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Previous theoretical studies suggest that the topography along the west coast of Australia plays an important role in strengthening and trapping the Leeuwin Current (LC) at the coast. To isolate and quantify the effect of the continental shelf and slope on the LC and Ningaloo Niño, high-resolution (1/12°) ocean general circulation model experiments with different bottom topographies are performed. The “control” experiment uses a realistic bottom topography along the west coast of Australia, whereas the sensitivity (“no-shelf”) experiment uses a modified topography with no continental shelf and slope near the coast. The mean and variability of LC are realistically simulated in the control experiment. Compared to the control experiment, the strength of LC in the no-shelf experiment decreased by about 28%. The continental shelf influences the development of the 2010/11 Ningaloo Niño through modulating the LC variability: in August–October 2010 and January–February 2011, the LC in the control experiment is enhanced much more than that in the no-shelf experiment. As a result, the upper-50-m ocean temperature in the control experiment is about 26% warmer than the no-shelf experiment from September 2010 to March 2011. Different evolution of SST warming is also found in the two experiments. Comparisons of oceanic processes in the two experiments show that the shelf-slope topography can effectively trap the positive sea level anomaly at the coast in the control experiment while more Rossby waves radiate from the coast in the no-shelf experiment, resulting in a weaker LC.

Statistical relationships between atmospheric rivers (ARs) and extratropical cyclones and anticyclones are investigated on a global scale using objectively identified ARs, cyclones, and anticyclones during 1979–2014. Composites of circulation and moisture fields around the ARs show that a strong cyclone is located poleward and westward of the AR centroid, which confirms the close link between the AR and extratropical cyclone. In addition, a pronounced anticyclone is found to be located equatorward and eastward of the AR, whose presence together with the cyclone leads to strong horizontal pressure gradient that forces moisture to be transported along a narrow corridor within the warm sector of the cyclone. This anticyclone located toward the downstream equatorward side of the cyclone is found to be missing for cyclones not associated with ARs. These key features are robust in composites performed in different hemispheres, over different ocean basins, and with respect to different AR intensities. Furthermore, correlation analysis shows that the AR intensity is much better correlated with the pressure gradient between the cyclone and anticyclone than with the cyclone/anticyclone intensity alone, although stronger cyclones favor the occurrence of AR. The importance of the horizontal pressure gradient in the formation of the AR is also consistent with the fact that climatologically ARs are frequently found over the region between the polar lows and subtropical highs in all seasons.

Generation and development mechanisms of the Ningaloo Niño are investigated using ocean and atmospheric general circulation model experiments. Consistent with previous studies, northerly wind anomalies off the West Australian coast are critical in generating warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the Ningaloo Niño, which induce SST warming through reduced turbulent heat loss toward the atmosphere (by decreasing surface wind speed), enhanced Leeuwin Current heat transport, and weakened coastal upwelling. Our results further reveal that northerly wind anomalies suppress the cold dry air transport from the Southern Ocean to the Ningaloo Niño region, which also contributes to the reduced turbulent heat loss. A positive cloud–radiation feedback is also found to play a role. Low stratiform cloud is reduced by the underlying warm SSTAs and the weakened air subsidence, which further enhances the SST warming by increasing downward solar radiation. The enhanced Indonesian Throughflow also contributes to the Ningaloo Niño, but only when La Niña co-occurs. Further analysis show that northerly wind anomalies along the West Australian coast can be generated by both remote forcing from the Pacific Ocean (i.e., La Niña) and internal processes of the Indian Ocean, such as the positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Approximately 40% of the Ningaloo Niño events during 1950–2010 co-occurred with La Niña, and 30% co-occurred with positive IOD. There are also ~30% of the events independent of La Niña and positive IOD, suggesting the importance of other processes in triggering the Ningaloo Niño.

