1. Development and Multicenter Validation of a Novel Immune-Inflammation-Based Nomogram to Predict Survival in Western Resectable Gastric and Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma (GEA): The NOMOGAST.
- Author
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Salati, Massimiliano, De Ruvo, Nicola, Giglio, Mariano Cesare, Sorrentino, Lorena, Esposito, Giuseppe, Fenocchi, Sara, Cucciarrè, Giovanni, Serra, Francesco, Rossi, Elena Giulia, Vittimberga, Giovanni, Radi, Giorgia, Solaini, Leonardo, Morgagni, Paolo, Grizzi, Giulia, Ratti, Margherita, Gelsomino, Fabio, Spallanzani, Andrea, Ghidini, Michele, Ercolani, Giorgio, and Dominici, Massimo
- Subjects
ESOPHAGOGASTRIC junction ,NOMOGRAPHY (Mathematics) ,DECISION making ,LYMPHOCYTE count ,PROGNOSTIC models ,ADENOCARCINOMA - Abstract
Background. More than 50% of operable GEA relapse after curative-intent resection. We aimed at externally validating a nomogram to enable a more accurate estimate of individualized risk in resected GEA. Methods. Medical records of a training cohort (TC) and a validation cohort (VC) of patients undergoing radical surgery for c/uT2-T4 and/or node-positive GEA were retrieved, and potentially interesting variables were collected. Cox proportional hazards in univariate and multivariate regressions were used to assess the effects of the prognostic factors on OS. A graphical nomogram was constructed using R software's package Regression Modeling Strategies (ver. 5.0-1). The performance of the prognostic model was evaluated and validated. Results. The TC and VC consisted of 185 and 151 patients. ECOG:PS > 0 (p < 0.001), angioinvasion (p < 0.001), log (Neutrophil/Lymphocyte ratio) (p < 0.001), and nodal status (p = 0.016) were independent prognostic values in the TC. They were used for the construction of a nomogram estimating 3- and 5-year OS. The discriminatory ability of the model was evaluated with the c-Harrell index. A 3-tier scoring system was developed through a linear predictor grouped by 25 and 75 percentiles, strengthening the model's good discrimination (p < 0.001). A calibration plot demonstrated a concordance between the predicted and actual survival in the TC and VC. A decision curve analysis was plotted that depicted the nomogram's clinical utility. Conclusions. We externally validated a prognostic nomogram to predict OS in a joint independent cohort of resectable GEA; the NOMOGAST could represent a valuable tool in assisting decision-making. This tool incorporates readily available and inexpensive patient and disease characteristics as well as immune-inflammatory determinants. It is accurate, generalizable, and clinically effectivex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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