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Understanding the development and variation of the atmospheric circulation regimes driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is essential because these circulations interact with other forcings on decadal and interannual time scales. Collectively, they determine the summer (June, July, and August) precipitation variations for North America. In this study, a general circulation model (GCM) is used to obtain such understanding, with a focus on physical processes connecting the AMO and the summertime precipitation regime change in North America. Two experimental runs are conducted with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies imposed in the North Atlantic Ocean that represent the warm and cold phases of the AMO. Climatological SSTs are used elsewhere in the oceans. Model results yield summertime precipitation anomalies in North America closely matching the observed anomaly patterns in North America, suggesting that the AMO provides a fundamental control on summertime precipitation in North America at decadal time scales. The impacts of the AMO are achieved by a chain of events arising from different circulation anomalies during warm and cold phases of the AMO. During the warm phase, the North Atlantic subtropical high pressure system (NASH) weakens, and the North American continent is much less influenced by it. A massive body of warm air develops over the heated land in North America from June–August, associated with high temperature and low pressure anomalies in the lower troposphere and high pressure anomalies in the upper troposphere. In contrast, during the cold phase of the AMO, the North American continent, particularly to the west, is much more influenced by an enhanced NASH. Cooler temperatures and high pressure anomalies prevail in the lower troposphere, and a frontal zone forms in the upper troposphere. These different circulation anomalies further induce a three-cell circulation anomaly pattern over North America in the warm and cold phases of the AMO. In particular, during the cold phase, the three-cell circulation anomaly pattern features a broad region of anomalous low-level southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico into the U.S. Great Plains. Superimposed with an upper-troposphere front, more frequent summertime storms develop and excess precipitation occurs over most of North America. A nearly reversed condition occurs during the warm phase of the AMO, yielding drier conditions in North America. This new understanding provides a foundation for further study and better prediction of the variations of North American summer precipitation, especially when modulated by other multidecadal variations—for example, the Pacific decadal oscillation and interannual variations associated with the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation.

Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that during the mid-Holocene epoch (about 6000 yr ago) North America and North Africa were significantly drier and wetter, respectively, than at present. Modeling efforts to attribute these differences to changes in orbital parameters and greenhouse gas (GHG) levels have had limited success, especially over North America. In this study, the importance of a possibly cooler tropical Pacific Ocean during the epoch (akin to a permanent La Niña–like perturbation to the present climate) in causing these differences is emphasized. Systematic sets of atmospheric general circulation model experiments, with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific basin and an interactive mixed layer ocean elsewhere, are performed. Given the inadequacies of current fully coupled climate models in simulating the tropical Pacific climate, this intermediate coupling model configuration is argued to be more suitable for quantifying the contributions of the altered orbital forcing, GHG levels, and tropical Pacific SST conditions to the different mid-Holocene climates. The simulated responses in this configuration are in fact generally more consistent with the available evidence from paleovegetation and sedimentary records. Coupling to the mixed layer ocean enhances the wind–evaporation–SST feedback over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The net response to the orbital changes is to shift the North Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) northward, and make North Africa wetter. The response to the reduced GHG levels opposes, but does not eliminate, these changes. The northward-shifted ITCZ also blocks the moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico into North America. This drying tendency is greatly amplified by the local response to La Niña–like conditions in the tropical Pacific. Consistent with the paleoclimatic evidence, the simulated North American drying is also most pronounced in the growing (spring) season.

Regional climate simulations are conducted using the Polar fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with a 60-km horizontal resolution domain over North America to explore the summer climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 000 calendar years ago), when much of the continent was covered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). Output from a tailored NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) simulation of the LGM climate is used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions for Polar MM5. LGM boundary conditions include continental ice sheets, appropriate orbital forcing, reduced CO2 concentration, paleovegetation, modified sea surface temperatures, and lowered sea level. The simulated LGM summer climate is characterized by a pronounced low-level thermal gradient along the southern margin of the LIS resulting from the juxtaposition of the cold ice sheet and adjacent warm ice-free land surface. This sharp thermal gradient anchors the midtropospheric jet stream and facilitates the development of synoptic cyclones that track over the ice sheet, some of which produce copious liquid precipitation along and south of the LIS terminus. Precipitation on the southern margin is orographically enhanced as moist southerly low-level flow (resembling a contemporary Great Plains low-level jet configuration) in advance of the cyclone is drawn up the ice sheet slope. Composites of wet and dry periods on the LIS southern margin illustrate two distinctly different atmospheric flow regimes. Given the episodic nature of the summer rain events, it may be possible to reconcile the model depiction of wet conditions on the LIS southern margin during the LGM summer with the widely accepted interpretation of aridity across the Great Plains based on geological proxy evidence.

