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This study uses sea surface salinity (SSS) as an additional precursor for improving the prediction of summer [December–February (DJF)] rainfall over northeastern Australia. From a singular value decomposition between SSS of prior seasons and DJF rainfall, we note that SSS of the Indo-Pacific warm pool region [SSSP (150°E–165°W and 10°S–10°N) and SSSI (50°–95°E and 10°S–10°N)] covaries with Australian rainfall, particularly in the northeast region. Composite analysis that is based on high or low SSS events in the SSSP and SSSI regions is performed to understand the physical links between the SSS and the atmospheric moisture originating from the regions of anomalously high or low, respectively, SSS and precipitation over Australia. The composites show the signature of co-occurring La Niña and negative Indian Ocean dipole with anomalously wet conditions over Australia and conversely show the signature of co-occurring El Niño and positive Indian Ocean dipole with anomalously dry conditions there. During the high SSS events of the SSSP and SSSI regions, the convergence of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously wet conditions over Australia with a positive soil moisture anomaly. Conversely, during the low SSS events of the SSSP and SSSI regions, the divergence of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously dry conditions over Australia with a negative soil moisture anomaly. We show from the random-forest regression analysis that the local soil moisture, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and SSSP are the most important precursors for the northeast Australian rainfall whereas for the Brisbane region ENSO, SSSP, and the Indian Ocean dipole are the most important. The prediction of Australian rainfall using random-forest regression shows an improvement by including SSS from the prior season. This evidence suggests that sustained observations of SSS can improve the monitoring of the Australian regional hydrological cycle.

The long-term trend of sea surface salinity (SSS) reveals an intensification of the global hydrological cycle due to human-induced climate change. This study demonstrates that SSS variability can also be used as a measure of terrestrial precipitation on interseasonal to interannual time scales, and to locate the source of moisture. Seasonal composites during El Niño–Southern Oscillation/Indian Ocean dipole (ENSO/IOD) events are used to understand the variations of moisture transport and precipitation over Australia, and their association with SSS variability. As ENSO/IOD events evolve, patterns of positive or negative SSS anomaly emerge in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and are accompanied by atmospheric moisture transport anomalies toward Australia. During co-occurring La Niña and negative IOD events, salty anomalies around the Maritime Continent (north of Australia) indicate freshwater export and are associated with a significant moisture transport that converges over Australia to create anomalous wet conditions. In contrast, during co-occurring El Niño and positive IOD events, a moisture transport divergence anomaly over Australia results in anomalous dry conditions. The relationship between SSS and atmospheric moisture transport also holds for pure ENSO/IOD events but varies in magnitude and spatial pattern. The significant pattern correlation between the moisture flux divergence and SSS anomaly during the ENSO/IOD events highlights the associated ocean–atmosphere coupling. A case study of the extreme hydroclimatic events of Australia (e.g., the 2010/11 Brisbane flood) demonstrates that the changes in SSS occur before the peak of ENSO/IOD events. This raises the prospect that tracking of SSS variability could aid the prediction of Australian rainfall.

More frequent high pressure conditions associated with atmospheric blocking episodes over Greenland in recent decades have been suggested to enhance melt through large-scale subsidence and cloud dissipation, which allows more solar radiation to reach the ice sheet surface. Here we investigate mechanisms linking high pressure circulation anomalies to Greenland cloud changes and resulting cloud radiative effects, with a focus on the previously neglected role of topography. Using reanalysis and satellite data in addition to a regional climate model, we show that anticyclonic circulation anomalies over Greenland during recent extreme blocking summers produce cloud changes dependent on orographic lift and descent. The resulting increased cloud cover over northern Greenland promotes surface longwave warming, while reduced cloud cover in southern and marginal Greenland favors surface shortwave warming. Comparison with an idealized model simulation with flattened topography reveals that orographic effects were necessary to produce area-averaged decreasing cloud cover since the mid-1990s and the extreme melt observed in the summer of 2012. This demonstrates a key role for Greenland topography in mediating the cloud and melt response to large-scale circulation variability. These results suggest that future melt will depend on the pattern of circulation anomalies as well as the shape of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0527.s1. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Recent studies have suggested that coherent multidecadal variability exists between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking frequency and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). However, the role of AMV in modulating blocking variability on multidecadal times scales is not fully understood. This study examines this issue primarily using the NOAA Twentieth Century Reanalysis for 1901–2010. The second mode of the empirical orthogonal function for winter (December–March) atmospheric blocking variability in the North Atlantic exhibits oppositely signed anomalies of blocking frequency over Greenland and the Azores. Furthermore, its principal component time series shows a dominant multidecadal variability lagging AMV by several years. Composite analyses show that this lag is due to the slow evolution of the AMV sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which is likely driven by the ocean circulation. Following the warm phase of AMV, the warm SST anomalies emerge in the western subpolar gyre over 3–7 years. The ocean–atmosphere interaction over these 3–7-yr periods is characterized by the damping of the warm SST anomalies by the surface heat flux anomalies, which in turn reduce the overall meridional gradient of the air temperature and thus weaken the meridional transient eddy heat flux in the lower troposphere. The anomalous transient eddy forcing then shifts the eddy-driven jet equatorward, resulting in enhanced Rossby wave breaking and blocking on the northern flank of the jet over Greenland. The opposite is true with the AMV cold phases but with much shorter lags, as the evolution of SST anomalies differs in the warm and cold phases.