Six sets of hindcasts conducted with the NCEP GFS have been used to study the SST-feedback processes and assess the relative contributions of atmospheric internal dynamics and SST feedback on the October and November MJO events observed during the DYNAMO IOP (Oct- and Nov-MJO). The hindcasts are carried out with three variants of the Arakawa–Shubert cumulus scheme under TMI and climatological SST conditions. The positive intraseasonal SST anomaly along with its convergent Laplacian produces systematic surface disturbances, which include enhanced surface convergence, evaporation, and equivalent potential temperature no matter which cumulus scheme is used. Whether these surface disturbances can grow into a robust response of MJO convection depends on the characteristics of the cumulus schemes used. If the cumulus scheme is able to amplify the SST-initiated surface disturbances through a strong upward–downward feedback, the model is able to produce a robust MJO convection response to the underlying SST anomaly; otherwise, the model will not produce any significant SST feedback. A new method has been developed to quantify the “potential” and “practical” contributions of the atmospheric internal dynamics and SST feedback on the MJOs. The present results suggest that, potentially, the SST feedback could have larger contributions than the atmospheric internal dynamics. Practically, the contributions to the Oct- and Nov-MJO events are, respectively, dominated by atmospheric internal dynamics and SST feedback. Averaged over the entire period, the contributions from the atmospheric internal dynamics and SST feedback are about half and half.

This study investigates the intraseasonal variations of the Northern Hemispheric storm track associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during the extended boreal winter (November–April) using 36 yr (1979–2014) of reanalysis data from ERA-Interim. Two methods have been used to diagnose storm-track variations. In the first method, the storm track is quantified by the temporal-filtered variance of 250-hPa meridional wind (vv250) or mean sea level pressure (pp). The intraseasonal anomalies of vv250 composited for eight MJO phases are characterized by a zonal band of strong positive (or negative) anomalies meandering from the Pacific all the way across North America and the Atlantic into northern Europe, with weaker anomalies of opposite sign at one or both flanks. The results based on pp are consistent with those based on vv250 except for larger zonal variations, which may be induced by surface topography. In the second method, an objective cyclone-tracking scheme has been used to track the extratropical cyclones that compose the storm track. The MJO-composite anomalies of the “accumulated” cyclone activity, a quantity that includes contributions from both the cyclone frequency and cyclone mean intensity, are very similar to those based on pp. Further analysis demonstrates that major contribution comes from variations in the cyclone frequency. Further analysis suggests that the intraseasonal variations of the storm track can be primarily attributed to the variations of the mean flow that responds to the anomalous MJO convections in the tropics, with possible contribution also from the moisture variations.

Previous studies indicate that equatorial zonal winds in the Indian Ocean can significantly influence the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). During the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability (CINDY)/Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign, two strong MJO events were observed within a month without a clear suppressed phase between them, and these events generated exceptionally strong ocean responses. Strong eastward currents along the equator in the Indian Ocean lasted more than one month from late November 2011 to early January 2012. The influence of these unique MJO events during the field campaign on ITF variability is investigated using a high-resolution (1/25°) global ocean general circulation model, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). The strong westerlies associated with these MJO events, which exceed 10 m s−1, generate strong equatorial eastward jets and downwelling near the eastern boundary. The equatorial jets are realistically simulated by the global HYCOM based on the comparison with the data collected during the field campaign. The analysis demonstrates that sea surface height (SSH) and alongshore velocity anomalies at the eastern boundary propagate along the coast of Sumatra and Java as coastal Kelvin waves, significantly reducing the ITF transport at the Makassar Strait during January–early February. The alongshore velocity anomalies associated with the Kelvin wave significantly leads SSH anomalies. The magnitude of the anomalous currents at the Makassar Strait is exceptionally large because of the unique feature of the MJO events, and thus the typical seasonal cycle of ITF could be significantly altered by strong MJO events such as those observed during the CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign.

The hypothesis of convective quasi-equilibrium (CQE) has dominated thinking about the interaction between deep moist convection and the environment for at least two decades. In this view, deep convection develops or decays almost instantly to remove any changes of convective instability, making the tropospheric temperature always tied to the boundary layer moist static energy. The present study examines the validity of the CQE hypothesis at different vertical levels using long-term sounding data from tropical convection centers. The results show that the tropical atmosphere is far from the CQE with much weaker warming in the middle and upper troposphere associated with the increase of boundary layer moist static energy. This is true for all the time scales resolved by the observational data, ranging from hourly to interannual and decadal variability. It is possibly caused by the ubiquitous existence of shallow convection and stratiform precipitation, both leading to sign reversal of heating from lower to upper troposphere. The simulations by 42 global climate models from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparsion Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) are also analyzed and compared with the observations.