A study has been made of the dynamic interactions between the surface layer of the ocean and the atmosphere using a climate model that contains a new approach to predicting the sea surface temperature (SST). The atmospheric conditions are simulated numerically with the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). The SST is determined by a modified Kraus–Turner-type one-dimensional mixed layer ocean model (MLOM) for the upper ocean that has been coupled to CCM3. The MLOM simulates vertical ocean dynamics and demonstrates the effects of the seasonal variation of mixed layer depth and convective instability on the SST. A purely thermodynamic slab ocean model (SOM) is currently available for use with CCM3 to predict the SST. A large-scale ocean general circulation model (OGCM) may also be coupled to CCM3; however, the OGCM is computationally intensive and is therefore not a good tool for conducting multiple sensitivity studies. The MLOM provides an alternative to the SOM that contains seasonally and spatially specified mixed layer depths. The SOM also contains a heat flux correction called Q-flux that crudely accounts for ocean heat transport by artificially specifying a heat flux that forces the SOM to replicate the observed SST. The results of the coupled MLOM–CCM3 reveal that the MLOM may be used on a global scale and can therefore replace the standard coupled SOM–CCM3 that contains no explicit ocean dynamics. Additionally, stand-alone experiments of the MLOM that are forced with realistic winds, heat, and moisture fluxes show that the MLOM closely approximates the observed seasonal cycle of SST.

Barry Saltzman was a giant in the fields of meteorology and climate science. A leading figure in the study of weather and climate for over 40 yr, he has frequently been referred to as the “father of modern climate theory.” Ahead of his time in many ways, Saltzman made significant contributions to our understanding of the general circulation and spectral energetics budget of the atmosphere, as well as climate change across a wide spectrum of time scales. In his endeavor to develop a unified theory of how the climate system works, he played a role in the development of energy balance models, statistical dynamical models, and paleoclimate dynamical models. He was a pioneer in developing meteorologically motivated dynamical systems, including the progenitor of Lorenz’s famous chaos model. In applying his own dynamical-systems approach to long-term climate change, he recognized the potential for using atmospheric general circulation models in a complimentary way. In 1998, he was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby medal, the highest honor of the American Meteorological Society “for his life-long contributions to the study of the global circulation and the evolution of the earth’s climate.” In this paper, the authors summarize and place into perspective some of the most significant contributions that Barry Saltzman made during his long and distinguished career. This short review also serves as an introduction to the papers in this special issue of the Journal of Climate dedicated to Barry’s memory.

A coupled mixed layer–atmospheric general circulation model has been used to evaluate the impact of ocean thermocline temperatures (and by proxy those of the deep ocean) on the surface climate of the earth. Particular attention has been devoted to temperature regimes both warmer and cooler than at present. The mixed layer ocean model (MLOM) simulates vertical dynamics and thermodynamics in the upper ocean, including wind mixing and buoyancy effects, and has been coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). Simulations were made with globally uniform thermocline warmings of +2°, +5°, and +10°C, as well as a globally uniform cooling of −5°C. A simulation was made with latitudinally varying changes in thermocline temperature such that the warming at mid- and high latitudes is much larger than at low latitudes. In all simulations, the response of surface temperature over both land and ocean was larger than that expected just as a result of the imposed thermocline temperature change, largely because of water vapor feedbacks. In this respect, the simulations were similar to those in which only changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide were imposed. In fact, when carbon dioxide was explicitly changed along with thermocline temperatures, the results were not much different than if only the thermocline temperatures were altered. Land versus ocean differences are explained largely by latent heat flux differences: the ocean is an infinite evaporative source, while land can be quite dry. The latitudinally varying case has a much larger response at mid- to high latitudes than at low latitudes; the high latitudes actually appear to effectively warm the low latitudes. Simulations exploring scenarios of glacial inception suggest that the deep ocean alone is not likely to be a key trigger but must operate in conjunction with other forcings, such as reduced carbon dioxide. Moist upland regions at mid- and high latitudes, and land regions adjacent to perennial sea ice, are the preferred locations for glacial inception in these runs. Finally, the model combination equilibrates very rapidly, meaning that a large number of simulations can be made for a fairly modest computational cost. A drawback to this is greatly reduced sensitivity to parameters such as atmospheric carbon dioxide, which requires a full response of the ocean. Thus, this approach can be considered intermediate between fixing, or prescribing, sea surface temperatures and a fully coupled modeling approach.