Previous studies have documented a poleward shift in the subsiding branches of Earth’s Hadley circulation since 1979 but have disagreed on the causes of these observed changes and the ability of global climate models to capture them. This synthesis paper reexamines a number of contradictory claims in the past literature and finds that the tropical expansion indicated by modern reanalyses is within the bounds of models’ historical simulations for the period 1979–2005. Earlier conclusions that models were underestimating the observed trends relied on defining the Hadley circulation using the mass streamfunction from older reanalyses. The recent observed tropical expansion has similar magnitudes in the annual mean in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), but models suggest that the factors driving the expansion differ between the hemispheres. In the SH, increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and stratospheric ozone depletion contributed to tropical expansion over the late twentieth century, and if GHGs continue increasing, the SH tropical edge is projected to shift further poleward over the twenty-first century, even as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover. In the NH, the contribution of GHGs to tropical expansion is much smaller and will remain difficult to detect in a background of large natural variability, even by the end of the twenty-first century. To explain similar recent tropical expansion rates in the two hemispheres, natural variability must be taken into account. Recent coupled atmosphere–ocean variability, including the Pacific decadal oscillation, has contributed to tropical expansion. However, in models forced with observed sea surface temperatures, tropical expansion rates still vary widely because of internal atmospheric variability.

Decadal variability of the subsurface ocean heat content (OHC) in the Indian Ocean is investigated using a coupled climate model experiment, in which observed eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (EPSST) anomalies are specified. This study intends to understand the contributions of external forcing relative to those of internal variability associated with EPSST, as well as the mechanisms by which the Pacific impacts Indian Ocean OHC. Internally generated variations associated with EPSST dominate decadal variations in the subsurface Indian Ocean. Consistent with ocean reanalyses, the coupled model reproduces a pronounced east–west dipole structure in the southern tropical Indian Ocean and discontinuities in westward-propagating signals in the central Indian Ocean around 100°E. This implies distinct mechanisms by which the Pacific impacts the eastern and western Indian Ocean on decadal time scales. Decadal variations of OHC in the eastern Indian Ocean are attributed to 1) western Pacific surface wind anomalies, which trigger oceanic Rossby waves propagating westward through the Indonesian Seas and influence Indonesian Throughflow transport, and 2) zonal wind anomalies over the central tropical Indian Ocean, which trigger eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. Decadal variations of OHC in the western Indian Ocean are linked to conditions in the Pacific via changes in the atmospheric Walker cell, which trigger anomalous wind stress curl and Ekman pumping in the central tropical Indian Ocean. Westward-propagating oceanic Rossby waves extend the influence of this anomalous Ekman pumping to the western Indian Ocean.

