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Carbon emissions elimination in the rapid urbanization areas contributes to regional sustainable development and global climate change mitigation. With the target of carbon neutrality, the global top-class Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration which confronts with the dual pressure of excess carbon emissions and shrink ecological space has increased its carbon reduction coordination cooperation, among which energy consumption carbon emission control and natural resource sink maintenance have been recognized as the key strategy. However, the study on carbon balance prediction is lack and the amount of energy consumption carbon emissions in the future can be offset by the ecological carbon sink is still unknown. To estimate the gap to carbon neutrality, this study proposes a framework for carbon offset analysis and prediction which takes various carbon emission scenarios and the potential of natural resource on carbon reduction into consideration. After the framework conduction in the agglomeration, it is revealed that the regional least carbon emissions of 29.51 Mt mainly derive from the population and economic growth brought by urbanization process, while the carbon sink predicted to be 2552.31 Kt is still far to cover the emissions. With the regional carbon offset rate decline from 0.68% to 0.63%, the ecological carbon sink in Beijing will offset 1.21% of its carbon emission, while the least ecological space keep city Tianjin is predicted to suffer the lowest offset rate of 0.09%. The research results contribute to recognize the key factors on carbon emission control and key areas for carbon maintenance in following years, as well as narrowing the gap to neutrality with both consideration of carbon emission reduction and sink maintenance. [Display omitted] • Framework on energy consumption carbon offset analysis was established. • Regional carbon emissions, sinks and offset rate were predicted. • Drop from 0.68% in 2020 to 0.63% in 2030, the declining offset rate indicates the gap to neutrality is still large. • Implications for each area's carbon emission offset rate improvement were discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy consumption is a crucial aspect of global sustainability efforts, particularly in light of climate change mitigation and the pursuit of energy security. Technological innovation can play a pivotal role in driving the advancement and adoption of renewable energy. However, geopolitical risks can exert profound influences on the landscape of renewable energy deployment, posing challenges to energy security and the transition to a sustainable energy future. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing new empirical evidence on how geopolitical risk, along with technological innovation, environmental taxes, and environmental degradation affect renewable energy consumption in G7 countries. The findings indicate that geopolitical risks exert a negative influence on renewable energy consumption in G7 countries, whereas environmental degradation, technological advancements, and environmental taxes have positive effects. The results further indicate that at different quantile levels, the impact of each variable on renewable energy consumption has heterogeneous characteristics. Panel Grager causality results revealed a one-way causal relationship between environmental taxes and renewable energy consumption, while other variables have a two-way causal relationship with renewable energy consumption. Based on the results, the study suggests design policies to address geopolitical tension, increased funding for research and development to drive technological innovation, and supportive regulatory frameworks that incentivize renewable energy investment and innovation to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7). • Explored the determinants of renewable energy consumption in G7 countries. • Advanced panel data estimation methods are employed. • Geopolitical risk negatively affects renewable energy consumption. • Technological innovation and taxes promote renewable energy consumption. • Designed a policy framework to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adaptation and mitigation remain critical to achieving sustainable development while reducing climate vulnerability, particularly among climate-exposed and sensitive regions. Yet, achieving a balance between climate-resilience pathways, high economic productivity, high human development, and energy efficiency appears complex, leading to potential trade-offs. Here, we examine the overarching effect of the diversified energy portfolio, socio-economic drivers, and governance adaptation readiness on Climate change vulnerability across 212 economies. Contrary to the poor conventional panel techniques reported in the existing literature, we employ novel machine learning and dynamic panel estimation techniques that control for chaos, nonlinearity, mutual coupling, and heterogeneity in dynamic systems. The convergent cross-mapping causality technique reveals mutual coupling effects between energy portfolio, governance readiness, socio-economic drivers, and climate change vulnerability. The rapidly increasing population and increasing demand for resources under the business-as-usual society and economic structure that normalizes unsustainable development pathways due to weak governance structures create ineffective climate-resilient policies that lead to unabated emissions with