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In this research, a hybrid nonlinear grey-prediction and quota allocation model (HNGP-QAM) was developed for supporting optimal planning of China's carbon intensity reduction at both departmental and provincial levels in 2020. At such dual levels, HNGP-QAM can not only help forecast carbon intensity and its fluctuations over the concerned period, but also facilitate the identification of China's carbon intensity reduction target in 2020 and the corresponding quotas for minimizing the total abatement cost. Two scenarios were developed based on multiple governmental policies and allocation schemes among provinces and departments. The results showed that the total abatement cost would be 92.07 and 98.93 × 10 9 , as well as 180.57 and 194.19 × 10 9 RMB (It is another shortname for China Yuan) for provincial and departmental allocation schemes under the reduction ratios of 40 and 45%, respectively. Furthermore, the west, the east, and the central China would be allocated the emission assignments that would be accounting for 48.53, 28.26, and 23.21% of the total national emission reduction, respectively. The obtained results were particularly useful for multi-level governments in providing information to identify the carbon intensity reduction target, conducting emission reduction assignments among provinces and departments, as well as supporting relevant policy-making. The results also suggested that the developed HNGP-QAM be applicable to similar engineering and planning problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Approximately half of the global population resides in cities and accounts for over 80% of global carbon emissions. To improve efficiency in carbon emission reduction, and enhance adaptability of cities to climate change, it is essential to undertake accounting of urban carbon cycle. This plays a prominent role in global carbon cycle. An integrated accounting framework for urban carbon cycle was established herein to support uniform accounting and place-specific comparisons, covering natural and artificial carbon cycles, vertical and horizontal carbon flows, carbon storage and fluxes, and carbon inputs and outputs. Guangyuan, a mountainous city in China that was seriously stricken by Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, was chosen as the case to demonstrate the framework and investigate the effects of post-earthquake reconstruction on carbon cycle. The results show: 1) the proposed framework could effectively assess dynamics of carbon cycle under external disturbances, 2) there were abundant vegetation and correspondingly a large natural carbon tank and vertical carbon input, and low industrialization degree and correspondingly small horizontal and vertical carbon outputs in Guangyuan, 3) the post-earthquake reconstruction led to a series of impacts on carbon cycle, from both aspects of amount and structure, and 4) such impacts of post-earthquake construction on artificial carbon cycle were distinct with a tendency toward low-carbon development in Guangyuan. The results were helpful for investigating the effects of natural disturbance and human interference on urban carbon cycle, which in turn could improve the adaptation to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]