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Whether the earthquake occurrences follow a Poisson process model is a widely debated issue. The Poisson process model has great conceptual appeal and those who rejected it under pressure of empirical evidence have tried to restore it by trying to identify main events and suppressing foreshocks and aftershocks. The approach here is to estimate the density functions for the waiting times of the future earthquakes. For this purpose, the notion of Gram-Charlier series which is a standard method for the estimation of density functions has been extended based on the orthogonality properties of certain polynomials such as Laguerre and Legendre. It is argued that it is best to estimate density functions in the context of a particular null hypothesis. Using the results of estimation a simple test has been designed to establish that earthquakes do not occur as independent events, thus violating one of the postulates of a Poisson process model. Both methodological and utilitarian aspects are dealt with.

Very little work has been done in generating alternatives to the Poisson process model. The work reported here deals with alternatives to the Poisson process model for the earthquakes and checks them using empirical data and the statistical hypothesis testing apparatus. The strategy used here for generating hypotheses is to compound the Poisson process. The parameter of the Poisson process is replaced by a random variable having prescribed density function. The density functions used are gamma, chi and extended (gamma/chi). The original distribution is then averaged out with respect to these density functions. For the compound Poisson processes the waiting time distributions for the future events are derived. As the parameters for the various statistical models for earthquake occurrences are not known, the problem is basically of composite hypothesis testing. One way of designing a test is to estimate these parameters and use them as true values. Momentmatching is used here to estimate the parameters. The results of hypothesis testing using data from Hindukush and North East India are presented.

The present study is aimed at working out the possible resistivity anomalies associated with hydrocarbon bearing structures. The anomaly due to a typical two-dimensional anticlinal structure filled with hydrocarbon, and overlying a basement of infinite resistivity was computed using the conformal mapping technique. A more realistic and elaborate model, which could not be simplified by conformal mapping, was studied using the finite element method. This model consisted of a two-dimensional anticlinal structure filled with oil or gas-embedded midway in a homogeneous layer which itself overlies a half-space of infinite resistivity, the electrical resistivity of the hydrocarbon bearing structure being simulated as infinite.

The paper presents values of partial geoidal parametersN, ξ and η which define the departure of the geoid from the reference spheroid, at 1° intervals over the Indian subcontinent. These values represent contributions arising from the gravity anomaly data over the entire earth's surface, except for that from a 6°×6° element around the immediate neighbourhood of the point. Complete values of these parameters at a point can be obtained simply by adding to these partial values, contributions from the 6°×6° element circumscribing that point. The objective of the study was to provide a ready basis for updating the geoidal parameters at the initial reference point as and when the density and quality of local gravity data around it improve. These computations once made, would also facilitate calculation of geoidal parameters at a fairly large number of astro-geodetic stations apart from that at the initial reference point, which should lead to considerably more precise value of the absolute datum of the Indian geodetic dasystem.

Anticipating the scale invariance of rock fracturing processes, we applied Keilis-Borok’s algorithm M8, originally designed for identifying times of increased probability (TIPS) of occurrence of strong earthquakes (M < 8.0), retrospectively to Koyna earthquakes which occurred in the region after the impoundment of the Shivaji Sagar reservoir in 1962. The algorithm which enables diagnosis of TIPS from the 7th year onwards after the commencement of the earliest available data set showed that the 5.3 magnitude earthquake of 20 September 1980 indeed occurred within a time of increased probability. This result, apart from its potential application to recognizing future TIPS in the region, points to selfsimilarity between the premonitory patterns of natural and induced earthquakes and to scale-invariant nature of their processes. Further, a typical precursory rise in seismicity followed by a relative quiescence was also found to precede all the three larger earthquakes of the sequence.

Seismicity of the Himalayan arc lying within the limits shown in figure 1 and covering the period 1964 to 1987 was scanned using M8 algorithm with a view to identifying the times of increased probabilities (TIPs) of the occurrence of earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 7·0, during the period 1970 to 1987. In this period, TIPs occupy 18% of the space time considered. One of these precedes the only earthquake in this magnitude range which occurred during the period. Two numerical parameters used in the algorithm, namely the magnitude thresholds, had to be altered for the present study owing to incomplete data. Further monitoring of TIPs is however warranted, both for testing the predictive capability of this algorithm in the Himalayan region and for creating a base for the search of short-term precursors.

Analysis of teleseismicP-wave residuals observed at 15 seismograph stations operated in the Deccan volcanic province (DVP) in west central India points to the existence of a large, deep anomalous region in the upper mantle where the velocity is a few per cent higher than in the surrounding region. The seismic stations were operated in three deployments together with a reference station on precambrian granite at Hyderabad and another common station at Poona. The first group of stations lay along a west-northwesterly profile from Hyderabad through Poona to Bhatsa. The second group roughly formed an L-shaped profile from Poona to Hyderabad through Dharwar and Hospet. The third group of stations lay along a northwesterly profile from Hyderabad to Dhule through Aurangabad and Latur. Relative residuals computed with respect to Hyderabad at all the stations showed two basic features: a large almost linear variation from approximately +1s for teleseisms from the north to—1s for those from the southeast at the western stations, and persistance of the pattern with diminishing magnitudes towards the east. Preliminary ray-plotting and three-dimensional inversion of theP-wave residual data delineate the presence of a 600 km long approximately N−S trending anomalous region of high velocity (1–4% contrast) from a depth of about 100 km in the upper mantle encompassing almost the whole width of the DVP. Inversion ofP-wave relative residuals reveal the existence of two prominent features beneath the DVP. The first is a thick high velocity zone (1–4% faster) extending from a depth of about 100 km directly beneath most of the DVP. The second feature is a prominent low velocity region which coincides with the westernmost part of the DVP. A possible explanation for the observed coherent high velocity anomaly is that it forms the root of the lithosphere which coherently translates with the continents during plate motions, an architecture characteristic of precambrian shields. The low velocity zone appears to be related to the rift systems (anomaly 28, 65 Ma) which provided the channel for the outpouring of Deccan basalts at the close of the Cretaceous period.

This paper reports data pertaining to 90 local earthquakes recorded during 1984–86 using seismographs in arrays of 5–7 stations deployed near the Main Central Thrust between Bhagirathi and Alakhananda valleys. The results which are also compared with 162 earthquakes recorded in 1979–80 provide a local view that refines and complements information recorded at distant seismic stations.

The paper describes an algorithm for estimating the hypocentral coordinates and origin time of local earthquakes when the wave speed model to be employed is a layered one with dipping interfaces. A constrained least-squared error problem has been solved using the penalty function approach, in conjunction with the sequential unconstrained optimization technique of Fiacco and McCormick. Joint confidence intervals for the computed parameters are estimated using the approach of Bard for nonlinear problems. These results show that when a hypocentre lies outside the array of recording stations and head waves from a dipping interface are involved, then its inclination must be taken into account for dip angles exceeding 5°.