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Cities consume most of the global energy and account for approximately 75% of global CO 2 emissions. Moreover, resource-based cities tend to consume higher amounts of fossil fuel and produce higher carbon emissions than other cities, whereas there are still insufficiencies about energy carbon reduction in resource-based cities in developed urban agglomerations. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the energy planning of such cities to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and this is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality in urban agglomerations. This study aims to apply a scenario-based analysis approach to a resource-based heavy industrial city in China, Tangshan, based on the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning model, to explore Tangshan's future energy consumption, generation, and associated carbon emissions from 2010 to 2050. The impacts of different energy policies are analyzed for the Tangshan energy system by considering four scenarios. Under each scenario, energy consumption increased steadily by 2050, but the growth rate is different. The business as usual scenario is the fastest, and the low-carbon scenario is the slowest. In the comprehensive and integrated low-carbon transition scenarios, CO 2 is expected to peak at 298.34 million tons (Mt) in 2028. The main industrial sectors of Tangshan with high output value, high energy consumption, and high carbon emissions include smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, petroleum processing and coking, raw chemical materials and chemical products, etc. Combining Tangshan's coal resource endowment, the development of renewable energy, and introducing advanced technology can effectively reduce carbon emissions and increase the diversity of energy supply. We analyzed the cost-benefit of the energy system and found that the implementation of carbon capture and storage technology could effectively reduce carbon emissions by 219.62 Mt and increased costs by 563.12 billion yuan. The research could provide a scientific basis for the medium and long-term energy sustainable transformation of resource-based cities, especially for resource-based cities in urban agglomerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Revealing the long-term development trajectory and peak scenarios of the urban residential building sector is crucial for formulating targeted emission reduction strategies and contributing to achieving the "Dual carbon" target. Given that, significant variables affecting carbon emissions from urban residential buildings (URBCE) at both macro and end-use building levels are identified in this study. Furthermore, an innovative dynamic simulation model is developed by integrating the Monte Carlo simulation model with the Kaya identity model, taking into account the uncertainties of the variables. Subsequently, the long-term evolution trajectories, potential emission peaks, and peak time of the URBCE close to 2060 in China's hot summer and cold winter (HSCW) zone are simulated. Results indicate that URBCE is expected to reach its peak of 272.43 Mt CO 2 in 2040 under the baseline scenario. Through the dynamic simulation, the probable peak time of energy consumption in the HSCW zone is 2044 (±1.85), with a peak of 145.42 (±6.91) Mtce, and the possible peak time of carbon emissions is probably 2039 (±1.60), with a peak of 271.93 (±13.40) Mt CO 2. According to dynamic sensitivity analysis, carbon emission factor, per capita residential space, and heating energy intensity can promote the peak size and timing. These findings lay a robust foundation for the formulation of regionally specific carbon reduction targets and initiatives. Dynamic simulation results of peaking time and peak value of URBEC and URBCE. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water production, utilization and recycle in urban system associated with a large amount of energy consumption and carbon emission that has increasingly international attention under sustainable development goals. In this study, a comprehensive urban water resources system management model is proposed under water-energy-carbon nexus and multiple uncertainties. The water-energy-carbon nexus was reflected in the processes of water extraction, water production and sewage treatment, and two objectives of maximizing the system benefit and minimizing carbon emission is transformed into two linear programming problem through the dual-objective interval fractional programming. Considering the interaction among water supply/demand, pollutants discharge control, energy consumption and self-energy utilization, indirect carbon emission as the main constraints, the developed model is applied to a typical water and energy sources shortage area of Qingdao city in north China. Multiple scenarios related to energy consumption and carbon emission control are designed to search the relationship among energy consumption, carbon emission and water resources allocation schemes. The results indicated that water demand as the main driving factor of energy consumption and carbon emission in urban water system cannot be directly limited through water supply structure adjustment. Through introducing self-energy supply (sludge utilization) and energy consumption control, water resources allocation schemes and water supply structure would be changed to improve energy saving potential with an obvious decrease trend of carbon emission intensity from 0.7921 tCO 2 /MWh to 0.5544 tCO 2 /MWh. The model could effectively provide reasonable urban water system management strategies under different water allocation demands and carbon emission challenges scenarios and deal with multiple uncertainties in decision-making process. [Display omitted] • Urban water resources system brings ecological environment issues. • A comprehensive urban water resources system management model is proposed. • Maximizing the economic benefits of per carbon emission to obtain the scheme. • Sludge utilization and energy consumption control can reduce carbon emission. • The model provides experiences for water-scarce regions around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]