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Background/Objectives : The aim was to develop a decision tree and a new prognostic tool to predict cancer-specific survival in patients with urothelial bladder cancer treated with radical cystectomy. Methods : A total of 11,834 patients with bladder cancer treated with radical cystectomy between 2004 and 2019 from the SEER database were randomly split into the derivation ( n = 7889) and validation cohorts ( n = 3945). Survival curves were estimated using conditional decision tree analysis. We used Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations for the treatment of missing values and the pec package to compare the predictive performance. We extracted data from our model following CHARMS and assessed the risk of bias and applicability with PROBAST. Results : A total of 4824 (41%) patients died during the follow-up period due to bladder cancer. A decision tree was made and 12 groups were obtained. Patients with a higher AJCC stage and older age have a worse prognosis. The risk groups were summarized into high, intermediate and low risk. The integrated Brier scores between 0 and 191 months for the bootstrap estimates of the prediction error are the lowest for our conditional survival tree (0.189). The model showed a low risk of bias and low concern about applicability. The results must be externally validated. Conclusions : Decision tree analysis is a useful tool with significant discrimination. With this tool, we were able to stratify patients into 12 subgroups and 3 risk groups with a low risk of bias and low concern about applicability.

Bladder cancer (BC) is an important cause of premature mortality (PM, <75 years). Spain has one of the highest BC mortality rates in Europe. The objective of this study was to analyse BC mortality trends between 1999 and 2018 in Spain. The study was based on data from the National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística-INE). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were calculated by sex and age group. A trend analysis was performed using Joinpoint regression models and years of potential life lost (YPLL). Mortality in men resulting from BC decreased in all age groups studied. This was not observed in women, for whom mortality only decreased in the ≥75 age group. Deaths due to BC occurred prematurely in 38.6% of men and in 23.8% of women, which indicated a greater impact on YPLL in men compared to women. Over the last 20 years, there has been a significant decrease in BC mortality rate, except in women under 75 years of age. Despite this temporal trend of decreasing mortality, BC continues to have a significant impact on YPLL, mainly in men. Given this context, it is important to direct more resources towards prevention and early diagnosis strategies to correct this situation.