Heidelberg for helpful suggestions and comments. We are grateful to Katharina Dorn for excellent research assistance, and many others for help in conducting the field experiment. Financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft through CRC TRR 190 (project number 280092119) is gratefully acknowledged. This paper has been screened to ensure that no confidential information is revealed. Byline: Maja Adena [Maja.Adena@wzb.eu] (a,*), Steffen Huck [Steffen.Huck@wzb.eu] (a,b)

Keywords Bimonetary economy; Dollarization; Central bank; Monetary policy; Experiment; Money Abstract Partial currency substitution typically occurs in small open economies amid economic crises. Often, the foreign currency continues to circulate even after macroeconomic stability returns. Central banks have responded by applying de-dollarization policies. We extend the model in Matsuyama et al. (1993) and implement an experiment to study the effectiveness of two policy instruments: (1) taxes on domestic transactions in foreign currency and (2) a reduction in the storage cost of local currency. We contribute to the theoretical literature by characterizing a new circulation regime for small open economies where agents use the foreign currency solely for international trade and settle domestic transactions exclusively in local currency. Our experimental evidence suggests that both taxes and storage cost reductions can foster de-dollarization as they reduce foreign currency acceptance and reinforce the use of local currency. However, we find that the impact of a reduction in the storage costs of the local currency is more significant and robust. It lowered the acceptance rate of foreign currency by more than 20 percentage points and increased the acceptance of local currency by more than 30 percentage points. On the other hand, the tax policy reduced foreign currency acceptance by a smaller amount and only for encounters with foreign agents. Author Affiliation: (a) Central Reserve Bank of Perú, Perú (b) University of California Santa Cruz (c) Universidad del Pacífico * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 1 February 2020; Revised 1 February 2022; Accepted 16 May 2022 (footnote)[white star] We thank Justin Rietz, Daniel Friedman and the anonymous referees for their valuable comments. We are also grateful for feedback from attendants to the UCSC 2020 Experimental Workshop, BEEC 2020 and the 2019 BCRP Annual Meeting. We thank superb assistance from Marco Gutierrez, Paula Armas, and Martín Sanchez. We thank Elijah Pandolfo and Marco Gutierrez for developing the software for the experiment. The views expressed in this paper are our own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru. All errors are our own. Byline: Johar Arrieta Vidal (a), David Florián Hoyle (a), Kristian López Vargas [klopezva@ucsc.edu] (b,c,*), Valeria Morales Vásquez (a)

Keywords Inflation expectations; Social comparison; Inequality Abstract Inflation expectations elicited in surveys have been found to exhibit large dispersion across individuals. Although several explanations have been proposed, none fully explain this puzzle. We explore in this paper a new behavioral factor: social comparison. Using original survey data, we find that respondents who feel they are falling behind compared to their peers report significantly and substantially higher inflation expectations. We argue that this result is consistent with an experience based belief formation model in which those unable to 'keep up with the Joneses' overweight the high prices of 'aspiration' goods they are unable to purchase. Author Affiliation: (a) Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY, USA (b) Department of Economics, University of Milan, Via Conservatorio 7, Milano 20122, Italy (c) Department of Economics and Management, University of Padua, Via del Santo 33, Padua 35121, Italy * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 6 February 2020; Revised 15 July 2020; Accepted 20 July 2020 (footnote)[white star] We are grateful to Rachel Pomerantz for dedicated research assistance. We thank Ulrike Malmendier for helpful comments. We also thank seminar and conference participants at the 9th meeting of the Southern European Experimentalist Team (SEET) in Lecce (Italy). The views expressed do not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve system. Declarations of interest: none. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Byline: Olivier Armantier [olivier.armantier@ny.frb.org] (*,a), Antonio Filippin [antonio.filippin@unimi.it] (b), Michael Neubauer [michael_neubauer@brown.edu] (a), Luca Nunziata [luca.nunziata@unipd.it] (c)

