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El Niño is known to affect Arctic temperature. However, the robustness of the observed relationship between El Niño and Arctic temperature remains debated. Here we reexamine the impacts of El Niño on the Arctic temperature in boreal winter [December–February (DJF)] using reanalysis datasets and atmospheric model experiments. This study shows that extreme El Niño events are accompanied by significant boreal winter cooling over northeastern Canada and Greenland (NECG), while moderate eastern Pacific (MEP) El Niño events are accompanied by significant boreal winter warming in this region. For central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, a cold signal appears in NECG, but with no statistical significance. During extreme El Niño winters, a positive Pacific–North America (PNA)-like pattern is seen in the Pacific, and anomalously negative 200-hPa geopotential height (Z200) strengthening occurs over NECG, which is a response to anomalous strong wave activity originating in the tropical Pacific. El Niño–induced circulation anomalies can further induce NECG cooling via cold temperature advection and decreased downward longwave radiation. In contrast, for the MEP El Niño, the subtropical jet extends zonally from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic, which is accompanied by increased baroclinicity anomalies and favors the propagation of synoptic eddies into the Atlantic, leading to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern. This in turn could further enhance the positive Z200 anomalies over NECG, resulting in anomalous warming in NECG through warm temperature advection and enhanced downward longwave radiation. A series of atmospheric model experiments simulates the observed circulation changes and associated warming over NECG. Significance Statement: This work investigates the different impacts of the three El Niño types on regional Arctic wintertime temperature anomalies based on observations and model experiments. The impacts of El Niño events on northeastern Canada and Greenland temperatures during boreal winter show distinct differences between extreme El Niño and moderate EP El Niño events. These distinct differences can be attributed to the different atmospheric circulation patterns induced by different SST patterns, which can lead to warm (cold) temperature advection and enhanced (decreased) downward longwave radiation. These results highlight the different impacts of extreme and moderate EP El Niños on Arctic temperatures and provide an improved understanding of the impact of El Niños on the Arctic climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the influence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on the multidecadal variability of winter surface air temperature in arid central Asia (ACASAT). Apart from a long-term warming trend, the observational analysis shows that the winter ACASAT exhibits a significant multidecadal variability, which is characterized by antiphase fluctuations with the AMO. The mechanism for this negative correlation between the AMO and the winter ACASAT is explored from the aspect of wave teleconnection. The AMO provides energy for the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern at middle and low altitudes by regulating the high-altitude wave train over the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, and thus has an impact on the remote climate in arid central Asia. Results from the linear baroclinic model (LBM) provide evidence for the linkage between the AMO and the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern. When the AMO is in its warm periods, the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern is in a positive phase, which further makes the cold air from the northeast strengthen, leading to the anomalously colder surface air temperature in arid central Asia. Based on the relationship that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) leads the AMO by 15–20 years, it is further found that there is a leading relationship between the NAO and the winter ACASAT via the AMO. On this basis, an empirical model using the NAO as a predictor was established to predict the ACASAT, and the empirical model shows good hindcast performance. Results from the model show that the winter ACASAT will continue to rise in the next 10 years and decline after 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) pattern, called the Asia–Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension–North America (AKNA) pattern, is identified over the pan–North Pacific region (85°E–85°W, 25°–65°N) based on NCEP reanalysis data. The AKNA pattern is likely to influence the climate of the extratropical area of Asia and North America via two SAT dipoles and has a significant impact on the wintertime extremely cold weather along the eastern coastal regions of East Asia. Simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model indicate that wintertime sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension (KOE) region can force an equivalent barotropic atmospheric ridge downstream and weaken the Siberian high and Alaska atmospheric ridge, resulting in the formation of the AKNA pattern. This circulation pattern tends to intensify the midlatitude (40°–60°N) westerlies over East Asia, which inhibits the southward invasion of the