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Abstract: Sustainable residential energy consumption involves a complex, socially embedded and socially constructed market. A system dynamics approach has been used to explore the short, medium and long term impact of different national consumer-oriented energy efficiency policies in the residential building sector. In this paper the system dynamics model has been validated by a case study using historical data from a subsidy scheme and accompanying policy measures in Latvia. Results obtained by the validity tests showed that the model generated behaviour is consistent with available data and is capable of generating “the right behaviour for the right reasons”. Simulation results show that national energy efficiency goals cannot be met by 2016 and the absence of major consumer-oriented policy tools slows down the diffusion process of energy efficiency projects. It also highlights that system dynamics has a high potential to be used for sustainable end-use energy policy planning at both national and sub-sectoral levels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The need for substitution of fossil resources with renewable alternatives, for an efficient use of the bio-resources, and for the development of knowledge-intensive sustainable economies call for the design of policies to create and govern biotechonomic systems. The goal of this study is to create a tool to facilitate such policy design, - aimed at the development of biotechonomic systems by use of a system dynamics model. This model constitutes a general framework for the representation of critical biotechonomic sectors; their land use, production and consumption of raw material, research and development, investments in and utilization of production capacities (i.e. capital investments), their utilization of labour, finances (value creation, capital and operating costs and profit), and sustainability. A sustainability index, based on emergy is applied to assess the environmental performance of the various sectors considered. Moreover, the model is operational and lends itself to the simulation of the development of these sectors, both past and future. This model may be applied to a variety of biotechonomic sectors and extends to the cyclical economy at large. As the purpose of this model is to facilitate the development and testing of policies, the model allows for the inclusion of structural components that represent such policies, including the extension of production lines, the utilization of taxes and subsidies to modify the land use and to encourage the redirection of materials, and support for the investment in research, development and capital. Model is applied to example of birch use as raw material. Results show that model framework can be applied to micro, meso and macro level planning and policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some eco-innovations have already reached a mature state, but they diffuse slowly. There is little known about the importance of various factors on the diffusion process of eco-innovations. The aim of this research is to propose a conceptual model for eco-innovation diffusion, where particular case study of eco-innovation – micro-fibre cloth (MFC) for surface cleaning purposes – is given. The work will study the relative importance of various motivations on diffusion processes as well as the influence of information campaigns. This novel methodology has been developed under the system dynamics framework and is coupled with the logistic regression model. Structural validation tests were done for the proposed model. The methodology is proposed, then the integrated empirical study and system dynamics model are completed. The results of the logistic regression models show that the overall attitudes and social influence has the most dominant impact on intention to use the studied eco-innovation products. The most sensitive parameters in the system dynamics model were found to be the adoption faction of information received by word-of-mouth, households adopting micro fibre cloth at the beginning of the simulation, and the contact rate per household. The proposed methodology, and developed mathematical model can also be used as the basis for other studies of other diffusion processes, since system dynamics modelling is a white-box modelling approach, and the structure of the model can be enhanced with the latest results from other studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much study in recent years has focused on hazardous waste management, where one of the hazardous waste streams includes portable waste batteries. The main aim of the research is to explore both the short and long term effects of a collection scheme of portable waste batteries on the environment. To this end, a system dynamics model has been built to examine how the physical processes and information flows interrelate in the structure of a dynamic system, and how this structure generates dynamic behaviour over time. A collection scheme in operation in Belgium was used as the case study. The model developed sheds light on the structure of the system and shows that important feedback is missing compared to other types of battery collection models. Firstly, the model showed that the level of the levy on the price is not linked to the achieved collection goal. Secondly, the other missing feedback is between effectiveness of the information campaign and the costs related to these awareness-increasing activities. The model developed could be an important aid for policy makers in assessing the efficacy of policy tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using biowaste as a resource is required in order to meet the EU common objectives for waste management. Biowaste management should be considered from the economic, environmental, and social perspectives. The resulting complexity constitutes an important barrier to the implementation of biowaste planning projects. The goal of this study is to propose an effective tool to assess, compare, and select the best biowaste management alternatives for stakeholders. In order to reach research goal a methodological approach based on the combination of Multi-Criteria Analysis and System Dynamics method is proposed. The aim of the proposed method implemented in a modelling tool is mainly addressed to policy and decision makers specifically (1) to evaluate biowaste management options, (2) to assess the sustainability of bioenergy projects, and (3) to find an optimal solution for biowaste treatment given the conditions in a particular region. The proposed method can help to structure and assess complex problems while both responding to the interests of multiple stakeholders and avoiding the weaknesses of other evaluation techniques. The method has been applied to a case study involving the three Baltic States – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. The results obtained showed that separate collection and Anaerobic Digestion of biowaste is the best solution in all three Baltic States. Other acceptable options include incineration with energy recovery and Mechanical Biological Treatment with Anaerobic Digestion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decarbonisation of transport has become central to European Union policy. Biofuels are expected to represent a substantial part of the overall strategy towards diversifying Europe's energy supplies and curbing greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. This research deals with the dynamic simulation modeling of a biodiesel market as a part of transportation fuel market and analyses of various policy support instruments on increasing the proportion of biofuel in total transport fuel demand. The study is carried out for Latvia's road transport sector. After it had experienced generous financial support from the government allowing the industry to develop, support was abruptly stopped creating stagnation in both biodiesel supply and demand. This threatened the national transport policy goals. The goal of this research is to find the most effective policy strategies for achieving the national transport policy goals by applying system dynamics modeling to the current market conditions of transport fuels.. Specifically, the primary focus of this paper is an attempt to gain insight into the long-term dynamic behavior of the biodiesel market in Latvia. The principal policy tools and mechanisms implemented can be summarized as: i) state subsidies at different levels and stages (i.e. the biodiesel production sector, the agricultural sector, and the end consumer sectors), ii) increasing the excise taxes on fossil fuels, iii) increasing the share of the biodiesel in the transportation fuel blend. The results obtained from model simulations confirm that promoting biofuel acceptance among end-users is the primary key issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The efficiency of renewable bioresources is becoming increasingly important. Along with the European Union's Green Deal and plans to decouple economic growth and prosperity from resource consumption, a new way of thinking must be adopted. Resource efficiency is no longer limited to electricity, heat or non-renewable resources. Previous studies have described the classification of the value of bioresources, which is usually formed as a pyramid depicting the values of the obtained products and the demand for their volume. The approach of the circular economy in the bioeconomy with its principles - reuse, recycle and regenerate - is also widely described in the scientific literature. Combining these two approaches, we created a bioresource utilization index, which would show the efficiency of bioresource use in an enterprise, along with the enterprise's contribution to the bioeconomy. In open interviews with representatives from multiple companies, we identified bioresource flows and mapped the factors that influence these flows in an enterprise. The proposed bioresource utilization index gives an insight into resource efficiency in a specific enterprise by quantifying the incoming raw material, the outgoing product, by-products, and waste. The elucidated factor nexus could be used as a map for easier detection of place for improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]