The North Atlantic atmospheric circulation response to the meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream (GS) path is examined using a large ensemble of high-resolution hemispheric-scale Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations. The model is forced with a broad range of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies derived from a lag regression on a GS index. The primary result of the model experiments, supported in part by an independent analysis of a reanalysis dataset, is that the large-scale quasi-steady North Atlantic circulation response is remarkably nonlinear about the sign and amplitude of the SST anomaly chosen over a wide range of GS shift scenarios. The nonlinear response prevails over the weak linear response and resembles the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the leading intrinsic mode of variability in the model and the observations. Further analysis of the associated dynamics reveals that the nonlinear responses are accompanied by the shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, which is reinforced, with nearly equal importance, by the high-frequency transient eddy feedback and the low-frequency wave-breaking events. Additional sensitivity simulations confirm that the nonlinearity of the circulation response is a robust feature found over the broad parameter space encompassing not only the varied SST but also the absence/presence of tropical influence, the varying lateral boundary conditions, and the initialization scheme. The result highlights the fundamental importance of the intrinsically nonlinear transient eddy dynamics and the eddy–mean flow interactions in generating the nonlinear downstream response to the meridional shifts in the Gulf Stream.

Anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole, have been previously blamed for extended droughts and wet periods in Australia. Yet the extent to which Australian wet and dry spells can be driven by internal atmospheric variability remains unclear. Natural variability experiments are examined to determine whether prolonged extreme wet and dry periods can arise from internal atmospheric and land variability alone. Results reveal that this is indeed the case; however, these dry and wet events are found to be less severe than in simulations incorporating coupled oceanic variability. Overall, ocean feedback processes increase the magnitude of Australian rainfall variability by about 30% and give rise to more spatially coherent rainfall impacts. Over mainland Australia, ocean interactions lead to more frequent extreme events, particularly during the rainy season. Over Tasmania, in contrast, ocean–atmosphere coupling increases mean rainfall throughout the year. While ocean variability makes Australian rainfall anomalies more severe, droughts and wet spells of duration longer than three years are equally likely to occur in both atmospheric- and ocean-driven simulations. Moreover, they are essentially indistinguishable from what one expects from a Gaussian white noise distribution. Internal atmosphere–land-driven megadroughts and megapluvials that last as long as ocean-driven events are also identified in the simulations. This suggests that oceanic variability may be less important than previously assumed for the long-term persistence of Australian rainfall anomalies. This poses a challenge to accurate prediction of long-term dry and wet spells for Australia.

Moisture originating from the subtropical North Atlantic feeds precipitation throughout the Western Hemisphere. This ocean-to-land moisture transport leaves its imprint on sea surface salinity (SSS), enabling SSS over the subtropical oceans to be used as an indicator of terrestrial precipitation. This study demonstrates that springtime SSS over the northwestern portion of the subtropical North Atlantic significantly correlates with summertime precipitation over the U.S. Midwest. The linkage between springtime SSS and the Midwest summer precipitation is established through ocean-to-land moisture transport followed by a soil moisture feedback over the southern United States. In the spring, high SSS over the northwestern subtropical Atlantic coincides with a local increase in moisture flux divergence. The moisture flux is then directed toward and converges over the southern United States, which experiences increased precipitation and soil moisture. The increased soil moisture influences the regional water cycle both thermodynamically and dynamically, leading to excessive summer precipitation in the Midwest. Thermodynamically, the increased soil moisture tends to moisten the lower troposphere and enhances the meridional humidity gradient north of 36°N. Thus, more moisture will be transported and converged into the Midwest by the climatological low-level wind. Dynamically, the increases in soil moisture over the southern United States enhance the west–east soil moisture gradient eastward of the Rocky Mountains, which can help to intensify the Great Plains low-level jet in the summer, converging more moisture into the Midwest. Owing to these robust physical linkages, the springtime SSS outweighs the leading SST modes in predicting the Midwest summer precipitation and significantly improves rainfall prediction in this region.

Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMM growing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°–4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southern Australia across models is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.

The representation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there exist systematic biases in the westward extent of ENSO-related SST anomalies, driven by unrealistic westward displacement and enhancement of the equatorial wind stress in the western Pacific. Almost all CMIP5 models capture the observed asymmetry in magnitude between the warm and cold events (i.e., El Niños are stronger than La Niñas) and between the two types of El Niños: that is, cold tongue (CT) El Niños are stronger than warm pool (WP) El Niños. However, most models fail to reproduce the asymmetry between the two types of La Niñas, with CT stronger than WP events, which is opposite to observations. Most models capture the observed peak in ENSO amplitude around December; however, the seasonal evolution of ENSO has a large range of behavior across the models. The CMIP5 models generally reproduce the duration of CT El Niños but have biases in the evolution of the other types of events. The evolution of WP El Niños suggests that the decay of this event occurs through heat content discharge in the models rather than the advection of SST via anomalous zonal currents, as seems to occur in observations. No consistent changes are seen across the models in the location and magnitude of maximum SST anomalies, frequency, or temporal evolution of these events in a warmer world.