cold air into southern East Asia. Further diagnostic analysis indicates that the KOE SSTa can modulate the variation of storm track and westerlies by affecting baroclinic instability and eddy–mean flow interaction. Moreover, the KOE SSTa can provide a favorable environment for the development of the local atmospheric ascending motion and secondary circulation across the KOE SSTa, thereby affecting variability of the free atmosphere. Significance Statement: This study aims to build a connection between the wintertime extratropical climate and the variation of the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension. This work isolated a new wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) pattern over mid–high-latitude Asia and North America, which explains a considerable proportion of cold extremes over the eastern regions of East Asia. The reanalysis data and model simulations indicate that the temporal variability of the SAT pattern is influenced by the change of sea surface temperature in the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension. These findings emphasize the important role of midlatitude air–sea interaction in the modulation of the mid–high-latitude climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the East Asian winter climate by modifying the atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP). While the impact on precipitation in southeastern China has been extensively studied, the ENSO signal in surface air temperature (SAT) remains overlooked. In this paper, we identify robust ENSO footprints in the winter daily minimum SAT in southeastern China, with El Niño winters generally accompanied by warmer-than-normal minimum SAT anomalies. In contrast, the responses of maximum SAT are weak and negligible, suggesting a diurnal cycle–dependent ENSO influence. Further analysis indicates that this diurnal cycle dependence stems primarily from the disparate surface radiative heating between day and night induced by ENSO-related local total cloud cover (TCC) change. The warmer minimum SAT occurring in the early morning of El Niño winters is mainly caused by the enhanced surface downward longwave radiative heating as a result of the TCC increase. However, in the afternoon of El Niño winters, although the anomalous horizontal advection of warm air plays a role, there is surface radiative cooling as the weakening of solar radiation due to TCC reflection overwhelms the increase in downward longwave radiation, which leads to a weakened sensible heat flux and thus has a cooling effect on the SAT. Ultimately, these two processes effectively cancel each other out and together produce insignificant maximum SAT responses. Our conclusions carry important implications for the seasonal to interannual winter climate prediction in southeastern China. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to better understand how ENSO influences winter surface air temperature in southeastern China. Despite insignificant responses of winter daily maximum temperature to ENSO, we find here a robust ENSO influence on the daily minimum temperature, with warm anomalies tending to occur during El Niño events. Further evidence suggests that this diurnal cycle–dependent ENSO influence is mainly caused by ENSO-induced change in local cloudiness, which has a different radiative heating effect between day and night. Our findings are of great importance for improving regional climate prediction, which will benefit social and economic activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts strong powerful thermal forcing, which plays a vital role in influencing weather–climate variations in Asia and even the Northern Hemisphere. However, the causes of thermal variation over the TP have not been fully revealed. Here, the role of winter soil moisture (SM) in subsequent summer thermal anomalies on the TP was investigated through multisource datasets for the period 1979–2014. Results indicate a significant positive relationship (r = 0.52) between winter SM and subsequent summer-mean surface air temperature (SAT). Further investigations show that more (less) winter SM results in abundant (deficient) atmospheric water vapor in subsequent summer owing to its persistence. Furthermore, Earth’s surface energy budget equation confirms that strengthened (weakened) surface downward longwave radiation caused by increased (decreased) water vapor is the dominant factor leading to SAT variations, even more significant for nocturnal SAT. The winter SM–atmospheric temperature positive relationship can extend from the surface to 200 hPa over the TP. In addition, the enhanced (weakened) atmospheric latent heat release associated with increased (decreased) water vapor content may be another important factor contributing to changes in atmospheric temperatures over the TP. Therefore, our results contribute to a better understanding of the effect of land–surface processes on thermal anomalies over the TP. Significance Statement Understanding the causes of thermal anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for weather and climate variations, but the role of winter soil moisture (SM) in subsequent summer thermal effects is largely unknown. This study investigated the relationship between winter SM and thermal anomalies in subsequent summers on the TP. Results show that the above (below)-normal winter