General circulation models (GCMs) designed for projecting climatic change have exhibited a wide range of sensitivity. Therefore, projected surface warming with increasing CO2 varies considerably depending on which model is used. Despite notable advances in computing power and modeling techniques that have occurred over the past decade, uncertainties of model sensitivity have not been reduced accordingly. The sensitivity issue is investigated by examining two GCMs of very different modeling techniques and sensitivity, with attention focused on how moisture processes are treated in these models, how moisture simulations are affected by these processes, and how well these simulations compare to the observed and analyzed moisture field. Both GCMs predict increases of atmospheric moisture with doubled CO2, but the increment predicted by one model is substantially higher (approximately twice) than that predicted by the other. This same difference is seen in responses of the boundary layer diffusive moistening rate. Calculations with a radiative–convective model indicate that the differences in predicted equilibrium atmospheric moisture, including both column amount and vertical distribution, have contributed to the largest differences in model sensitivity between the two models. We argue that in order for climate models to be credible for prediction purposes, they must possess credible skills of simulating surface and boundary layer processes, which likely holds the key to overall moisture performance, its response to external forcing, and in turn to model sensitivity.

Optimized regional climate simulations are conducted using the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University‐NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), with a 60-km horizontal resolution domain over North America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 calendar years ago), when much of the continent was covered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). The objective is to describe the LGM annual cycle at high spatial resolution with an emphasis on the winter atmospheric circulation. Output from a tailored NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) simulation of the LGM climate is used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions for Polar MM5. LGM boundary conditions include continental ice sheets, appropriate orbital forcing, reduced CO2 concentration, paleovegetation, modified sea surface temperatures, and lowered sea level. Polar MM5 produces a substantially different atmospheric response to the LGM boundary conditions than CCM3 and other recent GCM simulations. In particular, from November to April the upper-level flow is split around a blocking anticyclone over the LIS, with a northern branch over the Canadian Arctic and a southern branch impacting southern North America. The split flow pattern is most pronounced in January and transitions into a single, consolidated jet stream that migrates northward over the LIS during summer. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the winter split flow in Polar MM5 is primarily due to mechanical forcing by LIS, although model physics and resolution also contribute to the simulated flow configuration. Polar MM5 LGM results are generally consistent with proxy climate estimates in the western United States, Alaska, and the Canadian Arctic and may help resolve some long-standing discrepancies between proxy data and previous simulations of the LGM climate.

Global climate simulations are conducted to examine the sensitivity of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate to prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that are modified from the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) study. Based on the consensus from various LGM proxy data, the SSTs are cooled by 48C uniformly in the Tropics (308N‐308S) relative to CLIMAP, and the high-latitude sea ice extent is reduced. Compared to results from a simulation with CLIMAP SSTs, the modified LGM SSTs cause significant opposing changes in the hemispheric and regional-scale atmospheric circulation, which are most pronounced in the winter hemisphere. For instance, there is significant weakening of the midlatitude circulation and reduction of 500-hPa eddy kinetic energy and midlatitude precipitation resulting from the decreased meridional temperature gradient in the modified SST simulation. In contrast, reduced sea ice extent during the boreal winter causes increased regional baroclinicity and intensified atmospheric circulation in the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic. Cooled tropical SSTs also increase the land‐ocean temperature contrast, which strengthens the Asian summer monsoon circulation. Both LGM simulations produce enhanced low-level convergence and increased precipitation along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) relative to present day, despite the cooler LGM climate. The SPCZ orientation and intensity are closely linked to the distribution of South Pacific SSTs. Comparison of surface temperature estimates from land- and ocean-based proxy data with model output suggests that uniform cooling of the tropical SSTs and modification of the high-latitude sea ice extent may be sufficient to accurately simulate the first-order characteristics of the LGM climate.