Characteristics of atmospheric blocking in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are explored in atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3, with a particular focus on the Australia–New Zealand sector. Preferred locations of blocking in SH observations and the associated seasonal cycle are well represented in the AGCM simulations, but the observed magnitude of blocking is underestimated throughout the year, particularly in late winter and spring. This is related to overly zonal flow due to an enhanced meridional pressure gradient in the model, which results in a decreased amplitude of the longwave trough/ridge pattern. A range of AGCM sensitivity experiments explores the effect on SH blocking of tropical heating, midlatitude sea surface temperatures, and land–sea temperature gradients created over the Australian continent during austral winter. The combined effects of tropical heating and extratropical temperature gradients are further explored in a configuration that is favorable for blocking in the Australia–New Zealand sector with warm SST anomalies to the north of Australia, cold to the southwest of Australia, warm to the southeast, and cool Australian land temperatures. The blocking-favorable configuration indicates a significant strengthening of the subtropical jet and a reduction in midlatitude flow, which results from changes in the thermal wind. While these overall changes in mean climate, predominantly forced by the tropical heating, enhance blocking activity, the magnitude of atmospheric blocking compared to observations is still underestimated. The blocking-unfavorable configuration with surface forcing anomalies of opposite sign results in a weakening subtropical jet, enhanced midlatitude flow, and significantly reduced blocking.

Variations in eastern Indian Ocean upper-ocean thermal properties are assessed for the period 1970–2004, with a particular focus on asymmetric features related to opposite phases of Indian Ocean dipole events, using high-resolution ocean model hindcasts. Sensitivity experiments, where interannual atmospheric forcing variability is restricted to the Indian or Pacific Ocean only, support the interpretation of forcing mechanisms for large-scale asymmetric behavior in eastern Indian Ocean variability. Years are classified according to eastern Indian Ocean subsurface heat content (HC) as proxy of thermocline variations. Years characterized by an anomalous low HC feature a zonal gradient in upper-ocean properties near the equator, while high events have a meridional gradient from the tropics into the subtropics. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the seasonal evolution of HC anomalies for the two cases is distinct, as is the relative contribution from Indian Ocean atmospheric forcing versus remote influences from Pacific wind forcing: low events develop rapidly during austral winter/spring in response to Indian Ocean wind forcing associated with an enhanced southeasterly monsoon driving coastal upwelling and a shoaling thermocline in the east; in contrast, formation of an anomalous high eastern Indian Ocean HC is more gradual, with anomalies earlier in the year expanding from the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) region, initiated by remote Pacific wind forcing, and transmitted through the ITF via coastal wave dynamics. Implications for seasonal predictions arise with high HC events offering extended lead times for predicting thermocline variations and upper-ocean properties across the eastern Indian Ocean.

This study investigates the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere during El Niño events, with a focus on Australian climate. During El Niño episodes, the tropical Indian Ocean exhibits two types of SST response: a uniform “basinwide warming” and a dipole mode—the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). While the impacts of the IOD on climate have been extensively studied, the effects of the basinwide warming, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, have received less attention. The interannual basinwide warming response has important implications for Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation because 1) it accounts for a greater portion of the Indian Ocean monthly SST variance than the IOD pattern and 2) its maximum amplitude occurs during austral summer to early autumn, when large parts of Australia, South America, and Africa experience their monsoon. Using observations and numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model forced with historical SST from 1949 to 2005 over different tropical domains, the authors show that the basinwide warming leads to a Gill–Matsuno-type response that reinforces the anomalies caused by changes in the Pacific as part of El Niño. In particular, the basinwide warming drives strong subsidence over Australia, prolonging the dry conditions during January–March, when El Niño–related SST starts to decay. In addition to the anomalous circulation in the tropics, the basinwide warming excites a pair of barotropic anomalies in the Indian Ocean extratropics that induces an anomalous anticyclone in the Great Australian Bight.