SM will cause warm (cold) atmospheric temperatures in the subsequent summer. The above (below)-normal winter SM anomalies bring increased (decreased) atmospheric water vapor in summer owing to its persistence, resulting in strengthened (weakened) downward longwave radiation and atmospheric latent heat release to heat (cool) the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current models for spatial extremes are concerned with the joint upper (or lower) tail of the distribution at two or more locations. Such models cannot account for teleconnection patterns of 2-m surface air temperature (T2m) in North America, where very low temperatures in the contiguous United States may coincide with very high temperatures in Alaska in the wintertime. This dependence between warm and cold extremes motivates the need for a model with opposite-tail dependence in spatial extremes. This work develops a statistical modeling framework that has flexible behavior in all four pairings of high and low extremes at pairs of locations. In particular, we use a mixture of rotations of common Archimedean copulas to capture various combinations of four-corner tail dependence. We study teleconnected T2m extremes using ERA5 of daily average 2-m temperature during the boreal winter. The estimated mixture model quantifies the strength of opposite-tail dependence between warm temperatures in Alaska and cold temperatures in the midlatitudes of North America, as well as the reverse pattern. These dependence patterns are shown to correspond to blocked and zonal patterns of midtropospheric flow. This analysis extends the classical notion of correlation-based teleconnections to considering dependence in higher quantiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The features and causes of the leading intermonth modes of winter surface air temperature anomalies (SATA) over China are investigated, and associated prediction models are developed. The first three intermonth modes of winter SATA over China are obtained by extended empirical orthogonal function (i.e., EEOF1–3) analysis. The results show that EEOF1 represents consistent variations in the whole winter, with a variance contribution of 32.3%, whereas EEOF2 and EEOF3 show spatiotemporally inconsistent changes, and their variance contributions are 16.9% and 12.5%, respectively. EEOF2 has out-of-phase variations between December and January–February, and EEOF3 exhibits a temporal warm–cold alternating pattern, with spatially reversing changes over northwestern and southern China. However, the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) presents a limited prediction skill for winter SATA over China and their intermonth modes. Further investigations indicate that the September sea ice over the Barents–Laptev Seas, the November snow cover over western Europe and East Asia, and the November northern Atlantic sea surface temperature can be, respectively, adopted to develop prediction schemes for the consistent mode (EEOF1 scheme) and two inconsistent modes (EEOF2 and EEOF3 schemes) based on specific mechanisms. These schemes show effective performances in predicting both individual modes and the reconstruction field of SATA over China. The temporal correlation coefficients (TCCs) between cross-validation results and observations are 0.48, 0.51, and 0.31 for the EEOF1–3 modes, respectively (the 90% confidence level is 0.27). For the reconstruction field, the TCCs are 0.40, 0.27, and 0.45 in December, January, and February, respectively, which are much higher than those of the CFSv2 outputs (0.23, −0.16, and −0.09). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main energy input to the polar regions in winter is the advection of warm, moist air from lower latitudes. This makes the polar climate sensitive to the temperature and moisture of extrapolar air. Here, we study this sensitivity from an air-mass transformation perspective. We perform simulations of an idealized maritime air mass brought into contact with sea ice employing a three-dimensional large-eddy simulation model coupled to a one-dimensional multilayer sea ice model. We study the response of cloud dynamics and surface warming during the air-mass transformation process to varying initial temperature and humidity conditions of the air mass. We find in all cases that a mixed-phase cloud is formed, initially near the surface but rising continuously with time. Surface warming of the sea ice is driven by downward longwave surface fluxes, which are largely controlled by the temperature and optical depth of the cloud. Cloud temperature, in turn, is robustly constrained by the initial dewpoint temperature of the air mass. Since dewpoint only depends on moisture, the overall result is that surface warming depends almost exclusively on initial humidity and is largely independent of initial temperature. We discuss possible climate implications of this result}in particular, for polar amplification of surface warming and the role played by atmospheric energy transports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) generally has an in-phase relationship with surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over Northeast China in late winter. The present study shows that such an NAO–SAT relationship becomes stronger during easterly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), but is