Search

Limiting the negative effects of human-induced global warming is the focus of climate policy worldwide. In the European Union (EU), the target for reaching carbon neutrality is set to 2050, including a proposed renewable energy target of 45% for 2030. In Finland, the government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions already by 2035, which is expected to require large increases in wind and nuclear capacity, as well as sector coupling with, e.g., transport and heating. In view of these plans, this study evaluates the feasibility of attaining carbon neutrality in Finland by 2035, while considering delays from potential bottlenecks, such as limited raw material availability, fuel availability, manufacturing capacity, and import reliance. The literature review highlights the considerable dependence of renewable technologies on critical raw materials and other minerals, largely imported from non-EU countries. Modelling revealed how increased biomass usage considerably reduces the size of national carbon sinks, vital for reaching net-zero emissions in Finland in the coming decade. In light of this, current climate strategy was shown to be partially outdated and short of reaching carbon neutrality by 2035, already without including potential delays from the analyzed bottlenecks. Subsequently, alternative measures to improve sustainability and reduce emissions are presented. The findings of this paper are also relevant for other countries aiming to reach net-zero emissions, especially for those which have climate strategies emphasizing bioenergy and wind power. [Display omitted] • Raw material and manufacturing bottlenecks can delay renewable implementation. • Maintaining carbon sinks critical for climate neutral Finland in 2035. • Limits to biomass usage are needed, but result in adverse industrial impacts. • Further nuclear capacity needed for 2035 climate target and electricity sufficiency. • Finland will rely on electricity imports in 2035, despite plans to become exporter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, due to the greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate variation and weather warming, the power generation is one of the most important issues for reviewing the regulations, applying the restrictions, and offering various solutions to solve the mentioned problems. One of the proposed solutions is the applying of Energy Policies (EPs) aimed at promoting renewable energy sources. The effectiveness of these policies in increasing the penetration rate of renewable energy sources is obvious. However, the effects of these policies on the total social welfare are not assessed till now. The overall welfare includes the profits of the production company of the renewable energy sources and the surplus welfare of subscribers. In this paper, the results of the implementation of a well–known policy as quota obligation with tradable Green Certificates (GCs) and its effect on the surplus welfare are studied, based on the product development planning. To obtain the paper aims, the desired EP is combined with the problem of product development planning, and a comprehensive model for development planning is presented from the perspective of a production company. The model is implemented in the form of a Mixed Integer Non–Linear Problem (MINLP) in the GAMS optimization software using the BARON optimizer. Also, for solving the problem, two different scenarios as without policy of quota obligation and with it, are considered. The social welfare is evaluated by the Virtual Price Index (VPI). The results show that the surplus welfare of the subscribers increase in the long term horizon, while it was lower than the profit of the production company at short term analysis. Besides, with applying the policy of quota obligation with tradable GCs, not only the penetration of the renewable energy sources increased (more than 60%), but also the surplus welfare increased more than 107 $. In the second scenario, the price of production is decreased and the number of cleaner sources is increased. • Applying the Energy policy into cleaner production development planning. • Analysis of surplus welfare in two scenarios, with and without of the desired EP. • Using of MINLP, to solve the problem by consideration of different constraints. • Propose index to study the net profit of production company in various years. • The results show increment of cleaner sources promotion, profit and social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]