1. Development and validation of a new clinical prediction model of catheter-related thrombosis in cancer patients
- Author
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Lixi Li, Binliang Liu, Zongbi Yi, Jiani Wang, Xiuwen Guan, Wenna Wang, Yanfeng Wang, Fei Ma, Zhou Huang, Xiaoying Sun, Hong Li, Zhong Yuan, Hongnan Mo, Yixin Zeng, Xiyu Liu, and Junying Xie
- Subjects
Cancer Research ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Multivariate analysis ,Receiver operating characteristic ,business.industry ,Incidence (epidemiology) ,medicine.medical_treatment ,Cancer ,Retrospective cohort study ,Catheter related thrombosis ,medicine.disease ,Oncology ,Emergency medicine ,Cohort ,Drug delivery ,Medicine ,Prospective cohort study ,business ,Intensive care medicine ,Central venous catheter - Abstract
Background: The central venous catheter brings convenience for drug delivery and improving comfort for cancer patients, it also causes serious complications. The most common one is catheter-related thrombosis (CRT). This study aimed to evaluate the incidence and risk factors of CRT in cancer patients, and to develop an effective prediction model for CRT in cancer patients. Methods: The development of our prediction model was based on the data of a retrospective cohort (n=3131) from National Cancer Center. The validation of our prediction model was done in a prospective cohort from National Cancer Center (n=685) and a retrospective cohort from Hunan Cancer Hospital (n=61). The predictive accuracy and the discriminative ability were determined by the receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration plots. Findings: Multivariate analysis demonstrated that sex, cancer type, catheter type, position of the catheter tip, chemotherapy status, and antiplatelet/anticoagulation status at baseline were independent risk factors for CRT. The area under ROC of our prediction model was 0·741 (CI: 0·715-0·766) in the primary cohort; 0·754 (CI: 0·704-0.803) and 0·658 (CI: 0·470-0·845) in validation cohorts respectively. Good calibration and clinical impact were also shown in primary and validation cohorts. Interpretation: Our model is a novel prediction tool for CRT risk which helps to assigning cancer patients into high-risk or low-risk group of CRT accurately. Our model will be valuable for clinicians in decision making of thromboprophylaxis. Trial Registration: The protocol has been registered on ClinicalTrials.gov with the number of No: NCT03537339. Funding Statement: The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. Declaration of Interests: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest. Ethics Approval Statement: This study was approved by the Institutional Review Boards of Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences NCC201712029.
- Published
- 2020
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