A set of model runs was made with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3) to investigate and help assess the relative roles of snow cover anomalies and initial atmospheric states on the subsequent accumulation and ablation seasons. In order to elucidate the physical mechanisms responsible for the large impact in one case but small impact in the other, two experiments with CCM3 were made that imposed an exaggerated initial snow cover [1-m snow water equivalent (SWE)] over the western U.S. domain. One run was started on 1 December, the other on 1 February. These runs made it clear that the high albedo of snow was the dominant physical process. An additional set of runs with realistic yearly snow anomalies was also made. Results suggest that for runs starting in February (late winter), the initial prescription of snow cover is more important than the initial atmospheric state in determining the subsequent evolution of snow cover. For runs starting in December (early winter), the results are less clear, with neither the initial snow cover nor the initial state of the atmosphere appearing to be the dominant factor. In February, when the sun is relatively high in the sky and days are longer, the albedo effect is a dominant factor; while in December the sun was too low in the sky and days too short for the albedo effect to be important. As the winter season progressed, the subsequent accumulation of snow eliminated the effects of the initial December anomalies.

The year to year variability in North China's summertime hydrologic cycle is analyzed in a 100-yr CCM1 simulation. Eastern North America is included for comparative purposes with earlier work. On the basis of the simulated inherent variability of the regionally averaged soil moisture, each year's climate pattern over these two regions is classified into one of three regimes: normal, dry, and wet. Features of the hydrologic cycle, the related large-scale atmospheric circulation, and the water budget are examined for each of the three defined climate regimes for each region. The relative importance of mechanisms leading to soil moisture anomalies over North China is found to he different from that over eastern North America. For North China, precipitation anomalies, which are related to large-scale circulation, appear to be relatively more important in determining soil moisture, and the preceding springtime soil moisture is of less importance. For eastern North America, the preceding springtime soi...

Paleoclimatic data and climate model simulations have demonstrated that orbitally forced changes in solar radiation can have a pronounced effect on global climate. Key questions remain, however, about the spatial patterns in the climatic sensitivity to these changes in solar radiation. The authors use GCM simulations of Kutzbach and Guetter and Prell and Kutzbach that were made with the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM), version CCM0. The results of these simulations are employed to compute linear equilibrium sensitivity coefficients and jackknife uncertainties relating the response of key climate variables to orbitally forced changes in solar radiation. The spatial distributions of the sensitivities and the corresponding uncertainties reveal the synoptic patterns of climate response for these climate variables and identify areas of high and low sensitivity. The sensitivity of CCM0 to solar radiation changes such as those experienced during the Quaternary is large and predominately linear for ma...

Previous results concerning the role that summertime soil moisture reductions can play in amplifying or maintaining North American droughts are extended to include the role of springtime soil moisture reductions and the role that natural climatic variability, as expressed in soil moisture, can play. General circulation model (GCM) simulations with the NCAR Community Climate Model have been made with initial desert-like soil moisture anomalies imposed on 1 May and on 1 March. The May simulation maintained the imposed anomaly throughout the summer, while in the March simulation the anomaly was ameliorated within one month. Thus, the timing of soil moisture reductions may be crucial. A 10-year model control integration with prescribed sea surface temperatures yielded 1 year with late spring and summer soil moisture values similar to those of the 1 May anomaly simulation. This suggests that occasional widespread North American droughts may be an inherent feature of at least the GCM employed for this study. The results also demonstrate the important role played by moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico in modulating or ameliorating drought conditions for much of the south-central United States, a topic that requires considerable further investigation.

Numerical sensitivity experiments on the effects of soil moisture on North American summertime climate are performed using a 12-layer global atmospheric general circulation model. Consideration is given to the hypothesis that reduced soil moisture may induce and amplify warm, dry summers of midlatitude continental interiors. The simulations resemble the conditions of the summer of 1988, including an extensive drought over much of North America. It is found that a reduction in soil moisture leads to an increase in surface temperature, lower surface pressure, increased ridging aloft, and a northward shift of the jet stream. It is shown that low-level moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico is important in the maintenance of persistent soil moisture deficits.