relatively weak during westerly phases. Observational evidence reveals that the modulation effect of the QBO on the NAO–SAT relationship over Northeast China is attributable to QBO-induced changes in the spatial structure of the NAO and associated stratosphere–troposphere coupling. During easterly QBO phases, the NAO has a strong connection with the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, facilitating a hemisphere-wide structure of the NAO and thus a downstream extension of NAO signal from the Euro–Atlantic sector toward Northeast Asia. During westerly QBO phases, however, the NAO has a limited connection with the stratospheric polar vortex. In this case, the NAO features a classically regional mode, with the signal in the SAT field mainly confined to the Euro-Atlantic sector. By examining historical simulations from six climate models participating in CMIP6 and including stratospheric processes, it is found that none of these models captures a significant difference in the spatial structure of the NAO and its connection with the stratospheric polar vortex between the easterly and westerly QBO phases in late winter. A key reason may be related to the poor performance of the models in simulating the Holton–Tan effect, which is critical for linking the QBO and NAO. Significance Statement: The QBO is the dominant mode of equatorial stratospheric variability and important for seasonal forecasting. This study aims to better understand the surface influence of the QBO by examining the relationship between the NAO and temperature anomalies over China according to the phases of the QBO during boreal winter. Our results highlight the importance of the QBO in modulating the spatial structure and thus climate impact of the NAO via stratosphere–troposphere coupling in observations, while state-of-the-art climate models perform poorly in simulating the QBO-related stratosphere–troposphere coupling and thus the QBO–NAO connection. These findings have important implications for seasonal prediction and model development in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key processes associated with the leading intraseasonal variability mode of wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasia and the Arctic region are investigated in this study. Characterized by a dipole distribution in SAT anomalies centered over north Eurasia and the Arctic, respectively, and coherent temperature anomalies vertically extending from the surface to 300 hPa, this leading intraseasonal SAT mode and associated circulation have pronounced influences on global surface temperature anomalies including the East Asian winter monsoon region. By taking advantage of realistic simulations of the intraseasonal SAT mode in a global climate model, it is illustrated that temperature anomalies in the troposphere associated with the leading SAT mode are mainly due to dynamic processes, especially via the horizontal advection of winter mean temperature by intraseasonal circulation. While the cloud–radiative feedback is not critical in sustaining the temperature variability in the troposphere, it is found to play a crucial role in coupling temperature anomalies at the surface and in the free atmosphere through anomalous surface downward longwave radiation. The variability in clouds associated with the intraseasonal SAT mode is closely linked to moisture anomalies generated by similar advective processes as for temperature anomalies. Model experiments suggest that this leading intraseasonal SAT mode can be sustained by internal atmospheric processes in the troposphere over the mid- to high latitudes by excluding forcings from Arctic sea ice variability, tropical convective variability, and the stratospheric processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the characteristics and climate impacts of the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) over the western North Pacific (WNP) in boreal winter based on observational and reanalysis data and numerical experiments with a simplified model. The wintertime convection over the WNP is dominated by significant biweekly variability with a 10–20-day period, which explains about 66% of the intraseasonal variability. Its leading mode on the biweekly time scale is a northwestward-propagating convection dipole over the WNP, which oscillates over a period of about 12 days. When the convection-active center of this QBWO is located to the east of the Philippines, it can generate an anticyclonic vorticity source to the south of Japan via inducing upper-tropospheric divergence and excite a Rossby wave train propagating toward North America along the Pacific rim. The resultant lower-tropospheric circulation facilitates cold advection and leads to cold anomalies over central North America in the following week. This result highlights a cause–effect relationship between the WNP convection and the North American climate on the quasi-biweekly time scale and may provide some prediction potential for the North American climate. Significance Statement: This study establishes a cause–effect relationship between the wintertime western North Pacific convection and the central North American air temperature on the quasi-biweekly time scale. In boreal winter, the convection over the western North Pacific oscillates significantly with a 10–20-day period. When the convection is active, it