The relative influences of Indian and Pacific Ocean modes of variability on Australian rainfall and soil moisture are investigated for seasonal, interannual, and decadal time scales. For the period 1900–2006, observations, reanalysis products, and hindcasts of soil moisture during the cool season (June–October) are used to assess the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) on southeastern Australia and the Murray–Darling Basin, two regions that have recently suffered severe droughts. A distinct asymmetry is found in the impacts of the opposite phases of both ENSO and IOD on Australian rainfall and soil moisture. There are significant differences between the dominant drivers of drought at interannual and decadal time scales. On interannual time scales, both ENSO and the IOD modify southeastern Australian soil moisture, with the driest (wettest) conditions over the southeast and more broadly over large parts of Australia occurring during years when an El Niño and a positive IOD event (La Niña and a negative IOD event) co-occur. The atmospheric circulation associated with these responses is discussed. Lower-frequency variability over southeastern Australia, however, including multiyear drought periods, seems to be more robustly related to Indian Ocean temperatures than Pacific conditions. The frequencies of both positive and negative IOD events are significantly different during periods of prolonged drought compared to extended periods of “normal” rainfall. In contrast, the frequency of ENSO events remains largely unchanged during prolonged dry and wet periods. For the Murray–Darling Basin, there appears to be a significant influence by La Niña and both positive and negative IOD events. In particular, La Niña plays a much more prominent role than for more southern regions, especially on interannual time scales and during prolonged wet periods. For prolonged dry (wet) periods, positive IOD events also occur in unusually high (low) numbers.

The objective of this study is to investigate the mechanisms that cause the anomalous intensification of tropical Australian rainfall at the height of the monsoon during El Niño Modoki events. In such events, northwestern Australia tends to be wetter in January and February when the SST warming is displaced to the central west Pacific, the opposite response to that associated with a traditional El Niño. In addition, during the bounding months, that is, December and March, there is below-average rainfall induced by an anomalous Walker circulation. This behavior tends to narrow and intensify the annual rainfall cycle over northwestern Australia relative to the climatology, causing a delayed monsoonal onset and an earlier retreat over the region. Observational datasets and numerical experiments with a general circulation model are used to examine the atmospheric response to the central west Pacific SST warming. It is shown here that the increase of precipitation, particularly in February, is phased locked to the seasonal cycle when the intertropical convergence zone is displaced southward and the South Pacific convergence zone is strengthened. An interaction between the interannual SST variability associated with El Niño Modoki events and the evolution of the seasonal cycle intensifies deep convection in the central west Pacific, driving a Gill–Matsuno-type response to the diabatic heating. The westward-propagating disturbance associated with the Gill–Matsuno mechanism generates an anomalous cyclonic circulation over northwestern Australia, leading to convergence of moisture and increased precipitation. The Gill–Matsuno-type response overwhelms the subsidence of the anomalous Walker circulation associated with Modoki events over Australia during the peak of the monsoon.

This study explores the impact of meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients across the eastern Indian Ocean on interannual variations in Australian precipitation. Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are conducted in which the sign and magnitude of eastern Indian Ocean SST gradients are perturbed. This results in significant rainfall changes for western and southeastern Australia. A reduction (increase) in the meridional SST gradient drives a corresponding response in the atmospheric thickness gradients and results in anomalous dry (wet) conditions over Australia. During simulated wet years, this seems to be due to westerly anomalies in the thermal wind over Australia and anomalous onshore moisture advection, with a suggestion that the opposite occurs during dry conditions. Thus, an asymmetry is seen in the magnitude of the forced circulation and precipitation response between the dry and wet simulations. To assess the relative contribution of the SST anomalies making up the meridional gradient, the SST pattern is decomposed into its constituent “poles,” that is, the eastern tropical pole off the northwest shelf of Australia versus the southern pole in the central subtropical Indian Ocean. Overall, the simulated Australian rainfall response is linear with regard to the sign and magnitude of the eastern Indian Ocean SST gradient. The tropical eastern pole has a larger impact on the atmospheric circulation and Australian precipitation changes relative to the southern subtropical pole. However, there is clear evidence of the importance of the southern pole in enhancing the Australian rainfall response, when occurring in conjunction with but of opposite sign to the eastern tropical pole. The observed relationship between the meridional SST gradient in the eastern Indian Ocean and rainfall over western and southeastern Australia is also analyzed for the period 1970–2005. The observed relationship is found to be consistent with the AGCM results.