This study examines the stratocumulus clouds and associated cloud feedback in the southeast Pacific (SEP) simulated by eight global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) using long-term observations of clouds, radiative fluxes, cloud radiative forcing (CRF), sea surface temperature (SST), and large-scale atmosphere environment. The results show that the state-of-the-art global climate models still have significant difficulty in simulating the SEP stratocumulus clouds and associated cloud feedback. Comparing with observations, the models tend to simulate significantly less cloud cover, higher cloud top, and a variety of unrealistic cloud albedo. The insufficient cloud cover leads to overly weak shortwave CRF and net CRF. Only two of the eight models capture the observed positive cloud feedback at subannual to decadal time scales. The cloud and radiation biases in the models are associated with 1) model biases in large-scale temperature structure including the lack of temperature inversion, insufficient lower troposphere stability (LTS), and insufficient reduction of LTS with local SST warming, and 2) improper model physics, especially insufficient increase of low cloud cover associated with larger LTS. The two models that arguably do best at simulating the stratocumulus clouds and associated cloud feedback are the only ones using cloud-top radiative cooling to drive boundary layer turbulence.

This study evaluates the simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) in 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and compares the results with the simulation of CMIP phase 3 (CMIP3) models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The results show that the CMIP5 models exhibit an overall improvement over the CMIP3 models in the simulation of tropical intraseasonal variability, especially the MJO and several CCEWs. The CMIP5 models generally produce larger total intraseasonal (2–128 day) variance of precipitation than the CMIP3 models, as well as larger variances of Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), and eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) waves. Nearly all models have signals of the CCEWs, with Kelvin and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) and EIG waves being especially prominent. The phase speeds, as scaled to equivalent depths, are close to the observed value in 10 of the 20 models, suggesting that these models produce sufficient reduction in their effective static stability by diabatic heating. The CMIP5 models generally produce larger MJO variance than the CMIP3 models, as well as a more realistic ratio between the variance of the eastward MJO and that of its westward counterpart. About one-third of the CMIP5 models generate the spectral peak of MJO precipitation between 30 and 70 days; however, the model MJO period tends to be longer than observations as part of an overreddened spectrum, which in turn is associated with too strong persistence of equatorial precipitation. Only one of the 20 models is able to simulate a realistic eastward propagation of the MJO.

This study examines systematic biases in sea surface temperature (SST) under the stratus cloud deck in the southeast Pacific Ocean and upper-ocean processes relevant to the SST biases in 19 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The 20 years of simulations from each model are analyzed. Pronounced warm SST biases in a large portion of the southeast Pacific stratus region are found in all models. Processes that could contribute to the SST biases are examined in detail based on the computation of major terms in the upper-ocean heat budget. Negative biases in net surface heat fluxes are evident in most of the models, suggesting that the cause of the warm SST biases in models is not explained by errors in net surface heat fluxes. Biases in heat transport by Ekman currents largely contribute to the warm SST biases both near the coast and the open ocean. In the coastal area, southwestward Ekman currents and upwelling in most models are much weaker than observed owing to weaker alongshore winds, resulting in insufficient advection of cold water from the coast. In the open ocean, warm advection due to Ekman currents is overestimated in models because of the larger meridional temperature gradient, the smaller zonal temperature gradient, and overly weaker Ekman currents.

This study evaluates the intraseasonal variation of winter precipitation over the western United States in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of each model’s twentieth-century climate simulation are analyzed. The focus is on the two dominant intraseasonal modes for the western U.S. precipitation: the 40-day mode and the 22-day mode. The results show that the models tend to overestimate the northern winter (November–April) seasonal mean precipitation over the western United States and Canada. The models also tend to produce overly strong intraseasonal variability in western U.S. wintertime precipitation, in spite of the overly weak tropical intraseasonal variability in most of the models. All models capture both the 40-day mode and the 22-day mode, usually with overly large variances. For the 40-day mode, models tend to reproduce its deep barotropic vertical structure and three-cell horizontal structure, but only 5 of the 14 models capture its northward propagation, and only 2 models simulate its teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation in the tropical Pacific. For the 22-day mode, 8 of the 14 models reproduce its coherent northward propagation, and 9 models capture its teleconnection with precipitation in the tropical Pacific.

