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A good risk warning model is an effective way to guarantee the stable operation of the carbon market and exert its emission reduction function. This paper takes the China's pilot carbon market as the research object and measures the carbon market risk by ARMA-GARCH-VaR. Then, influential factors are selected as non-market characteristics from the perspective of causality and incorporated into the risk warning model, and SMOTE and SMOTEENN are introduced to deal with the unbalanced samples. Results show that (1) The risk fluctuations of Beijing and Shenzhen carbon market are large, and the risk fluctuations of Guangdong carbon market are relatively smooth in the early period and larger in the recent period. (2) Air quality, average daily temperature, CSI 300, power coal, natural gas, European carbon market, exchange rate, and Baidu index are all important factors in the risk volatility of carbon market. (3) The Classification Decision Tree (CDT) has the best performance. CDT has the best performance in Guangdong carbon market, SMOTE-CDT has the best performance in Hubei carbon market, and SMOTEENN-CDT has the best performance in Shanghai carbon market, in which SMOTEENN-CDT has a 76% Recall. The non-equilibrium treatment improves the overall Recall, and the risk warning model after non-equilibrium treatment can avoid missing important risk points. This paper can provide a certain degree of reference for the improvement of carbon trading market and risk management. [Display omitted] • A carbon market warning model is constructed. • The average VaR of the carbon trading markets in Shenzhen and Beijing is larger. • CDT performs better in market risk warning. • The model improves 34.8% in the avoidance of risk compared with other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the carbon compensation mechanism as a tool to promote coordinated economic and environmental development in China's Jing-Jin-Ji region (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei). A novel approach for calculating carbon compensation cost that integrate emission responsibility as well as carbon abatement cost through a bi-level programming model is proposed. Shared producer and consumer responsibility is established for carbon emissions under the multi-regional input-output model. Marginal abatement costs of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei are further calculated through the input-output and linear programming method. Results highlight that the emission responsibility allocation method significantly affects the inter-regional carbon compensation amount. The production-based approach leads to a 77% reduction of carbon compensation amount from Beijing to Hebei, and a 170% overestimation from Tianjin to Hebei compared with the shared responsibility approach in 2060. The optimal carbon compensation unit cost ranges from 1539 to 6438 yuan/ton when the carbon reduction ratio ranges from 10% to 20%. Beijing would compensate Hebei 3.56 and 29.74 billion yuan for achieving 10% and 20% emission reduction, respectively. Similarly, Tianjin's compensation for Hebei would be 0.23 and 1.87 billion yuan in the two scenarios. Results further show that implementing the proposed carbon compensation mechanism can reduce total abatement cost by 43% and 84% in Jing-Jin-Ji under the two scenarios. The methods and results of this paper could help inform future carbon compensation implementation in China and other countries. • Develop a bi-level programming model to determine optimal carbon compensation cost. • Consider emission responsibility and carbon abatement cost in Jing-Jin-Ji. • Resulting mechanism reduces abatement cost by 43% for 10% emission reduction. • Production-based allocation underestimates carbon compensation amount by 62%. • Optimal carbon compensation unit cost changes with marginal abatement cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban green spaces are increasingly recognized for their positive impact on well-being, quality of life, and public health. Researchers have explored how green space characteristics, such as size, theme, and convenience, influence urban movement. However, an important aspect that has received limited attention is the relative attractiveness of green spaces. When residents have access to similar green spaces nearby, their inclination to visit more distant ones decreases. This leads to the central research question: How does the relative attractiveness of urban green spaces affect urban movements? The existing literature lacks a comprehensive theory to address this question. To bridge this gap, this paper introduces the Potential to Kinetic Energy (PKE) framework, inspired by principles from physics. In this framework, potential energy represents the relative attractiveness of green spaces between the travel origin and destination, while kinetic energy signifies the urban movement resulting from the this attractiveness. To demonstrate the PKE framework's applicability, this paper analyzes green space data and smart card subway ridership records from Beijing. The results show that a unit increase in size, cultural, attraction, proximity, and location potential energy is associated with a 0.22%, 0.27%, 0.14%, 0.19%, and 0.02% increase in urban movement. The findings provide compelling evidence for the significant role of relative attractiveness in shaping urban movements and offer valuable insights for urban planning and policy development. The proposal of the PKE framework encourages interdisciplinary discussions among urban planners, environmental scientists, and transportation experts, fostering collaborative efforts to enhance the sustainability of cities. • A Potential to Kinetic Energy (PKE) framework is introduced to investigate the relationship between green space attractiveness and urban movements. • Potential energy contains five sub-concepts: size, culture, attraction, proximity and location. • Kinetic energy represents urban movement that characterizes the motion of objects resulting from potential energy conversion. • Empirical analysis of Beijing shows the significant role of relative green space attractiveness in shaping urban movement patterns. • The PKE framework supports urban planners to evaluate green space attractiveness, examine the impact of landscape change, and promote inclusive urban environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sewer pipes health and failure consequences evaluation are vital to ensure the safety of urban sewer networks. Sewer pipes with low health and severe failure consequences should be the primary focus of daily maintenance and management for drainage authorities. Conversely, sewer pipes with high health and low failure consequences are temporarily not a primary concern, in order to reduce resource wastage within the constraints of limited economic and time resources. Thus, the scientific analysis of their relationships is deemed essential. This paper applies supply-demand balance theory to analyze the relationship. On the supply side, a health Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation model (HFCE) is proposed with weighted hierarchies established. On the demand side, a failure consequences FCE model (FFCE) is established. Each sewer pipe's supply-demand balance score is analyzed using matrix multiplication, highlighting two types of imbalanced pipes and sub-districts. Taking the Liangshui River Basin in Beijing as an example, the results show that the health evaluation can identify the spatial distribution of the health of sewer pipes, with low health levels V and IV accounting for 10.23 % and 4.43 %, respectively. The failure consequences evaluation can evaluate the spatial distribution of the severity of sewer pipe failure consequences, with high failure consequences levels V and IV respectively accounting for 10.97 % and 16.77 %. The supply-demand balance analysis identifies the proportion of the first and second types of imbalanced pipes, respectively 14.24 % and 6.80 %. This method, by analyzing the relationship of health and failure consequences, provides a decision-making basis for drainage authorities to prioritize sewer pipe operation management, repair, and maintenance. • Supply-demand balance to identify the relationship of health and failure consequences. • DEMATEL optimized AHP calculated weights by considering inter-indicator relationships. • Improved health evaluation via hydraulic metrics in drainage models, enhancing accuracy. • Identifying low(high) health/high(low) failure consequences areas for drainage authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]