can disturb the atmosphere to the south of Japan and excite a midlatitude Rossby wave train. The latter propagates along the North Pacific rim and leads to cold spells over central North America within one week. This information connects the climate variability across the Pacific and provides an additional subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction potential for the North American winter climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western Pacific pattern (WP) is one of the most important atmospheric teleconnections over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in boreal winter and plays key roles in regulating weather and climate variations over many parts of the NH. This study evaluates the ability of the coupled models participating in CMIP5 and CMIP6 to capture the spatial pattern, dominant frequency, and associated climate anomalies of the winter WP. Ensemble means of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models well capture spatial structures of the WP, with slightly higher skills for the CMIP6. However, the northern (southern) center of the WP is shifted westward (eastward) relative to the observations, and the strength of the northern center is overestimated in most CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. CMIP6 shows an improvement in simulating the dominant periodicity of the WP. WP-related climatic anomalies in most parts of the NH can be well simulated. However, there exists a large spread across the models in simulating surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in the Russian Far East and northwest North America, which is attributable to the diversity of the intensity of the WP's northern lobe. Most CMIP5 and CMIP6 models largely overestimate the WP-related precipitation anomalies over Siberia, which is partly due to the overestimation of mean precipitation there. Furthermore, most models simulate a close relation of the WP and Arctic Oscillation (AO), which does not exist in observation. The CMIP5 and CMIP6 models with weak WP–AO relations have better ability than the models with strong WP–AO relations in capturing the WP-related SAT and precipitation anomalies over the NH, especially over Eurasia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the characteristics and physical mechanisms of the multidecadal variations in the East Asian winter (December–February) monsoon (EAWM) since 1850 based on multiple observational and reanalysis datasets. The results indicate that the EAWM undergoes multidecadal weakening during the periods of 1869–1919 and 1986–2004 but strengthening during the period of 1920–85. Similar evolutions can be observed in the time series of the area-averaged winter surface air temperature over East Asia. Associated with the EAWM multidecadal variations, a quasi-barotropic Rossby wave train originating from the subtropical North Atlantic propagating across the Eurasian continent to Northeast Asia also experiences phase shifting at the same time. In its positive phase, the low-level anticyclonic anomaly over the northern Eurasian continent causes a stronger Siberian high; the mid- and high-level cyclonic anomalies over Northeast Asia deepen the East Asian trough and strengthen the East Asian jet stream, respectively. Thus, the positive phase of the wave train is conducive to stronger EAWMs and vice versa. The diagnostic analysis of the Rossby wave source indicates that the upper-tropospheric divergence anomalies over the North Atlantic can favor the excitation of this wave train, and the feedback forcing of high-frequency eddies plays important roles in its maintenance. In addition, the phase shifting of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) can induce a similar Rossby wave train across the Eurasian continent, through which it further modulates the multidecadal variations in the EAWM. Warm phases of the AMO are favorable for a stronger EAWM and colder midlatitude Eurasian continent and vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Superimposed on a warming trend, Arctic winter surface air temperature (SAT) exhibits substantial interannual variability, the underlying mechanisms of which are unclear, especially with regard to the role of sea ice variations and atmospheric processes. Here, atmospheric reanalysis data and idealized atmospheric model simulations are used to reveal the mechanisms by which sea ice variations and atmospheric anomalous conditions affect interannual variations in wintertime Arctic SAT. Results show that near-surface interannual warming in the Arctic is accompanied by comparable warming throughout large parts of the Arctic troposphere and large-scale anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns. Within the Arctic, changes in large-scale atmospheric circulations due to internal atmospheric variability explain a substantial fraction of interannual variation in SAT and tropospheric temperatures, which lead to an increase in moisture and downward longwave radiation, with the rest likely coming from sea ice–related and other surface processes. Arctic winter sea ice loss allows the ocean to release more heat and moisture, which enhances Arctic warming; however, this effect on SAT is confined to the ice-retreat area and has a limited influence on large-scale atmospheric circulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]