consequences on climate change. The effect of social and governance readiness leads the transformation process to attain sustainable development. Thus, high social and governance readiness spurs climate resilience through climate change adaptation and mitigation to achieve sustainable development. Alternative (renewables) and nuclear energy have displacement effects on fossil fuels, yet, the magnitude of displacement is not large enough to replace future fossil fuel consumption. Conversely, a low-carbon future is still attainable by replacing the fossil energy portfolio with more natural gas and carbon-abatement technologies. Our study demonstrates that energy innovations are useful climate-resilience pathways that lessen climate change vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future projections indicate an expansion for both food and energy demands, which can increase pressure on land use, while there is an urgent global need for climate change mitigation. Bioenergy is foreseen as key option to meet future energy demands and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, however its sustainability depends on locations and regional characteristics. Simultaneously, agricultural production models that co-produce food, feed, and energy offer sustainability synergies and co-benefits, but site-specific sustainability assessments of their large-scale implementation are missing. This study presents a bottom-up approach to assess spatially explicit sustainability aspects of bioenergy-livestock integrated systems (BLI) in Brazil and shed light on their contribution to future energy demands, to climate change mitigation targets, and their impacts on selected ecosystem services, including bioenergy production, climate change mitigation, reduction of food competition, biodiversity conservation, and avoided deforestation. The proposed integration considers livestock intensification and use of biofuels by-products as animal feed supplement, taking advantage of synergies between these two value chains. The expansion of the BLI system in the Center-South region of Brazil produce up to 89 billion liters of ethanol, enough to meet future domestic ethanol demands from multiple shared socioeconomic pathways and generating surpluses for export. This production takes place on 16 million hectares of pastureland within the Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning, excluding the Amazon and Pantanal biomes, and biodiversity hotspots. BLI expansion mitigate up to 250 million tonnes of CO 2 eq and generate 15 billion dollars of profits. The best locations to maximize the selected ecosystem services are west of São Paulo, east of Mato Grosso do Sul, and the south-central region of the states of Goiás. This study may encourage the formulation of enhanced public policies for the integration of bioenergy and livestock value chains and guide a sustainable large-scale deployment of BLI systems. • Bioenergy and livestock integration (BLI): co-production of food, feed and energy. • BLI systems: 89 billion liters of ethanol and 250 million tonnes of CO 2 eq mitigated. • Enough ethanol to meet future Brazilian demands and surplus to be exported. • Biomass expansion only on pastureland inside Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning. • Without land displacement and deforestation of native vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decarbonization of urban water systems has been increasingly important for addressing the target of climate change mitigation. Yet, little insight has been derived regarding how water use and energy transition policies jointly alter climate impact of water systems in cities. In this study, using 21 cities in Guangdong Province (China) as a case study, we account for the carbon dioxide emissions related to energy use in urban water systems (UWSs) over 2006–2035. By constructing a city-scale water-carbon nexus model, we project future trajectories of electricity-related CO 2 emissions in UWSs by considering dynamics of water demand and varying pathways of energy transition. We show that increasing need of tap water purification is a main contributor to electricity-related CO 2 emissions, followed by tap water distribution and wastewater treatment. The electricity-related CO 2 emissions in most cities could peak before 2030 under a fast-decarbonization energy transition pathway, despite the rise of urban water demand. Fast-urbanizing cities like Foshan, Shantou and Qingyuan may witness a 4–23% increase of emissions between 2020 and 2035. With a more rapid increase of proportion of cleaner energies in electricity mix, the fast-decarbonization pathway could end up with 21% more reduction of emissions on average during 2020–2035, compared to currently-planned energy transition pathway. Under the stringent climate goal of China, cities should foster a joint mechanism between water system and grid companies that leads to a more effective low-carbon governance of water systems. [Display omitted] • We project carbon peaks in UWSs under varying energy transition pathways. • Tap water purification is a main contributor to CO 2 emissions in UWSs. • Fast-urbanizing cities may further increase their emissions during 2020–2035. • Fast-decarbonization pathway would mean 21% more reduction of emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency in buildings remains an important priority for the European Union. Towards that direction, therole of the one-stop-shops (OSSs) that will offer integrated renovation services has