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Taiwan's per capita carbon emissions ranks first in Asia. Whether Taiwan's current "2025 Non-Nuclear Homeland" energy transition policy can achieve the goal of greenhouse gas reduction is an issue that needs to be studied urgently. On the basis of studying the status quo of energy supply and demand and carbon emissions in Taiwan, this paper first uses an econometric model to predict Taiwan's energy demand from 2021 to 2030, and then uses a Markov chain model to predict its energy structure changes and CO 2 emission trends under different scenarios, and evaluates the impact of its energy transition policies on carbon emission reduction goals. On this basis, by comparing the carbon trading markets on both sides of the Taiwan strait, the feasibility of and obstacles to the cross-strait cooperation in the carbon trading market are discussed in depth, and the opportunities for future cross-strait cooperation in the carbon trading market are proposed innovatively. The empirical results of this paper show that the carbon emissions in 2025 under the energy transition policy will be reduced by 59.8–61.1 million tons compared with those without planning constraints, but compared with the carbon reduction target (a reduction of 124.8–133 million tons), there is still a long way to go. The contribution potential of the annual carbon emission reduction target is only 45.9%–47.9%, and the contribution potential in 2030 is 57.2%–60.1%. The current "2025 Non-Nuclear Homeland" policy is not in line with Taiwan's current reality, and it is difficult to achieve the expected carbon reduction goal. In order to realize the energy transition in Taiwan in the future, it is necessary to make overall planning of energy policies, explore the cross-strait power cooperation model, and gradually try to build a cross-strait carbon trading market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]