Fidelity and projected changes in the climate models, used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), are assessed with regard to the Southern Hemisphere extratropical ocean and sea ice systems. While individual models span different physical parameterizations and resolutions, a major component of intermodel variability results from surface wind differences. Projected changes to the surface wind field are also central in modifying future extratropical circulation and internal properties. A robust southward shift of the circumpolar current and subtropical gyres is projected, with a strong spinup of the Atlantic gyre. An associated increase in the core strength of the circumpolar circulation is evident; however, this does not translate into robust increases in Drake Passage transport. While an overarching oceanic warming is projected, the circulation-driven poleward shift of the temperature field explains much of the midlatitude warming pattern. The effect of this shift is less clear for salinity, where, instead, surface freshwater forcing dominates. Surface warming and high-latitude freshwater increases drive intensified stratification, and a shoaling and southward shift of the deep mixed layers. Despite large intermodel differences, there is also a robust weakening in bottom water formation and its northward outflow. At the same time the wind intensification invigorates the upwelling of deep water, transporting warm, salty water southward and upward, with major implications for sequestration and outgassing of CO2. A robust decrease is projected for both the sea ice concentration and the seasonal cycling of ice volume, potentially altering the salt and heat budget at high latitudes.

Links between extreme wet conditions over East Africa and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) are investigated during the core of the so-called short rain season in October–November. During periods of enhanced East African rainfall, Indian Ocean SST anomalies reminiscent of a tropical Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event are observed. Ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model are used to understand the relative effect of local and large-scale Indian Ocean SST anomalies on above-average East African precipitation. The importance of the various tropical and subtropical IOD SST poles, both individually and in combination, is quantified. In the simulations, enhanced East African “short rains” are predominantly driven by the local warm SST anomalies in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, while the eastern cold pole of the tropical IOD is of lesser importance. The changed East African rainfall distribution can be explained by a reorganization of the atmospheric circulation induced by the SST anomalies. A reduction in sea level pressure over the western half of the Indian Ocean and converging wind anomalies over East Africa lead to moisture convergence and increased convective activity over the region. The pattern of large-scale circulation changes over the tropical Indian Ocean and adjacent landmasses is consistent with an anomalous strengthening of the Walker cell. The seasonal cycle of various indices related to the SST and the atmospheric circulation in the equatorial Indian Ocean are examined to assess their potential usefulness for seasonal forecasting.

Late twentieth-century trends in New Zealand precipitation are examined using observations and reanalysis data for the period 1979–2006. One of the aims of this study is to investigate the link between these trends and recent changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. The contributions from changes in Southern Hemisphere climate modes, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the southern annular mode (SAM), are quantified for the austral summer season, December–February (DJF). Increasingly drier conditions over much of New Zealand can be partially explained by the SAM and ENSO. Especially over wide parts of the North Island and western regions of the South Island, the SAM potentially contributes up to 80% and 20%–50% to the overall decline in DJF precipitation, respectively. Over the North Island, the contribution of the SAM and ENSO to precipitation trends is of the same sign. In contrast, over the southwest of the South Island the two climate modes act in the opposite sense, though the effect of the SAM seems to dominate there during austral summer. The leading modes of variability in summertime precipitation over New Zealand are linked to the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The two dominant modes, explaining 64% and 9% of the overall DJF precipitation variability respectively, can be understood as local manifestations of the large-scale climate variability associated with the SAM and ENSO.

The potential impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating midlatitude precipitation across southern and western regions of Australia is assessed in a series of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. Two sets of AGCM integrations forced with a seasonally evolving characteristic dipole pattern in Indian Ocean SST consistent with observed “dry year” (PDRY) and “wet year” (PWET) signatures are shown to induce precipitation changes across western regions of Australia. Over Western Australia, a significant shift occurs in the winter and annual rainfall frequency with the distribution becoming skewed toward less (more) rainfall for the PDRY (PWET) SST pattern. For southwest Western Australia (SWWA), this shift primarily is due to the large-scale stable precipitation. Convective precipitation actually increases in the PDRY case over SWWA forced by local positive SST anomalies. A mechanism for the large-scale rainfall shifts is proposed, by which the SST anomalies induce a reorganization of the large-scale atmospheric circulation across the Indian Ocean basin. Thickness (1000–500 hPa) anomalies develop in the atmosphere mirroring the sign and position of the underlying SST anomalies. This leads to a weakening (strengthening) of the meridional thickness gradient and the subtropical jet during the austral winter in PDRY (PWET). The subsequent easterly offshore (westerly onshore) anomaly in the thermal wind over southern regions of Australia, along with a decrease (increase) in baroclinicity, results in the lower (higher) levels of large-scale stable precipitation. Variations in the vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere overlying the SST anomalies favor localized increased convective activity in PDRY because of differential temperature lapse rates. In contrast, enhanced widespread ascent of moist air masses associated with frontal movement in PWET accounts for a significant increase in rainfall in that ensemble set.

