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To address the global challenge of climate change and achieve sustainable development, decarbonizing the electric power system in China is considered the most imperative since the power sector is highly related to the decarbonization of other sectors. Significantly, China faces the dual challenges of rapidly growing electricity demand coupling with its commitment to of emission mitigation. This study examines the low-carbon transition and sustainable development of China's power system through 2035 using a multi-stage mixed-integer linear programming generation planning model by matching future demand growth trajectories with the least-cost power supply path. The electric power installed capacity, power generation, carbon emission, power-generating cost, and abatement potentials are analyzed through various scenarios. It is found that China's electricity demand will reach 9800–13300 Terawatt-hours in 2035 due to rapid electrification. Every 1 TWh increase in electricity demand requires 0.41–0.53 GW of newly installed capacity. Reducing the proportion of coal-fired power generation and replacing it with renewable energy is inevitable. However, for every 1 GW of coal power retired, 3.7 GW of renewable energy needs to be built. Incorporating electricity demand-side management is crucial to developing an effective decarbonization pathway for China's power sector, along with inclusive policies and technologies to meet China's requirements for dependable, affordable, and sustainable electricity. The results of this paper can provide a reference for policy makers in China as well as other emerging economies. • China's electricity consumption will continue to rise until 2035 and China will reach emission peak of power sector before 2030. • Meeting China's decarbonization requires gradually reducing coal-fired power capacity by up to the year 2020's 40.5% ty. • Every 1 GW of coal-power retirement requires the construction of 3.7 GW of renewable power capacity. • Demand-side management is crucial to easing high electricity demands for an effective power decarbonization trajectory in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposed a model-based framework to optimize the energy-water-emissions nexus (EWEN) for regional electric power system (EPS) planning. The framework integrated the superiority of bi-level programming (BLP), two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), mix-integer programming (MIP), interval parameter programming (IPP) models and carbon emission trading (CET) mechanism, which could effectively deal with the planning problems in the EWEN optimization process. BLP helped decision makers make leader-follower choices when they have conflicting preferences. TSP with IPP could validly address the uncertain information expressed as interval values with unknown distribution. MIP was introduced as an efficacious tool to evaluate the capacity expansion potential in EPS. CET mechanism was applied to reinforce the CO 2 mitigation effect during the EWEN optimization process. Then the proposed framework was applied into a case study in Shanxi Province, a main thermal power base in China to optimize the EWEN. Results indicated that the power supply structure was inclined to show a low-carbon transition trend in the planning periods. Meanwhile, coupled with the strict water conservation policy, every 5% reduction in carbon emission density would lead to an average decreasing rate of 8% for SO 2 , 3% for NOx and 12% for PM. This study may help provide an effective way to deal with planning problems with conflicting and sequential goals under uncertainty and make better tradeoff strategies in EWEN optimization in EPS. • Propose a stochastic leader-follower framework for energy-water-emission nexus. • Control uncertainty by the combination of TSP and with IPP. • Interactions of CO 2 emissions and air pollution emissions are revealed. • Introduce CET mechanism to help improve the CO 2 mitigation effect. • The empirical results demonstrate the excellent performance of the framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric power is the foundation of the development of national economy, it is necessary to make a comprehensive evaluation of its development. Firstly, 17 secondary electric power development evaluation indexes are established from four aspects: electricity supply, electricity consumption, electrification level and carbon emission. Secondly, based on the cloud model, the subjective evaluation and analysis of the primary evaluation index for the national electric power development are realized. Then, the entropy method is used to objectively evaluate and analyze the secondary evaluation index of national electric power development. And the objective evaluation value of the primary evaluation index for the national electric power development is obtained. Thirdly, the TOPSIS method is used to integrate the subjective evaluation value obtained by the cloud model and the objective evaluation value obtained by the entropy method to comprehensively evaluate the status of national electricity development. Next, by collecting the electric power development evaluation index data of 11 typical countries, the electric power development of 11 countries was evaluated and analyzed by using the CM-EM-TOPSIS method proposed in this paper. From the results of the comprehensive evaluation of China 's electric power development, it is found that compared with other countries, the sensitivity of the queueing indicator value to the subjective evaluation weight is lower in China. Finally, according to the results of comprehensive evaluation and analysis of electric power development, the managerial implication is explored in China. • A comprehensive evaluation index system for national electric power development is established. • Cloud model is used to convert the subjective evaluation value of the primary evaluation index. • The secondary evaluation index of national electric power development is evaluated and analyzed by entropy method. • A national electric power development comprehensive evaluation method based on CM-EM-TOPSIS is proposed. • The current status of electricity power development in 11 typical countries is evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]