Keywords Offshoring; Subjective well-being; Immigration; Electoral cycles Abstract Using long panels of industry-specific offshoring information and subjectively reported well-being datasets mainly from Germany, which is also supported by datasets from the UK and Australia, this paper aims to investigate the relationship between offshoring and workers' subjective well-being in the source country. We employ panel data fixed-effects models with time-variant personality measures and industry-specific measures to alleviate the bias stemming from the non-random sorting of individuals in industries. Our findings suggest that offshoring negatively relates to workers' subjective well-being. The result is unexceptionally consistent across Germany, the UK, and Australia, and the effect is larger in business services and among high-skilled workers. We extensively discuss how contextual 'fear-factors' prevailing in the source countries interact with the angst generated by the negative framing of offshoring. To single out such angst, we first show that objective and subjective job security concerns, job characteristics, and labor market conditions only marginally relate to the well-being effect of offshoring. Then, we investigate how the effect of offshoring on well-being is amplified by a larger set of contextual factors pertaining to temporary economic shocks, negative narratives about offshoring during electoral cycles, partisan political preferences, and high immigration rates. Finally, we show that a recent skill upgrade significantly diminishes the negative effect of offshoring on well-being. Author Affiliation: (a) University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, Vasagatan 1, Box: 640, E5, Gothenburg, 405 30, Sweden (b) School of Business, Society and Engineering, Mälardalen University, P. O. Box 883, Västerås, S-721 23, Sweden (c) Business School of Örebro University, Sweden (d) Universidad Antonio de Nebrija, Spain * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 11 March 2021; Revised 21 May 2022; Accepted 23 May 2022 Byline: Alpaslan Akay [alpaslan.akay@economics.gu.se] (a,d,*), Selen Savsin [selen.savsin@mdu.se] (b,c)

Keywords Availability; Beliefs; Biases; Inference; Inattention; Limited recall; Underweighting Abstract Introspection and abundant field and lab evidence indicate that people often infer population characteristics from the data available. When people lack records and are not given feedback, however, they might underweight some of such data, perhaps due to inattention or memory failures. In this paper we use lab experiments and a parsimonious analytical framework to explore inference when limited attention and memory lead to (extreme) data underweighting, the relevance of such phenomenon, and whether people exhibit different patterns of underweighting. In our experiment, subjects arguably face a simple problem of inference. Even so, we find statistically significant evidence of underweighting. Yet subjects are heterogeneous: some infer as if they underweighted very little while others seem to underweight a lot of the signals; these patterns correlate with the subject's CRT score, an individual measure of reflectiveness. Further, our classification analysis also suggests that some subjects exhibit primacy effects in their patterns of underweighting, while others are better characterized by recency effects. When subjects get some experience and their payoffs are non-ambiguous, further, we find that underweighting is reduced, but only if the inference problem is simple enough. Author Affiliation: (a) Institute of Public Goods and Policies (IPP), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), C/ Albasanz, 26--28, Madrid 28037, Spain (b) Independent researcher * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 15 September 2020; Revised 7 February 2022; Accepted 11 May 2022 (footnote)[white star] We are grateful to Hubert Kiss and Juan César Palomino for helpful comments and suggestions. We also gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness through the research project ECO2017-82449-P. Byline: Adrián Caballero (b), Raúl López-Pérez [rlopezperez@gmail.com] (a,*)

Keywords Value of time; BDM; Information technology Abstract Smartphones can lower the disutility of waiting by increasing productivity and making time pass more pleasantly. We elicit the compensation required by subjects to wait for 30 minutes, alone in an empty room, under four different conditions that varied access to the subject's smartphone. Compared to the treatment where subjects had full use of their phone, we find that they required 24% percent more to wait with the audio features of the phone remaining but the phone physically locked away, 48% percent more to wait with only an FM radio, and 79% percent more to wait in a quiet room. We find little correlation between a subject's wages and her offers, emphasizing the importance of heterogeneity in the value of time that is based on context rather than income. Author Affiliation: School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University, Hulbert Hall, Pullman WA 99164, United States * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 25 June 2021; Revised 25 April 2022; Accepted 13 May 2022 (footnote)1 Associate Professor (footnote)2 Doctoral candidate. We thank Karina Gallardo, Vic Adamowicz, Patrick Lloyd-Smith, session participants at the 2021 Society for Benefit Cost Analysis meeting, the associate editor and two referees for helpful comments and suggestions on the paper. Byline: Mary Tiana Randriamaro [mary.randriamaro@wsu.edu] (2), Joseph Cook [joe.cook@wsu.edu] (*,1)