Interannual extremes in New Zealand rainfall and their modulation by modes of Southern Hemisphere climate variability are examined in observations and a coupled climate model. North Island extreme dry (wet) years are characterized by locally increased (reduced) sea level pressure (SLP), cold (warm) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the southern Tasman Sea and to the north of the island, and coinciding reduced (enhanced) evaporation upstream of the mean southwesterly airflow. During extreme dry (wet) years in South Island precipitation, an enhanced (reduced) meridional SLP gradient occurs, with circumpolar strengthened (weakened) subpolar westerlies and an easterly (westerly) anomaly in zonal wind in the subtropics. As a result, via Ekman transport, anomalously cold (warm) SST appears under the subpolar westerlies, while anomalies of the opposite sign occur farther north. The phase and magnitude of the resulting SST and evaporation anomalies cannot account for the rainfall extremes over the South Island, suggesting a purely atmospheric mode of variability as the driving factor, in this case the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). New Zealand rainfall variability is predominantly modulated by two Southern Hemisphere climate modes, namely, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the SAM, with a latitudinal gradation in influence of the respective phenomena, and a notable interaction with orographic features. While this heterogeneity is apparent both latitudinally and as a result of orographic effects, climate modes can force local rainfall anomalies with considerable variations across both islands. North Island precipitation is for the most part regulated by both local air–sea heat fluxes and circulation changes associated with the tropical ENSO mode. In contrast, for the South Island the influence of the large-scale general atmospheric circulation dominates, especially via the strength and position of the subpolar westerlies, which are modulated by the extratropical SAM.

Interannual rainfall extremes over southwest Western Australia (SWWA) are examined using observations, reanalysis data, and a long-term natural integration of the global coupled climate system. The authors reveal a characteristic dipole pattern of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during extreme rainfall years, remarkably consistent between the reanalysis fields and the coupled climate model but different from most previous definitions of SST dipoles in the region. In particular, the dipole exhibits peak amplitudes in the eastern Indian Ocean adjacent to the west coast of Australia. During dry years, anomalously cool waters appear in the tropical/subtropical eastern Indian Ocean, adjacent to a region of unusually warm water in the subtropics off SWWA. This dipole of anomalous SST seesaws in sign between dry and wet years and appears to occur in phase with a large-scale reorganization of winds over the tropical/subtropical Indian Ocean. The wind field alters SST via anomalous Ekman transport in the tropical Indian Ocean and via anomalous air–sea heat fluxes in the subtropics. The winds also change the large-scale advection of moisture onto the SWWA coast. At the basin scale, the anomalous wind field can be interpreted as an acceleration (deceleration) of the Indian Ocean climatological mean anticyclone during dry (wet) years. In addition, dry (wet) years see a strengthening (weakening) and coinciding southward (northward) shift of the subpolar westerlies, which results in a similar southward (northward) shift of the rain-bearing fronts associated with the subpolar front. A link is also noted between extreme rainfall years and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Namely, in some years the IOD acts to reinforce the eastern tropical pole of SST described above, and to strengthen wind anomalies along the northern flank of the Indian Ocean anticyclone. In this manner, both tropical and extratropical processes in the Indian Ocean generate SST and wind anomalies off SWWA, which lead to moisture transport and rainfall extremes in the region. An analysis of the seasonal evolution of the climate extremes reveals a progressive amplification of anomalies in SST and atmospheric circulation toward a wintertime maximum, coinciding with the season of highest SWWA rainfall. The anomalies in SST can appear as early as the summertime months, however, which may have important implications for predictability of SWWA rainfall extremes.