been further enhanced. Thepaper aims to compare public and private-driven OSSs to increase knowledge regarding the way they operate.The business models of ten OSSs for renovation of residential buildings, operating in six European countries havebeen analysed, and further evaluated for their engagement in the critical moments of the renovation customerjourney. Findings show that the majority of examined OSSs have managed to reach some level of standardizationin the way they deliver their service. Additionally, the examined OSSs appear to be engaged in the critical momentsof the renovation customer journey, which can attract the interest of potential customers. Public-drivenOSSs appear to operate smoother in the renovation market and offer services that are considered crucial for theirpotential customers. Their viability though in the absence of public funding needs to be further examined. On theother hand, private-driven OSSs are called to deal with greater challenges in their effort to consolidate their presencein the renovation market. Providing access to financing remains a challenge for private-driven OSSs, whichto attract more customers resort to value additions to their service, which might affect their viability. The studyprovides valuable information and insights about OSSs in operation that could be useful to stakeholders that areactive in the renovation market or interested to enter it. • Analysis of ten one-stop-shop business models for residential building renovations operating in six European countries. • Operational modality of public and private driven OSSs has been critically reviewed and compared. • Public-driven OSSs appear to operate smoother in the renovation market offering services that are considered crucial by customers. • Private-driven OSSs are dealing with greater challenges in trying to consolidate their presence in the renovation market. • Private-driven OSS build trust with their customers by engaging in specific "critical moments" of the renovation journey and by adding value to their service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world needs to rapidly reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission to stave off the risks of disastrous climate change. In particular, decarbonizing U.S. manufacturing industries is particularly challenging due to the specific process requirements. This study estimates the potential for future CO 2 emission reductions in this important sector. The analysis is a detailed accounting exercise that relies on estimates of emission-reduction potential from other studies and applies those potentials to the manufacturing sector using a bottom-up approach. The actions are grouped into four "pillars" that support deep decarbonization of manufacturing (DDM): Energy Efficiency, Material Efficiency, Industry-Specific, and Power Grid. Based on this bottom-up approach, the analysis shows that an 86% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from the Reference Case is feasible. No single pillar dominates DDM, although opportunities vary widely by sub-sector. The analysis shows that a strategy incorporating a broad set of elements from each pillar can be effective instead of relying on any single pillar. Some pillars, such as Energy Efficiency and Material Efficiency, have wide applicability; others have key niche roles that are Industry-Specific; the Power Grid pillar requires interaction between grid decarbonization and industry action to switch from fossil fuels to zero-carbon electricity where appropriate. [Display omitted] • Four technological strategies ("pillars") for deep decarbonization of U.S. manufacturing are investigated. • Seven energy-intensive and one non-energy-intensive industries are examined separately. • An 86% reduction in energy related CO 2 emissions is feasible in U.S. manufacturing by 2050. • No single pillar dominates implying a diversified approach to decarbonization is needed. • Some emissions remain in select industries, in particular chemicals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of energy use on the planet due to related CO 2 emissions is continuously increasing, despite the adoption of efficiency and decarbonisation policies and widespread environmental awareness. Climate change mitigation will only succeed if the driving forces of consumption and emissions are deeply analysed, and effective means are provided to reverse their trends. To this aim, the Kaya Identity framework is revisited to classify indicators and decomposition studies in the literature. A comprehensive pyramid approach is proposed for the progressive disaggregation and discussion of energy and emissions changes. The approach is applied to the OECD and non-OECD to provide meaningful regional analysis of past trends and future projections according to stated policy intentions. Results show that a hopeful change has already begun in the developed region due to a sustained decrease of the energy intensity and a promising reduction of the carbon intensity. Emerging economies follow the performance of developed nations since 2013, held back by later economic development. Activity slowdown, energy conservation, renewable electrification, efficient power plants and coal phase out appear as the keystones for decarbonisation. As a result, emissions stabilisation could have already been achieved as rises in emerging countries are offset by drops in developed nations. However, more stringent climate policies, especially targeting carbon drivers, are urgently needed to enable emissions reductions compatible with a global temperature increase of 1.5°C. • Classification of indicators and studies in the framework of Kaya Identity. • Definition of an Emissions Indicators Pyramid for analyses standardisation. • Activity slowdown and cleaner electricity drive emissions drop in the OECD since 2007. • Hopeful efficiency and carbon intensity changes in developing nations since 2013. • Energy intensity must be halved and carbon intensity quartered in 2040. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transport sector plays a decisive role in climate change mitigation, especially in cities, as it significantly contributes to global resource and energy consumption. Hence, decarbonising this sector is increasingly recognized as an important means of mitigating climate change, which is reflected in numerous smart city initiatives. However, existing studies thereon have focused almost exclusively on energy and CO 2 , thereby neglecting the consumption of material resources required to transform urban transport systems so as to be compatible with a low carbon future. In this study, we hence investigate the effects of transforming urban transport systems on future material stock and material flows using the city of Vienna as a case study. For this purpose, a material flow analysis for the infrastructure and vehicles required until 2050 has been conducted taking different scenarios into consideration, which are mainly characterized by different modal splits. The results show that different paths of development among the various transport modes significantly affect the overall material stocks and flows. If the modal split remains constant, the road-infrastructure has to be further expended to provide the transport service needed due to the expected increase in population in Vienna. The material stock per capita for the transport system remains constant at around 54 t/capita for this scenario. If the motorized individual transport can be reduced to a share of less than 10% of all trips (today's share amounts to 25%), the material stock per capita decreases to around 47 t/capita in 2050. As this case allows for infrastructure (e.g. parking infrastructure, road lanes) to be dismantled, the annual material demand for maintenance efforts is also reduced by a fifth (to 460 kg/cap/yr). Despite the reduction in material stocks and flows achievable by changing the current modal split, a significant change in the waste composition in terms of the end-of-life vehicles generated is to be expected in the coming decades. Annual quantities of old batteries, for instance, might rise from today's 1.5 kg/capita up to 70 kg/capita. These changes will definitely challenge the waste management sector, but also represent an opportunity for the recovery of valuable resources. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the transformation of an urban transport system towards lower greenhouse gas emissions also has the potential to reduce future material demand and waste generation. However, this requires a change in the modal split, whereas solely moving to a fossil-free vehicle fleet has the contrary effect. • The future material turnover of the transport system in Vienna is calculated. • The modelled transport scenarios differ in terms of their respective modal split. • The development of the private vehicle fleet is significant for the material stock. • A switch to fossil-free vehicles as a single measure increases the material demand. • A reorganisation of the transport system reduces the annual material demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mitigation of climate change is the main issue for environmental policymakers. A large number of authors analysed the impact of various factors on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this paper, we proposed a multiplicative approach to use 2- and 3-way interactions simultaneously in order to analyse the effects of energy efficiency, renewable energy and sector mix as the moderators that shape the economic activity – environmental degradation nexus. The results encompassing global panel data show that the turning point increased from 1990 to 1995 to 2002–2007 and decreased afterwards. Considering the analysis of moderators, a high share of agriculture and industry sectors make the curve flat with a positive slope and a high level of economic activity was associated with more GHG emissions with no turning point. The marginal effect of energy efficiency to reduce the negative impact of agriculture and industry sectors was growing. Meanwhile, the marginal effect of renewables to reduce the negative impact of agriculture and industry sectors was diminishing. Service sector and energy efficiency, service sector and renewables worked as the substituting forces reducing GHG emissions with a diminishing marginal rate of substitution. Therefore, this study confirms that the economic activity – environmental degradation relationship is very complex and further studies should consider the role of the moderators of this nexus. [Display omitted] • Technique, composition effects should be considered as moderators of HGH emissions. • The multiplicative approach was applied to model interactions of GHG factors. • Agriculture, industry sectors made the economic activity GHG emissions curve flat. • Marginal effect of renewables to reduce GHG emissions was diminishing. • Service sector and renewables worked as substituting forces reducing emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]