Persistent stratus/stratocumulus cloud decks in the southeast Pacific near the coasts of Peru and northern Chile play an important role in regional and global climate variability. Interannual variability of the upper ocean under stratus cloud decks in the southeast Pacific is investigated using ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments. The model was first forced with daily surface fluxes based on the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and satellite-derived surface shortwave and longwave radiation for the period of 1979–2004. Gridded surface heat flux estimates used in the model integration agree well with those based on Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Improved Meteorology (IMET) buoy measurements at 20°S, 85°W. Also, the OGCM is able to reproduce well the observed interannual SST and sea surface height variations in this region. The results suggest that the interannual variation of the upper ocean north of 20°S is mostly associated with ENSO variability. Additional model experiments were conducted to examine the relative importance of ocean dynamics and surface heat fluxes in determining the interannual variation in SST. The results of these experiments indicate that upper-ocean dynamics play a dominant role in controlling the interannual variation of SST north of 20°S in the stratus cloud region. The upper-ocean heat budget analysis shows that meridional heat advection associated with ENSO events primarily controls the interannual SST variation in the stratus cloud region north of 20°S.

The relationship between atmospheric subseasonal variability and interannual variation of SST over the tropical Indian Ocean is examined using winds and humidity from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and the monthly SST analysis. The primary focus is on whether and how the subseasonal variability is related to the zonal dipole structure of SST, which peaks during boreal fall. The level of subseasonal wind activity is measured by standard deviation of bandpass-filtered zonal wind fields on the 6–30- and 30–90-day time scales. During boreal fall (September–November), the interannual variation of 6–30-day (submonthly) near-surface zonal wind activity in the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is highly correlated with the large-scale zonal SST gradient. The intensity of submonthly variability is largely reduced during positive dipole years. A significant reduction of intraseasonal (30–90-day) wind activity is also evident during large dipole events. However, the correlation with the zonal SST gradient is much weaker than that of submonthly variability. The mechanism by which the Indian Ocean dipole influences equatorial submonthly winds is investigated based on a cross-correlation analysis of OLR and winds. During negative dipole years, submonthly convection is active in the southeast Indian Ocean where the anomalous convergence of surface moisture associated with dipole events is at its maximum. The submonthly convection in this region is often associated with a cyclonic circulation, and these disturbances propagate westward. Consequently, equatorial westerlies and northwesterly winds near the coast of Sumatra are generated. During positive dipole years, submonthly convective activity is highly reduced in the southeast Indian Ocean, and thus no equatorial westerly is generated. Ocean response to submonthly disturbances is examined using OGCM experiments forced with winds from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. Results suggest that submonthly winds can generate significant upper-ocean response, including strong eastward surface currents near the equator and sea surface height anomalies along the coast of Sumatra where the large SST anomalies associated with dipole events are observed.

The mechanism by which the diurnal cycle of solar radiation modulates intraseasonal SST variability in the western Pacific warm pool is investigated using a one-dimensional mixed layer model. SSTs in the model experiments forced with hourly surface fluxes during the calm–sunny phase of intraseasonal oscillation are significantly warmer than those with daily mean surface fluxes. The difference in two experiments is explained by upper-ocean mixing processes during nighttime. Surface warming during daytime creates a shallow diurnal warm layer near the surface (0–3 m), which can be easily eroded by surface cooling during nighttime. Further cooling, however, requires a substantial amount of energy because deeper waters need to be entrained into the mixed layer. Since the shallow diurnal layer is not formed in the experiment with daily mean surface fluxes, the SST for the hourly forcing case is warmer most of the time due to the diurnally varying solar radiation. Sensitivity of the intraseasonal SST variation to the penetrative component of solar radiation is examined, showing that the diurnal cycle plays an important role in the sensitivity. Solar radiation absorbed in the upper few meters significantly influences intraseasonal SST variations through changes in amplitude of diurnal SST variation.

Remote forcing of sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Indian Ocean during the course of El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is investigated using NCEP reanalysis and general circulation model (GCM) experiments. Three experiments are conducted to elucidate how SST variations in the equatorial Pacific influence surface flux variations, and hence SST variations, across the Indian Ocean. A control experiment is conducted by prescribing observed SSTs globally for the period 1950-99. In the second experiment, observed SSTs are prescribed only in the tropical eastern Pacific, while climatological SSTs are used elsewhere over the global oceans. In the third experiment, observed SSTs are prescribed in the tropical eastern Pacific, while a variable-depth ocean mixed layer model is used at all other ocean grid points to predict the SST. Composites of surface fluxes and SST over the Indian Ocean are formed based on El Nino and La Nina events during 1950-99. The surface flux variations in the eastern Indian Ocean in all three experiments are similar and realistic, confirming that much of the surface flux variation during ENSO is remotely forced from the Pacific. Furthermore, the SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean are well simulated by the coupled model, which supports the notion of an ''atmospheric bridge'' from the Pacific. During boreal summer and fall, when climatological winds are southeasterly over the eastern Indian Ocean, remotely forced anomalous easterlies act to increase the local wind speed. SST cools in response to increased evaporative cooling, which is partially offset by increased solar radiation associated with reduced rainfall. During winter, the climatological winds become northwesterly and the anomalous easterlies then act to reduce the wind speed and evaporative cooling. Together with increased solar radiation and a shoaling mixed layer, the SST warms rapidly. The model is less successful at reproducing the ENSO-induced SST anomalies in the western Indian Ocean, suggesting that dynamical ocean processes contribute to the east-west SST dipole that is often observed in boreal fall during ENSO events.

Rectification of (Madden–Julian oscillation) MJO-induced wind speed and latent heat flux variations across the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans is estimated using 51 yr of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. The rectified wind speed anomaly is calculated from the difference in wind speed based on 30- and 90-day low-pass-filtered winds. During periods when the MJO is active, the wind speed is typically enhanced by about 1 m s−1 south of the equator in the western Pacific. The largest rectified latent heat flux occurred during the large MJO event of March 1997 in the western Pacific warm pool. The magnitude of the rectification is found to depend strongly on the mean wind speed, and this affects the temporal and spatial variations of the rectification.

The upper-ocean heat budget in response to the atmospheric Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the western equatorial Pacific is examined using a tropical Pacific basin general circulation model. The model is forced with surface fluxes associated with 10 well-defined MJO events from the period 1986–93. Surface fluxes were estimated from gridded operational analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and independent satellite data. A 10-event composite of the model results was formed. The simulated composite SST agrees well with the observed composite from weekly SST analyses. Also, the simulated intraseasonal SST variation for the large MJO event during TOGA COARE (December 1992) agrees reasonably well with SST observed at a mooring. The strong equatorial jet associated with this MJO event is also well simulated. The heat budget of the warm pool is calculated from the model output in order to investigate the role of three-dimensional processes in driving the intraseasonal ...

Sea surface temperature (SST) variations associated with the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans, are examined using a one-dimensional mixed layer model. Surface fluxes associated with 10 well-defined intraseasonal events from the period 1986‐93 are used to force the model. Surface winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts daily analyses and SST from the mixed layer model are used to compute latent and sensible heat fluxes and wind stress with the TOGA COARE bulk flux algorithm. Surface freshwater flux is estimated from the Microwave Sounding Unit precipitation data. Net shortwave radiation is estimated, via regression analysis, from outgoing longwave radiation. An idealized diurnal cycle of shortwave radiation is also imposed. The intraseasonal SST variation from the model, when forced by the surface fluxes estimated from gridded analyses, agrees well with the SST observed at a mooring during the COARE. The model was then integrated for the 10 well-defined intraseasonal events at grid points from 758 to 1758 Ea t 58S, which spans the warm pool of the equatorial Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The one-dimensional model is able to simulate the amplitude of the observed intraseasonal SST variation throughout this domain. Variations of shortwave radiation and latent heat flux are equally important for driving the SST variations in the western Pacific, while latent heat flux variations are less important in the Indian Ocean. The phasing of the intraseasonal variation of precipitation relative to wind stress results in little impact of the freshwater flux variation on the intraseasonally varying mixed layer. The diurnal cycle of shortwave radiation is found to significantly increase the intraseasonal amplitude of SST over that produced by daily mean insolation.

Composites of sea surface temperature (SST), surface heat, momentum, and freshwater flux anomalies associated with intraseasonal oscillations of convection are developed for the warm pool of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans during 1986–93. The composites are based on empirical orthogonal function analysis of intraseasonally filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), which efficiently extracts the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in convection. Surface fluxes are estimated using gridded analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, weekly SST, OLR, microwave sounding unit precipitation, and the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) bulk flux algorithm. At intraseasonal timescales, these surface flux estimates agree reasonably well with estimates based on mooring observations collected during TOGA COARE. The amplitude of the composite SST variation produced by the MJO is about 0.25°C in the western Pacific, 0.35°C in ...